Are We Sure ... the Hawks Know What They’re Doing?

[AHF]

1 hour ago, kg01 said:

Wait, you're saying his post doesn't mean jack squat?  That's harsh, man.

On Donc's resume, the only thing I reject is the notion that , based on his resume, he'll come into the NBA and be equally dominant.  To say it (his resume) means nothing isn't fair to say.

Only a moron would think Luka would step in and be an mvp candidate.  Nobody is saying that.

On the “jack squat” exchange, I was just parroting his language to show that of course he was being dismissive.  It is rude precisely because it is such a complete rejection without nuance or consideration.  Now we are seeing posts comparing low level euro leagues to where Doncic excelled last year as yet another means of drawing false equivalents and dismissing his success. 

I don’t dogmatically dismiss anything EasyRoc posts but the posts I see here are absolutely dismissive of Doncic’s career to date in an illogical way, imo.  

[benhillboy]

1 minute ago, kg01 said:

This is such a multi-layered situation.  Folks have got to be patient and understand what it is they're looking at.  If DAL has a better record than us, it is in no way a reflection of the Donc-v-Young decision.  As @JTB points out, they are in a ready-made situation to do well.  Certainly more so than we are ... and that's by design (for better or worse).

Also agree on Carlisle.  Given well-balanced, vet teams, he's done well.  But the total ineptitude his teams show when each and every detail isn't set before him, is more telling than people seem willing to recognize.  He doesn't develop guys, doesn't make guys any better.  Just waits for his GM to deliver a high-level team then has results ... sometimes.  Well uh ... doesn't take a genius to do that, Rick.  Also carries himself like he's gawd's gift to coaching.  Beyond arrogant.

True.  I loved that championship team but I’m a Jason Kidd fanatic, he had the Knicks playing way above their heads a couple years later as well.  I give him, Dirk, and the GM (no idea who he was) the lion’s share of credit although Carlisle did employ a Bird Celtics-type blueprint I later learned.  I just looked at Dennis Smith Jrs numbers and had to withhold my breakfast.  .395, .313, and .694?  Carlisle’s staff ain’t doing sh@t either.

[benhillboy]

Let Doncic have those numbers by AS break and Carlisle will find he and Cuban aren’t as chummy as he thought.

[HawkItus]

My take:

 

The article proves Schlenk knows what he is doing.   He has preached volume over anything.  More swings of the bat if you will.   He has also preached flexibility.  We have as many swings in the draft as anyone in the league and the flexibility to switch hit if needed for a course adjustment.  Does it work?  Who knows, but the man is working his plan.

[kg01]

6 minutes ago, AHF said:

Only a moron would think Luka would step in and be an mvp candidate.  Nobody is saying that.

On the “jack squat” exchange, I was just parroting his language to show that of course he was being dismissive.  It is rude precisely because it is such a complete rejection without nuance or consideration.  Now we are seeing posts comparing low level euro leagues to where Doncic excelled last year as yet another means of drawing false equivalents and dismissing his success. 

I don’t dogmatically dismiss anything EasyRoc posts but the posts I see here are absolutely dismissive of Doncic’s career to date in an illogical way, imo.  

You so mad, AH.  It pains me to see you like this.. 

I think you and I agree, in general.  I'm still of the opinion that the gaudy nimbers he has are inflated to a larger degree than you seem willing to accept.  I'm not saying they're meaningless or that the league was garbage or anything.

In the clips and games I watched as the draft approached, it looked like him playing against guys who had given up.  I'm thinking, 'Dude, you gonna challenge the guy's shot or just let him ... oh I see , you just gonna let 'im drive."  Next thing you know, Doncic is screaming to the crowd after a dunk.  I'm like .... eh, ok but that ... that's not gonna happen like that in the NBA.

Long story long, I stand by my assertion that he'll be Hedo/Evan Turner type.  That's fine.  There's no shame in that.  I just ... don't see transcendent in any way, shape or form.

The euro scouts I read seem to all be saying the same or something similar.  He'll contribute to winning but he won't ever be a star.

5 minutes ago, benhillboy said:

True.  I loved that championship team but I’m a Jason Kidd fanatic, he had the Knicks playing way above their heads a couple years later as well.  I give him, Dirk, and the GM (no idea who he was) the lion’s share of credit although Carlisle did employ a Bird Celtics-type blueprint I later learned.  I just looked at Dennis Smith Jrs numbers and had to withhold my breakfast.  .395, .313, and .694?  Carlisle’s staff ain’t doing sh@t either.

  I guarantee Smith Jr. will be benched a lot this season.  Why?  Well, he's not a ready-made player.  He needs development ... Carlisle don't got time for that.  Bench!

[thecampster]

12 minutes ago, kg01 said:

You so mad, AH.  It pains me to see you like this.. 

I think you and I agree, in general.  I'm still of the opinion that the gaudy nimbers he has are inflated to a larger degree than you seem willing to accept.  I'm not saying they're meaningless or that the league was garbage or anything.

In the clips and games I watched as the draft approached, it looked like him playing against guys who had given up.  I'm thinking, 'Dude, you gonna challenge the guy's shot or just let him ... oh I see , you just gonna let 'im drive."  Next thing you know, Doncic is screaming to the crowd after a dunk.  I'm like .... eh, ok but that ... that's not gonna happen like that in the NBA.

Long story long, I stand by my assertion that he'll be Hedo/Evan Turner type.  That's fine.  There's no shame in that.  I just ... don't see transcendent in any way, shape or form.

The euro scouts I read seem to all be saying the same or something similar.  He'll contribute to winning but he won't ever be a star.

  I guarantee Smith Jr. will be benched a lot this season.  Why?  Well, he's not a ready-made player.  He needs development ... Carlisle don't got time for that.  Bench!

Similar to what I've been saying all along.  You play him at the point and he's going to get destroyed. He needs to work on his shot and become a combo G/F passing wing.  But there isn't a snack cakes' chance at a weight watchers convention of him being able to guard NBA point guards.

 

[thecampster]

Just now, thecampster said:

Similar to what I've been saying all along.  You play him at the point and he's going to get destroyed. He needs to work on his shot and become a combo G/F passing wing.  But there isn't a snack cakes' chance at a weight watchers convention of him being able to guard NBA point guards.

 

I mean its easy to look amazing dunking on disinterested Pero Antic types.  But the first time he tries that nonsense on Rudy Gobert, he might qualify for PTSD meds.

[EazyRoc]

26 minutes ago, AHF said:

Only a moron would think Luka would step in and be an mvp candidate.  Nobody is saying that.

On the “jack squat” exchange, I was just parroting his language to show that of course he was being dismissive.  It is rude precisely because it is such a complete rejection without nuance or consideration.  Now we are seeing posts comparing low level euro leagues to where Doncic excelled last year as yet another means of drawing false equivalents and dismissing his success. 

I don’t dogmatically dismiss anything EasyRoc posts but the posts I see here are absolutely dismissive of Doncic’s career to date in an illogical way, imo.  

The point I was making and equally applied to one of my favorites is that the accomplishments mean nothing in respect to how that player will translate to the NBA. Due to the fact that several players have won prestigious awards in Euro leagues and in the NCAA and have been journeyman backups or worse. In and of itself, his accomplishments were unprecedented. The context I’ve been in for most of this thread has been how he will be as a NBA player. As far as I’m concerned neither NCAA PotY or other leagues awards mean anything when you’re evaluating how someone’s talent/skill will translate to the NBA. I’m not dismissing his success. I’m dismissing the notion that he’s a lock to be a great NBA player because of his past success. 

[AHF]

Evan Turner is a dumpster fire.  Hedo was at least a near All-Star for a couple of years.  Don’t he will mirror either of them.  Think his llaymaking is waayy more advanced while his shooting is much better than Turner but much worse than Turk as of today.

[kg01]

3 minutes ago, AHF said:

Evan Turner is a dumpster fire.  Hedo was at least a near All-Star for a couple of years.  Don’t he will mirror either of them.  Think his llaymaking is waayy more advanced while his shooting is much better than Turner but much worse than Turk as of today.

I'd be willing to bet you're wrong on him being much better than either.  Turner was not a dumpster fire.  He's a serviceable, second-side playmaking forward which is exactly what Doncic will be.

If I'm right, can I pick a new name for you?  It'll be Hedo Turner or Evan Turkeyglu? 

[AHF]

4 minutes ago, kg01 said:

I'd be willing to bet you're wrong on him being much better than either.  Turner was not a dumpster fire.  He's a serviceable, second-side playmaking forward which is exactly what Doncic will be.

If I'm right, can I pick a new name for you?  It'll be Hedo Turner or Evan Turkeyglu? 

Turner’s career has been a dumpster fire.  I totally stand by that.  He has been grossly overpaid every step of the way based on his college success.  When Baze got that terrible deal, I predicted Turner’s would look even worse and it absolutely does.  I wouldn’t even consider trading Baze for Turner if I wanted to win.

Again, I’m not guaranteeing Luka will be better than peak Hedo.  I’m saying they won’t mirror eachother.  They have different skills and strengths based on where Doncic is as a player now with Doncic looking much stronger as a playmaker and Turk’s peak being more dangerous as a scorer than anything you’d project for Luka in his rookie year.

[thecampster]

13 minutes ago, AHF said:

Evan Turner is a dumpster fire.  Hedo was at least a near All-Star for a couple of years.  Don’t he will mirror either of them.  Think his llaymaking is waayy more advanced while his shooting is much better than Turner but much worse than Turk as of today.

His shooting is "much" better?  Based on which stat? Evan Turner shot 30% from 3 in his NBA career. Doncic shot 31% at Euro length last year. 1% is superior at 1.6 feet closer?

[AHF]

Turner career 12.0 PER, -2.0 BPM, 0.1 VORP for a guy picked #3 and paid near max money that is dumpster fire.

Add in that career .492% TS% and 

[AHF]

3 minutes ago, thecampster said:

His shooting is "much" better?  Based on which stat? Evan Turner shot 30% from 3 in his NBA career. Doncic shot 31% at Euro length last year. 1% is superior at 1.6 feet closer?

Doncic .591% ts% (that will drop but not to Turner type deep sea depths)

[kg01]

2 minutes ago, AHF said:

Doncic .591% ts% (that will drop but not to Turner type deep sea depths)

Think not?  I mean, we have a 'bets' thread if you're feeling ... lucky.

[AHF]

2 minutes ago, kg01 said:

Think not?  I mean, we have a 'bets' thread if you're feeling ... lucky.

Bet offered - full year of avatar status.  If Doncic’s ts% over the first three years of his career is equal or lower than the first three years of Turners career you win.  If it is better, then I win.

This gives a large enough sample size to account for a major injury or other variable and to smooth out early career development or lack thereof.

[kg01]

8 minutes ago, AHF said:

Bet offered - full year of avatar status.  If Doncic’s ts% over the first three years of his career is equal or lower than the first three years of Turners career you win.  If it is better, then I win.

This gives a large enough sample size to account for a major injury or other variable and to smooth out early career development or lack thereof.

Man, I might not even be here in 3 years. 

Plus, I'm not sure that would encapsulate what we're truly discussing.  I'm saying they'll be similar players.  Not sure that's a quantifiable phenomenon.

[macdaddy]

37 minutes ago, kg01 said:

Man, I might not even be here in 3 years. 

Plus, I'm not sure that would encapsulate what we're truly discussing.  I'm saying they'll be similar players.  Not sure that's a quantifiable phenomenon.

A 3 year bet?  That's a spud2nique deal right there.  

[AHF]

36 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

A 3 year bet?  That's a spud2nique deal right there.  

Billups has a career .580% ts% but had one year with .465% due to combo of bad role and shortened season.  If you remember, I have been burned by a wrench getting thrown into a prior bet with legal issues causing me to lose a bet that was supposed to be based on play.

I was challenged here that Doncic would shoot the ball like Turner and offered a clear bet over a statistically significant period of time.  The full year avatar was intended to account for the longer duration but I’ve got no doubt that kg will still be a Hawks fan then.

[macdaddy]

5 minutes ago, AHF said:

Billups has a career .580% ts% but had one year with .465% due to combo of bad role and shortened season.  If you remember, I have been burned by a wrench getting thrown into a prior bet with legal issues causing me to lose a bet that was supposed to be based on play.

I was challenged here that Doncic would shoot the ball like Turner and offered a clear bet over a statistically significant period of time.  The full year avatar was intended to account for the longer duration but I’ve got no doubt that kg will still be a Hawks fan then.

But will he still be lucid?