Coronavirus!

[bleachkit]

Covid-19 is very contagious but reports of 3 or 4% fatality rate are completely false. The actually fatality rate is well below 1%. Confirmed cases are either because youre well connected like NBA players, coaches, media members for example, or you had symptoms significant enough to seek medical care, which confirmed you have Covid-19. In all likelihood, there are millions of asymptomatic or very mild cases, like the NBA players and coaches, which will go unrecorded or unnoticed among the general population. So while Covid-19 should be taken seriously, those scary fatality rates that have been reported are not accurate.

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

[AHF]

59 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

Oh . . . and I'm non-essential.   They're calling it a 14 day layoff. 

Must call to get unemployment, and the company adds to the unemployment up to whatever I average in a 40 hour work week.  Unemployment normally takes 2 - 3 weeks to kick in, so I'll get paid next week . . but may not get anything the following week, depending on how quick the claim is processed.

Thank you Congress and POTUS, for the increase in Unemployment benefits, and the $1,200 bonus money.

The unemployment waiting period should be waived - the prior round of legislation made matching federal funds available for this to allow people to collect day 1.  Not sure how Georgia implemented.   

Today's legislation provided an additional $600/week in benefits on top of regular benefits:

Section 2104, which provides most individuals an emergency increase in traditional unemployment insurance (UI) benefits of $600 per week through July 31, 2020

Very glad that the holdouts threatening to block the latest legislation because they didn't want the unemployment insurance benefits included eventually got overruled.  

Sorry to hear that, though.  It is an uneasy state of things for many working men and women.  

[TheNorthCydeRises]

2 hours ago, Thomas said:

Don't believe a comment is needed on this stat.

	United States[e]	100,390	1,543	2,465

Remember, the number of cases/deaths pretty much double every 3 to 4 days, So expect 300,000+ infected with 4,500 deaths . . . by next Saturday.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

2 hours ago, bleachkit said:

Covid-19 is very contagious but reports of 3 or 4% fatality rate are completely false. The actually fatality rate is well below 1%. Confirmed cases are either because youre well connected like NBA players, coaches, media members for example, or you had symptoms significant enough to seek medical care, which confirmed you have Covid-19. In all likelihood, there are millions of asymptomatic or very mild cases, like the NBA players and coaches, which will go unrecorded or unnoticed among the general population. So while Covid-19 should be taken seriously, those scary fatality rates that have been reported are not accurate.

Source?

[bleachkit]

18 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

Source?

That's my opinion based on the evidence I provided. I would wager any amount of money the actual fatality rate is <1%. It stands to reason there are actually millions of people who have been exposed to Covid-19.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

 

1 hour ago, bleachkit said:

That's my opinion based on the evidence I provided. I would wager any amount of money the actual fatality rate is <1%. It stands to reason there are actually millions of people who have been exposed to Covid-19.

 

Evidence?  Where?  You're providing no concrete data at all to support this . . . just a hunch.  Frankly, the assumption you're making is very dangerous. 

This is why the President has to backtrack the things that he says 5 - 7 days ago about COVID-19, because this situation is rapidly deteriorating.  

Forget New York, Albany, GA is a perfect example of what this virus can do.  6.4% of the confirmed cases are dying.   This, despite around 90% of the people who get tested for COVID-19, don't have the virus . . even if they're showing symptoms.  The problem with this virus, is that early on, it looks just like the flu.  In most cases, it is the flu, a bad cold, or allergies.   This virus kicks it into overdrive in that 2nd week, by really attacking the lungs.

The other issue with this virus, is that if you have a severe case, it will leave you hospitalized much longer than the flu, which is why these hospitals are in panic mode.  The longer they stay in the hospital, the less beds they have for new patients.  Once they run out of beds, they have to either turn away the sick, or take in the really sick and disregard the somewhat sick.

So even if the fatality rate is 0.8%, that still makes it 8x more potent than the flu.  And the confirmed hospitalization rate of those diagnosed is running around 20%.  It's 27% in Albany.

Edited March 28, 2020 by TheNorthCydeRises

[AHF]

I'm really tired of people in positions of authority with zero data spitballing their own opinions with things like “And again, when you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that’s a pretty good job we’ve done.”  Just stop and let the medical professionals deal with this.

bleachkit is not a public figure in a position of authority.  But we need people who have national platforms to let the professionals deal with it.  

[TheNorthCydeRises]

1 hour ago, bleachkit said:

That's my opinion based on the evidence I provided. I would wager any amount of money the actual fatality rate is <1%. It stands to reason there are actually millions of people who have been exposed to Covid-19.

And once again, using the State Farm Arena example.

16,000 people

10% get the virus = 1,600 people

20% will be hospitalized = 320 people

0.8% of the infected will die = 128 people

 

This virus is very infectious, so for every person that has the virus, they infect 3 people.  This is how it explodes exponetially:

 

Week 1:  1600 x 3 = 4,800 infected x 0.8% deaths = 384 dead

Week 2:   4,800 x 3 = 14,400 infected = 1,152 dead

Week 3:   14,400 x 3 = 43,200 infected = 3,456 dead

Week 4:   42,300 x 3 = 129,600 infected = 10,368 dead

 

This is what New York City is looking at by the end of April.  And the Governor knows it.  That's going to be a complete nightmare if they don't get this somewhat under control.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

My state:  Tennessee

 

16,091 tested

14,888 negative - ( 92.5% )

1,203 positive - ( 7.5% )

 

Number of deaths = 6 ( 0.05% )

 

Despite the high number of infections, the death rate is extremely low right now.  Why?  Because in Tennessee, this disease is attacking people ages 21  - 40, who represent 42% of the cases.

My concern with Tennessee, is that we're only partially shutting down things and life ( at least in the daytime ) is pretty much normal outside of Nashville.  What has shot up the cases in Tennessee the past few days, are the number of people ages 51 - 70 who have been confirmed to have this.  That number is now at 417 ( 35% of cases ).  Memphis is the next area to watch, from a rise in cases and fatalities.

Edited March 28, 2020 by TheNorthCydeRises

[bleachkit]

1 hour ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

And once again, using the State Farm Arena example.

16,000 people

10% get the virus = 1,600 people

20% will be hospitalized = 320 people

0.8% of the infected will die = 128 people

 

This virus is very infectious, so for every person that has the virus, they infect 3 people.  This is how it explodes exponetially:

 

Week 1:  1600 x 3 = 4,800 infected x 0.8% deaths = 384 dead

Week 2:   4,800 x 3 = 14,400 infected = 1,152 dead

Week 3:   14,400 x 3 = 43,200 infected = 3,456 dead

Week 4:   42,300 x 3 = 129,600 infected = 10,368 dead

 

This is what New York City is looking at by the end of April.  And the Governor knows it.  That's going to be a complete nightmare if they don't get this somewhat under control.

 

47 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

My state:  Tennessee

 

16,091 tested

14,888 negative - ( 92.5% )

1,203 positive - ( 7.5% )

 

Number of deaths = 6 ( 0.05% )

 

Despite the high number of infections, the death rate is extremely low right now.  Why?  Because in Tennessee, this disease is attacking people ages 21  - 40, who represent 42% of the cases.

My concern with Tennessee, is that we're only partially shutting down things and life ( at least in the daytime ) is pretty much normal outside of Nashville.  What has shot up the cases in Tennessee the past few days, are the number of people ages 51 - 70 who have been confirmed to have this.  That number is now at 417 ( 35% of cases ).  Memphis is the next area to watch, from a rise in cases and fatalities.

Nothing you have posted is refuting my claim. I said the fatality rate is less than 1%. Taking the number of confirmed cases and dividing it by the number of deaths would give you the highest rate possible, as nearly all deaths will be reported, but countless asymptomatic cases are not counted.  How is that even debatable? So let's do the math here. The number of confirmed cases by the latest number is 104,205. The number is deaths is 1,702. Rate=1.63%. So without including asymptomatic cases our rate is only 1.63% Do you really think only a 100,000 or so people in the US have Covid-19? 100,000 people is only .03% of the US. That is an extremely small number. Viruses spread incredibly quickly, H1N1 infected 60,000,000 in the US in 2009. Do you really think it's plausible that a virus that has only infected 3 hundredths of 1% of people in the US would have somehow also have infected Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert, Kevin Durant, Doris Burke, Sean Payton, Andy Cohen, Rand Paul, Idris Elba, Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart and Rep. Ben McAdams?  It stands to reason that if all 350,000,000 Americans were tested for Covid-19, that millions would test positive. If you don't understand that basic logic, I don't know what to tell you. 

[AHF]

Unfortunately the death toll is also rising dramatically but trails the infections. Almost 1000 dead in Italy today alone.

[bleachkit]

32 minutes ago, AHF said:

Unfortunately the death toll is also rising dramatically but trails the infections. Almost 1000 dead in Italy today alone.

Italy has a large elderly population, many of whom were long time smokers. That might be one factor why it's been so deadly there. Germany has had very few Covid-19 deaths. The disparities are curious.

[AHF]

I’ll trust the pandemic professionals over amateur spitballing until everything is known.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

6 hours ago, bleachkit said:

 

Nothing you have posted is refuting my claim. I said the fatality rate is less than 1%. Taking the number of confirmed cases and dividing it by the number of deaths would give you the highest rate possible, as nearly all deaths will be reported, but countless asymptomatic cases are not counted.  How is that even debatable? So let's do the math here. The number of confirmed cases by the latest number is 104,205. The number is deaths is 1,702. Rate=1.63%. So without including asymptomatic cases our rate is only 1.63% Do you really think only a 100,000 or so people in the US have Covid-19? 100,000 people is only .03% of the US. That is an extremely small number. Viruses spread incredibly quickly, H1N1 infected 60,000,000 in the US in 2009. Do you really think it's plausible that a virus that has only infected 3 hundredths of 1% of people in the US would have somehow also have infected Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert, Kevin Durant, Doris Burke, Sean Payton, Andy Cohen, Rand Paul, Idris Elba, Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart and Rep. Ben McAdams?  It stands to reason that if all 350,000,000 Americans were tested for Covid-19, that millions would test positive. If you don't understand that basic logic, I don't know what to tell you. 

What makes you believe that all COVID-19 deaths are being reported?  What about people who doctors think they're dying from some other condition, but are really dying from COVID-19? What about those who die at home?  

On March 5th, the US had 200 confirmed cases and 12 deaths. Most of those coming from that nursing home in Washington. 

22 days later, once testing across the board has ramped up, we have over 104,000 cases and over 1,700 deaths ... with a whopping 401 deaths just occurring yesterday alone.  That's 23% of all deaths ... In one day.

Once the healthcare system gets overrun, deaths from non COVID-19 related illnesses will also rise, because they can't get treatment.  

The people in charge on every level of government has to see and prepare for this.  

[Thomas]

The 1% number whether accurate or not maybe doesn't strike fear in some folks hearts but just the same right now as of this morning the States have over 1700 fatalities. They are not all over 100 years old either. Add to that there really is a wider target range (youth wise) included here as opposed to Eurasia. The reason is a mystery at the moment. Personally am extremely worried about many as well as my own well being.

	United States[e]	104,671	1,716	2,387

[bleachkit]

2 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

What makes you believe that all COVID-19 deaths are being reported?  What about people who doctors think they're dying from some other condition, but are really dying from COVID-19? What about those who die at home?  

On March 5th, the US had 200 confirmed cases and 12 deaths. Most of those coming from that nursing home in Washington. 

22 days later, once testing across the board has ramped up, we have over 104,000 cases and over 1,700 deaths ... with a whopping 401 deaths just occurring yesterday alone.  That's 23% of all deaths ... In one day.

Once the healthcare system gets overrun, deaths from non COVID-19 related illnesses will also rise, because they can't get treatment.  

The people in charge on every level of government has to see and prepare for this.  

Some deaths might fall through the cracks, but for the most part those that are gravely ill with Covid-19 and ultimately die will be accounted for, whereas the millions of asymptomatic Covid-19 infections will not be. Long story short, the actual fatality is under 1%. Even Dr. Fauci has acknowledged the actual rate is likely less than 1%. An Oxford study suggested it might be as low as .1% when all is said and done. I'm not saying it's not serious, I'm not saying it's not deadly. But those are that saying the fatality rate is 3 to 5% are way off base. 

[Thomas]

So Gallinari is really a good guy with a good idea. He is funding test kits and medical equipment for the OKC health department. I am officially a fan of his now. Need many more positive stories like this one these days

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/28964564/thunder-danilo-gallinari-helping-fund-covid-19-test-kits-protective-equipment

[bleachkit]

27 minutes ago, Thomas said:

The 1% number whether accurate or not maybe doesn't strike fear in some folks hearts but just the same right now as of this morning the States have over 1700 fatalities. They are not all over 100 years old either. Add to that there really is a wider target range ( youth wise) included here as opposed to Eurasia. The reason is a mystery at the moment. Personally am extremely worried about many as well as my own well being.

	United States[e]	104,671	1,716	2,387

Age is a huge factor in fatalities. Younger and middle aged adults people are getting sick and requiring hospitalizations, but as far deaths, the elderly or older with chronic ailment (COPD, heart disease, etc) still represent the lions share of the deaths.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm#F1_down

One thing to be thankful for is Covid-19 has not been a serious threat to children for the most part. Of course there will be rare exceptions, but as far children dying, very, very few children have become gravely ill. 

[bleachkit]

8 minutes ago, Thomas said:

So Gallinari is really a good guy with a good idea. He is funding test kits and medical equipment for the OKC health department. I am officially a fan of his now. Need many more positive stories like this one these days

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/28964564/thunder-danilo-gallinari-helping-fund-covid-19-test-kits-protective-equipment

Abbott laboratories now has a 5 to 15 minute test that uses an accurate molecular testing method, as opposed to less reliable antibody testing.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-27/abbott-launches-5-minute-covid-19-test-for-use-almost-anywhere