Holister said: "Regardless of what moves they make, the Hawks will be hard-pressed to win 53 games again, even if Johnson stays."

[sturt]

Another off-season, another national columnist saying we've peaked.

*rolls eyes*

All things being equal, ie, free agents mainly stay in-place (which is the only objective way to measure our roster until we know differently), I think Boston continues to ratchet back down toward the mean... Cleveland and Orlando remain the giants... but we firmly replace Boston as the #3 team in the conference. We're moving into the prime years of Josh, Al, and Marvin. I only expect our win total to grow... largely because as those guys do so, we're bound to lose fewer games that we shouldn't and bound to win more away game than we'd previously won.

Now, given, mathematically, it becomes increasingly difficult to beat the previous season, but winning 53 games isn't so far above .500 that that's a preemptive barrier..

[NJHAWK]

Another off-season, another national columnist saying we've peaked.

*rolls eyes*

All things being equal, ie, free agents mainly stay in-place (which is the only objective way to measure our roster until we know differently), I think Boston continues to ratchet back down toward the mean... Cleveland and Orlando remain the giants... but we firmly replace Boston as the #3 team in the conference. We're moving into the prime years of Josh, Al, and Marvin. I only expect our win total to grow... largely because as those guys do so, we're bound to lose fewer games that we shouldn't and bound to win more away game than we'd previously won.

Now, given, mathematically, it becomes increasingly difficult to beat the previous season, but winning 53 games isn't so far above .500 that that's a preemptive barrier..

If Joe doesnt come back thats bad, real bad. Another key factor will be if the reigns are 100% turned over to Jeff Teague he could have some growing pains.

[sturt]

If Joe doesnt come back thats bad, real bad. Another key factor will be if the reigns are 100% turned over to Jeff Teague he could have some growing pains.

The question Hollister begs is, assume Joe does come back... will the Hawks be "hard-pressed to win 53 games again"... ?

[prolific25]

He's right...but that's not because Woodson was a good coach. It was because the Hawks were the healthiest team in the East.

[shocker_90]

I thought the Hawks were fully capable of winning 56-60 games this year. They let a lot of late leads slip. Why wouldn't they win 53+ games if the team buys into what the new coach is bringing.

[prolific25]

I thought the Hawks were fully capable of winning 56-60 games this year. They let a lot of late leads slip. Why wouldn't they win 53+ games if the team buys into what the new coach is bringing.

I think the fact that none of the starters missed significant amount of time due to injury offsets the blown leads.

[sturt]

I think the fact that none of the starters missed significant amount of time due to injury offsets the blown leads.

Is the injury thing luck? Or a function of having a younger roster than most?

[Diesel]

Another off-season, another national columnist saying we've peaked.

*rolls eyes*

All things being equal, ie, free agents mainly stay in-place (which is the only objective way to measure our roster until we know differently), I think Boston continues to ratchet back down toward the mean... Cleveland and Orlando remain the giants... but we firmly replace Boston as the #3 team in the conference. We're moving into the prime years of Josh, Al, and Marvin. I only expect our win total to grow... largely because as those guys do so, we're bound to lose fewer games that we shouldn't and bound to win more away game than we'd previously won.

Now, given, mathematically, it becomes increasingly difficult to beat the previous season, but winning 53 games isn't so far above .500 that that's a preemptive barrier..

Honestly, it depends on what happens. And when I say what happens, I mean that globally as well as with this team.

The NBA is in flux. Will we see the fall of Cleveland and the fall of Phoenix. Will we see Toronto become a third rate team. IF the Hawks get the right coach who can motivate and do the Xs and Os... and if we can assemble a good team, we might be one of the best in the East. Anything is possible. Having Joe makes it more possible.

[coachx]

Is the injury thing luck? Or a function of having a younger roster than most?

We were even younger last year but had many more injuries.

[NJHAWK]

The question Hollister begs is, assume Joe does come back... will the Hawks be "hard-pressed to win 53 games again"... ?

Cerainly not hard pressed. They should be right in the same area barring injury. They may improve overall by seasons end but a slow start is likely with an inexperienced pg.

[niremetal]

Not for nothing, but this is literally the 4th straight year that Hollinger has predicted regression. I think it's a good luck charm for us.

[Guest]

Not for nothing, but this is literally the 4th straight year that Hollinger has predicted regression. I think it's a good luck charm for us.

You must be mistaken because Hollinger is never wrong, he uses statistics.

/sarcasm

[Plainview1981]

If the PG and SF problems aren't addressed I'm going to agree with this. If they improve at one of those two spots they might win 50+ next year.

[JTB]

Honestly, it depends on what happens. And when I say what happens, I mean that globally as well as with this team.

The NBA is in flux. Will we see the fall of Cleveland and the fall of Phoenix. Will we see Toronto become a third rate team. IF the Hawks get the right coach who can motivate and do the Xs and Os... and if we can assemble a good team, we might be one of the best in the East. Anything is possible. Having Joe makes it more possible.

agreed in other words its about what our next coach will bring and if he brings good to this team and we keep jj we could very well get 53 wins again no prob! the only other thing that could stop us is injuries. so really holister comments is very untrue right now cause none of us can see into the future on what injuries will take place or what our next coach will bring to this team or how this team will even look next season! just too many factors and question marks. I would think a nba anyalst would know this but since the jj going elsewhere is so big right now many are just riding us off if he leaves but that's not true at all! no one knows what can happen.

[dlpin]

First, I don't know what the celtics eventual decline has to do with the hawks winning 53 games again. The hawks already swept the celtics in the regular season this year, so whatever decline they experience next year won't yield extra wins.

Now, if I were a betting man and the over/under on hawks wins next year was 53, I'd bet a ton of money on the under. Why?

Crawford played 79 games this season. He's only reached that total before in 4 of his previous 9 seasons.

Josh Smith also tied his career high for games played. Al Horford missed just one game this season, instead of the 15 he missed last season.

No other team in the east was healthier.

Add to that the following: given how little the hawks want to pay for their coach, it is clear to me that they won't spend into the luxury tax. Which means that even if they resign JJ, they won't spend the full MLE. So the hawks will continue to have the paper thin bench they have now.

Finally, Crawford will be 30-31, the traditional age shooting guards start to deteriorate, and Bibby 32.

Edited May 16, 2010 by dlpin

[benhillboy]

Bibby is 52. And I agree with the nerd Hollinger, as much as I hate to admit it. Any franchise who pays max dollars to a player who was outscored by his back-up in a historically embarrassing semi-final deserves to regress. I will kiss the hand of a coach who can win 54 games without a point guard nor true center, and Messy Marvin.

[Dsinner]

I could care less how many games we win in the reg season. I want to make it past the 2nd round. If that means we win 45 and get the 4th seed and meet Orlando in the ECF I could care less about 50 wins.

[High5]

If we keep Joe and replace Woodson with a decent coach then 50+ wins will be easy. Woodson never came close to maximizing our talent.

I don't think Joe stays, though.

[tremor]

I don't care about number of wins as long as they finish top4 in the East. Emphasis should be put on preparation for post season - match ups against other top teams in the conference, exploiting their liabilities, covering own weaknesses, player development, offensive playbook and faith that Hawks can beat anyone.

[Uncaged]

IF we want to be considered a real elite team next year we have to win even if we do have a rash of injuries (which luckily we didn't have this year). Look at teams like Utah and Portland. Lost their top players for significant amounts of time and didn't miss a beat. I agree that a big reason we won 53 was due to good health and Jamal Crawford was a difference in a lot of those wins. The blown leads offsets all of that so IMO we would've won 53 either way. As for Holister, Is he still employed. Dude is a complete tool