Trae is playing horrible basketball late in games, and it's killing us.

[niremetal]

I decided to dig into this after seeing a few people say that Trae's 30+ jumper late in last night's game was not a bad shot because he makes it at a good percentage overall. And that's true in general. He came into last night shooting 40.8% on shots from 30+ feet. But I wanted to see if that was true in the 4th Quarter and, in particular, in clutch situations, because my "eye test" is that Trae has increasingly played an inefficient form of Hero Ball late in games this year. Sadly, I was right...like depressingly right.

If you look just at the 4th quarter, Trae came into last night shooting a miserable 27.7% (5-of-18) from 30+ feet. By comparison, he shoots 44.7% on those shots in the first half, and 46.6% in the third quarter.

I was curious to see if that got any better (or worse) in close/late situations, but wasn't able to find detailed shooting splits for clutch time. But...I was able to see his 3P% overall in clutch time versus the rest of the game. The sample size for clutch is small, but here are Trae's 3P% splits this season:

• 1st Quarter: 39.0% (32-of-82)
• 2nd Quarter: 40.0% (26-of-65)
• 3rd Quarter: 40.0% (26-of-65...not a typo, it's actually exactly the same as 2Q)
• 4th Quarter: 25.9% (15-of-58)
• Clutch (<5min / <= 5pts): 11.1% (1-of-9)

Okay, yeah, but 3-pointers are just one facet of the game, right? Unfortunately, the clutch rot seems to affect other aspects of Trae's offensive game too. You can see the overall and by-quarter stats here, and the clutch stats here.

• Overall, Trae shoots an even 50.0% (249-of-498) on 2-pointers. In the 4th quarter, that essentially holds steady at 50.4% (54-of-107). But in clutch situations, it drops to 44.0% (11-of-25).
• Overall, Trae averages 9.8 assists and 4.3 turnovers per 36 minutes. But in the 4th quarter, he averages just 6.5 assists and commits 4.7 turnovers per 36 minutes. And in the clutch, he averages 1.7 assists and 7.6 turnovers per 36 minutes (!!!!!!!!)

That last stat just blew me away. Among players who have played at least 30 clutch minutes this year, Trae is #102 in assists per 36 minutes, but #2 in turnovers per 36 minutes (Giannis is #1 in TO/36 in the clutch, but with 6.2 assists). This from the guy who is #2 in assists per 36 minutes overall.

So in clutch time, Trae is both shooting and passing not just poorly, but horribly. And that kills us, because Trae also has the league's highest usage rate in the clutch.

It's safe to say we can't win games if Trae keeps playing hero ball late like this. Especially if Trae's defense remains as awful as it's been.

---------------------------

Look, I'm not seriously not a hater when it comes to Trae. He's my avatar. I have his jersey, his kicks (black/white SoSoDef edition), two name/number tees, and got my daughter a jersey and t-shirt as well. The only other current Hawk whose jersey I have is Cam's. Oh...wait...

Seriously, I want Trae to succeed more than anything. But I think our playoff run last year got into his head, and he's bought into his own hype as a ice-cold, borderline-invincible clutch player. As a result, he's trying to do too much late in games. Teams see it coming, and defend accordingly, but Trae forces it, resulting in low-percentage shots and very little of the playmaking that makes him so special. I can't find stats on play types, but it looks like he goes ISO and goes away from the PnR late in game, which I'm guessing is a major reason he falls off so much.

And it's killing us. Add that to the fact that he seems to be giving less and less effort defensively, and I'm getting worried about him being the championship-caliber centerpiece I thought he was.

Hopefully Nate--or someone else in the locker room--has the clout and testicular fortitude to tell him to stop playing a totally different style of ball late in the game.

Edited January 15, 2022 by niremetal

[Diesel]

I'm going to bypass all the stats... It hurts my head..

 

And i will say this..

In the clutch situations, Trae is being doubled and trapped all the way up the court.  He doesn't get the bail out foul called for him anymore.  And he has struggled.  I don't know how hard Trae gets down on himself but I think that he does have something that's happening to him... because after being hounded by PJ Tucker and Butler most of the game, in his clutch on yesterday, he bounces the ball off his foot. 

Hear me right.. I don't mind him going ISO in the clutch.  That has worked for us in the past.. but I would hope that we're practicing some set plays from the ISO set.  There should still be some movement and some pick sets available.   Like I said previously, Trae may be in a little bit of a funk right now... but I think he's the kind of guy that is practicing to fix it. 

 

As far as his mentality.... I remember times when Kobe did a lot of the same things.   Hero ball.  I would never try to take that confidence away from him or blame he for that confidence.   Howvever, his coach still has to hold him accountable.   And his coach can't just stand back and not try to find ways to set him up for victory through play calling. 

[NBASupes]

People don't want to hear it on here but this is basically what Trae is this year:

Trae in the 1st to 3rd quarters is a combo of

 

 

 

 

4th quarter Trae

 

 

 

And plays defense in the regular season of all quarters like an mini verison of this

 

[niremetal]

The Westbrook comparison is on-point...partly because just about the only thing Trae does BETTER in the fourth quarter is rebound.

Although I don't think that even Russ has had a stretch where he averaged nearly 5x as many turnovers as assists in the clutch...

Edited January 15, 2022 by niremetal

[BrazilianHawk]

So it was a lot of time not posting in HS because I don't really enjoy posting negative thoughts, but here I am again. 

 

Last night's game was especially bad because we had it in the middle of the 4th quarter, but then A LOT of things happened, but not just to Trae. Let's be honest, he had a nice game until that BS logo shoot, and then the boncing off his foot. But a lot of people here just forgets there are many other culprits for last night loss.

- 3ogi couldn't hit anything. If he makes some of his shots, it was a win;

- Huerter had that brain fart inbound play; 

- OO was robbed twice by the refs, obviously not his fault.

- Nate doesn't look like he knows what to do with his challenge. He should have used it in that obvious bad call in the 3rd, the putback by OO that was ruled an over-the-back loose ball foul. That was infuriating. 

 

EVERY POINT COUNTS, not just the 4th quarter ones. Did he even use his challenge last night? I'm not sure, but if he didn't (or if it wasn't good) Nate just lost us the game right there.

 

So yes, Trae has been stinking it up, sure, but he's definitely not the only reason we are having terrible nights.

[shakes]

We lost this game for the same reason we lose most games, horrific no effort defense by Bogi, Huerter and Gallo.   If even one of those players puts forth an honest pro’s effort we win this game comfortably.

[JayBirdHawk]

Enough blame to go around for everyone including coaching:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Hawkmoor]

5 hours ago, niremetal said:

I decided to dig into this after seeing a few people say that Trae's 30+ jumper late in last night's game was not a bad shot because he makes it at a good percentage overall. And that's true in general. He came into last night shooting 40.8% on shots from 30+ feet. But I wanted to see if that was true in the 4th Quarter and, in particular, in clutch situations, because my "eye test" is that Trae has increasingly played an inefficient form of Hero Ball late in games this year. Sadly, I was right...like depressingly right.

If you look just at the 4th quarter, Trae came into last night shooting a miserable 27.7% (5-of-18) from 30+ feet. By comparison, he shoots 44.7% on those shots in the first half, and 46.6% in the third quarter.

I was curious to see if that got any better (or worse) in close/late situations, but wasn't able to find detailed shooting splits for clutch time. But...I was able to see his 3P% overall in clutch time versus the rest of the game. The sample size for clutch is small, but here are Trae's 3P% splits this season:

• 1st Quarter: 39.0% (32-of-82)
• 2nd Quarter: 40.0% (26-of-65)
• 3rd Quarter: 40.0% (26-of-65...not a typo, it's actually exactly the same as 2Q)
• 4th Quarter: 25.9% (15-of-58)
• Clutch (<5min / <= 5pts): 11.1% (1-of-9)

Okay, yeah, but 3-pointers are just one facet of the game, right? Unfortunately, the clutch rot seems to affect other aspects of Trae's offensive game too. You can see the overall and by-quarter stats here, and the clutch stats here.

• Overall, Trae shoots an even 50.0% (249-of-498) on 2-pointers. In the 4th quarter, that essentially holds steady at 50.4% (54-of-107). But in clutch situations, it drops to 44.0% (11-of-25).
• Overall, Trae averages 9.8 assists and 4.3 turnovers per 36 minutes. But in the 4th quarter, he averages just 6.5 assists and commits 4.7 turnovers per 36 minutes. And in the clutch, he averages 1.7 assists and 7.6 turnovers per 36 minutes (!!!!!!!!)

That last stat just blew me away. Among players who have played at least 30 clutch minutes this year, Trae is #102 in assists per 36 minutes, but #2 in turnovers per 36 minutes (Giannis is #1 in TO/36 in the clutch, but with 6.2 assists). This from the guy who is #2 in assists per 36 minutes overall.

So in clutch time, Trae is both shooting and passing not just poorly, but horribly. And that kills us, because Trae also has the league's highest usage rate in the clutch.

It's safe to say we can't win games if Trae keeps playing hero ball late like this. Especially if Trae's defense remains as awful as it's been.

---------------------------

Look, I'm not seriously not a hater when it comes to Trae. He's my avatar. I have his jersey, his kicks (black/white SoSoDef edition), two name/number tees, and got my daughter a jersey and t-shirt as well. The only other current Hawk whose jersey I have is Cam's. Oh...wait...

Seriously, I want Trae to succeed more than anything. But I think our playoff run last year got into his head, and he's bought into his own hype as a ice-cold, borderline-invincible clutch player. As a result, he's trying to do too much late in games. Teams see it coming, and defend accordingly, but Trae forces it, resulting in low-percentage shots and very little of the playmaking that makes him so special. I can't find stats on play types, but it looks like he goes ISO and goes away from the PnR late in game, which I'm guessing is a major reason he falls off so much.

And it's killing us. Add that to the fact that he seems to be giving less and less effort defensively, and I'm getting worried about him being the championship-caliber centerpiece I thought he was.

Hopefully Nate--or someone else in the locker room--has the clout and testicular fortitude to tell him to stop playing a totally different style of ball late in the game.

He did it again last night, obviously.  Nate lets him isolate to close late and he then dribbles into the entire defense and commits a offensive foul, while four other Hawks stand around looking stupid.  There was another play where Hunter hit a open 3 pointer.  Next trip down the floor,  Young has the ball out on the wing, Hunter is open for another 3 point shot, Trae takes a CONTESTED 3 pointer.   The ref bailed Trae out but that ball was suppose to go over to a wide open Hunter who just hit a 3.  How can his teammates get a rhythm with this mess.  I can't stand Trae as a basketball player.  Its not how you play the game and your point guard of all people can't be a hero ball guy.

Edited January 15, 2022 by Hawkmoor

[Hawkmoor]

5 hours ago, niremetal said:

I decided to dig into this after seeing a few people say that Trae's 30+ jumper late in last night's game was not a bad shot because he makes it at a good percentage overall. And that's true in general. He came into last night shooting 40.8% on shots from 30+ feet. But I wanted to see if that was true in the 4th Quarter and, in particular, in clutch situations, because my "eye test" is that Trae has increasingly played an inefficient form of Hero Ball late in games this year. Sadly, I was right...like depressingly right.

If you look just at the 4th quarter, Trae came into last night shooting a miserable 27.7% (5-of-18) from 30+ feet. By comparison, he shoots 44.7% on those shots in the first half, and 46.6% in the third quarter.

I was curious to see if that got any better (or worse) in close/late situations, but wasn't able to find detailed shooting splits for clutch time. But...I was able to see his 3P% overall in clutch time versus the rest of the game. The sample size for clutch is small, but here are Trae's 3P% splits this season:

• 1st Quarter: 39.0% (32-of-82)
• 2nd Quarter: 40.0% (26-of-65)
• 3rd Quarter: 40.0% (26-of-65...not a typo, it's actually exactly the same as 2Q)
• 4th Quarter: 25.9% (15-of-58)
• Clutch (<5min / <= 5pts): 11.1% (1-of-9)

Okay, yeah, but 3-pointers are just one facet of the game, right? Unfortunately, the clutch rot seems to affect other aspects of Trae's offensive game too. You can see the overall and by-quarter stats here, and the clutch stats here.

• Overall, Trae shoots an even 50.0% (249-of-498) on 2-pointers. In the 4th quarter, that essentially holds steady at 50.4% (54-of-107). But in clutch situations, it drops to 44.0% (11-of-25).
• Overall, Trae averages 9.8 assists and 4.3 turnovers per 36 minutes. But in the 4th quarter, he averages just 6.5 assists and commits 4.7 turnovers per 36 minutes. And in the clutch, he averages 1.7 assists and 7.6 turnovers per 36 minutes (!!!!!!!!)

That last stat just blew me away. Among players who have played at least 30 clutch minutes this year, Trae is #102 in assists per 36 minutes, but #2 in turnovers per 36 minutes (Giannis is #1 in TO/36 in the clutch, but with 6.2 assists). This from the guy who is #2 in assists per 36 minutes overall.

So in clutch time, Trae is both shooting and passing not just poorly, but horribly. And that kills us, because Trae also has the league's highest usage rate in the clutch.

It's safe to say we can't win games if Trae keeps playing hero ball late like this. Especially if Trae's defense remains as awful as it's been.

---------------------------

Look, I'm not seriously not a hater when it comes to Trae. He's my avatar. I have his jersey, his kicks (black/white SoSoDef edition), two name/number tees, and got my daughter a jersey and t-shirt as well. The only other current Hawk whose jersey I have is Cam's. Oh...wait...

Seriously, I want Trae to succeed more than anything. But I think our playoff run last year got into his head, and he's bought into his own hype as a ice-cold, borderline-invincible clutch player. As a result, he's trying to do too much late in games. Teams see it coming, and defend accordingly, but Trae forces it, resulting in low-percentage shots and very little of the playmaking that makes him so special. I can't find stats on play types, but it looks like he goes ISO and goes away from the PnR late in game, which I'm guessing is a major reason he falls off so much.

And it's killing us. Add that to the fact that he seems to be giving less and less effort defensively, and I'm getting worried about him being the championship-caliber centerpiece I thought he was.

Hopefully Nate--or someone else in the locker room--has the clout and testicular fortitude to tell him to stop playing a totally different style of ball late in the game.

Excellent post by the way.  The numbers don't lie about Trae.

[Bonkers]

More and More people are waking up to Trae's bullshit. Finally!!! Of course Trae defenders will say they are Trolling LOL

 

 

 

 

I Told y'all people would get sick of Trae's shit!!!

Edited January 15, 2022 by Bonkers

[Hawkmoor]

4 hours ago, Diesel said:

I'm going to bypass all the stats... It hurts my head..

 

Of course the numbers hurt your head.  You ignore the numbers and went straight to the excuses. Can't let facts get in the way.

[Gray Mule]

THE THING ABOUT HERO BALL:

1- He hits the winning shot.  Fans yell, "Look at him!"

2- He messes up and team loses the game.  Fans yell, "Look at him!"

Sometimes you're the windshield.  Sometimes you're the bug.

[Hawkmoor]

8 minutes ago, Bonkers said:

More and More people are waking up to Trae's bullshit. Finally!!! Of course Trae defenders will say they are Trolling LOL

 

 

 

 

I Told y'all people would get sick of Trae's shit!!!

Excellent post.  I thought I was the only one that noticed that Trae wasn't giving the ball to Deandre last night when he should have.  Everybody is aware of Trae's Hero Ball mess.  One poster even said Dre has a higher basketball I.Q. which I agree with.  Watch these Hawks players get traded and their games immediately improve.

[Hawkmoor]

5 minutes ago, Gray Mule said:

THE THING ABOUT HERO BALL:

1- He hits the winning shot.  Fans yell, "Look at him!"

2- He messes up and team loses the game.  Fans yell, "Look at him!"

Sometimes you're the windshield.  Sometimes you're the bug.

If you are the ONLY ONE TAKING the winning shots, eventually you gonna make one.

[Plainview1981]

6 hours ago, niremetal said:

I decided to dig into this after seeing a few people say that Trae's 30+ jumper late in last night's game was not a bad shot because he makes it at a good percentage overall. And that's true in general. He came into last night shooting 40.8% on shots from 30+ feet. But I wanted to see if that was true in the 4th Quarter and, in particular, in clutch situations, because my "eye test" is that Trae has increasingly played an inefficient form of Hero Ball late in games this year. Sadly, I was right...like depressingly right.

If you look just at the 4th quarter, Trae came into last night shooting a miserable 27.7% (5-of-18) from 30+ feet. By comparison, he shoots 44.7% on those shots in the first half, and 46.6% in the third quarter.

I was curious to see if that got any better (or worse) in close/late situations, but wasn't able to find detailed shooting splits for clutch time. But...I was able to see his 3P% overall in clutch time versus the rest of the game. The sample size for clutch is small, but here are Trae's 3P% splits this season:

• 1st Quarter: 39.0% (32-of-82)
• 2nd Quarter: 40.0% (26-of-65)
• 3rd Quarter: 40.0% (26-of-65...not a typo, it's actually exactly the same as 2Q)
• 4th Quarter: 25.9% (15-of-58)
• Clutch (<5min / <= 5pts): 11.1% (1-of-9)

Okay, yeah, but 3-pointers are just one facet of the game, right? Unfortunately, the clutch rot seems to affect other aspects of Trae's offensive game too. You can see the overall and by-quarter stats here, and the clutch stats here.

• Overall, Trae shoots an even 50.0% (249-of-498) on 2-pointers. In the 4th quarter, that essentially holds steady at 50.4% (54-of-107). But in clutch situations, it drops to 44.0% (11-of-25).
• Overall, Trae averages 9.8 assists and 4.3 turnovers per 36 minutes. But in the 4th quarter, he averages just 6.5 assists and commits 4.7 turnovers per 36 minutes. And in the clutch, he averages 1.7 assists and 7.6 turnovers per 36 minutes (!!!!!!!!)

That last stat just blew me away. Among players who have played at least 30 clutch minutes this year, Trae is #102 in assists per 36 minutes, but #2 in turnovers per 36 minutes (Giannis is #1 in TO/36 in the clutch, but with 6.2 assists). This from the guy who is #2 in assists per 36 minutes overall.

So in clutch time, Trae is both shooting and passing not just poorly, but horribly. And that kills us, because Trae also has the league's highest usage rate in the clutch.

It's safe to say we can't win games if Trae keeps playing hero ball late like this. Especially if Trae's defense remains as awful as it's been.

---------------------------

Look, I'm not seriously not a hater when it comes to Trae. He's my avatar. I have his jersey, his kicks (black/white SoSoDef edition), two name/number tees, and got my daughter a jersey and t-shirt as well. The only other current Hawk whose jersey I have is Cam's. Oh...wait...

Seriously, I want Trae to succeed more than anything. But I think our playoff run last year got into his head, and he's bought into his own hype as a ice-cold, borderline-invincible clutch player. As a result, he's trying to do too much late in games. Teams see it coming, and defend accordingly, but Trae forces it, resulting in low-percentage shots and very little of the playmaking that makes him so special. I can't find stats on play types, but it looks like he goes ISO and goes away from the PnR late in game, which I'm guessing is a major reason he falls off so much.

And it's killing us. Add that to the fact that he seems to be giving less and less effort defensively, and I'm getting worried about him being the championship-caliber centerpiece I thought he was.

Hopefully Nate--or someone else in the locker room--has the clout and testicular fortitude to tell him to stop playing a totally different style of ball late in the game.

Trae blew other teams away like hideo nomo when he first came into the league, but teams have figured out how to play him in the 4h period.

[MarylandHawk]

5 hours ago, Diesel said:

I'm going to bypass all the stats... It hurts my head..

 

And i will say this..

In the clutch situations, Trae is being doubled and trapped all the way up the court.  He doesn't get the bail out foul called for him anymore.  And he has struggled.  I don't know how hard Trae gets down on himself but I think that he does have something that's happening to him... because after being hounded by PJ Tucker and Butler most of the game, in his clutch on yesterday, he bounces the ball off his foot. 

Hear me right.. I don't mind him going ISO in the clutch.  That has worked for us in the past.. but I would hope that we're practicing some set plays from the ISO set.  There should still be some movement and some pick sets available.   Like I said previously, Trae may be in a little bit of a funk right now... but I think he's the kind of guy that is practicing to fix it. 

 

As far as his mentality.... I remember times when Kobe did a lot of the same things.   Hero ball.  I would never try to take that confidence away from him or blame he for that confidence.   Howvever, his coach still has to hold him accountable.   And his coach can't just stand back and not try to find ways to set him up for victory through play calling. 

Tyler Herro tip the ball. Miami’s scrappy defense should be credited for this not Trae’s handles. 

[Plainview1981]

As pissed as I was about Trae last night, in his defense... A big part of the problem is that he is the only playmaker the team has and every team in the league knows that and they act accordingly.

Plus Nate sucks as an offensive coach.

Edited January 15, 2022 by Plainview1981

[Diesel]

47 minutes ago, Hawkmoor said:

Of course the numbers hurt your head.  You ignore the numbers and went straight to the excuses. Can't let facts get in the way.

Obviouisly... you didn't read my post.. just the first line and assumed that I was a Trae apologist...  You missed me talking about holding Trae accountable and holding Nate accountable for not having set plays even from the ISO..

 

But then again.. It doesn't fit your agenda to actually read what I said??

[JayBirdHawk]

2 minutes ago, Plainview1981 said:

As pissed as I was about Trae last night, in his defense... A big part of the problem is that he is the only playmaker the team has and every team in the league knows that and they act accordingly.

Plus Nate sucks as an offensive coach.

Say it again. 

[Diesel]

6 minutes ago, MarylandHawk said:

Tyler Herro tip the ball. Miami’s scrappy defense should be credited for this not Trae’s handles. 

I think Miami was well coached against our end game because when we go ISO, we are very predictable.   I think having somebody who can be a second ball handler would be helpful.. I guess that was the hope for Bogi and Kev.. but that's not working because they only know how to get us into the PNR.  The issue with Delon is that when he's on the floor with Trae, he automatically defers.   The easiest fix is add more plays out of an Iso set... meaning if we're not getting the switch we want then go to something else instead of trying to force it.