Trae is playing horrible basketball late in games, and it's killing us.

[Diesel]

7 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Who is going to move in iso ball when you as an offensive player knows what coming which is a forced Trae shot. Plus if you move out of your spot, he might just throw it to that spot while under duress assuming you were suppose to be there.

No.. .not random movement.  Movement by design.  I guess that would take it from being iso but that iso game doesn't help us if we don't get the situation we want from it.  Trae waving off a screen only works if he can get passed the guy guarding him.   That's usually not the case.

[JayBirdHawk]

44 minutes ago, Diesel said:

 I don't know if Trae wanted Herro on the switch... 

Switch you say....it's a Nate thing (same in Portland or Indy) to get a mismatch.  Instead of this I'd like to see him.call a REAL offensive set with ball and player movement.

 

 

[Peoriabird]

50 minutes ago, Diesel said:

No.. .not random movement.  Movement by design.  I guess that would take it from being iso but that iso game doesn't help us if we don't get the situation we want from it.  Trae waving off a screen only works if he can get passed the guy guarding him.   That's usually not the case.

I agree...Nate has been disappointing to say the least. He sets his players up to fail and complains about the failure in the post game interview. Sounds familiar doesn't it?

[AHF]

On 1/15/2022 at 5:00 PM, niremetal said:

I wasn't saying the ball shouldn't be in Trae's hands in the clutch. My whole point is that he's NOT being a playmaker. Instead, he's playing Hero Ball, where everyone on the opposing team and their uncle knows that Trae is going to be looking only for his own shot, and is not going to make any effort to look for his teammates (as demonstrated by his miniscule assist rate) unless/until he's been trapped (as demonstrated by his astronomical turnover rate).

Yeah, let's get him the ball. But he shouldn't be chucking 30-footers with 18 seconds on the clock or waving off multiple screens because he wants to be a hero. 

His inefficiency in the clutch is not surprising as that is the usual case.  Kobe shot like 30-something% in the clutch, etc.  The degree of dropoff suggests that (a) teams are scheming to put him in very difficult situations, (b) he is making poor choices, he doesn't have viable options, or both and (c.) our offensive approach to this period is hurting us because we aren't adapting and the schemes to shut down Trae are quite successful in these situations.  

The best way to change this is to change the offensive scheme in these moments.  Trae can certainly improve himself but the numbers are overwhelming enough that I'd venture to say that what he can do to improve won't get us to where we want to be.

[Atlantaholic]

4 hours ago, AHF said:

His inefficiency in the clutch is not surprising as that is the usual case.  Kobe shot like 30-something% in the clutch, etc.  The degree of dropoff suggests that (a) teams are scheming to put him in very difficult situations, (b) he is making poor choices, he doesn't have viable options, or both and (c.) our offensive approach to this period is hurting us because we aren't adapting and the schemes to shut down Trae are quite successful in these situations.  

The best way to change this is to change the offensive scheme in these moments.  Trae can certainly improve himself but the numbers are overwhelming enough that I'd venture to say that what he can do to improve won't get us to where we want to be.

Definitely, this has to do with gameplan as much as it has to do with Trae. Trae is not "un" clutch, he had so many clutch moments in the playoffs last year I really can't rememeber them all. I think this year we are just not being smart late in games and I mean from a coaching tactics point of view. Teams know what we want to do and we aren't countering. Not to say Trae isn't at fault at all, I think with the way the season has gone he has also been "tighter" than in the past, dealing with the preassure of the woefully under delivered expectations and the current losing streaks you know has him pressing. But tonight was a return to form. Trae took over, Hawks won. Hopefully this is turning the corner. 

[niremetal]

On 1/15/2022 at 12:55 AM, niremetal said:

I decided to dig into this after seeing a few people say that Trae's 30+ jumper late in last night's game was not a bad shot because he makes it at a good percentage overall. And that's true in general. He came into last night shooting 40.8% on shots from 30+ feet. But I wanted to see if that was true in the 4th Quarter and, in particular, in clutch situations, because my "eye test" is that Trae has increasingly played an inefficient form of Hero Ball late in games this year. Sadly, I was right...like depressingly right.

If you look just at the 4th quarter, Trae came into last night shooting a miserable 27.7% (5-of-18) from 30+ feet. By comparison, he shoots 44.7% on those shots in the first half, and 46.6% in the third quarter.

I was curious to see if that got any better (or worse) in close/late situations, but wasn't able to find detailed shooting splits for clutch time. But...I was able to see his 3P% overall in clutch time versus the rest of the game. The sample size for clutch is small, but here are Trae's 3P% splits this season:

• 1st Quarter: 39.0% (32-of-82)
• 2nd Quarter: 40.0% (26-of-65)
• 3rd Quarter: 40.0% (26-of-65...not a typo, it's actually exactly the same as 2Q)
• 4th Quarter: 25.9% (15-of-58)
• Clutch (<5min / <= 5pts): 11.1% (1-of-9)

Okay, yeah, but 3-pointers are just one facet of the game, right? Unfortunately, the clutch rot seems to affect other aspects of Trae's offensive game too. You can see the overall and by-quarter stats here, and the clutch stats here.

• Overall, Trae shoots an even 50.0% (249-of-498) on 2-pointers. In the 4th quarter, that essentially holds steady at 50.4% (54-of-107). But in clutch situations, it drops to 44.0% (11-of-25).
• Overall, Trae averages 9.8 assists and 4.3 turnovers per 36 minutes. But in the 4th quarter, he averages just 6.5 assists and commits 4.7 turnovers per 36 minutes. And in the clutch, he averages 1.7 assists and 7.6 turnovers per 36 minutes (!!!!!!!!)

That last stat just blew me away. Among players who have played at least 30 clutch minutes this year, Trae is #102 in assists per 36 minutes, but #2 in turnovers per 36 minutes (Giannis is #1 in TO/36 in the clutch, but with 6.2 assists). This from the guy who is #2 in assists per 36 minutes overall.

So in clutch time, Trae is both shooting and passing not just poorly, but horribly. And that kills us, because Trae also has the league's highest usage rate in the clutch.

It's safe to say we can't win games if Trae keeps playing hero ball late like this. Especially if Trae's defense remains as awful as it's been.

---------------------------

Look, I'm not seriously not a hater when it comes to Trae. He's my avatar. I have his jersey, his kicks (black/white SoSoDef edition), two name/number tees, and got my daughter a jersey and t-shirt as well. The only other current Hawk whose jersey I have is Cam's. Oh...wait...

Seriously, I want Trae to succeed more than anything. But I think our playoff run last year got into his head, and he's bought into his own hype as a ice-cold, borderline-invincible clutch player. As a result, he's trying to do too much late in games. Teams see it coming, and defend accordingly, but Trae forces it, resulting in low-percentage shots and very little of the playmaking that makes him so special. I can't find stats on play types, but it looks like he goes ISO and goes away from the PnR late in game, which I'm guessing is a major reason he falls off so much.

And it's killing us. Add that to the fact that he seems to be giving less and less effort defensively, and I'm getting worried about him being the championship-caliber centerpiece I thought he was.

Hopefully Nate--or someone else in the locker room--has the clout and testicular fortitude to tell him to stop playing a totally different style of ball late in the game.

Update on this.

Since I posted this, Trae has been...still pretty bad in the 4th quarter (though less-bad than he was before, esp in creating for teammates).

2P%

All 4th Quarter

Before 1/15: 50.4%

Since 1/15: 45.2%

Total for season in 4th: 50.0% (vs 49.7% overall)

Clutch

Before Jan 15: 44.0%

Since Jan 15: 40.0%

Total for season in clutch: 42.8% (vs 49.7% overall)

3P%

All 4th Quarter

Before 1/15: 25.9%

Since 1/15: 33.3%

Total for season in 4th: 29.2% (vs 37.9% overall)

Clutch

Before Jan 15: 11.1%

Since Jan 15: 28.6%

Total for season in clutch: 18.8% (vs 37.9% overall)

Ast/TO

All 4th Quarter

Before 1/15: 6.5 ast per 36 min | 4.7 TO per 36 min

Since 1/15: 6.4 | 3.5

Total for season in 4th: 6.5 | 4.1 (vs 9.7 | 4.3 overall)

Clutch

Before Jan 15: 1.7 ast per 36 min | 7.6 TO per 36 min

Since Jan 15: 6.0 | 2.3

Total for season in clutch: 3.9 | 5.0 (vs 9.7 | 4.3 overall)

 

I was surprised by the low TOs since then, but bear in mind that over the past ~15 games, the number of minutes in clutch situations is so small that the per 36 min stats are highly sensitive to individual assists and turnovers. For example, the play where Trae lost the handle with 3 seconds on the shot clock and had to give it to Bogi for a contested desperation 3 went down as a missed shot for Bogi, although it was effectively a TO by Trae. If that had been a TO, Trae's per 36 min TO rate would have doubled to 4.6 (since he only had 1 other TO and just 3 asts in the clutch during that stretch).

Bad shots and not looking for his teammates down the stretch continues to be the norm. He's maybe converting slightly better lately, but it's still game-killingly bad.