Are Hawks better next year?

[jhay610]

Does Dwight stay healthy? I think this team is slightly worse unless draft picks are ready to come in and contribute right away. You traded two starters for 1. 

Horf for Dwight is an acceptable tradeoff if D12 is healthy, but we'll have to see how this works in pace-and-space. 

Ultimately, it's a moot point. Last two years' config had peaked in familiar Hawks territory (can handle 2nd tier teams but quickly dusted by a true contender), so you're not losing anything by going in a different direction. Fine with the Teague trade ahead of a contract year. 

Appreciate the willingness to shake things up, but I'm not sure we've done the right shaking. Not convinced we're better today than we were a year ago. 

[benhillboy]

I'm very leery of Dwight's health.  The same way GS doesn't trust Curry's.

Our specialists have to find their form again.  Kyle has to get back to the top of the True Shooting Mountain, Dennis has to attack off the dribble relentlessly, and Dwight has to eat glass.  Thabo has to prevent a late season drop off defensively, too.

Edited July 5, 2016 by benhillboy

[AUhawksfan]

I'd say we're about the same as last year but with a much higher potential ceiling based on what we can do with Dwight, development of Schröder, and how much of an impact the rookies make.

As stated on here, it makes for a much more exciting season either way!  I feel like we had hit our ceiling and there is much more potential here and I like it, even if it is a little more risky.

[AHF]

This is a standout topic for me.  I've been going back and forth about this same topic but don't have a clear answer.  On paper, it looks like we won't see too much change from last season's 48 win squad.

On the other hand, there is a lot of change going on here.  Howard is probably the biggest one because not only is it a lead piece being switched out, he is completely unlike Horford in how he plays.  This means that Bud will need to adjust scheme and that could swing more games than a simple talent flip.

Dennis is a big move as well but it is more the loss of the Teague / Dennis combo that I'm worried about.  Dennis stepped up some last season and shows all the signs of being a young player on the rise but he had his hot and cold spells.  Last season, Teague and Dennis were an alternative to the other when one went cold.  Our near minimum salary PG doesn't have the same promise, although I hope he provides a steady hand and steady production.  (Of course I hope he ends up being an absolute steal but let's see).

Our two new wings are likewise potential movers for this team. Our wings were abysmal last season outside of bad starter / good reserve production from Baze and stud D from Thabo.  Korver won't be coming off surgery this season, THJr will have had plenty of time to get the system, and our two rookies hold out the prospect of potential impact from the wing.  I expect fairly flat play from Baze and Thabo (which means both are productive 4th and 5th options when they are on the floor).  Like Howard, however, our rookies offer something that is potentially transformative with their size at the position.  If they can step up and let Baze play mostly SG, we could enjoy a major synergy boost with our weak wings not having to play out of position.  Or they could be rookies and not even get on the floor.   Can't wait to see what we get.

I feel like there is more variability around this team than we have seen in a while which should make it a fascinating one to watch.

[Bankingitbig]

As stated in a different thread, I expect our win totals to be fairly the same, maybe a bit less. But I expect a much better performance during the playoffs from this squad. Dennis will light a fire under the squad as the leading PG come playoff time and Howard (if he isn't injured) usually shows up during playoffs unlike Horford.

Edited July 5, 2016 by Bankingitbig

[Guest]

I think we could be better in the regular season and probably get a 4th overall seed in the east. I do think we will be more equipped to kick arse in the playoffs though when defense has to be key. I honestly think Horford disappeared during the playoffs but I think Dwight is actually better in the playoffs than the regular season. Guess we will see. Oh also, you can say the exact same about Dennis over Teague in the playoffs. 

[Guest]

6 hours ago, benhillboy said:

I'm very leery of Dwight's health.  

This is my concern as well, but then I remember we have upgraded our athletic training staff from 'cutman Wally Blaze'.  Part of the reason THJr didn't play early was because they were working with him to get his body right after the wrist injury.

Quote

Hardaway was slowed by a wrist injury most of last season with the Knicks, and after the Hawks acquired him in a Draft night trade in June http://www.nba.com/2015/news/06/26/hawks-knicks-trade.ap/index.html, he was still slow to respond. The injury kept him from being able to lift and train for a couple of months -- which, of course, affected his conditioning. And once the season begins, getting the work in becomes exponentially difficult.

But Lyles and his staff have made major strides with Hardaway since the start of the season. It wouldn't have happened if the coaching staff was more interested in getting Hardaway -- a big offseason piece -- on the floor rather than getting him healthy.

So Hardaway lived in the weight room -- "it was my second home," he said. He got on the resistance bike, ran three-minute runs every other week, and got to practice early.

"The decision is, well, how much do we want to focus on basketball, versus the performance or getting his body back," Lyles said. "And I think we all realized that, probably more the coaches, the coaches saw that, if we spend some time and let him get back physically, it's going to make him better on the court. And so we kind of made a shift of his performance being the priority. So he was in the gym four or five times a week, he's always doing extra conditioning. He's putting in a massive amount of work that we wouldn't normally in season, but because that was the goal, we could do it. It really paid off. Now, Tim's playing at a high level, and really contributing."

It was also vital that Hardaway saw the big picture, too.

"He made a commitment to getting real strong, and really well-conditioned, and getting back to being an elite athlete," Budenholzer said. "And he busted his butt with those guys, and they busted their butts with him. And he did everything -- he went to the D-League, and he's playing at a high level. And his body, it's very tangible, what Tim was able to do and what he accomplished."

Hardaway said it was tough to hear from Budenholzer that he wasn't going to play for a while. "But I knew what was at stake," he said. "I know what coach wanted me to do. When the coaches are able to talk to the players one on one, it makes life a lot easier, just to know what they want out of that player. It was great to have coach Bud just talk to me one on one, consistently, and not have me worry about it. He hears the positives I'm doing. And that helped me out tremendously

 

[TheFuzz]

I think we're worse mostly from the loss of Teague. I think Teague was a good bit better than Dennis, so we downgraded at starting PG and lost depth.

Horford and Howard is a wash, but I like Howard's upside more than Horf's. Plus we've got better balance. We need Korver/Bazemore/Thabo/Prince to hit shots.

[hazer]

Playoff Shredder > Playoff Teague

Playoff D12 > Playoff lil' bitch Alice Whoreford

SG Blaze > SF Blaze

Healthy summer 3zus/Thabo > surgical recovery summer 3zus/Thabo

2nd year in Hawks U THJr > 1st year in Hawks U THJr

Surgically repaired Splitter > Hobbled Splitter

Prince/Bembry > Oubre (THJr)/Eriksson, Payne/Tavares, Jenkins/Scott, James/Sy, so forth...

 

Similar regular season wins and position, better playoff performance...

[hazer]

13 minutes ago, TheFuzz said:

I think we're worse mostly from the loss of Teague. I think Teague was a good bit better than Dennis, so we downgraded at starting PG and lost depth.

Horford and Howard is a wash, but I like Howard's upside more than Horf's. Plus we've got better balance. We need Korver/Bazemore/Thabo/Prince to hit shots.

We definitely lost that depth, but IceTeague wasn't a 'good bit' better than Shredder. Slightly better, maybe. But Dennis' 1st year as a starter will best Jeff's 1st year starting. Shredder has a much higher ceiling and MUCH more fire/dawg/aggression/leadership. Jeff would quietly disappear at any given moment. Shredder may go through turnover spurts and bonehead shots (experience), but he's not going to disappear or back down on ya.

[Guest]

PGs:  Weaker overall, the tandem of Teague and Schröder was a major strength.  There is only Dennis who I have high hopes for.  Backupsstill undetermined and unproven in NBA

SG/SFs: Baze and THjr should continue improving, Kyle and Thabo will have have offseason training in lieu of rehabbing (although a year older) Rookies (hopefully they can contribute early so we see less of Kyle and Thabo)  - we've upgraded with size, youth and athleticism.

PF/C: We've fixed our rebounding weakness, our offense will change, more PnR, less PnP.  I'm still concerned about the backups. Health concerns with Splitter (even without the surgery he has been missing games the last 3 years) and just more talent backing up Paul (might be time to cut bait on Scott for an upgrade).

I think we are still top 4 in the East.

 

 

[RandomFan]

32 minutes ago, AHF said:

Our two new wings are likewise potential movers for this team. Our wings were abysmal last season outside of bad starter / good reserve production from Baze and stud D from Thabo. I expect fairly flat play from Baze and Thabo (which means both are productive 4th and 5th options when they are on the floor).  Like Howard, however, our rookies offer something that is potentially transformative with their size at the position.  If they can step up and let Baze play mostly SG, we could enjoy a major synergy boost with our weak wings not having to play out of position.

I think you're selling Baze a little short regarding how well he played last season. But that's something we can agree to disagree on.

I did want to point out that while Prince definitely has the size we are looking for out of a bigger wing than Baze, Bembry does not. He's only a half inch taller than Baze, but has a 2.25 inch shorter wingspan. Hardaway at 6'4.5" is the tallest of him, Baze, and Bembry. If those three are in our rotation going forward past 2016, then we are going to have two of them paired up on the floor together at some point, which means we'll have an undersized wing on the floor at some point.

I think most of us fully expect Prince to be in the 2-deep at SF at some point in 2016, and if not by then definitely by 2017. He'll be one bigger option going forward. Thabo and Korver are both adequate size for SF, but are getting long in the tooth. We'll probaly bring one of them back for 2017, but I'd hope we can get another young Prince sized wing heading into 2017. It will depend on Prine's development whether we need that player to be a starter or a backup.

[AHF]

Bembry's standing reach is 8'5''.  Prince's is 8'6''.  I don't see a big difference there.  Hardaway has good measurables but it is fair to say that the only non-scoring stat where he stands out is in turnovers (good unusually low #) -- he is not a rebounder, stealer, shot blocker, etc.  Looking at Bembry's insanely good rebounding numbers makes me hope he can hack it as part of the rotation at SF.   If we brought Bembry in to be 4th string SG (behind Bazemore, Korver, and THJr), I will less enthused for this season.

[Plainview1981]

How are they going to better?

- They have no backup center. And please... Don't say Splitter. He is good for 30-50 games a year at the most, and he isn't all great when he is in the line up.

-They had to go to the goodwill store to get a back up PG from overseas.

-Still very weak at the 2/3 spots. They have lots of guys there, but none of them are very good. What I strongly dislike is that none of these guys really have any handles or anything. It's lay ups or three's for them. 

-Weak bench overall

-The team will not have the say chemistry it had before.

 

I know everyone will just say I'm being negative, but this team has a lot of holes.

 

Another issue is that this is an offense where 3pt shooting is big, but the Hawks don't really have that many good shooters. Bazemore and Thabo are not reliable outside shooters, Korver isn't the shooter he used to be, and I cringe when Dennis takes a 3. 

 

Edited July 5, 2016 by Hotlanta1981

[Sothron]

I honestly think  we will be better once Bud starts Prince at SF, puts Kent at SG and lets Korver come off the bench as a sixth man. Our defense will be our selling point and we should have enough shot creators and ball movers to feed Dwight like crazy in the low post. I hope we run the old Orlando offense for him with some tweaks to get him his touches. There are very few big men that can guard Dwight in the post and I think we'll get a ton of free throws as a result.

[RandomFan]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

Bembry's standing reach is 8'5''.  Prince's is 8'6''.  I don't see a big difference there.  Hardaway has good measurables but it is fair to say that the only non-scoring stat where he stands out is in turnovers (good unusually low #) -- he is not a rebounder, stealer, shot blocker, etc.  Looking at Bembry's insanely good rebounding numbers makes me hope he can hack it as part of the rotation at SF.   If we brought Bembry in to be 4th string SG (behind Bazemore, Korver, and THJr), I will less enthused for this season.

Standing reach isn't what makes for a good defender, where wingspan to get hands in passing lanes or the length to knock the ball away from a ballhandler is more influential. Speaking of wingspan, it's crazy that Bazemore is almost 3 inches shorter than Prince, but both have the same wingspan. It's what allows Baze to guard the bigger wings, along with his insane athleticism. If Baze can just continue to work on his outside shot and get that a little bit better, along with perhaps a little more consistency finishing at the rim, I think he could be a top 10 SG.

Hardaway I agree on. My guess has always been that Bud wanted to get his hands on Hardaway to mold into Korver's future replacement - the elite offensive scoring wing that plays enough defense to not be a liability there. Hardaway obviously doesn't have the 3 point stroke like Korver yet, and may never; but he's also got much more athleticism to put the ball on the floor and drive the basket. HIs defense and rebounding are likely alwasy going to be less than strengths though.

I don't think looking at anyone as 4th string anything is the proper way to look at it. We all know Bud just views them as wings, not SG and SF. During the season Bud has shown that he likes to use a 10 man rotation for the most part - with 4 of those being wing players. (In case anyone was wondering, the rest of the rotation breakdown usually was 2 PG's and 4 bigs, along with the 4 wings.)

Although we have to wonder if that might change now that Bud doesn't have Teague and Schröder to put on the floor together at times. With Schröder we had incentive to play them together to get more minutes out of Schro. But I imagine it will still stay as a 4 man wing rotation going forward, just giving a few extra minutes to a backup wing instead of the backup PG. This is also why I think Teague is less of a loss than most. Schröder averaged 20.3 minutes per game last year. The new backup PG will probably average only around 16 mpg. Perhaps even less if we run with Baze as the default PG at times like I think we might. 

Anyway, back to the 4 man wing rotation we can probably assume that those 4 (to start the season at least) would be Baze, Korver, Thabo, and Hardaway. Mainly because those 4 have experience in this system and on this roster. That would appear to freeze both Prince and Bembry out of the rotation, but we all know Bud likes to give players days off, rotate players at the end of the rotation during stretches of games, and we'll still have minor and/or major injuries that will get them on the floor during the season. I do think we'll see a lot of Prince and Bembry get some D League action - probably more Bembry than Prince. 

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/ATL/2016.html#per_game::none

 

Edited July 5, 2016 by RandomFan

[Plainview1981]

57 minutes ago, Sothron said:

I honestly think  we will be better once Bud starts Prince at SF, puts Kent at SG and lets Korver come off the bench as a sixth man. Our defense will be our selling point and we should have enough shot creators and ball movers to feed Dwight like crazy in the low post. I hope we run the old Orlando offense for him with some tweaks to get him his touches. There are very few big men that can guard Dwight in the post and I think we'll get a ton of free throws as a result.

Rashard and Hedo could shoot really good from the outside. Kent Bazemore and Thabo do not. Yeah, Korver can shoot some still, but he is one trick pony scorer... Sap might be a good 3pt shooter for a stretch 4, but he's not that good of a shooter outside of that. Surely not as good of a shooter as Howard had in Orlando.

Carroll's 3pt shooting got better each year it seemed like... And maybe the rookies will end up shooting that well sooner or later, but the outside shooting probably is going to be iffy this year. 

Edited July 5, 2016 by Hotlanta1981

[AHF]

1 hour ago, RandomFan said:

Standing reach isn't what makes for a good defender, where wingspan to get hands in passing lanes or the length to knock the ball away from a ballhandler is more influential.

I've always thought standing reach was a better indicator.  That goes to challenging shots.  You don't challenge shots with a wide chest.  Here, Bembry has longer arms than Prince which is why the gap is smaller when looking at standing reach.  Those longer arms and higher max vert may be why Bembry destroyed Prince's numbers on the boards in college.  (In their last two years of college, Bembry averaged 7.8 rpg as compared to 5.9 for Prince).

For a wing player, both are important.  For an interior player, standing reach is clearly more important than wingspan.  Bembry's longer arms translated into more steals and blocks in 3 years of college than Prince put up in 4 years of college.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

I've always thought standing reach was a better indicator.  That goes to challenging shots.  You don't challenge shots with a wide chest.  Here, Bembry has longer arms than Prince which is why the gap is smaller when looking at standing reach.  Those longer arms and higher max vert may be why Bembry destroyed Prince's numbers on the boards in college.  (In their last two years of college, Bembry averaged 7.8 rpg as compared to 5.9 for Prince).

For a wing player, both are important.  For an interior player, standing reach is clearly more important than wingspan.  Bembry's longer arms translated into more steals and blocks in 3 years of college than Prince put up in 4 years of college.

Did you take that one class at UK...hmmm what was it...oh ya, wingspan/standing reach 101?

[AHF]

57 minutes ago, Spud2Nique said:

Did you take that one class at UK...hmmm what was it...oh ya, wingspan/standing reach 101?

Nope.  Just spouting off on what measurables I've paid the most attention to over the years and the fact that Bembry's stats suggest  he has done much more with his wingspan than Prince has as far as rebounding, steals, deflections, blocks, etc.  I expect Bembry's jumper is what will hold him back early on.