FiveThirtyEight | Hawks 2018-19 will win 28, not finish last in East, and actually have 6% shot at playoffs (!)

[Sothron]

I also picked us to win 28 games this year.

[hazer]

4 hours ago, KB21 said:

It should be pointed out that FiveThirtyEight also projected 27 wins for the Hawks last year, and their CARMELO projections and how they use them to project the actual record are very conservative.   Their projections overestimated the Hawks last year, and they have done so again this year.  

It should also be pointed out that they were only off by 3 games, an acceptable deviation. Applying that same +/- of 3 games to their 2018 prediction of 28 wins (also a repeated number with many on this board) puts the Hawks anywhere from 25 to 31 wins. Which is very probable, much more so than 18.

[LamarHampton]

Whenever @KB21 gets on one of his long-dead beaten horse anti-tanking rants or incessantly goes on and on and on and on and on about how awful the Hawks are and refuses to control whatever Eeyore-esque affliction has befallen him, the voice of Steve Holman (Hawks radio announcer) pops into my head from the night when Dennis was putting up all those terrible shots and Steve just couldn't control himself anymore and said, "Oh, for the love of God!" And then i go to a different website for a few days, and life is better. 

Anyway, I'm honestly shocked that the playoff odds are only 6%. I think we will be scrappier than that; still a long shot but better than 8th seed at only 6% odds. 

Thinking (hoping?) the Mavs wind up around 7-8.

Only other thing that jumped out st me was "poor, poor Knickerbockers." Sad state of affairs from when I started watching bball back during the Ewing days. Porzingas hurt and wanting out... u.g.l.y.

[sturt]

@KB21 for someone whose supposed profession has to be pretty clear on what is "fact" versus what is "opinion," I'm really, really wondering about you. It began when you actually engaged me months ago and seemed to confound the words "subjective" and "objective" according to your desired conclusions, and this just adds to that pile of curiosity.

 

You called it a "fact." But the statement that "No credible coach is going to.... " is, inherently, an opinion.


It's infused with the premise that a good coach could never accept a job where he knew he was going to lose at first, going in.... just by virtue of taking the job, the guy defines himself as a loser.


Your theory blows up immediately as I think of a guy like Mike Krzyzewski, whose first splash into head coaching was with a team that had been losing, and losing badly prior to his arrival (Army had won 3 games in 1974).

 

What is fact is that you're always on shaky ground when you make blanket universal statements. Again, a smart guy like you should realize that, but instead, we never see you back down and acknowledge your use of hyperbole and misstatements.

 

Look back to Pierce's hire, and I was probably the first to post something like, "I wonder how many here think the new coach is something more than a bridge to the next coach." So it's not even like I don't share some of your skepticism. But skepticism is one thing. Pretending oneself to be omniscient is another. It's ridiculous to talk in such certain terms--again, whether the position is that he's a zero, or that he's HoF bound. Be accurate. State opinions, back up your opinions, but don't lead people to question your ability to reason and your command of the English language by calling something a "fact" that plainly isn't.

 

Those be my two pennies.

[hazer]

7 hours ago, sturt said:

@KB21 for someone whose supposed profession has to be pretty clear on what is "fact" versus what is "opinion," I'm really, really wondering about you. It began when you actually engaged me months ago and seemed to confound the words "subjective" and "objective" according to your desired conclusions, and this just adds to that pile of curiosity.

 

You called it a "fact." But the statement that "No credible coach is going to.... " is, inherently, an opinion.


It's infused with the premise that a good coach could never accept a job where he knew he was going to lose at first, going in.... just by virtue of taking the job, the guy defines himself as a loser.


Your theory blows up immediately as I think of a guy like Mike Krzyzewski, whose first splash into head coaching was with a team that had been losing, and losing badly prior to his arrival (Army had won 3 games in 1974).

 

What is fact is that you're always on shaky ground when you make blanket universal statements. Again, a smart guy like you should realize that, but instead, we never see you back down and acknowledge your use of hyperbole and misstatements.

 

Look back to Pierce's hire, and I was probably the first to post something like, "I wonder how many here think the new coach is something more than a bridge to the next coach." So it's not even like I don't share some of your skepticism. But skepticism is one thing. Pretending oneself to be omniscient is another. It's ridiculous to talk in such certain terms--again, whether the position is that he's a zero, or that he's HoF bound. Be accurate. State opinions, back up your opinions, but don't lead people to question your ability to reason and your command of the English language by calling something a "fact" that plainly isn't.

 

Those be my two pennies.

Google the words “doctor” and “God complex” ?

[kg01]

7 hours ago, LamarHampton said:

Whenever @KB21 gets on one of his long-dead beaten horse anti-tanking rants or incessantly goes on and on and on and on and on about how awful the Hawks are and refuses to control whatever Eeyore-esque affliction has befallen him, the voice of Steve Holman (Hawks radio announcer) pops into my head from the night when Dennis was putting up all those terrible shots and Steve just couldn't control himself anymore and said, "Oh, for the love of God!" And then i go to a different website for a few days, and life is better. 

Haha.  Holman hated Dennis.  He just stopped trying to hide it at the end.  Hilarious.

7 hours ago, sturt said:

@KB21 for someone whose supposed profession has to be pretty clear on what is "fact" versus what is "opinion," I'm really, really wondering about you.  Blah, blah, blah ... words, words words ..........

Those be my two pennies.

I can't 'like' your diatribe enough.  There's some delusion going on in that gentleman.

Nice to see you turn the deluge of words on someone other than me.  Heh.

[sturt]

55 minutes ago, kg01 said:

deluge of words

Okay, you brought it up, so I just have  to say this about that...

Honestly, I worry about this generation's demand for sound-byte-logic. Short snippy compelling statements are great when they can be had, but they can't always be had. We've given up newspapers with columns and columns and pages and pages of daily information coming to our doorsteps, and traded those for basically whatever can fit into a 15" window. The patience to read and follow a path of reasoning is getting away from us, and in that environment, only the simplest shallowest logic is able to survive.

And @kg01, there really was just the one time when I "deluged" you, right? I don't intend to be overbearing, but maybe I am.

 

Okay, I think my tab is a nickel now. I'll be quiet.

[kg01]

5 minutes ago, sturt said:

Okay, you brought it up, so I just have  to say this about that...

Honestly, I worry about this generation's demand for sound-byte-logic. Short snippy compelling statements are great when they can be had, but they can't always be had. We've given up newspapers with columns and columns and pages and pages of daily information coming to our doorsteps, and traded those for basically whatever can fit into a 15" window. The patience to read and follow a path of reasoning is getting away from us, and in that environment, only the simplest shallowest logic is able to survive.

And @kg01, there really was just the one time when I "deluged" you, right? I don't intend to be overbearing, but maybe I am.

Okay, I think my tab is a nickel now. I'll be quiet.

I'm probably older than you so it's not necessarily about "generation".  My disdain for words is borne of different demons, I suppose.

I actually share your concern for the manner in which technological advancements have destroyed the attention span of America but that's a topic for another day.

[KB21]

9 hours ago, sturt said:

@KB21 for someone whose supposed profession has to be pretty clear on what is "fact" versus what is "opinion," I'm really, really wondering about you. It began when you actually engaged me months ago and seemed to confound the words "subjective" and "objective" according to your desired conclusions, and this just adds to that pile of curiosity.

 

You called it a "fact." But the statement that "No credible coach is going to.... " is, inherently, an opinion.


It's infused with the premise that a good coach could never accept a job where he knew he was going to lose at first, going in.... just by virtue of taking the job, the guy defines himself as a loser.


Your theory blows up immediately as I think of a guy like Mike Krzyzewski, whose first splash into head coaching was with a team that had been losing, and losing badly prior to his arrival (Army had won 3 games in 1974).

 

What is fact is that you're always on shaky ground when you make blanket universal statements. Again, a smart guy like you should realize that, but instead, we never see you back down and acknowledge your use of hyperbole and misstatements.

 

Look back to Pierce's hire, and I was probably the first to post something like, "I wonder how many here think the new coach is something more than a bridge to the next coach." So it's not even like I don't share some of your skepticism. But skepticism is one thing. Pretending oneself to be omniscient is another. It's ridiculous to talk in such certain terms--again, whether the position is that he's a zero, or that he's HoF bound. Be accurate. State opinions, back up your opinions, but don't lead people to question your ability to reason and your command of the English language by calling something a "fact" that plainly isn't.

 

Those be my two pennies.

It is 100% fact.  I don't misspeak.

[macdaddy]

This seems like another year where the west is vastly superior.  It's getting old but at the same time it makes things easier for the Hawks. 

[benhillboy]

Haven’t gotten into the 538 craze just yet. They’re cool for headlines but I wouldn’t delve into their stats like I would 82games, teamrankings, or The Ref.  Injuries will alter all of these projections, trades a lot less, so a grain of salt should be taken.  Me and Spuddy predicted 27 so they’re following the proper guidelines lol.  How weird is it gonna be watching the Spurs struggle for the first time since some of our posters were born?

[Duff_Man]

1 hour ago, KB21 said:

It is 100% fact.  I don't misspeak.

Tell us again how last year's team was going to be the worst in NBA history.

[High5]

25 minutes ago, Duff_Man said:

Tell us again how last year's team was going to be the worst in NBA history.

Or when he said the Sixers wouldn't make the playoffs, then that they wouldn't win 50, and then that wouldn't beat Miami. The guy knows a lot about college basketball (at least I don't watch enough to dispute him), but he's out of his element when it comes to the NBA. I'm guessing the goalposts will be airlifted to a different country or he'll simply disappear in a year or two. 

[High5]

As for the topic, this makes me feel worse about my 28 win prediction. I don't think they nailed any win total last season even though they were within a game or two on a few. 

[Spud2nique]

Is 538 a site made by Braaaaaaaddd or some other prick. Ya, he’s no doctor why are we still calling him a doctor, might as well call @kg01 a lawyer. Sorry you got in the way of friendly fire ?. At least it was friendly, unlike ?’s..

[kg01]

3 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

Is 538 a site made by Braaaaaaaddd or some other prick. Ya, he’s no doctor why are we still calling him a doctor, might as well call @kg01 a lawyer. Sorry you got in the way of friendly fire ?. At least it was friendly, unlike ?’s..

It's ok.  I got no problem being collateral damage for a cause.  At least I died for something, right?

And totally agree that burd's jabs are definitely not good-natured.  #MeanGurlz

[Spud2nique]

14 minutes ago, kg01 said:

It's ok.  I got no problem being collateral damage for a cause.  At least I died for something, right?

And totally agree that burd's jabs are definitely not good-natured.  #MeanGurlz

Only the best movie EVERRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!! You, me and @LamarHampton should all  get weird in the sac one weekend...

 

 ?...

That sounded way better in my head...

[KB21]

1 hour ago, Duff_Man said:

Tell us again how last year's team was going to be the worst in NBA history.

Why would I say it again when I never said it in the first place?

[LamarHampton]

1 hour ago, Spud2nique said:

Only the best movie EVERRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!! You, me and @LamarHampton should all  get weird in the sac one weekend...

 

 ?...

That sounded way better in my head...

Um, I do not accept your sexual advance. #metoo

[kg01]

13 minutes ago, LamarHampton said:

Um, I do not accept your sexual advance. #metoo

Haha ... gottt eeemmmm .... er didn't gottt eemmmmm