The Most Important Offseason in Recent Hawks History

[AHF]

Now that we have officially ended the season, it is time for Landry to roll up his sleeves because we have major decisions to be made this offseason that will likely set our path for the next 5 years.  

Key Decisions:

(1) Tear down, WLOC, or retool?

1. Tear down is the easiest for me to assess as a terrible and unlikely idea.  If we went this direction, we would be trading players to get picks to rebuild.  I don't think this even works theoretically unless you can get our picks back from SA so this probably involves a trade with SA centered around Trae and/or DJM.  I think this is highly unlikely but would clearly put us on a very different path.
2. WLOC is a very possible path (distressingly likely is another way I might put it).  It involves essentially bringing the band back next year and hoping for development and additions through the draft and FA.  This is the default path so even if we want to retool or want to tear down, if we can't make the deals needed to move onto those paths we will end up in WLOC by default.  WLOC means dealing with serious payroll challenges and basically praying for an injury prone group to have an unprecedented run of good health and perform for a full season the way we did when fully healthy this year.  Granted we were better when fully healthy but even then we weren't great.  This path for me would not offer a lot of optimism.  I would be hoping for Kobe, Gueye, and our 2024 picks to come on ala JJ and that Quin's system would elevate the team over time.  
3. Retool is the path I really want to see.  For me this starts with dealing either Trae or DJM for better fitting talent because I don't think they work together and both should have strong trade value.  Obviously DJM didn't command a worthwhile return at the deadline but I think his second half play should enhance his value as well as teams recognizing how nice his contract looks compared to someone like FVV so I don't rule out the possibility of getting a worthwhile return for either of them.  I do accept that it is much more likely that we won't get back someone with more talent given the lengths to which our front office has undermined our negotiating position with dump deals in recent years (the refusal to trade DJM for a pick and role player dump package is a good thing in this regard). 
   1. I will note that retooling goes beyond just Trae / DJM.  We need to pick a lane at center.  CC's performance is declining over time and OO has not stepped up yet.  I also question whether the team can truly go with Quin-ball while CC is our starting center (and it speaks volumes that Quin didn't start OO this year).  While both remain very useful pieces, I don't think rolling it back at the center spot makes a ton of sense.  At a minimum, adding a developmental big who could step into that mix in the next couple years is needed.  
   2. Given that we don't control our pick for the next 3 years, getting a retool right is essential.  We swing and miss big on a deal and then expect to do what we all want to do. 
   3. I think retooling also makes a ton of sense since we don't have those picks.  If we screw up the the retool, it will slide into a rebuild as our picks come back.  But the way to actually become contenders is to get it right.

It feels to me like all roads lead to a tear down if Landry doesn't get things right the next few years and especially this offseason.  WLOC sounds like a diminishing returns strategy to me which will lead to frustration from our best players and increase the likelihood they will leave while SA owns us.  A failed retool seems like it leads the same direction.  But a well executed retool could propel us into the best shape we've been in for as long as I can remember with the best case scenarios resembling the 60 win Hawks of Bud's peak but with more roster stability.

Landry is going to chart this course and I feel like it is going to be hugely significant to the state of the Hawks for the next 5 years and maybe longer.  This is an inflection point for the franchise.  Fingers are crossed over here.

 

[theheroatl]

I agree. 
 

I just hope that they realize they will need a defense paired with the offense we have. That’s the key. If they went out and replaced half our roster with defensive minded players in the paint and perimeter the results would get better next year.

[Final_quest]

Landry needs to deliver.  He tried to make moves last offseason and trade deadline.  He can’t strike out again this summer.

[KB21]

7 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

Landry needs to deliver.  He tried to make moves last offseason and trade deadline.  He can’t strike out again this summer.

Takes two to tango.  He didn't have a good deal to make before the trade deadline.  It's far worse to make a trade for the sake of making a trade.  

[Afro]

Man I wish I had any faith in Landry. Hopefully he proves me wrong/matures in the role. 

[Final_quest]

7 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Takes two to tango.  He didn't have a good deal to make before the trade deadline.  It's far worse to make a trade for the sake of making a trade.  

I agree but eventually an executive has to make something happen.  No NBA GM can go two years straight saying there was no one willing to trade.  

[KB21]

1 minute ago, Final_quest said:

I agree but eventually an executive has to make something happen.  No NBA GM can go two years straight saying there was no one willing to trade.  

So, what's he supposed to do?  Some jedi mind trick shit to get the Laker's GM to give him more than DeAngelo Russell and picks?

[NekiEcko]

Yes, I must agree that this is the most important offseason that this team will have, and it will shape everything until 2030.

There are three questions that need to be answered before the new season starts.

1.      Trae or Murray:  We have ample time to see them working with each other and with other players formations and the bottom line is that they do not work well together.  Trae needs more defensive and taller players around him while Murray is mostly a 1 in a 2 body.  So yeah, someone must go but which one.  For me the answer is going to shock everyone here, but I believe that both must go (Unless trade one of them will give you what you need).  For Trae, if the FO is not going to get the players that you need him to unlock his true potential, then you can be traded to a team that will do it for him and for Murray, even know that the defense will be better, then we will be lacking in offense.  Sure, it will put us in the rebuild category and we don’t have another rebuild in this team but if you can get good players or pick from them then you don’t have to have to start with empty state.

2.      Front court need to be replaced (except for Johnson):  I am sorry to JJ; I was one of the folks that was hard on him when he was drafted but he has showed that he is going to be a star in this league, and he is going to be one of the cores of this team.  But for everyone from the front court, I don’t see any reason why we should keep them.  CC has some good games, but he probably needs to move on to OO who has been very disappointing even Hunter who continues to disappear when you need him the most.  Right now, I will keep JJ, maybe Bruno or Vit but everyone else should be on the trade block.

3.      What would ownership do:  Bobby Marks may not be my favorite person but what he says was true “You don’t go into the Luxury tax for been a lottery team”.  Must agree with that, they need to be honest about the situation and do what needs to be done.  Even if you must trade Young away and it might hurt your bottom line in sales, but the goal should be clear being NBA Champs and putting a product that we can be all proud of while during deep run into the playoffs.

At the end of the day, I would vouch for a Retool unless we cannot get the players that we want on this team then rebuild will be the best possibility.  Besides if we come out the same team next year then we will just gift the Spurs with a new dynasty because of way this team is, we are just a Play-In/Round 1/Lottery team.

Edited April 18 by NekiEcko

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

[theheroatl]

2 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

 

Unlike the many Trae haters, I actually really really like Trae on a championship team. That’s why the Lakers are drooling over him.

 

however the way the roster was constructed around him with lots of subpar defensive play, it’s been that which created these results.

 

somebody in the front office must have the defensive standings and ratings pulled up… right?

[Afro]

12 minutes ago, KB21 said:

So, what's he supposed to do?  Some jedi mind trick shit to get the Laker's GM to give him more than DeAngelo Russell and picks?

When you word it as "Jedi mind tricks" I'd have to say no lol. 

But I do think it falls somewhere much closer to the middle than you are saying. 

A good GM gets good deals. There are "how the hell did you get that for him?" deals every season. 

 

I'll give an example of what I mean from a previous sales job. The boss man loved to say "This is a sales job. Not a customer service job. If you only make deals with people that do all the work for you, you aren't doing your job". 

 

Does Landry need to Jedi mind trick the Lakers to be a good GM? No. But if he goes every offseason just saying "Argh, nobody wants to give me anything close to reasonable", well, hes not doing his job. He needs to find and negotiate good deals. That is his job. 

 

[NBASupes]

If you trade Murray, you got more flexibility, either land a better finding wing who's under a great contract or similar level player at a different position who cost a crap ton like BI. 

With Trae, you have no flexibility. Either get a legit star like Booker or Mitchell, or don't trade him at all. 

With Trae, you must get an offensive center, with Murray, you must get another legit star at all cost. It's that simply. Those are the priorities. 

[Final_quest]

20 minutes ago, KB21 said:

So, what's he supposed to do?  Some jedi mind trick shit to get the Laker's GM to give him more than DeAngelo Russell and picks?

Not our problem.  GM’s are judged on what actually happens whether it is their fault or not.  But yes, making stuff happen is his job.  

I’m not pointing fingers yet, but stating reality.  Another year with no deals will look really bad for him.  

[JayBirdHawk]

13 minutes ago, Afro said:

No. But if he goes every offseason just saying "Argh, nobody wants to give me anything close to reasonable", well, hes not doing his job. He needs to find and negotiate good deals. That is his job. 

when you start with a mindset that you need to cut salary, teams have you over the barrel.  This is what happened at the deadline with some of these Murray deals.  Wether true or not, the perception was that Hawks were looking for expiring contracts back.  Very unfortunate!

[NekiEcko]

11 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

If you trade Murray, you got more flexibility, either land a better finding wing who's under a great contract or similar level player at a different position who cost a crap ton like BI. 

With Trae, you have no flexibility. Either get a legit star like Booker or Mitchell, or don't trade him at all. 

With Trae, you must get an offensive center, with Murray, you must get another legit star at all cost. It's that simply. Those are the priorities. 

But how can this team do that?  What trade assets can we give up getting an Offensive Center or another star?

Also can you trust this FO to do something like that since we cant trust them? 

[Afro]

2 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

when you start with a mindset that you need to cut salary, teams have you over the barrel.  This is what happened at the deadline with some of these Murray deals.  Wether true or not, the perception was that Hawks were looking for expiring contracts back.  Very unfortunate!

Yup. Plus the "DJ is a malcontent" stuff. I'm not trying to blame it all on Landry by any means, but everyone above Quin has been doing a pretty poor job all around for a while now. The nuance of being a GM is part of the job. You can't be bad at the nuance and then expect zero blame when you don't get the job done. 

They've gotta be better. 

[NBASupes]

1 minute ago, NekiEcko said:

But how can this team do that?  What trade assets can we give up getting an Offensive Center or another star?

Also can you trust this FO to do something like that since we cant trust them? 

Offensive center is obvious, draft Edey. 

The hard one is another star like Booker or Mitchell. 

This team is easy to get back into playoffs. Get Edey. The hard part is getting a legit star for Trae. Murray is the easiest one to move. He improved his value. There are suitors and while the deals aren't great or even that good, it's workable. There are no workable deals for Trae. 

A rebuilding trade doesn't work because we need to add the assets from Trae to our assets but the Murray trade killed that so we can't rebuild. Even a trade with SA is a massive net negative. Not optional. 

2 minutes ago, Afro said:

Yup. Plus the "DJ is a malcontent" stuff. I'm not trying to blame it all on Landry by any means, but everyone above Quin has been doing a pretty poor job all around for a while now. The nuance of being a GM is part of the job. You can't be bad at the nuance and then expect zero blame when you don't get the job done. 

They've gotta be better. 

That's not true. That's obviously not true. Murray loves it here. 

[NBASupes]

33 minutes ago, theheroatl said:

Unlike the many Trae haters, I actually really really like Trae on a championship team. That’s why the Lakers are drooling over him.

 

however the way the roster was constructed around him with lots of subpar defensive play, it’s been that which created these results.

 

somebody in the front office must have the defensive standings and ratings pulled up… right?

I don't think it's been subpar. I just felt we reached for the Murray trade and Capela tires blew out way eariler than we expected and OO wasn't ready to take gear 

[Afro]

1 minute ago, NBASupes said:

Offensive center is obvious, draft Edey. 

The hard one is another star like Booker or Mitchell. 

This team is easy to get back into playoffs. Get Edey. The hard part is getting a legit star for Trae. Murray is the easiest one to move. He improved his value. There are suitors and while the deals aren't great or even that good, it's workable. There are no workable deals for Trae. 

A rebuilding trade doesn't work because we need to add the assets from Trae to our assets but the Murray trade killed that so we can't rebuild. Even a trade with SA is a massive net negative. Not optional. 

That's not true. That's obviously not true. Murray loves it here. 

Not sure if serious or not? I'm not arguing against the actual reality of that statement, but there was definitely "DJ wants out" floating all through the media at the deadline. 

[NBASupes]

Just now, Afro said:

Not sure if serious or not? I'm not arguing against the actual reality of that statement, but there was definitely "DJ wants out" floating all through the media at the deadline. 

That could have been true, the malcontent part is massively false