The Chicago Experiment: a study in how to build a team

[CBAreject]

I can't help but watch what Chicago is doing and wonder what might have been if we weren't the most idiotic drafting team in NBA history. Now, for about a decade, Chicago was as poorly managed as we were. They got a few things right for a spell, such as the Luol Deng, Tyson Chandler, and Kirk Hinrich draftings, but at some point they realized their apex was a 45 win team. When Chicago started its latest rebuild, they got a lot of things right.

Here's what Chicago did starting in 2007:

1) Draft a center (most important position) with a lottery pick (Noah) in 2007

2) Draft a PG (2nd most important position) with a lottery pick (Rose) in 2008

3) Use FA dollars gained by letting Chandler and Hinrich go on a stud PF (3rd most important position) outright in his prime (Boozer)

Now Chicago will be in a 3-team competition to get to the Finals this year, and who really thinks they don't have a legitimate shot? We have no shot, whatsoever, and the only way we would put ourselves in that race is to trade for Steve Nash, which may not even be possible. It took Chicago 3 or 4 years to do this, though, and in our 10 year rebuild, all we did was draft SF (5th most important position) after SF. We signed a SG (4th most important position) in the same year we blew up our team, which cost us a chance to draft even higher in later years, and we threw in picks in the deal to get that SG which were used to draft yet another all-star PG (Rondo), who we would now give anything to trade that same SG for. When we finally got to drafting big men for need, we made one of the worst top-5 picks in recent history, given who was available (the consensus pre-draft ROY, Roy) and where the guy we drafted (Sheldon) was projected to go if we didnt' take him (15th) and how he panned out (miserably). The only person associated with Hawks management who thought any of this was a bad idea was the man most demonized, Steve Belkin. What was his point of contention? The draft picks thrown in. Admittedly, Chicago got a little lucky to get the #1 pick in a draft with a true #1 player (Rose), but they made that luck count for something. We got a little lucky, too, when we got Horford and the #2 pick that should've been used on paul. We wasted our good fortune.

[MaceCase]

Lucking out and getting the number 1 pick in the draft with your hometown superstar prospect on the board goes a long way. Everything else they did from there is gravy. Noah is questionable as a piece, he's really no different than Varejao for the Cavs all those years and they had no choice but to take him given the absolute lack of anything behind him. They traded Chandler ages ago, blew money on Ben Wallace, traded for Tyrus Thomas over Aldridge, were lucky to dump John Salmons, let Hinrich and Ben Gordon go for nothing, dropped a draft pick on James Johnson and then blew their free agency money on Boozer yes but also Kyle Korver and Ronnie Brewer. Make no mistake, outside of Rose and that team would be going nowhere. There's very good reason why he's considered a MVP candidate and considered arguably the best PG in the league even over the two that we passed over. If hoping for the number 1 pick and a once in a generation talent also being available in the draft is the idea of a model to follow then you can count me out because the chances of that happening are never in a teams favor.

Edited February 4, 2011 by CrawfulToCrawesome

[CBAreject]

Lucking out and getting the number 1 pick in the draft with your hometown superstar prospect on the board goes a long way. Everything else they did from there is gravy. Noah is questionable as a piece, he's really no different than Varejao for the Cavs all those years and they had no choice but to take him given the absolute lack of anything behind him. They traded Chandler ages ago, blew money on Ben Wallace, traded for Tyrus Thomas over Aldridge, were lucky to dump John Salmons, let Hinrich and Ben Gordon go for nothing, dropped a draft pick on James Johnson and then blew their free agency money on Boozer yes but also Kyle Korver and Ronnie Brewer. Make no mistake, outside of Rose and that team would be going nowhere. There's very good reason why he's considered a MVP candidate and considered arguably the best PG in the league even over the two that we passed over. If hoping for the number 1 pick and a once in a generation talent also being available in the draft is the idea of a model to follow then you can count me out because the chances of that happening are never in a teams favor.

LOL @ once in a generation.

also, LOL @ "Noah is quiestionable as a piece" at 14/12 and "he's really no different than Varejao". OMG. Yeah I guess that's why the Cavs had to struggle so hard to find post help when Varejao was there. Because of all the 14/12 seasons he was posting. I would trade anyone on our team except for Horford and Smoove for Noah.

also, LOL @ "blew their free agency money on Boozer"

You are delusional. The Bulls were poorly managed for years, but so were we. The point is, they started to get it right in 2007, drafting important positions first and spending free agency dollars AFTER the team was already built. We did the opposite, drafting least important players first and signing a max FA before we had a nucleus in place, which served to 1) make our future draft picks worse and 2) tie up dollars so that we couldn't add a piece when we needed to. We also got JUST as lucky when we got the #2 pick that could've been used on Paul who is just as good as Rose, which is why your "once in a generation" comment is so laughable. We got even luckier when we got the Horford pick (we had to get that or the Durant pick...if we'd gotten the Oden pick, we would've been screwed).

Edited February 4, 2011 by CBAreject

[Guest]

I'm gonna check back on this thread in mid May...Chicago isn't oing deep into the playoffs. I just don't think they are gonna make any noise in the playoffs. Everyone will buckle down on Rose and Boozer will pull his disappearing act. We are a better team. Oh by the way, since when is the power forward the 3rd most important position? In my opinion it goes 1,5,2,4,3....just me though.

[MaceCase]

LOL @ once in a generation.

also, LOL @ "Noah is quiestionable as a piece" at 14/12 and "he's really no different than Varejao". OMG. Yeah I guess that's why the Cavs had to struggle so hard to find post help when Varejao was there. Because of all the 14/12 seasons he was posting. I would trade anyone on our team except for Horford and Smoove for Noah.

also, LOL @ "blew their free agency money on Boozer"

You are delusional. The Bulls were poorly managed for years, but so were we. The point is, they started to get it right in 2007, drafting important positions first and spending free agency dollars AFTER the team was already built. We did the opposite, drafting least important players first and signing a max FA before we had a nucleus in place, which served to 1) make our future draft picks worse and 2) tie up dollars so that we couldn't add a piece when we needed to. We also got JUST as lucky when we got the #2 pick that could've been used on Paul who is just as good as Rose, which is why your "once in a generation" comment is so laughable. We got even luckier when we got the Horford pick (we had to get that or the Durant pick...if we'd gotten the Oden pick, we would've been screwed).

I didn't say they blew their money on Boozer I said they got him yes but then they also went on to blow money on Brewer and Korver. To me Boozer is just Joe Johnson at the PF position, same price too. Noah was pretty much a BPA choice for them but you can't discount that they were also paying Ben Wallace 13 million to start at the same time that they drafted him. Rose was a gift from the heavens, they haven't made any impact picks or signings outside of Boozer and Thibodeau to their team since. Both Boozer and Noah have also missed significant amount of games during the season yet their winning% hasn't changed....who is it exactly that"s been there nearly every game again?

This is no different than Seattle lucking out and having Portland make their decision for them by taking Oden. People are jumping all over them too over "building a team the right way" when the reality is the lottery is a crapshoot and sometimes teams just happen to luck out and get superstars that make the rest of their moves look better than they are. Fact is there are a billion flaws in your theory. Chicago has played the most home games, they've had a rather easy schedule of 15 or so straight sub .500 teams and they also sit atop the weakest division in the league. Outside of Rose they are not gold and will have to put together a much larger body of work before I crown them. They are capped out as is and haven't impressed anybody with their outside the lottery draft picks. They are locked into that core but you want me to believe that they drafted Noah at 9 with the full expectation that their playoff core would collapse and they would get the #1 overall pick the next season? Come on.

[exodus]

The Hawks were lucky in the lottery too. They had a chance to take their pick between two franchise pgs and passed on both.

The year before they had the chance to draft Deng who is currently averaging 18 ppg and is a good defender. Instead they drafted Childress who is currently averaging 5 ppg and can't defend for crap.

Then there was Shelden at 5 and all of the blown high 2nd rounders.

BK would have had a tough time doing worse with all the picks he had.

[niremetal]

1) If Noah's a center, Horford definitely is.

2) It helps when the consensus #1 player in the draft is a PG and you have the #1 overall pick.

Crawful got the rest.

[coachx]

1) If Noah's a center, Horford definitely is.

Yep.......and even when they played together at Florida it was Horford playing center and Noah at PF. When they played Oden in the Finals who matched up with him ? It was Horford not Noah.

Noah is the better weak side / help defender but Horford is better at man on man post defense.

Edited February 4, 2011 by coachx

[macdaddy]

Cleveland won 61 games last year also topping the worst division in basketball. Then of course a second round exit at the hands of the celts. I agree it remains to be seen if this is a good playoff team or even a good team long term.

[High5]

LOL, why is a PF more important than a SG?

[cam1218]

Chicago has definitely improved this year. I really get tired of hearing Barkley say "there are 4 legitimate teams in the east" repeatedly on Inside the NBA. When I first heard I thought he was talking about the Celtics, Heat, Magic, and the Hawks. He actually leaves the Hawks out and puts the Bulls in. The Bulls really haven't proved anything yet but they get so much praise.

One thing to remember when evaluating them is the fact they play in a horrible division. The second place team, Indiana, is currently the #9 seed in the East. Chicago's record in their division is 11-0, making them 23-14 outside of their division. If the season ended today we would have 4 teams in our division make the playoffs. Yes I know the Bobcats don't really deserve it, but it is what it is. Teams coming from the SE are going to have a much tougher schedule than the Bulls will.

[Wretch]

I know I'm like a broken record sometimes (often!), but the truth remains the truth no matter how you try to spin it. The franchise has an unremarkable 40 year history in Atlanta. It is unique amongst ALL sports franchises, across ALL pro sports, in EVERY city, in the Atlanta Hawks have never gotten anywhere close to the finals. There is a reason for that...

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."

Living in the past is futile and counterproductive. Learning from the past is essential and profitable. I don't know of very many successful people or programs that just were all of a sudden great at whatever they do. It takes failure and it takes being able to SEE failure. Compared to the rest of the sports world, our playoff history is a failure. Thusly, our management has been a failure. At some point...somebody needs to get it.

We've played a lot of weak teams. So have most of the teams in the front of the pack. We've got 30+ wins. only the best teams in the league can say that. We're right in the front of the pack on pace for another 50 win season. We've got TWO All Stars, the best 6th man in the league, and a stat machine at PF/SF who should be considered for the All Star game.

Some people look at that and don't see what all the "gloom and doom" is all about. They must have forgotten the team from the 90's that was coached by one of the all time greats, had one of the all time great defenders at center (if not the greatest), had multiple All Star reserve players. That beat the best teams in the league during the regular season...and couldn't get out of the 2nd round.

I'll not get into what the best plan for rebuilding is. Nor do I believe that rebuilding is the answer right now. At some point though, management has to recognize when a team is slogging through mediocrity...and they need to DO something.

Me.di.oc.ri.ty (noun) /ˌmēdēˈäkrətē/

1.

Averageness

a quality that is adequate or acceptable, but not very good

I would rather SUCK than suffer through 4-5 years of 1st & 2nd round mediocrity. We will be JUST good enough to make the playoffs (like we have done most of the time in the last 40 years) and draft players like Ed Gray, Donnie Boyce, Doug Edwards, and Roshown McCloed. We will not be nearly bad enough to draft the guys that will lead the teams to the conference finals - guys like Blake Griffin and Derrick Rose. That is the history of this club and it's time we did something different.

Right now, I think we are pretty close to our ceiling. There are some things that need to be fixed if we want to actually REACH or potential (let alone go higher). People need to understand that Josh Smith is not a go to player. He is a guy that can give you defense, energy, and complimentary scoring as a FRINGE 3rd option. Josh needs to realize that too. He could be a downright incredible x-factor/glue guy on a BALANCED championship team. For us, he's causing just as many turnovers & forced shots as he makes defensive/hustle/energy plays. Our coach (or somebody) needs to turn his attention to focusing on the latter.

We have ONE, ***UNO***, reliable scoring option. JUST one. Love him or hate him, his name is Joe Johnson. As our #1 option, he has to get into the lane. We don't have a low post threat and his big-bodied floaters in the lane are the closest we are going to get to high percentage shots.

Al Horford has to become the #2 option. This will not happen as long as Smoove is firing at will and turning the ball over. This is our starting front court. This is one half of our "All Star" duo. This guy is at the top of the league in FG%. He's got the 2nd highest scoring average of the top 5 leaders in FG%...behind Dwight "Center of the Magic Offense/Big as a Truck" Howard. GIVE HIM THE BALL.

Jumpshots....

Jumpshots.Jumpshots.Jumpshots.Jumpshots.Jumpshots.Jumpshots.Jumpshots.Jumpshots.Jumpshots.Jumpshots.Jumpshots.Jumpshots.Jumpshots.Jumpshots.Jumpshots.Jumpshots.Jumpshots.Jumpshots. If we live and die by the jumpshot, then we are going to simply DIE. Teams without an inside game do not win the games that count. They just don't. I love Crawford off the bench. But he is our #2 option, he doesn't start the game or the half to set the tone, and he's a streaky jump shooter. Leaning on him, Horf, and JJ to "shoot" us into the ECF, with three cups of Smoove TO's and shot selection...is a recipe for mediocrity.

BK screwed us from jumpstreet with this mad scientist all 6'8" project. The word we're looking for is flawed. Every team has flaws, but this team is flawed. It will reveal itself come post season when the jumpers stop falling. I stand by my off season prediction - we are going to see some GOOD basketball in the 2nd half of the season. We're going to have some GOOD showings against the best in the league. We're going to have a MUCH better showing in the playoffs (though I am worried about the 1st round...).

We're going home in the 2nd round.

[AHF]

Chicago should have eventually worked considering the draft picks they used during their long rebuild:

Chicago Picks

1999 - #1 & #14

2000 - #4, #7 & #21

2001 - #2, #4

2002 - #2

2003 - #7

2004 - #3, #7

2005 - None

2006 - #2, #16

2007 - #9

2008 - #1

2009 - #16

2010 - #17

Since the main difference I see is that they got their franchise player and we didn't, I think a strong case can be made that they simply had many more chances to get a franchise player and finally hit:

Chicago #1

Chicago #1

Atlanta #2

Chicago #2

Chicago #2

Chicago #2

Atlanta #3

Atlanta #3

Chicago #3

Chicago #4

Chicago #4

Atlanta #5

Atlanta #6

Atlanta #6

Chicago #7

Chicago #7

Chicago #9

Atlanta #11

Chicago #14

Atlanta #15

Chicago #16

Atlanta #17

Atlanta #17

Chicago #17

Atlanta #19

Atlanta #20

Atlanta #21

Chicago #21

Atlanta #24

Atlanta #27

[High5]

I know I'm like a broken record sometimes (often!)

That's because you always break out into these long monologues saying things everyone already knows.

[jerrywest]

Chicago should have eventually worked considering the draft picks they used during their long rebuild:

Chicago Picks

1999 - #1 & #14

2000 - #4, #7 & #21

2001 - #2, #4

2002 - #2

2003 - #7

2004 - #3, #7

2005 - None

2006 - #2, #16

2007 - #9

2008 - #1

2009 - #16

2010 - #17

Since the main difference I see is that they got their franchise player and we didn't, I think a strong case can be made that they simply had many more chances to get a franchise player and finally hit:

Chicago #1

Chicago #1

Atlanta #2

Chicago #2

Chicago #2

Chicago #2

Atlanta #3

Atlanta #3

Chicago #3

Chicago #4

Chicago #4

Atlanta #5

Atlanta #6

Atlanta #6

Chicago #7

Chicago #7

Chicago #9

Atlanta #11

Chicago #14

Atlanta #15

Chicago #16

Atlanta #17

Atlanta #17

Chicago #17

Atlanta #19

Atlanta #20

Atlanta #21

Chicago #21

Atlanta #24

Atlanta #27

Thanks. I was thinking of doing this when I saw this pointless thread.

[Wretch]

That's because you always break out into these long monologues saying things everyone already knows.

True. You would think people understood etiquette too. But mods still have to remind people don't they? *wink*wink*nudge*nudge*

It's funny how I've repeated these things for the 10 or 12 years I've been forum posting... (We're boring, we're stuck in mediocrity, we need to tank, Chris Paul, Luol Deng, Brandon Roy, fire Woodson, move the ball, etc., etc., etc.) and I'm always the "ZOMG" idoit, "ZOMG shut up already", "ZOMG UR WRONG." And you will still find people that disagree with the downright obvious. I also wonder if there was ever only one original topic ever started...how many threads we'd have. How many times can we trade the same player (Marvin) for the same kind of player?

More than all that, I wonder if you bother to read all that or just complain because it's there. I'll help you out though and I'll tell you something else everybody already knows! You don't have to read it!

*gasp*

You also don't even have to know I posted it. Here...let me show you how that works....

(Oh wait...I need to learn how to do it myself first!)

[coachx]

How Chicago built there team is to luck out and win the #1 lottery pick in year where there was a bonafide star player availble.

[Wretch]

How Chicago built there team is to luck out and win the #1 lottery pick in year where there was a bonafide star player availble.

The flip side of that too is...they got him. lol

Lady luck also handed them the GOAT. Who knew right? Everybody remembers Sam Bowie right? But all of that is an afterthought when you think about the years that Jordan and Pippen thrilled not just Chicago, but the nation. And as you go back through the ECFs, WCFs, and championships...you'll see a whole bunch of lucky players partying - crying and laughing - in their locker rooms with cigars, champaign, and trophies. How they got him, or how the Clips got Griffin, is irrelevant to me. If they make the ECFs or the finals before we do...it should put a huge magnifying glass over our process.

Because we haven't been able to with the way we do it.

[MaceCase]

Chicago should have eventually worked considering the draft picks they used during their long rebuild:

Chicago Picks

1999 - #1 & #14

2000 - #4, #7 & #21

2001 - #2, #4

2002 - #2

2003 - #7

2004 - #3, #7

2005 - None

2006 - #2, #16

2007 - #9

2008 - #1

2009 - #16

2010 - #17

Since the main difference I see is that they got their franchise player and we didn't, I think a strong case can be made that they simply had many more chances to get a franchise player and finally hit:

Chicago #1

Chicago #1

Atlanta #2

Chicago #2

Chicago #2

Chicago #2

Atlanta #3

Atlanta #3

Chicago #3

Chicago #4

Chicago #4

Atlanta #5

Atlanta #6

Atlanta #6

Chicago #7

Chicago #7

Chicago #9

Atlanta #11

Chicago #14

Atlanta #15

Chicago #16

Atlanta #17

Atlanta #17

Chicago #17

Atlanta #19

Atlanta #20

Atlanta #21

Chicago #21

Atlanta #24

Atlanta #27

I feel it's kind of facetious to even say that the Bulls rebuild started in 2007. They only had just come off a 49 win season that saw them not only sweep the previous year's champion Heat but also take the Pistons to 6 games during their classic runs of ECFs. They were returning their same playoff core and coach with every intention of getting to the next step through natural progression just like us. Noah was picked with the Knicks' lotto pick that they got from the Eddy Curry trade after all, not their own and if you look at that draft he was the absolute BPA available in addition to positional need for depth considering that they had Hinrich, Gordon, Duhon and Sefolosha at the guard rotation, Deng and Nocioni at the SF, and Tyrus Thomas and their big money free agent grab from the previous year Ben Wallace in the front court all returning.

If not for the wheels absolutely falling off that year that saw them start the season 9-16 amongst the players grumbling about Skiles and Ben Wallace grumbling about everything they very much would of just kept on going on the same runs in the postseason with the same roster. They absolutely lucked out by winning the lottery that year with a 1.7% chance at the number 1 pick considering that they had 33 wins, more wins than 8 other teams. Truly historical that lotto win was that it was the second biggest "upset" in lotto history. They also had another stroke of luck that the consensus number 1, hometown favorite, National Championship playing guard Derrick Rose was available that year. When they drafted him they didn't even have full rebuild in mind, they figured he would be the spark to their previous playoff core that would push them to new heights. They traded for pieces to put around his slashing style even such as John Salmons and Brad Miller but they still topped out at .500. They didn't even plan to get into the 2010 sweepstakes until half way into Rose's sophomore season where they were looking to be .500 at best.

It was at this point that they lucked out again that somebody would take Salmons and the threat of him taking his player option considering how terrible he was playing at the time to Milwaukee. Going into that summer they tried to off load both Hinrich and Deng but could only get takers for Hinrich. They were intending to end up with 2 top tier free agents same as the Knicks, Cavs, Heat and Nets but only ended up with the third or second tier stash of Carlos Boozer. Not the success they wanted but when you already have a team with Rose on it their haul didn't seem so bad.

This is not the model for rebuilding a franchise unless we too want to hope that this team crash dives and doesn't win another 5 games for the rest of the season, lucks out and get's Kyrie Irving in the draft, turn out to be mediocre with his addition to our current core and then try to offload a lot of our contracts in hopes of winning the 2012 sweepstakes and pulling in Chris Kaman over Dwight.

[Marvin24Williams]

Chicago can beat us, miami, and orlando imho. However, I don't think they'll be able to beat Boston