Trae / No Trae........Defense / No Defense......Historical figures and more...

[REHawksFan]

Sorry, I have no idea what to title this post.  

I was thinking about the ongoing conversation around Trae or No Trae and how each scenario impacts the Offense and Defense and it got me thinking about whether we could have a league average D with Trae at the PG.  I was also intrigued by the thought that the biggest issue with the Hawks has been the demise of the C position and, specifically, Clint's rapid decline.  So I went back and looked at some historical numbers and here's what I found.  I'll present the data for discussion and then maybe add some commentary at the end. 

This shows where the Hawks ranked in pts per game, per 100 poss, in pace, and in Reb% and where Clint ranked in Reb%, Blocks, Def FG% allowed, and FG% Differential.  For Clint, I used minimum of 50 games in each season.  The highlighted season is both the ECF run and Clint's first season as a Hawk. 

On the chart above, the Pace jumped out at me so I charted the pace vs DRtg over each of Trae's 6 seasons.  Here's that chart:

 

Unsurprisingly, the Hawks are horrible defensively when playing with pace.  Now look at this:

This chart is from this year.  With Trae, they play at the 3rd fasted pace in the NBA.  Without, the they play at the 9th slowest pace.  I know there are other variables like injuries to other players and smaller sample size, but the numbers are pretty glaring to me.  Interestingly, the ORtg stays about the same relative to the rest of the NBA.  It's just the DRtg that plummets when we play fast.  

So now I'll point back to the green highlighted line in the first chart.  In the ECF run year, the Hawks, led by Trae and ELITE Center play by Clint, had the 8th slowest pace and ranked 18th in DRtg, essentially the same as this year when slowing things down.  Also, in the ECF year with the slower pace, they still managed to rank 9th in ORtg.  And that was with Trae still learning and growing as an offensive player.  

It seems to me that if we can get elite center play and then slow the pace down a bit, we could hit the happy middle ground of Elite Offense and Average Defense.  

 

Edited March 27 by REHawksFan

[Diesel]

I think you have shown a lot of terminus stats with views on a few players... but there are other factors at work too.  It's easiest to yell small sample size. However, we have to consider the following when it comes to our defensive improvement:

1.  Buy in from players. 
2. The bounce in defense we get from Bruno playing instead of OO. 
3. The bounce in defense we get from not playing Saddique and JJ at the wings. 

 

We have players like Vit, Kobe, etc who have come up from the G-League who have a better understanding of Quin's system and are more willing to run it.  As our players continue in this path, I believe that they (DeAndre, Garrison, Bogi, etc) are more willing to play the system than they are to revert back to isoball. Clint's decline is apparent, but there are some nights like last night where he shows up major.  Clint has never been on the wrong side of defensive play, but we have put him out there with a lot of defensively green players like JJ, Saddiq and OO. 

For things to work better, we need a guy who can play the 5, score, and get rebounds.  None of us wanted to deal with the headcase called Ayton, but Ayton's skillset is what we need to make our current configuration work best.   We should consider that as we draft. 

[NBASupes]

13 hours ago, REHawksFan said:

Sorry, I have no idea what to title this post.  

I was thinking about the ongoing conversation around Trae or No Trae and how each scenario impacts the Offense and Defense and it got me thinking about whether we could have a league average D with Trae at the PG.  I was also intrigued by the thought that the biggest issue with the Hawks has been the demise of the C position and, specifically, Clint's rapid decline.  So I went back and looked at some historical numbers and here's what I found.  I'll present the data for discussion and then maybe add some commentary at the end. 

This shows where the Hawks ranked in pts per game, per 100 poss, in pace, and in Reb% and where Clint ranked in Reb%, Blocks, Def FG% allowed, and FG% Differential.  For Clint, I used minimum of 50 games in each season.  The highlighted season is both the ECF run and Clint's first season as a Hawk. 

On the chart above, the Pace jumped out at me so I charted the pace vs DRtg over each of Trae's 6 seasons.  Here's that chart:

 

Unsurprisingly, the Hawks are horrible defensively when playing with pace.  Now look at this:

This chart is from this year.  With Trae, they play at the 3rd fasted pace in the NBA.  Without, the they play at the 9th slowest pace.  I know there are other variables like injuries to other players and smaller sample size, but the numbers are pretty glaring to me.  Interestingly, the ORtg stays about the same relative to the rest of the NBA.  It's just the DRtg that plummets when we play fast.  

So now I'll point back to the green highlighted line in the first chart.  In the ECF run year, the Hawks, led by Trae and ELITE Center play by Clint, had the 8th slowest pace and ranked 18th in DRtg, essentially the same as this year when slowing things down.  Also, in the ECF year with the slower pace, they still managed to rank 9th in ORtg.  And that was with Trae still learning and growing as an offensive player.  

It seems to me that if we can get elite center play and then slow the pace down a bit, we could hit the happy middle ground of Elite Offense and Average Defense.  

 

Yep, the answer has always been obvious  

Trae is not a floor general so asking him to play fast as if he's Nash is a mistake. 

But playing a slower pace with Trae is critical that we have a center that makes life easier for Trae otherwise teams are just going to sell out to stopping Trae. 

[NBASupes]

15 minutes ago, Diesel said:

I think you have shown a lot of terminus stats with views on a few players... but there are other factors at work too.  It's easiest to yell small sample size. However, we have to consider the following when it comes to our defensive improvement:

1.  Buy in from players. 
2. The bounce in defense we get from Bruno playing instead of OO. 
3. The bounce in defense we get from not playing Saddique and JJ at the wings. 

 

We have players like Vit, Kobe, etc who have come up from the G-League who have a better understanding of Quin's system and are more willing to run it.  As our players continue in this path, I believe that they (DeAndre, Garrison, Bogi, etc) are more willing to play the system than they are to revert back to isoball. Clint's decline is apparent, but there are some nights like last night where he shows up major.  Clint has never been on the wrong side of defensive play, but we have put him out there with a lot of defensively green players like JJ, Saddiq and OO. 

For things to work better, we need a guy who can play the 5, score, and get rebounds.  None of us wanted to deal with the headcase called Ayton, but Ayton's skillset is what we need to make our current configuration work best.   We should consider that as we draft. 

He always had the right skill-set. It's the motor, drive, work ethic, will, lack of being coachable. It's a lot of Ayton being his own worse enemy 

[Final_quest]

We haven't come close to replicating the stretch where Clint was a DPOY candidate regularly getting 20 20's with 3 blocks, and Bogi shooting 50% from 3.  

[REHawksFan]

3 hours ago, Final_quest said:

We haven't come close to replicating the stretch where Clint was a DPOY candidate regularly getting 20 20's with 3 blocks, and Bogi shooting 50% from 3.  

Clint has fallen off a cliff it seems in terms of impact.  In FG% differential he went from top 30 in the NBA to outside the top 100 between year 1 with the hawks and year 2.  

My point with the above was more that we've gotten proof of concept.  Elite center play and slower pace with Trae at the helm seems like a viable option to play average to above average defense and elite offense, imo.  

[Diesel]

5 hours ago, NBASupes said:

He always had the right skill-set. It's the motor, drive, work ethic, will, lack of being coachable. It's a lot of Ayton being his own worse enemy 

No doubt... that's why nobody wanted to deal with him.. the headcase.. but his skillset, the rebounding, the inside game, the outside game, the ability to play good defense...   On paper, he looks good.   We need that in the player that we bring in to play with Trae. 

 

[Diesel]

22 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

Clint has fallen off a cliff it seems in terms of impact.  In FG% differential he went from top 30 in the NBA to outside the top 100 between year 1 with the hawks and year 2.  

My point with the above was more that we've gotten proof of concept.  Elite center play and slower pace with Trae at the helm seems like a viable option to play average to above average defense and elite offense, imo.  

Clint's elite Center play was backed up by a better defensive team around him.   You can't just look at these things in a vacuum.    Before, we had guys who knew a role and would allow Clint to do his best work.   Moreover, we totally ignore the rebounding that Clint does now.   Right now, we're 21 in reb%.. without Clint, we would be 30th.   We have a team full of guys who won't box out and don't rebound well. 

 

[Final_quest]

22 minutes ago, Diesel said:

Clint's elite Center play was backed up by a better defensive team around him.   You can't just look at these things in a vacuum.    Before, we had guys who knew a role and would allow Clint to do his best work.   Moreover, we totally ignore the rebounding that Clint does now.   Right now, we're 21 in reb%.. without Clint, we would be 30th.   We have a team full of guys who won't box out and don't rebound well. 

 

We started Trae, Huerter, Bogi, and JC.  That was the defense that unlocked Capela?

[REHawksFan]

40 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

We started Trae, Huerter, Bogi, and JC.  That was the defense that unlocked Capela?

Don't forget Gallo and his elite defense coming off the bench.  

Also...

AND

[NBASupes]

1 hour ago, Diesel said:

No doubt... that's why nobody wanted to deal with him.. the headcase.. but his skillset, the rebounding, the inside game, the outside game, the ability to play good defense...   On paper, he looks good.   We need that in the player that we bring in to play with Trae. 

 

Yep. We wanted him as fans but the org got Intel and was like, hell no. Ayton just don't care

[macdaddy]

What are our center targets if we move on from one of our current.  Looking around the league it's hard to see any that would be attainable.  Nic Claxton, Nick Richards, Mitchell Robinson?

[JayBirdHawk]

A healthy, well-conditioned CC really makes a difference.

 

in-season skill development.

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

[RedDawg#8]

But the wins…. We need more of that too, Coach

[TheNorthCydeRises]

On 3/27/2024 at 5:14 PM, REHawksFan said:

Sorry, I have no idea what to title this post.  

I was thinking about the ongoing conversation around Trae or No Trae and how each scenario impacts the Offense and Defense and it got me thinking about whether we could have a league average D with Trae at the PG.  I was also intrigued by the thought that the biggest issue with the Hawks has been the demise of the C position and, specifically, Clint's rapid decline.  So I went back and looked at some historical numbers and here's what I found.  I'll present the data for discussion and then maybe add some commentary at the end. 

This shows where the Hawks ranked in pts per game, per 100 poss, in pace, and in Reb% and where Clint ranked in Reb%, Blocks, Def FG% allowed, and FG% Differential.  For Clint, I used minimum of 50 games in each season.  The highlighted season is both the ECF run and Clint's first season as a Hawk. 

On the chart above, the Pace jumped out at me so I charted the pace vs DRtg over each of Trae's 6 seasons.  Here's that chart:

 

Unsurprisingly, the Hawks are horrible defensively when playing with pace.  Now look at this:

This chart is from this year.  With Trae, they play at the 3rd fasted pace in the NBA.  Without, the they play at the 9th slowest pace.  I know there are other variables like injuries to other players and smaller sample size, but the numbers are pretty glaring to me.  Interestingly, the ORtg stays about the same relative to the rest of the NBA.  It's just the DRtg that plummets when we play fast.  

So now I'll point back to the green highlighted line in the first chart.  In the ECF run year, the Hawks, led by Trae and ELITE Center play by Clint, had the 8th slowest pace and ranked 18th in DRtg, essentially the same as this year when slowing things down.  Also, in the ECF year with the slower pace, they still managed to rank 9th in ORtg.  And that was with Trae still learning and growing as an offensive player.  

It seems to me that if we can get elite center play and then slow the pace down a bit, we could hit the happy middle ground of Elite Offense and Average Defense.  

 

Or .... the coach can tell them to slow down the pace so that they can get quality shots. And the coach can play bigs and forwards who can defend.

Quin has been forced to do that with multiple rotation players out.

Will he do it when everyone is healthy?

[NBASupes]

7 hours ago, Final_quest said:

We started Trae, Huerter, Bogi, and JC.  That was the defense that unlocked Capela?

Lmao, I don't know what Diesel is talking about. We got a way better defensive personnel now. It's too defensive maybe

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

[REHawksFan]

2 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

 

Slower pace seems to suit him will.  And he's still one of the best offensive rebounding bigs in the game.  The slower pace makes those offensive boards and extra possessions even more valuable.  

[JayBirdHawk]

Hawks still need to play with a level of pace to be effective and not always having to play against a set defence - Easy buckets are still important. It doesn't need to be track meet though.