Trae Young - The Case for Rookie of the Year

[NBASupes]

 

 

A hating ass hater wrote: 

Quote

Luka stanley wrote: 

Lets define facts that can be verifed:

1. Doncic outperforms Trae in almost all raw and advanced statistical categories by significant margin, the one exception being assist numbers. It doesn't even matter if one were to dispute validity of some of them, because all point in favour of Doncic.

2. Trae plays in the East, while Doncic plays in the West. It's a well known fact that Eastern conference is of inferior quality this year and has been that way in the past years. From that we can conclude that not only does Doncic produce better statistical numbers, he produces them against superior competition. ( More games played against teams from the same conference. )

3. Doncic has won all the rookie of the month awards in the West, while Trae has failed to the same in the East.

4. The Dallas Mavericks lost there 6th man in JJ Barea to injurie and traded away the starting unit, outside of Doncic. Before that there starting point guard D. Smith, decided to sit several games in anticipation of trade. Mavs lost their second, third, fourth, fifth and sixth best player. One could expect change of that magnitude to influence performance of individual players and the team, and so it has. Despite this, Mavs are still several wins better than Hawks. Mavs led by Doncic outperformed Hawks before the trade so badly, that despite losing half a team, they are still ahead of them by wins, while playing against better opposition.

5. Assist numbers. Doncic started playing as a point forward during the month of december. Before that he played more off the ball role. At the same time he shared ball handling duties with two point guards. Doncic only became primary ball handler after JJ Barea injury, which happened in the middle of january. From that we can conclude, that Doncic would have had more opportunity to put up assist numbers, if he had been primary ball handler from the start of the season. This asercition can be backed up by the fact, that Doncic posted up several triple doubles and was close to several more in time period since the injury.

6. Defence difference. Doncic is a positive 0 on defense, which means that most of the time he doesn't hurt his team, while being on the floor. Trae is by all available metrics one of the worst defenders in the NBA and has to be a significant plus no offense, just to offset his lack of defense.

7. Clutch time performace, game on the line. Doncic is one of the best players in clutch time.

I wrote this as well as AHF: 

Quote

- From AHF

1. "Trae Jan / Feb > Doncic Jan / Feb.

Trae gets the win for January based on scoring efficiency for me. Check out the raw numbers for February:

Trae:
280 points on .565% TS% (Note: Almost 50% more points scored with similar efficiency)
111 assists
2.8 A/TO Ratio
51 rebounds
8 steals 


Luka:
195 points on .577% TS% 
59 assists
1.59 A/TO Ratio
75 rebounds
2 steals

It is Trae in a landslide for February. Way more production and a huge gap in that ball control for the month. Luka gets docked for missing games and justly so.

Do you know that actually playing more games means contributing more? 

Seriously, what am I supposed to do with that? Of course Luka should be docked for taking games off and for playing less (whether by schedule, injury or coach's decision).

Trae is producing a ton more and his team is winning more. That "his team trending towards winning more and not towards losing more" part can't be overlooked either for awards (note the impact winning has on All-NBA and All-Star selections for reference). 

Even on a per minute basis, Young is more efficient offensively in January when you factor in turnovers (Doncic is averaging almost 5 per game in February by far his worst month of the year). It is Trae for the month of February easily and January is more of a debate where reasonable minds can differ. For 2018, it is Luka in a landslide.

Lastly, You keep pointing to ROY when I'm saying it is Luka easily for the entire season given where things are today and that has nothing to do with the monthly analysis. 

The winning issue is a team based issue not a Luka based issue. Voters disproportionately give awards to players from teams that outperform and disproportionately ignore players from teams that underperform. Atlanta has won 42% of games in February and 32% for the rest of the season - Trae's hot play has resulted in a roughly 1/3 increase in winning %. Dallas has won 40% of games in February and 45% on the rest of the season so his February has resulted in more losses for the team than normal. This is also where skipping games comes into play because it has hurt his team's win total.

So we have one player who has:

* 50% more points on similar efficiency
* 100% more assists
* A 50% better A/TO ratio
* 300% more steals
* 33% fewer rebounds

And that player's team is winning substantially more often in February versus a player on the downside of all those stats other than rebounding and whose team is on a down tick for the month (basically walking away from the playoff race over the course of the month).

As I mentioned, offensively (and offense is the big driver for these awards) Trae has also been better on a rate basis because of the turnovers for Doncic. That is reflected in their offensive ratings for the month:

* Trae 118 offensive rating - 108 offensive rating for Luka

(Notably, Trae also has the better offensive rating for January based on his big edge in scoring efficiency but it is closer)

They will both win rookie for the month for their conference but Young is the one with the better February resume. Being the second best rookie in February is no shame just like it isn't a shame for Trae fans to admit he is behind Doncic for ROY based on the year to date."

This doesn't even include March where Trae has been VASTLY superior so far.

 

From me: 

2. Hawks are 11-14 v. the West. The Hawks personnel matches up better v. the Western teams which tend to be pace centric. While the Mavs are 14-26 v. the West. Not to mention, Dallas had a squad full of quality vets like DeAndre Jordan, Harrison Barnes and Wes Matthews with a stud like Dennis Smith Jr. who was taken 12 slots ahead of John Collins for most of the season. These teams had completely different personnel timing and for the Hawks to be where they are is a testament to player development and internal improvement from all of the players including Trae who is only ascending from here. 

3. Trae should have won December. He did not get it simply due to his terrible November and this was a punishment as they felt he didn't earn it but was the only person qualified in November and like I said, this is the only argument you have over Trae and that will soon end as Ayton will be player of the month for March so this point will die soon. 

4. Be my guest, the Hawks have had injuries all year, the one constant is Trae who happens to be the conductor and we don't skip a beat without them in the lineup. Our 6th man at the start of the year is now playing for the Raptors right now. He like J.J. isn't coming back this year. We have a G-Leaguer, not the NCAA player of the year last season, in his place and still productive and still winning games. 

5. Since what you noted, he has had more opportunities since the J.J. injury, his assists are 6.7 since 1/11/19 and turnovers have been 3.8. Before that, it was 5 APG and 3.2 TOV which is on par to be honest with what it was before the injury. Then add the DSJ trade, 6.3 APG to 4.1 TOV. That's not much of an improvement. In fact, he regressed. Not seeing how 5 is a fact like the other four "facts" above. 

6. Trae's season defensive rating is 112.9 with 106.61 PACE which is the 10th in the entire league in PACE for players with more than 50 games played thus far. Luka is 108.8 with 101.71 PACE which is 149th in PACE. Since the trade of Smith 1/28, his PACE went down to 99.90 and his defensive rating to 110.6. His net rating for the season was -2.5 but is -8.8 since the Smith Jr trade till now. As for Trae, his defensive rating was a 116.8 at a PACE of 104.86 during the same period of time as the Smith Jr trade to now. Not only is that on par with his Hawk teammates and other Hawk starters but it's not awful at all when you see their offensive rating which has lead the NBA since All Star break by a large margin. His defensive rating needs to be looked at in scope to how we play and our youth more than if he is bad or good and yes, defensively, he is bad, especially off the ball but he is solid on the ball and has the defensive potential to be at least a net 0 and maybe even okay depending on the personnel decisions from here. 

The numbers look terrible for Luka especially after the Smith trade. He went from a defensive 0 to a defensive nightmare. His teammates have been defensive nightmares too so he is not along since the Smith Jr. trade but the Barnes trade is really what killed Luka because he has been next level awful in that time period defensively. 387th in the NBA since the Barnes trade with a DefRtg of 115.7 and a PACE of 99.70. This is extremely terrible. This is the worst for a sub 100 PACE in the NBA. No one who gets constant minutes has been worse. https://stats.nba.com/players/advanced/?sort=DEF_RATING&dir=1&CF=MIN*GE*15&Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&DateFrom=02%2F07%2F2019

7. Luka is great at times in the 4th QT and he definitely has Luka Magic at times but he's a net 0 +/- while Trae Young is a +1. Him and Trae are both average 1 3PA in the clutch but Luka is 32.3 while Trae is 37%. Luka is 15-17 in the clutch while Trae is .500% at 14-14. Luka is averaging 3 PPG in the clutch while Trae is averaging 3.4. Luka FG% is 48.5% while Trae's is 40.6 while at the FT line, Luka is shooting a paltry 66.7% while Trae is shooting 84.8% while getting to the line more as well. TrAeTL is a more powerful potion in the clutch than Luka Magic. 

https://stats.nba.com/players/clutch-traditional/?sort=FG3A&dir=-1

[enrique]

Here was my feeble attempt in another forum for Trae as ROY (although I believe this year should be Co-ROY). After your thoughts, mine seem a little iffy. 

"I am over 50 and this is the most memorable and closest Rookie of the Year contest in my lifetime. As a lifelong Hawks fan and someone who coveted Luka Doncic, I looked to dislike and rant about Atlanta screwing another draft (cue up Marvin Williams/Chris Paul thread). Early season it was easy to find spots to pick at in Trae’s game. Interestingly there were also things Trae was doing that I had not seen many NBA players ever do…some of the passes, fakes, and bombs that actually caught my eye. It didn’t excuse some of the stone-cold shooting averages early on, but it at least made me think that in a few years Atlanta might have a serviceable starter for 6-8 years at the point. But let me jump to my point…I want to make a case for Trae Young as ROY. In fact, I will say that the case for Trae is as solid as Luka’s case. I have been calling for a co-ROY since I began looking at this closer over the past 3 weeks. I won't address your statement that Luka has outperformed Trae since the All-Star Game. But here are my thoughts:

1) Rookie of the Year is an award for an entire season. It should not reward the last month of a season. It should not reward the first month of a season. It should not reward the first half of the season. It should not reward the last half of the season. It should look at an entire season…all 82 games.

2) When players average at least 29-30 minutes per game, it is always preferable to list their performances in per36, rather than perGame. If players, play less than 25 (or so) minutes, the per36 can skew the numbers tremendously. For Trae (averaging a little more than 30 min. a game) and Luka (averaging a little more than 32 min. a game) a per36 comparison is preferable.

3) In playing positions in the NBA, PG or C are listed as the most difficult position to play. For Centers the argument is because of the physical demands and contact that surround play. For the PG, it is because they are the primary facilitator, handler, etc. (similar to QB in football, setter in Volleyball,…). For our comparisons, Trae is 100% point guard and Luka (according to Basketball-reference) is listed as 71% SG, 21% SF, and 8% PG. In other words, Trae is playing a more difficult position in the NBA by any historic analysis of basketball.

Advantage: Trae

4) Historic accomplishments do matter and help frame whether a particular season is noteworthy beyond a simple comparison between peers. In this case both Luka and Trae have amazing resumes. Luka has had 24 double-doubles (ranked #71 all-time for rookies), 8 triple-doubles (ranked #3 all-time for rookies), and has posted a career high in points of 35 twice (ranked #181 all-time). Trae has had 30 double-doubles (ranked #51 all-time), 1 triple-double (tied for #25 all-time), and has posted a career high in points of 49 and 3 other games of 36, 36, 35 (tied for #3 all-time). Luka averaged a double-double against 3 NBA teams his rookie season. Trae averaged a double-double against 7 teams his rookie season. Luka became just the second rookie in history to record 1500 points, 500 rebounds, and 400 assists. The other player…Oscar Robertson. Trae Young became the youngest player and second rookie in history to make over 1,500 points, 600 assists and 300 rebounds. The other player…Oscar Robertson againJTrae is the youngest player in NBA history to post over a 40% assist percentage. He Trae is also the youngest player to post 15+ assists in a single game. Trae is youngest to make a 45 point/15+ assist double/double. Youngest in NBA history (by almost 2 years) to average 19ppg/8 apg/3rpg. Youngest player to notch more than 3 30 point/10 assist games in a season. Cool thing is he did it 7 times. Second most in NBA history. Trae also is the youngest player to record back-to-back 30pt/10ast games. There are only two rookies that have ever done it, but Trae stands alone also because he did it twice in one season!!! He is also youngest to record back-to-back games of 25pts/10ast/5rbs. Others who accomplished the same thing as a rookie are Michael Jordan, Chris Paul, and Steve Francis. One last mark for Trae is that from ABA and NBA seasons, only 18 players of any age have averaged more than 8 assists per game while also averaging at least 1.9 3pt per game. Not only does Trae Young join the ranks of Stephen Curry, James Harden, Nick Van Exel, Deron Williams, Damon Stoudamire, Baron Davis, Russell Westbrook, Tim Hardaway, Chauncey Billups, Jason Kidd, Steve Nash, Chris Paul, Gary Payton, LeBron James and Kyle Lowry. He did so 2 years earlier than anyone else. He did it 5 years earlier than Stephen Curry, 7 years earlier than James Harden, 8 years earlier than Russell Westbrook, 11 years earlier than Chris Paul, 12 years earlier than Steve Nash, and 14 years earlier than LeBron! Now that’s good company!

Advantage: Slight Trae

5) Here are the per game totals from the rookie season.

Luka for season:

FG%: 42.7% 3pt% 32.7% FT%: 71.3% OR: 1.2 DR: 6.6 TRB: 7.8 AST: 6:0 STL: 1.1 BLK: 0.3 TOV: 3.4 PF: 1.9 MIN: 32.2 PTS: 21.2

 

Trae for season:

FG%: 41.8% 3pt% 32.4% FT%: 82.9% OR: 0.8 DR: 2.9 TRB: 3.7 AST: 8:1 STL: 0.9 BLK: 0.2 TOV: 3.8 PF: 1.7 MIN: 30.9 PTS: 19.1

 

Advantage: Luka

 

6) Here are the raw totals for the season: 

Luka:

TRB: 563, AST: 429, PTS: 1526 

Trae: 

TRB: 301, AST: 653, PTS: 1549 

Advantage: Trae

 

5) So here are the Per36 averages for the players for the season. These stats are not one sided at all. Trae’s numbers are excellent. So are Luka's.

These are too close to call. It depends on valuing playmaking over rebounding.

Luka:
OR:1.3 DR: 7.4 TR:8.7 AST:6.7 STL:1.2 BLK: 0.4 TOV:3.8 PF:2.1 PTS:23.7

Trae:
OR:0.9 DR:3.4 TR:4.3 AST: 9.4 STL:1 0 BLK: 0.2 TOV: 4.4 PF: 2.0 PTS: 22.3

Advantage: Tie

6) Luka has missed 10 games this season. Trae has missed 1 game. Again, this award goes to the impact a Rookie makes for the entire season. Every game Luka sits is a game that he is not participating in the actual season. So we can either toss out Trae’s 9 worst games and then do our averages, or we can consider the entire season which Trae has left his mark.

Advantage: Trae

7) The last part of the argument for Trae is that no one predicted that the Hawks would come close to 30 games this season. They simply didn’t have the talent. In fact, losing Schröder (leading scorer at over 19 ppg and assist man) off of a 24-win team led to cellar predictions and 22 games max. Thanks to the impact of Trae, Atlanta has over-performed. Without Trae, Atlanta went 0-1, while we can see how Dallas has performed without Luka. They are surprisingly 5-5 without him. Interestingly on his most recent triple double that “insured” his ROY trophy, while he was on the court his team was -8. The stat line was nice, but obviously it shouldn’t “insure” his trophy.

Advantage: Trae

While I don’t expect Trae to win ROY, it is as rational as Luka winning the ROY. Luka and Trae have both had historic seasons as rookies. The most reasonable and rational decision, however, is for a co-ROY. When you look back at the Francis/Brand or the Hill/Kidd seasons the disparity between the players stats is striking.

The Hill/Kidd season is positionally very similar to this year. The center vs, pg debate for Brand vs. Francis was really difficult in 2001.

Here are the stat lines for Hill/Kidd…per36 of course
Hill for season:
FG%: 47.7% 3pt% 14.8% 2pt% 48.6% FT%: 73.2% OR:1.7 DR: 4.3 TR: 6.0 AST: 4.7 STL:1.7 BLK: 0.8 TOV: 2.7 PF:2.7 PTS: 18.7

Kidd for season:
FG%: 38.5% 3pt%: 27.2% 2pt%: 43.3% FT%: 69.8% OR: 2.1 DR: 3.8 TR: 5.8 AST: 8.2 STL:2.0 BLK: 0.3 TOV: 3.4 PF: 2 PTS: 12.4

Why in the world would anyone even consider giving Kidd some votes?
1) PG is geometrically harder to play than SG/SF.
2) Kidd only missed 3 games while Grant missed 10

Obviously this year’s race for ROY is 10x closer than 1995 (or any other year for that matter). I am good either way. Both are deserving, but neither is more than the other. 
That is why I am (and have been for a while) a proponent of co-ROY.

 

Edited June 24, 2019 by enrique

[NBASupes]

Amazing post @enrique

[Spud2nique]

It’s tomorrow night right? Oh man. Bring home the hardware Trae!  

[JTB]

I’m not even being a hater I really believe Trae should win it . That bullshit about Luka doing it all season long is false. Lukas numbers started dipping end of December right when Trae’s numbers started to increase.

and since the award is based on offense anyways I definitely believe Trae is better than Luka on that end in scoring and assists. Total points accounted for Trae lead by a large margin to end the season.

[AHF]

  Thought he had actually won from the title.  I was like “wow!  Can’t believe it.  That is great for Trae and the Hawks...” then opened the thread to find a couple good posts from Squawkers but that the real award hasn’t been announced.  Debbie Downer moment.  (Counting down seconds until kg or spud bring the gif).

[NBASupes]

Just now, AHF said:

  Thought he had actually won from the title.  I was like “wow!  Can’t believe it.  That is great for Trae and the Hawks...” then opened the thread to find a couple good posts from Squawkers but that the real award hasn’t been announced.  Debbie Downer moment.  (Counting down seconds until kg or spud bring the gif).

You can edit the title to make it better

[AHF]

6 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

You can edit the title to make it better

I enjoyed the content.  Wasn't persuaded off thinking it is Luka's to lose but good stuff.  I changed the title so let me know if you think it is ok.  It is your post so will keep it with whatever you would like.

[Sothron]

Last year should have been co ROY. This season should be co ROY. I fully expect Doncic to win this. The Hawks don't receive national media attention esp. the first three months of last season. It wasn't until Trae really started putting up unreal numbers that you finally saw the Hawks get some kind of attention.

[AHF]

I'm totally down for co-ROY.  I have a feeling they will be compared for the rest of their careers and both will have high enough highs that it remains an invigorating comparison.  Might as well start it off like this now.

[Spud2nique]

1 minute ago, AHF said:

I'm totally down for co-ROY.  I have a feeling they will be compared for the rest of their careers and both will have high enough highs that it remains an invigorating comparison.  Might as well start it off like this now.

Co-sign co-rookie. 

[mcleitsy]

2 hours ago, Sothron said:

Last year should have been co ROY. This season should be co ROY. I fully expect Doncic to win this. The Hawks don't receive national media attention esp. the first three months of last season. It wasn't until Trae really started putting up unreal numbers that you finally saw the Hawks get some kind of attention.

That should be the metric. Trae actually got us some national attention....should be enough to get ROTY
 

[Atlantaholic]

I don't think there's much of a chance he beats Doncic. Trae was a better player for the majority of the year last year, but every voter will look at overall numbers and there's no question that Doncic had the better year overall statistically. If Trae hadn't had the abysmal first month and a half it would have been a toss-up. 

Regardless, I'm actually low-key glad Trae won't get the award... I know I know what kind of fan am I, right? Well, hear me out: Do you'll remember what a chip on his shoulder Trae had last year?? Well, once he loses the award to Doncic you can expect that rocket up his butt to go into overdrive next year and probably even beyond that. Trae has that Kobe Bryant / MJ mentality where he has an obsession with being the best and any perceived snub becomes fuel to his fire.  Can't wait for Trae to take out his frustration on the league next year with all of his shiny new toys running the floor alongside him. 

 

 

Edited June 24, 2019 by Atlantaholic

[HawkItus]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fYedOLXJbDA&fbclid=IwAR1Yyz19jxKGOhSndxVqbLq2VI_oqSq38WnRQyorNL74aZ03nREiNLMm00E&app=desktop

Edited June 24, 2019 by HawkItus

[hawkman]

My reason for wanting Co Rookie Of The year or even Rookie Of The Year outright are purely selfish and petty. I just want to see the resulting meltdown after all the trash talking Hawks fans had to endure this season.

[NBASupes]

4 minutes ago, HawkItus said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fYedOLXJbDA&fbclid=IwAR1Yyz19jxKGOhSndxVqbLq2VI_oqSq38WnRQyorNL74aZ03nREiNLMm00E&app=desktop

This link isn't working

[HawkItus]

https://youtu.be/fYedOLXJbDA

1 minute ago, NBASupes said:

This link isn't working

 

[NBASupes]

 

[AHawks89]

Just missed it. Trae is about to take it to another level! 

[NBASupes]

Trae, we need 50 wins next year