The Front office does have a plan and it's not tanking

[marco102]

The 2017 - 2018 season may very well see the Hawks in the top 10 of next year's draft. I think the Hawks may take a step back next year, but will not be in for a long tank. If you listen to Bobby Marks in the link below, he thinks approximately 60% of teams will be in the luxury tax for the 2018 - 2019 season. Leaving them no room to offer FA max contracts. 

http://www.espn.com/espnradio/play?id=19797426

The Hawks may be waiting for next year, which has a much better free agent class when you look at the younger players.  A lot of teams with young players with star potential will be in cap hell and not able to match a near max or max offer by the Hawks next season.  A lot of teams will also be willing to trade some good players to sign their "better players".

http://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/2018/

So we get a top 10 draft pick, plus Minnesota's and get the young free agents.   Young free agents aren't like veterans.  They will chase the money. 

Just my two cents. I've seen a lot of panicking about if the Hawks are tanking or not tanking, and statements about the new GM not having a plan. I think he does have a plan and we just need to be patient.  As a Hawk fan we should hope for the best, because we really don't have any other choice.

[StephenHawking]

I like the idea but not the free agents. Who in that free agency has star potential? Only Embiid comes to mind. And he seems to be the driving force in all the feds process talks. I'm pretty sure he'd stay 

[marco102]

1 minute ago, StephenHawking said:

I like the idea but not the free agents. Who in that free agency has star potential? Only Embiid comes to mind. And he seems to be the driving force in all the feds process talks. I'm pretty sure he'd stay 

Gary Harris, Zach Levine, Jusuf Nurkic, Aaron Gordon (if he gets coached up).  I'm not saying any of these players will be super stars but they may develop into All stars that will get better free agents to look your way and they all are super young.  There's also a lot of players who can opt out of their contracts next year, but I can't find a list of them yet. 

[sturt]

18 minutes ago, marco102 said:

Gary Harris, Zach Levine, Jusuf Nurkic, Aaron Gordon (if he gets coached up).  I'm not saying any of these players will be super stars but they may develop into All stars that will get better free agents to look your way and they all are super young.  There's also a lot of players who can opt out of their contracts next year, but I can't find a list of them yet. 

Interesting that you begin with Harris.

Only a year ago probably, and certainly two years ago, Gary Harris was widely regarded as another scrapheap 2... came to the league with a reputation for exceptional defense but a questionable shot.

(Dang don't that sound familiar for some reason.)

Real point being... WE DON'T KNOW who will have a 2017-18 season that will re-set conventional wisdom about a player. But we can be pretty certain that there will be players, both on our own roster and on others', who will indeed be more highly regarded than they had been in the previous off-season.

[CP61]

Trust the Cawcess

[sturt]

How very talon-ted of you, @CP61

[KB21]

IMO, the problem with this idea, particularly if you are targeting restricted free agents from that 2014 draft class is that this class was one of the all time bad draft classes.  The guys I'd be the most interested in are Marcus Smart, Rodney Hood, and Kyle Anderson, and none of them really move the needle that much.  

Nikola Jokic is by far the best player in that draft class, and Denver isn't letting him go.  

[ATLBob]

If this IS part of the plan, then it's only a small step. None of those FAs are going to add 10 wins. Throw in a few rookies, only one of whom *might* be a high-lottery pick, and you are still looking at climbing into the middle and chasing an 8-10 seed in a weak East.

We need to be honest with ourselves and face the fact that this "process," if it even works, will take several years at the least.

[DS5]

2 hours ago, marco102 said:

The 2017 - 2018 season may very well see the Hawks in the top 10 of next year's draft. I think the Hawks may take a step back next year, but will not be in for a long tank. If you listen to Bobby Marks in the link below, he thinks approximately 60% of teams will be in the luxury tax for the 2018 - 2019 season. Leaving them no room to offer FA max contracts. 

http://www.espn.com/espnradio/play?id=19797426

The Hawks may be waiting for next year, which has a much better free agent class when you look at the younger players.  A lot of teams with young players with star potential will be in cap hell and not able to match a near max or max offer by the Hawks next season.  A lot of teams will also be willing to trade some good players to sign their "better players".

http://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/2018/

So we get a top 10 draft pick, plus Minnesota's and get the young free agents.   Young free agents aren't like veterans.  They will chase the money. 

Just my two cents. I've seen a lot of panicking about if the Hawks are tanking or not tanking, and statements about the new GM not having a plan. I think he does have a plan and we just need to be patient.  As a Hawk fan we should hope for the best, because we really don't have any other choice.

Plus we may be in an excellent position to trade for someone in a "Harden situation" i.e. Klay Thompson... 

[Lurker]

2 hours ago, marco102 said:

Gary Harris, Zach Levine, Jusuf Nurkic, Aaron Gordon (if he gets coached up).  I'm not saying any of these players will be super stars but they may develop into All stars that will get better free agents to look your way and they all are super young.  There's also a lot of players who can opt out of their contracts next year, but I can't find a list of them yet. 

Aaron Gordon and Zach LaVine kind of interest me in the right situation. Although I think LaVine at best is a 6th man type.

Nurkic will be staying in Portland.

Harris will likely stay in Denver.

[parfait]

3 hours ago, marco102 said:

The 2017 - 2018 season may very well see the Hawks in the top 10 of next year's draft. I think the Hawks may take a step back next year, but will not be in for a long tank. If you listen to Bobby Marks in the link below, he thinks approximately 60% of teams will be in the luxury tax for the 2018 - 2019 season. Leaving them no room to offer FA max contracts. 

http://www.espn.com/espnradio/play?id=19797426

The Hawks may be waiting for next year, which has a much better free agent class when you look at the younger players.  A lot of teams with young players with star potential will be in cap hell and not able to match a near max or max offer by the Hawks next season.  A lot of teams will also be willing to trade some good players to sign their "better players".

http://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/2018/

So we get a top 10 draft pick, plus Minnesota's and get the young free agents.   Young free agents aren't like veterans.  They will chase the money. 

Just my two cents. I've seen a lot of panicking about if the Hawks are tanking or not tanking, and statements about the new GM not having a plan. I think he does have a plan and we just need to be patient.  As a Hawk fan we should hope for the best, because we really don't have any other choice.

I agree with this in general, except for the part about the Top 10 draft pick. I really believe that Schlenk will be signing a couple of interesting young veterans this summer, that combined with Schröder, Prince, and a re-signed Hardaway, will make for an interesting and upwardly mobile team that likely scoots into the middle or back end of the playoffs in the weakened East in 2017-18.

Then in the summer of 2018, he will shoot for one of those Restricted Free Agents, such as the aforementioned Embiid, Harris, Aaron Gordon, Nurkic, or LaVine. But there's also Jabari Parker and Andrew Wiggins. And Sturt mentioned guys whose stock could increase, and such guys could include RFA's Dante Exum and Julius Randle. And the wild card could be poaching RFA Patrick McCaw from Schlenk's Warrior backyard. And on the unrestricted side there's Derrick Favors.

On top of that you add hopefully two First Round Picks in 2018. With additional young assets like that, all on good contracts, we wouldn't be far off in my opinion.

[KB21]

1 hour ago, ATLBob said:

If this IS part of the plan, then it's only a small step. None of those FAs are going to add 10 wins. Throw in a few rookies, only one of whom *might* be a high-lottery pick, and you are still looking at climbing into the middle and chasing an 8-10 seed in a weak East.

We need to be honest with ourselves and face the fact that this "process," if it even works, will take several years at the least.

Um, yeah.  I've been saying that ever since the tanking/rebuilding talk started.  This will be at least a 5 year process if everything goes right.  If Schlenk misses on a pick, it will set this entire process back 2-3 years.  I'm not anticipating any big free agent signings during this process, because top free agents are not going to a bad team.  You have to hit on the draft picks, develop those draft picks, and then convince those draft picks to sign a second contract with the team when that times comes.  Whoever the Hawks take in the 2018 draft will be on their 2nd deal before the Hawks are competitive again.  

Also, you have to take into account that everything about the prospects at the top of the draft is based upon what they are projected to become, so development is the biggest key here.  If you throw them into the deep end before they are ready, they may just drown.  These guys are 19 years old, and from a skill set standpoint, their development is remedial at best with the exception of Luka Doncic, who is by far the best prospect for the 2018 draft.  Can Michael Porter Jr develop an in between game and a post up game, because right now, his offense consists of him using his height to shoot over the defense?  His defense is nonexistant.  He's also not a very good passer when it comes to creating opportunities for others.  He's going to struggle to score when his shot isn't falling.

Will DeAndre Ayton actually give 100% effort all the time?  Will he develop his low post game to compliment his ability to shoot the ball from the perimeter?  Will his defensive awareness and focus improve?

With the exception of Doncic, these guys are at best 3 year projects when they reach the league.  Porter Jr makes me think of Joe Johnson with less ball handling ability.  That's a good player, but that isn't what you want to be very bad to get.

[tonegully]

Nothing to see here. Just because you have money doesnt mean a player will come here to a rebuilding team. Lets just all be honest we will be at the bottom for the next 5-7 years .

[KB21]

4 minutes ago, tonegully said:

Nothing to see here. Just because you have money doesnt mean a player will come here to a rebuilding team. Lets just all be honest we will be at the bottom for the next 5-7 years .

Yep.  I can already see how things are going to turn out.  The majority of the pro tankers/rebuilding effort guys will be off that wagon within 3 years.  Watch what I'm saying.  It will be a lot easier to go through this process if you just accept the fact that this is going to take time and will be very painful.

[tonegully]

Just now, KB21 said:

Yep.  I can already see how things are going to turn out.  The majority of the pro tankers/rebuilding effort guys will be off that wagon within 3 years.  Watch what I'm saying.  It will be a lot easier to go through this process if you just accept the fact that this is going to take time and will be very painful.

I agree. This front office hasnt showed the intelligence to tear a team down and rebuild. They havent shown the intelligence to build upon a 60 win team either. But for some reason people think Travis is going to build this team up and get all these great free agents here. Ive already accepted the fact that we wont even sniff the playoffs and make some noise for another decade and will signing guys like willie reed. 

[NBASupes]

Ayton

Williamson

Barrett 

[KB21]

13 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Ayton

Williamson

Barrett 

What I see when I see these players on film?

DeMarcus Cousins

Lance Stephenson

Andrew Wiggins

That's not exactly a group worth tanking to get.

[AHF]

I'm sure you can go look up YouTube clips of them today if you want.

[CP61]

5 minutes ago, KB21 said:

What I see when I see these players on film?

DeMarcus Cousins

Lance Stephenson

Andrew Wiggins

That's not exactly a group worth tanking to get.

The best center in the NBA isn't good enough? For real? I can understand the locker room issues, but there's no better center than Boogie. 

[sturt]

The vital fundamental ingredient in the recipe is, of course, luck.

If it comes early, toss all the prolonged timelines out the window.

Its nature is that it comes too late, or not at all.

So I guess I'm with that camp who saw no point being served in standing pat with Dwight, but who believed there was a place and a role for Sap in ATL if he'd have accepted, say, $25m/3 years,no options, all guaranteed... and yet also who thinks otherwise a youth movement is only rational thinking.

And that's the term I'd use.

Commit explicitly openly publicly to becoming renowned as the league's most productive player development organization,spending resources in new and creative ways, and hiring the absolute most accomplished staff anywhere... building a flourishing youth movement that over time allows you to trade vets for picks regularly, relieving the payroll of the burden, while replenishing the garden with new vigorous plants.

Player development is boring... but it is what generates the most valuable form of currency in any professional sports environment... and back to where this started, luck has a better chance of striking at the right time if you're in a perpetual state of flourishing player development.