The John Collins suspension (and other thoughts)

[bleachkit]

19 hours ago, benhillboy said:

I would never claim to have the patience a good GM needs, yall better than me.  All I know is a couple inches disappeared from his vert.  Still great, but they ain’t Early Blake Griffin-stupid anymore.  Thankfully in the short term it hasn’t affected his shot blocking (super straight with 1.7), field goal percentage, and dunk total/ frequency.

It's really hard to jump like that over a whole season, the landing puts a lot of stress on your knees and feet.

[Spud2nique]

4 minutes ago, PSSSHHHRRR87 said:

No, I said 5-6 years until we're contender status... I said 2-3 seasons to be making noise

This timeline is spread to far apart for today’s game and free agency. If we are getting in the playoffs next year we can’t hope to be contenders 6 years after that. That might have been the case in the 80’s but too much movement. We get in the playoffs next year, we better hope to be in the finals by 2023. 

[bleachkit]

10 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

This timeline is spread to far apart for today’s game and free agency. If we are getting in the playoffs next year we can’t hope to be contenders 6 years after that. That might have been the case in the 80’s but too much movement. We get in the playoffs next year, we better hope to be in the finals by 2023. 

To illustrate your point, 6 years ago our team was Teague, Milsap, Horford, Korver, Dennis as a rookie, Bud in his first season as a head coach. We even had 76ers GM Elton Brand on the squad as a back up big. 6 years is an eternity in the NBA.

[KB21]

On 2/24/2020 at 8:30 AM, PSSSHHHRRR87 said:

I understand that we want to see progress and to get our guys some playoff experience, but all I hear with "let's make the playoffs as an 8th seed" ish is "let get back on the treadmill". There is no worse place to be in sports than stuck in the middle.

Being in the lottery every year is FAR WORSE than being on the so called playoff treadmill.

[KB21]

Also, it’s beyond stupid to even want to tank the rest of this season to maximize draft position in this draft.  Not only is there not a single player available that will help the Hawks in 2021, other teams are low on this draft as a whole.  There’s a reason Golden State wanted a 2021 pick in the Russell/Wiggins trade.  They didn’t want two first round picks in this draft. 

The value for having a high pick in this draft isn’t going to be much.  There isn’t going to be a big market for a high lottery pick in this draft.

[Watchman]

On 2/24/2020 at 9:30 AM, PSSSHHHRRR87 said:

I understand that we want to see progress and to get our guys some playoff experience, but all I hear with "let's make the playoffs as an 8th seed" ish is "let get back on the treadmill". There is no worse place to be in sports than stuck in the middle.

You're not expecting us to go from winning 20% of our games to the finals all in a single season are you? Being the eighth seed does not necessarily equate to being back on the treadmill. It's just a stop along the way.

[PSSSHHHRRR87]

8 hours ago, Watchman said:

You're not expecting us to go from winning 20% of our games to the finals all in a single season are you? Being the eighth seed does not necessarily equate to being back on the treadmill. It's just a stop along the way.

Not at all, but this season is lost and I see nothing positive from making a run for the playoffs and getting the 8th seed. At least a lottery pick has value. It's comparable to the Falcons winning out this past season... What did that actually accomplish beside saving Quinn and TD's job?

22 hours ago, Spud2nique said:

This timeline is spread to far apart for today’s game and free agency. If we are getting in the playoffs next year we can’t hope to be contenders 6 years after that. That might have been the case in the 80’s but too much movement. We get in the playoffs next year, we better hope to be in the finals by 2023. 

I agree to this partly, but there are plenty of examples in the modern NBA where a team made the playoffs for consecutive years and then won a title. GSW, Dallas, and Toronto are examples... I suspect Houston could be added to this list in 2020 and I'd throw in the Kobe-era Lakers going six years between championships. I'm not saying there won't be any changes made between now and five years from now. I'm sure there'll be some retooling and one or more of Huerter, Hunter, Reddish, Capela, or Collins will not be here.

[Buzzard]

16 hours ago, KB21 said:

Also, it’s beyond stupid to even want to tank the rest of this season to maximize draft position in this draft.  Not only is there not a single player available that will help the Hawks in 2021, other teams are low on this draft as a whole.  There’s a reason Golden State wanted a 2021 pick in the Russell/Wiggins trade.  They didn’t want two first round picks in this draft. 

The value for having a high pick in this draft isn’t going to be much.  There isn’t going to be a big market for a high lottery pick in this draft.

I think that makes this a great draft for the Hawks. Schlenk is probably not looking for a NBA ready prospect in this draft. A high ceiling prospect that can ride the pine some and be developed slowly is probably what he has his eye on.

My reasoning is simple: next season is the year we get some solid role players to play behind: Trae, Huerter, Reddish, Hunter, Collins, Capela.

I like in alphabetical order:

Anthony, Ball, Edwards, Haliburton, Maxey, Okongwu, Toppin, Wiseman.

I am no scout and trust Schlenk a lot more than the internet wannabe's or me; so if Schlenk takes any of these players, I will not complain. Prospects are assets and unlike Ainge who sits on his, Schlenk has shown he is not shy about making moves.

I like Bey out of Villanova as a sleeper a lot. A lottery pick is to much but I think someone is going to get great value with him in the 15 - 20 range. Much like the value in Clarke last season.

Edited February 26, 2020 by Buzzard

[KB21]

15 hours ago, Watchman said:

You're not expecting us to go from winning 20% of our games to the finals all in a single season are you? Being the eighth seed does not necessarily equate to being back on the treadmill. It's just a stop along the way.

Everyone that supports this rebuild believes that.   They think the team will be able to flip a switch and become championship contenders.  

[AHF]

17 hours ago, KB21 said:

Everyone that supports this rebuild believes that.   They think the team will be able to flip a switch and become championship contenders.  

I'm personally convinced that Paul Millsap, Dennis Schröder, THJr and Dwight Howard would have been a championship contender.

[High5]

20 hours ago, KB21 said:

Everyone that supports this rebuild believes that.   They think the team will be able to flip a switch and become championship contenders.  

You're the one who believes a mediocre, capped out team can magically turn into a contender if they believe hard enough. Maybe we could have drafted Air Bud with the 19th pick since you think the NBA is a Disney movie.

[KB21]

18 minutes ago, High5 said:

You're the one who believes a mediocre, capped out team can magically turn into a contender if they believe hard enough. Maybe we could have drafted Air Bud with the 19th pick since you think the NBA is a Disney movie.

Apparently, I'm the only one that knows being in the playoffs is a lot better than being in the lottery.

[Gray Mule]

One of my father's favorite Quotes:

"Blessed is he who expects nothing for he shall not be disappointed!"

Some posters here have high hopes for our beloved Hawk team.  We know that almost every Hawk who we expect to be around for a while is still young and still learning and improving.  We really expect some of them to become very, very good.

Other posters can see no way that this team gets much better.  The players and coaches are as good right now as they are ever going to be.  The Hawks would be better if they could all be healthy at one time.

Really, I suppose, the Hawks are somewhere in between.  Not as bad as the pessimist think and not as good as the optimist believes they are capable of being.

[AHF]

30 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Apparently, I'm the only one that knows being in the playoffs is a lot better than being in the lottery.

We would  have missed the playoffs and been in the lottery with that team anyway.  They had the metrics of a losing record that season (before we would have added ~$40M in salary just to bring them back) and were lucky to make the playoffs that last year together even with Bud coaching them.  The difference is that we have drafted Trae, Hunter, Cam, etc. whereas we would have been in the range of guys like Miles Bridges, Jerome Washington and Romeo Langford.

[KB21]

41 minutes ago, AHF said:

We would  have missed the playoffs and been in the lottery with that team anyway.  They had the metrics of a losing record that season (before we would have added ~$40M in salary just to bring them back) and were lucky to make the playoffs that last year together even with Bud coaching them.  The difference is that we have drafted Trae, Hunter, Cam, etc. whereas we would have been in the range of guys like Miles Bridges, Jerome Washington and Romeo Langford.

Even if that team had dipped into the lottery, it would have been a one year stay in the lottery.  I'd be more than willing to take my chances with that team minus Dwight Howard with a young Donte DiVicenzo, Aaron Holiday, and Brandon Clarke on it over the past two drafts.  

[RedDawg#8]

Nah Im not with that.

Trae Young is the best thing to happen to this franchise since Nique. He will bring js notoriety like none other.

We wont be title contenders next year. But this core will be apart of a title contending team some day. Im getting tired of the losing too, but Im looking forward to the end goal. 
 

We royally screwed the pooch this year by not build a viable roster around Trae, and my fear is it really sets us back long term. But make no mistake, we are not settling for mediocrity we are banking on potential. 
Bringing back that capped out vet squad of B- role players would have been settling and im glad we did not do it.

We avoided the rebuild for 3 eras of coaches/teams (Brown, Drew, Bud), I can live with the wait of this rebuild versus more of the good but not good enough teams. 

[AHF]

17 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Even if that team had dipped into the lottery, it would have been a one year stay in the lottery.  I'd be more than willing to take my chances with that team minus Dwight Howard with a young Donte DiVicenzo, Aaron Holiday, and Brandon Clarke on it over the past two drafts.  

I'm giving you a like for honesty.  

I want nothing to do with that capped out team.  Also don't have confidence that Budcox would have made the right calls on drafting. 

[KB21]

12 minutes ago, RedDawg#8 said:

Nah Im not with that.

Trae Young is the best thing to happen to this franchise since Nique. He will bring js notoriety like none other.

We wont be title contenders next year. But this core will be apart of a title contending team some day. Im getting tired of the losing too, but Im looking forward to the end goal. 
 

We royally screwed the pooch this year by not build a viable roster around Trae, and my fear is it really sets us back long term. But make no mistake, we are not settling for mediocrity we are banking on potential. 
Bringing back that capped out vet squad of B- role players would have been settling and im glad we did not do it.

We avoided the rebuild for 3 eras of coaches/teams (Brown, Drew, Bud), I can live with the wait of this rebuild versus more of the good but not good enough teams. 

And I'm not with the idea of intentionally making yourself bad to terrible based upon the idea that you have to add potential to the team.  There is too great of risk of the team getting on an endless lottery treadmill, and that has essentially already started for Atlanta.  They will be in the lottery again this year and likely next year because they are unwilling to do anything that may take time away from anyone in their "young core".  So, they will add another young player that can't help the team win, go skimpy on the veteran additions, and continue to dwell in this lottery cycle for at least another year.  

The trio of young players I mentioned have a greater combined WAR than Trae and the young core in Atlanta currently have.  

Let's look at it this way:

Donte DiVicenzo = 4.5 WAR

Aaron Holiday = 2.8 WAR

Brandon Clarke = 2.3 WAR

That's 9.6 WAR combined.

Trae Young has 7.2 WAR

Cam Reddish has -0.5 WAR

DeAndre Hunter has -0.8 WAR

Kevin Huerter has -0.4 WAR

That's 5.5 WAR

 

 

[KB21]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/you-dont-need-the-nba-draft-for-talent-just-ask-the-raptors/

[terrell]

On 2/26/2020 at 10:07 AM, PSSSHHHRRR87 said:

Not at all, but this season is lost and I see nothing positive from making a run for the playoffs and getting the 8th seed. At least a lottery pick has value. It's comparable to the Falcons winning out this past season... What did that actually accomplish beside saving Quinn and TD's job?

I agree to this partly, but there are plenty of examples in the modern NBA where a team made the playoffs for consecutive years and then won a title. GSW, Dallas, and Toronto are examples... I suspect Houston could be added to this list in 2020 and I'd throw in the Kobe-era Lakers going six years between championships. I'm not saying there won't be any changes made between now and five years from now. I'm sure there'll be some retooling and one or more of Huerter, Hunter, Reddish, Capela, or Collins will not be here.

I say Huerter/Collins will not be here..Just my opinion..