Josh's Jumpers Part 67, Chapter 8, Third Act

[benhillboy]

Not to create a firestorm, but there was an interesting link on ESPN's Hawks page to Hoopinion about Josh's jump shooting numbers, how they're better than the league average, yada yada. Is anyone starting to soften up on Josh and his decision to launch? I mean in theory, he's Red Sea open 4 out of 5 times, so is it starting to become a "good" shot for him? On one hand, I can see those who think it's one less opportunity for him to post and/ or his form is abysmal, but on the other hand, who are we to argue with good results over a considerable span?

Edited January 18, 2012 by benhillboy

[MoBetta]

Josh Dominating Inside (which in turn gets the opposition in foul trouble)>>>>>>>>>>Jumpshooting Josh

This will always be a fact

[benhillboy]

Josh Dominating Inside (which in turn gets the opposition in foul trouble)>>>>>>>>>>Jumpshooting Josh

This will always be a fact

True, but the rewards diminish considerably with his awful free throw shooting.

[lethalweapon3]

I'm amidst my self-imposed Smoovatorium (shutting myself up criticizing the long-range bombs), but here are some hoopdata numbers I've been tracking regarding long-range shooting by players 6'9" and higher.

I think he can afford to bring his shot volume down more (that's as much of a critique as I'm allowing myself to say).

However, after the last couple decent-shooting games, his efficiency from that distance is not as wretched as I like to imagine it is, particularly when compared to similarly-shooting big men.

Field Goal Attempts per Game from 16-23 Feet (Players 6’9” and Above, min. 4 or more 16-23' FGAs per game)

(Shooting Percentage From This Range in Parentheses)

1. LaMarcus Aldridge 6.77 (50.0%)

2. JOSH SMITH 6.07 (42.4%)

3. Kevin Durant 5.43 (53.9%)

4. Andrea Bargnani 5.36 (49.2%)

5. Byron Mullens 5.36 (46.7%)

6. Luis Scola 5.31 (37.7%)

7. Andray Blatche 5.10 (37.3%)

8. Blake Griffin 5.10 (31.4%)

9. Jason Smith 5.00 (42.0%)

10. Carlos Boozer 4.87 (43.8%)

11. Amar’e Stoudemire 4.82 (28.3%)

12. Kevin Garnett 4.75 (40.4%)

13. Tayshaun Prince 4.69 (36.1%)

14. Dirk Nowitzki 4.57 (56.3%)

15. Luol Deng 4.53 (33.8%)

16. Michael Beasley 4.43 (25.8%)

17. Chris Bosh 4.25 (31.4%)

18. Antawn Jamison 4.17 (32.0%)

19. Glen Davis 4.08 (28.6%)

20. Tim Duncan 4.00 (59.6%)

21. Marreese Speights 4.00 (58.3%)

% of Player’s Field Goal Attempts Beyond 15 Feet (Players 6’9” and Above from List above)

(includes 3-point shots)

[shooting Percentage Beyond This Distance in Brackets]

1. Jason Smith 73.7% [39.3%]

2. Tayshaun Prince 54.3% [38.2%]

3. Kevin Durant 54.2% [47.4%]

4. Andrea Bargnani 53.8% [40.8%]

5. Byron Mullens 52.6% [46.3%]

6. Antawn Jamison 52.3% [32.4%]

7. Luol Deng 48.6% [31.8%]

8. Glen Davis 48.6% [27.5%]

9. JOSH SMITH 47.5% [39.4%]

10. Dirk Nowitzki 45.9% [45.6%]

...

21. Blake Griffin 29.5% [32.7%]

Field Goal Attempts per Point Beyond 15 Feet (Players 6’9” and Above from List above)

(includes 3-point shots; lower # is better)

1. Glen Davis 1.82

2. Chris Bosh 1.59

3. Amar’e Stoudemire 1.50

4. Blake Griffin 1.49

5. Michael Beasley 1.46

6. Luol Deng 1.35

7. Luis Scola 1.35

8. Andray Blatche 1.34

9. JOSH SMITH 1.25

10. Jason Smith 1.24

...

18. LaMarcus Aldridge 1.00

19. Kevin Durant 0.89

20. Marreese Speights 0.86

21. Tim Duncan 0.86

~lw3

[AHawks89]

he Hawks have since outscored opponents by an average of 13.7 points over a three-game run while the duo has thrived. Johnson is averaging 25.0 points in the last three games - 8.3 more than he posted in his first 11 - while Smith is averaging 22.0 on 57.4 percent shooting and 12.0 rebounds.

His shooting percentage has been impressive so far, but I still do not want him to shoot any jumpers. I rather him drive to the paint 90% of the time, and if he is successful doing that then I don't mind seeing him take a few jumpers here and there.

[benhillboy]

I'm amidst my self-imposed Smoovatorium (shutting myself up criticizing the long-range bombs), but here are some hoopdata numbers I've been tracking regarding long-range shooting by players 6'9" and higher.

I think he can afford to bring his shot volume down more (that's as much of a critique as I'm allowing myself to say).

However, after the last couple decent-shooting games, his efficiency from that distance is not as wretched as I like to imagine it is, particularly when compared to similarly-shooting big men.

Field Goal Attempts per Game from 16-23 Feet (Players 6’9” and Above, min. 4 or more 16-23' FGAs per game)

(Shooting Percentage From This Range in Parentheses)

1. LaMarcus Aldridge 6.77 (50.0%)

2. JOSH SMITH 6.07 (42.4%)

3. Kevin Durant 5.43 (53.9%)

4. Andrea Bargnani 5.36 (49.2%)

5. Byron Mullens 5.36 (46.7%)

6. Luis Scola 5.31 (37.7%)

7. Andray Blatche 5.10 (37.3%)

8. Blake Griffin 5.10 (31.4%)

9. Jason Smith 5.00 (42.0%)

10. Carlos Boozer 4.87 (43.8%)D

11. Amar’e Stoudemire 4.82 (28.3%)

12. Kevin Garnett 4.75 (40.4%)

13. Tayshaun Prince 4.69 (36.1%)

14. Dirk Nowitzki 4.57 (56.3%)

15. Luol Deng 4.53 (33.8%)

16. Michael Beasley 4.43 (25.8%)

17. Chris Bosh 4.25 (31.4%)

18. Antawn Jamison 4.17 (32.0%)

19. Glen Davis 4.08 (28.6%)

20. Tim Duncan 4.00 (59.6%)

21. Marreese Speights 4.00 (58.3%)

% of Player’s Field Goal Attempts Beyond 15 Feet (Players 6’9” and Above from List above)

(includes 3-point shots)

[shooting Percentage Beyond This Distance in Brackets]

1. Jason Smith 73.7% [39.3%]

2. Tayshaun Prince 54.3% [38.2%]

3. Kevin Durant 54.2% [47.4%]

4. Andrea Bargnani 53.8% [40.8%]

5. Byron Mullens 52.6% [46.3%]

6. Antawn Jamison 52.3% [32.4%]

7. Luol Deng 48.6% [31.8%]

8. Glen Davis 48.6% [27.5%]

9. JOSH SMITH 47.5% [39.4%]

10. Dirk Nowitzki 45.9% [45.6%]

...

21. Blake Griffin 29.5% [32.7%]

Field Goal Attempts per Point Beyond 15 Feet (Players 6’9” and Above from List above)

(includes 3-point shots; lower # is better)

1. Glen Davis 1.82

2. Chris Bosh 1.59

3. Amar’e Stoudemire 1.50

4. Blake Griffin 1.49

5. Michael Beasley 1.46

6. Luol Deng 1.35

7. Luis Scola 1.35

8. Andray Blatche 1.34

9. JOSH SMITH 1.25

10. Jason Smith 1.24

...

18. LaMarcus Aldridge 1.00

19. Kevin Durant 0.89

20. Marreese Speights 0.86

21. Tim Duncan 0.86

~lw3

It's safe to say Leathal is the resident Stat Guy here. Good dig.

Edited January 18, 2012 by benhillboy

[01d0rd3r]

Remember at the beginning of last year when he was shooting a solid percentage from three? Regression to the mean will happen, he needs to be dominating the inside.

[hawkman]

Remember at the beginning of last year when he was shooting a solid percentage from three? Regression to the mean will happen, he needs to be dominating the inside.

I'm not so sure about that this time. Something seems 'different' about Josh this time around. It's not just him hitting jumpers, its his entire game. Is he more focused? He looks like a viable #1-#2 option out there now since Horf went down. I fully expected to see him try to do too much with Horf out, but instead the pace of his game has actually slowed to the point where he plays within the flow of the offense and isn't forcing things as much. He looks like a bonafide inside/outside threat now. He actually got DOUBLE TEAMED last game. A lot of people, including myself, wanted to see Smoove play more like Kemp. Right now, he's playing better than Kemp IMHO. I want to see what he does against Aldridge tonight.

[AHF]

Remember at the beginning of last year when he was shooting a solid percentage from three? Regression to the mean will happen, he needs to be dominating the inside.

I agree 100%. He has always had periods that run a few weeks where he shoots well from long range but by the end of the season he has gone much longer streaks continuing to shoot when he was clearly not feeling it.

Frankly, the guy should get his free throw shooting down before worrying about his jump shot. How much more of a wide open shot can you get than a free throw?

Josh can score against competitive defenses quite well with his inside game. If he improves his FT%, that will be all the more effective. Josh can go through stretches where he shoots wide open in game jumpers quite well but where does that get you?

If he has the same season he has always had, he will so ineffective with his jumper over the course of the season that teams will leave him wide open trying to goad him into shooting a bad shot and ruining the offensive possession. That isn't a good outcome. If he develops consistency on wide open jumpers, all that buys you is a defender in your face in which case we are back to Josh shooting bad shots (defended jumpers) too far from the rim to impact the game with his offensive rebounding and interior play. That isn't a great scenario in my book either.

We have a team full of jump shooters and don't need Josh hanging around the perimeter. Conversely, we need him near the basket.

Edited January 18, 2012 by AHF

[Supporter]

Fine with him shooting jumpshots if he is making them as long as he drives to the rim when he is not

[AHF]

Fine with him shooting jumpshots if he is making them as long as he drives to the rim when he is not

I am fine with that the way I am fine with a drug addict continuing to do drugs as long as he stops doing them when it could be dangerous. Sounds good in theory. Doesn't hold up very well in the real world.

[HawksFan87]

I think all of those who continue to complain about josh shooting jumpers 15 games into the season should just get over it. He's not going to stop, so why continue to make threads about this everyday? Josh is going to be Josh, he could careless about the boos from the crowd or what anyone thinks about his shooting... Josh has been starting his game inside, then going outside when the oppurtunity presents itself. He's playing great ball... Yet some still want to complain about his game, smh.

[AHF]

I think all of those who continue to complain about josh shooting jumpers 15 games into the season should just get over it. He's not going to stop, so why continue to make threads about this everyday? Josh is going to be Josh, he could careless about the boos from the crowd or what anyone thinks about his shooting... Josh has been starting his game inside, then going outside when the oppurtunity presents itself. He's playing great ball... Yet some still want to complain about his game, smh.

This is what people said last year and then he went through several months of terrible perimeter shooting. I love the fact that Josh is consistently bringing his "A" game right now but I doubt he can keep shooting this well from the perimeter. He can keep playing this well if he plays hard and smart, though. Definitely want to see that happen.

I won't be starting any threads on Josh's jump shot but I'm not going to shy away from giving my $.02. As for me personally, I think Josh is the only guy on our team who can become a true star.

[cam1218]

I'm fine with him shooting jumpers in certain situations:

• If he starts his game by going inside and getting some easy buckets, I don't mind a jumper here or there.
  
• If the team as a whole seems to be hot and we are leading.
  
• If he gets a wide open shot at the end of the shot clock.
  

It's just the jumpers he takes when we are behind or when he just keeps shooting them when he's missed multiple jumpers already. Honestly though, that isn't just a Josh problem. A lot of our guys seem to stick with their jump shot a little too long.

[AHF]

I'm fine with him shooting jumpers in certain situations:

If he starts his game by going inside and getting some easy buckets, I don't mind a jumper here or there.

Josh is shooting an average of 5.5 attempts from 9 feet and closer. He is shooting an average of 6.1 attempts 15 feet and closer.

He is shooting an average of 6.7 attempts from 16 feet and longer. That isn't a jumper here or there. That is a majority of his shots.

If the team as a whole seems to be hot and we are leading.

I assume the idea behind this is that we are leading and have momentum so we can better absorb a few bad shots. This is not anything to like but just means that there may be less damage from those shots.

If he gets a wide open shot at the end of the shot clock.

I agree with this. This is an appropriate time to shoot an otherwise non-optimum jumper.

[Wretch]

If he develops consistency on wide open jumpers, all that buys you is a defender in your face in which case we are back to Josh shooting bad shots (defended jumpers) too far from the rim to impact the game with his offensive rebounding and interior play.

This is where you start when talking about Josh Jumpers. He's getting wide open shots - not because he's creating these shots, but because they are GIVEN to him. Every team in the league is going to sag off of him and encourage him to shoot it. If and when he develops consistency, they'll tighten up on him - and it won't take a double or even a halfway decent defender. Just someone to put a hand in his face. HE. WILL. MISS. He will also KEEP SHOOTING.

Against aggressive defenses, you can forget it. Playoff basketball? Forget it. I'm sorry, but that's just a no win situation. Shots 15' and out, give me anybody in the normal starting five BUT Josh. More over, give me all of these options before Smoove launches a jumper:

JJ

Floater, post up, mid-range jumper, 3 pointer

Teague

Penetration, 3 point, mid range

Al

Post up, face up dribble or midrange

Marvin

Post up, 3 point, penetration

HELL, GIVE ME F'N ZAZA....with a jumper from 15' and in

In short, there are a BAZILLION options that this team has and the least desirable, by a long shot, is a Josh Smith jumper. Why we continue to allow it is beyond me.

[DJlaysitup]

As long as he makes em...I'm fine with him shooting em ...not like he's going to pay any attention to what anybody says anyway.

Plus it keeps him from shooting free throws. Josh's new nickname should be "Sundance"...for the Sundance Kid - who was better when he moved.

Besides, we have Ivan to drive the ball to the hoop now and he makes his free throws.

Keep doin what you're doin Smoove......Life is good.

[Atlantaholic]

I agree 100%. He has always had periods that run a few weeks where he shoots well from long range but by the end of the season he has gone much longer streaks continuing to shoot when he was clearly not feeling it.

Frankly, the guy should get his free throw shooting down before worrying about his jump shot. How much more of a wide open shot can you get than a free throw?

This right here is the end of the thread as far as I'm concerned. You are a professional basketball player, if you can't hit 50% on your free throws you should not be allowed to shoot a jumpshot. Period. If the guy starts hitting 75% consistantly (like Horford) than go ahead and take shots. The guy has not shown in 7 seasons that he can be a consistant shooter. If he can continue to hit around 43% than I'll take it, but I promise you guys he ain't gonna be at 43% at the end of the year.

[Guest]

Josh's jumshot selections for me have always been time, distance and circumstance. Taking a jumshot within the flow of the offense is fine (especially when his feet are set), launching a 3-pt with 18 sec left on clock is a no-no. I have no complaints at the moment about Josh and his shots, he is playing within the offensive flow and he is passing up shots to give his teammates better shots, he is hussling, rebounding, and playing defense but you gotta work on your freethrows son.

[Joker]

Josh's jumshot selections for me have always been time, distance and circumstance. Taking a jumshot within the flow of the offense is fine (especially when his feet are set), launching a 3-pt with 18 sec left on clock is a no-no. I have no complaints at the moment about Josh and his shots, he is playing within the offensive flow and he is passing up shots to give his teammates better shots, he is hussling, rebounding, and playing defense but you gotta work on your freethrows son.

/Thread