Hawks a strong candidate for free agent Wesley Johnson

[Flight]

A winning situation can really bring out the best in a player as far as production

[NBASupes]

A winning situation can really bring out the best in a player as far as production

Yep, I think if he just went to LAC, he could at least be a slightly above below average player and product at a decent rate. In Atlanta, his stats can be skewed in the right direction and could be more than expected. This is his adv. Lakers notes:

  Wes Johnson's PPP by play type (possessions, PPP, Percentile)

Spot Up 198, 1.06, 74.4

Cut 47, 1.23, 61.7

Off Screen 101, .94, 58.9

Transition 124, 1.07, 43.1

Putbacks 35, 1.03, 42.0

Pick and Roll Ballhandler 104, .70, 37.6

ISO 57, .61, 17.7

Pretty much what you would expect. Solid when he sticks to spotting up, cutting, crashing the boards, and getting out in transition. Weak when he tries to handle the ball.

This says a lot.

[NBASupes]

What's funny, after breaking down all of the team stats for the Lakers. He was much worse last year than this year. He was outproduced by the opponent a lot less and produced a lot more in 2014-15 than 2013-14. His team was worse with him on the court in 2013-14 than in 2014-15. The difference is, his individual performance and metrics was worse in 2014-15 than 13-14. That could be attribute to being a better offensive system with MDA but MDA gives you little defensive foundation or protection so that says a lot. A lot of his team was worse in 2014-15 than in 13-14. 2nd to last defense in 14-15 and 24th in offense. Also the pace dropped from 2nd to 14th.

 

It's hard to look at his numbers when his teammates metrics are horrible as well especially the star Kobe Bryant who is one of the worst players in the NBA metrics wise.

Edited July 5, 2015 by NBASupes

[NBASupes]

Comparing potential teammates:

 

Bazemore and Johnson:

 

13-14 with the Lakers:

 

Bazemore through both adv. metrics and basic metrics leads you to believe he is a poor defensive player who can score, pass, get steals, rebound w/ a low turnover with high usage per mins.

 

Based on team stats, he gets outproduced more times than not but not extremely but more than likely. His team is much worse with him on the court than without him.

 

He marks as a boarderline NBA player. Watching the tape, you realize his value is his athletic ability, energy and spark he provides. Those are traits NBA teams like and he holds value around the league. Consistency is an issue.Not a major one considering his role and team.

 

14-15 Hawks

 

Bazemore through both adv. metrics and basic metrics leads you to believe he is a plus defensive player who can score on occasion, shoot 3pts at a solid clip, get steals, rebound w/ a low turnover with high usage per mins.

 

Based on team stats, he gets outproduced often. His team is much worse with him on the court than without him.

 

He marks as a decent reserve NBA player. Watching the tape, you realize his value is his athletic ability, energy and spark he provides. Those are traits NBA teams like and he holds value around the league. This remains accurate from team to team with the exception of defense. He went from being a horrible defensive player metrics wise to a plus defender. That's a massive jump to tell you the truth. The previous was an obvious NBA D- League regular if we didn't take the film into place. Consistency is a massive issue.

 

Wes Johnson

13-14

 

Johnson through both adv. metrics and basic metrics leads you to believe he is a solid defensive player who can shoot 3pt and finish around the basket, rebound defensively, get steals and blocks w/ a low turnover with a very low usage per mins.

 

Based on team stats, he gets outproduced often. His team is much worse with him on the court than without him.

 

He marks as a decent reserve NBA player. Watching the tape, you realize his value is his athletic ability, 3 point range, his ability to get steals and blocks at a high clip, good defensive rebounder, his ability to get play within himself and he is a highly assisted player. He moves well without the ball and is a system player. Consistency is a massive issue.

 

Wes Johnson

14-15

 

Johnson through both adv. metrics and basic metrics leads you to believe he is a below average defensive player who can shoot 3pt and finish around the basket at an elite clip, rebound defensively, get steals and blocks at a decent clip w/ a low turnover with low usage per mins.

 

Based on team stats, he gets outproduced more times than not but not extremely but more than likely. His team is better with him on the court than without him.

 

He marks as an decent reserve NBA player. Watching the tape, you realize his value is his athletic ability, 3 point range, his ability to get steals and blocks at a solid clip, good defensive rebounder, his ability to get play within himself and he is a fairly assisted player. He moves well without the ball and is a system player. Consistency is a massive issue.

 

I mention that because both played for the Lakers but they are different players. Bazemore is what he is. Atlanta is getting the most out of him but LA seem to get a lot of him as well. He really fits most NBA teams. Johnson on the other hand is primaryly a system player. His lack of ball handling and offensive skills limits him into a rotation level player. If misused, he can be limited. If misused and overplayed, he can be worse than his actual abilities indicate.

 

The End.

[RedDawg#8]

We can argue details and advanced stats but at the end of the day we really need another true SF on this roster who can actually bring something to the table. Wes Johnson would not be a starter for us either. No body expects him to come here and become DMC or mimick Baze's role. But the fact is he has a real chance to improve and flourish with our club that empasizes player development and encourages/teaches outside shooting. I doubt we get any version of him that was below average in LA

[NBASupes]

We can argue details and advanced stats but at the end of the day we really need another true SF on this roster who can actually bring something to the table. Wes Johnson would not be a starter for us either. No body expects him to come here and become DMC or mimick Baze's role. But the fact is he has a real chance to improve and flourish with our club that empasizes player development and encourages/teaches outside shooting. I doubt we get any version of him that was below average in LA

Highly unlikely we will. He's not in a personnel grouping where he could even be average add to the fact that he's an in terrible system and he's SOL. In Atlanta, he will at least be average based on personnel and system. How much better depends on his work ethic.

[sillent]

DMC was average his first year here. I was even questioning if Thabo can come in and start but DMC just kept improving. We have seen little progress from Wes.

Rookie- below average, average for a rookie

2nd- Poor

3rd- below average

4th- slightly above below average

5th- below average

DMC

Rookie- D-League quality

Soph- D League quality

3rd- D League quality

4th- Below average

5th- Average

6th- Solid and at the end of the season/playoffs was good and a top 10 SF.

Carroll came into the NBA positionless and became an all around consistent SF who is a 3 and D specialist as well as a dirty work player.

Johnson has been the same player for the most part. He improved but at a minor rate. While Carroll has improved greatly the last three seasons since Utah acquired him.

Johnson transitioned to the NBA a lot sooner than Carroll but he's seemed to reach his ceiling while Carroll has reached his and some. Johnson still has potential but I can easily see why most teams wouldn't want to give him more than the vet min if that.

Carroll has improved vastly in our system. Johnson has yet to be in our system. Your point is completely moot knowing we have the player development to actually develop talent. DeMarre was garbage in everything but defense before he got here. Wesley at least comes with some natural skills and athleticism.

[Plainview1981]

Yep, I think if he just went to LAC, he could at least be a slightly above below average player and product at a decent rate. In Atlanta, his stats can be skewed in the right direction and could be more than expected. This is his adv. Lakers notes:

  Wes Johnson's PPP by play type (possessions, PPP, Percentile)

Spot Up 198, 1.06, 74.4

Cut 47, 1.23, 61.7

Off Screen 101, .94, 58.9

Transition 124, 1.07, 43.1

Putbacks 35, 1.03, 42.0

Pick and Roll Ballhandler 104, .70, 37.6

ISO 57, .61, 17.7

Pretty much what you would expect. Solid when he sticks to spotting up, cutting, crashing the boards, and getting out in transition. Weak when he tries to handle the ball.

This says a lot.

 

Nothing much should change with him in the line up then.

 

We also have to remember that this is only for one season... The Hawks should have cap space to improve the position in 2016... right?

[Guest]

Nothing much should change with him in the line up then.

We also have to remember that this is only for one season... The Hawks should have cap space to improve the position in 2016... right?

I dunno but I like your new avatar

[NBASupes]

Carroll has improved vastly in our system. Johnson has yet to be in our system. Your point is completely moot knowing we have the player development to actually develop talent. DeMarre was garbage in everything but defense before he got here. Wesley at least comes with some natural skills and athleticism.

Not one time did I use comparisons based on him in our system because he isn't. To be honest, with our personnel, I think he would be a close to average player. In our system, who knows, he could be special.

 

Before Carroll joined, he was known to be a solid defender and a junkyard dog. He became a very good defender in our system.

[NBASupes]

Nothing much should change with him in the line up then.

 

We also have to remember that this is only for one season... The Hawks should have cap space to improve the position in 2016... right?

Umm, not really. Because Horford contract should be max and that pretty much takes up most of the 25% of the expected salary bump in the league. 

 

67.1-69.1 to 90 mil seems like a lot but the max is based off of percentages and seeing as to most of the NBA will have max money and after Durant, Horford is the best FA. He will get a max deal unquestionably.

 

 

It is vital for Atlanta to get Wes's bird rights and the only way to do that is via SnT.

 

Remember, DMC was a junkyard dog and he improved from yr 1 to yr 2. Being a JYD means doing a lot of the dirty work. While Wes has worked hard, he's not known for that. He's known for his plus athletic ability which would be the best on this team.

Edited July 5, 2015 by NBASupes

[NBASupes]

My best bet is Dallas and Atlanta would like to SnT for Lin/Johnson than sign them without their bird rights. That way, if they overachieve which is likely, they can resign them.

Edited July 5, 2015 by NBASupes

[nitte]

How about Tayshaun Prince? He is certainly not starter material anymore but he could provide some depth behind Thabo.

[sturt]

Reviewing his game logs from just the 26 post-ASG games he played, I'm struck by how wildly inconsistent WJ's games can be... exceptionally good offensive numbers... exceptionally bad offensive numbers... exceptionally good defensive numbers, and bad.

 

Glass half-full, he's capable AND... noting the legit concern about having healthy bodies, he's been pretty healthy over time.

 

Glass half-empty, he's been capable for a long time now.

 

I think it comes down to what we're asking for versus what he can deliver. If we're desperate for a starter at SF, I don't think the team that just went to the ECF ought to be relying on a guy with this resume'. If we're looking for a back-up at SF, he certainly can be relied upon to stay healthy and he certainly wouldn't have any deer-in-headlights as a spot starter.

 

If we can get him for the vet minimum, I for one am all in. Based on reports so far, it sounds like he's not prepared to accept that unless other options dry up.

Edited July 5, 2015 by sturt

[Guest]

How about Tayshaun Prince? He is certainly not starter material anymore but he could provide some depth behind Thabo.

I'm a big Tayshaunfan for us...he's still got a couple good years left and he's a winner and perfect lockeroom guy.

[NBASupes]

How about Tayshaun Prince? He is certainly not starter material anymore but he could provide some depth behind Thabo.

He's purely a backup at this time in any system. Not sure Atlanta wants to go in that direction. He not really a fit. That would be Richard Jefferson. You want a potential starting SF or a developmental SF instead of an Elton Brand type at a need position.

[NBASupes]

Reviewing his game logs from just the 26 post-ASG games he played, I'm struck by how wildly inconsistent WJ's games can be... exceptionally good offensive numbers... exceptionally bad offensive numbers... exceptionally good defensive numbers, and bad.

 

Glass half-full, he's capable AND... noting the legit concern about having healthy bodies, he's been pretty healthy over time.

 

Glass half-empty, he's been capable for a long time now.

 

I think it comes down to what we're asking for versus what he can deliver. If we're desperate for a starter at SF, I don't think the team that just went to the ECF ought to be relying on a guy with this resume'. If we're looking for a back-up at SF, he certainly can be relied upon to stay healthy and he certainly wouldn't have any deer-in-headlights as a spot starter.

 

If we can get him for the vet minimum, I for one am all in. Based on reports so far, it sounds like he's not prepared to accept that unless other options dry up.

I don't think Atlanta wants to sign him to the vet min just in case he shine and clearly exceeds his salary, we can't resign him because we wouldn't have his bird rights. Doing a SnT might be the only option we will do considering what just happened to DMC.

 

Like I said, he fits. That's clear but like Hardaway, he has had severe consistency issues. Is that someone you want to hand a starting job to BUT I would start him over Bazemore in our system any damn day of the week and not think twice about it. Of course I am not starting Hardaway and Korver for defensive reasons.

 

We will see.

 

I say we bring him to compete. 3 years 6 million with  team option on the 3rd year. He comes and excels, in his 4th year, we pay him a big contract which we can do with his bird rights.

 

I don't think Atlanta should ever do a 2 year deal again unless it's for players like Bazemore, Brand, Luc Richard Mbah Munte, Quincy Acy, etc. Limited potential players with limited potential regardless of the system. Hardaway like Johnson... We need their bird rights. Too talented and a good fit so how they can improve is much more likely than the avg.

Edited July 5, 2015 by NBASupes

[RandomFan]

Umm, not really. Because Horford contract should be max and that pretty much takes up most of the 25% of the expected salary bump in the league. 

 

I think you're forgetting that his cap hold will not be for the max salary. IIRC it's only like $16m or something like that. Which means we could add a bigtime free agent up the the cap + Horford's cap hold, and then sign Horford to whatever we want even if it's over the cap. See Cleveland this year.

 

But we'll also have Bazemore coming off the books with only Early Bird rights, just like DMC and Millsap this season.

Edited July 5, 2015 by RandomFan

[sturt]

Fwiw, learned just now that his agent is the same as Dennis'.

[TheFuzz]

He's purely a backup at this time in any system. Not sure Atlanta wants to go in that direction. He not really a fit. That would be Richard Jefferson. You want a potential starting SF or a developmental SF instead of an Elton Brand type at a need position.

 

Yea, I much prefer Richard Jefferson for bench filler because he can shoot a little bit.