Trae is playing horrible basketball late in games, and it's killing us.

[MarylandHawk]

6 hours ago, niremetal said:

I decided to dig into this after seeing a few people say that Trae's 30+ jumper late in last night's game was not a bad shot because he makes it at a good percentage overall. And that's true in general. He came into last night shooting 40.8% on shots from 30+ feet. But I wanted to see if that was true in the 4th Quarter and, in particular, in clutch situations, because my "eye test" is that Trae has increasingly played an inefficient form of Hero Ball late in games this year. Sadly, I was right...like depressingly right.

If you look just at the 4th quarter, Trae came into last night shooting a miserable 27.7% (5-of-18) from 30+ feet. By comparison, he shoots 44.7% on those shots in the first half, and 46.6% in the third quarter.

I was curious to see if that got any better (or worse) in close/late situations, but wasn't able to find detailed shooting splits for clutch time. But...I was able to see his 3P% overall in clutch time versus the rest of the game. The sample size for clutch is small, but here are Trae's 3P% splits this season:

• 1st Quarter: 39.0% (32-of-82)
• 2nd Quarter: 40.0% (26-of-65)
• 3rd Quarter: 40.0% (26-of-65...not a typo, it's actually exactly the same as 2Q)
• 4th Quarter: 25.9% (15-of-58)
• Clutch (<5min / <= 5pts): 11.1% (1-of-9)

Okay, yeah, but 3-pointers are just one facet of the game, right? Unfortunately, the clutch rot seems to affect other aspects of Trae's offensive game too. You can see the overall and by-quarter stats here, and the clutch stats here.

• Overall, Trae shoots an even 50.0% (249-of-498) on 2-pointers. In the 4th quarter, that essentially holds steady at 50.4% (54-of-107). But in clutch situations, it drops to 44.0% (11-of-25).
• Overall, Trae averages 9.8 assists and 4.3 turnovers per 36 minutes. But in the 4th quarter, he averages just 6.5 assists and commits 4.7 turnovers per 36 minutes. And in the clutch, he averages 1.7 assists and 7.6 turnovers per 36 minutes (!!!!!!!!)

That last stat just blew me away. Among players who have played at least 30 clutch minutes this year, Trae is #102 in assists per 36 minutes, but #2 in turnovers per 36 minutes (Giannis is #1 in TO/36 in the clutch, but with 6.2 assists). This from the guy who is #2 in assists per 36 minutes overall.

So in clutch time, Trae is both shooting and passing not just poorly, but horribly. And that kills us, because Trae also has the league's highest usage rate in the clutch.

It's safe to say we can't win games if Trae keeps playing hero ball late like this. Especially if Trae's defense remains as awful as it's been.

---------------------------

Look, I'm not seriously not a hater when it comes to Trae. He's my avatar. I have his jersey, his kicks (black/white SoSoDef edition), two name/number tees, and got my daughter a jersey and t-shirt as well. The only other current Hawk whose jersey I have is Cam's. Oh...wait...

Seriously, I want Trae to succeed more than anything. But I think our playoff run last year got into his head, and he's bought into his own hype as a ice-cold, borderline-invincible clutch player. As a result, he's trying to do too much late in games. Teams see it coming, and defend accordingly, but Trae forces it, resulting in low-percentage shots and very little of the playmaking that makes him so special. I can't find stats on play types, but it looks like he goes ISO and goes away from the PnR late in game, which I'm guessing is a major reason he falls off so much.

And it's killing us. Add that to the fact that he seems to be giving less and less effort defensively, and I'm getting worried about him being the championship-caliber centerpiece I thought he was.

Hopefully Nate--or someone else in the locker room--has the clout and testicular fortitude to tell him to stop playing a totally different style of ball late in the game.

Good post. I think we have to take two things into consideration though. 1.  We have been getting blown out before we even get into the fourth on a lot of these games and everyone including Trae is playing desperation ball. 2.  You hear Nique, Bob, and Vince say it all the time that Trae needs to set his teammates up in the first 3 quarters and then take over in the 4th. I can imagine Nate telling him the same thing.  But that formula isn’t quite working because the tram is inefficient especially defensively. 
The only real issue with this team is it’s overall effort level on offense and defense. Most teams we play are in playoff form because of the new play in format. We were caught with our pants down coming in to the season thinking we were better than everyone else. Then we had all the disruption with covid. Trae can and will adjust his game to win. He already has his money and fame all he wants to do is win. He is not going to bottle up his talent when everyone else is playing below theirs. 

[NBASupes]

13 minutes ago, Plainview1981 said:

As pissed as I was about Trae last night, in his defense... A big part of the problem is that he is the only playmaker the team has and every team in the league knows that and they act accordingly.

Plus Nate sucks as an offensive coach.

We don't have another player that the defense cares about with the rock. We been downloaded 

[JayBirdHawk]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

I'm reposting this ^^^.

So Nate's offense is to spend 18 seconds trying to get a favorable switch which a team like Miami did very well defending. 

What's the alternate play from Nate? If you try that for 10 seconds and it's not working there's gotta be something else. No?

 

 

[Diesel]

23 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I'm reposting this ^^^.

So Nate's offense is to spend 18 seconds trying to get a favorable switch which a team like Miami did very well defending. 

What's the alternate play from Nate? If you try that for 10 seconds and it's not working there's gotta be something else. No?

 

 

That's my point too.  It requires Trae humbling up and realizing that he's not going to get the switch and quickly moving to the next set play.  There has to be offense out of the Iso set. 

Don't get me wrong, our Iso set is very good if the conditions are right but Miami showed last night that the conditions are forceable.   When that happens... we need at least three set plays that we can move to that will make things change. 

[benhillboy]

https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?ContextMeasure=STL&EndPeriod=0&EndRange=28800&GameID=0022100636&PlayerID=200782&RangeType=0&Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&StartPeriod=0&StartRange=0&TeamID=1610612748&flag=1&sct=plot&section=game

 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

3 hours ago, Hawkmoor said:

I can't stand Trae as a basketball player.  Its not how you play the game and your point guard of all people can't be a hero ball guy.

 

Thank you for finally putting this in writing. 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

6 hours ago, niremetal said:

The Westbrook comparison is on-point...partly because just about the only thing Trae does BETTER in the fourth quarter is rebound.

Although I don't think that even Russ has had a stretch where he averaged nearly 5x as many turnovers as assists in the clutch...

I would love to see how many of those turnovers were a result of him aggressively driving to the basket and not getting a call.

It would take a little work, but I can probably archive his crunch time turnovers with video clips. 

Unless nba.com or some other site has already done this.

[Wretch]

2 hours ago, Plainview1981 said:

As pissed as I was about Trae last night, in his defense... A big part of the problem is that he is the only playmaker the team has and every team in the league knows that and they act accordingly.

Plus Nate sucks as an offensive coach.

Holy sheeeeeet....lol  Hots with the most valid point on this thread.  But yeah, this part.  I think this in addition to a couple of things is killing us.  It's the fact that Trae is too easy to target, defense, which...no explanation needed, and we are simply too young and too happy/nice of a team.  We need a 2nd alpha and we need some chippy/angry/no-nonsense older dudes in the locker room.  Not necessarily stars, but not scrubs.

 

[txsting]

9 hours ago, niremetal said:

I decided to dig into this after seeing a few people say that Trae's 30+ jumper late in last night's game was not a bad shot because he makes it at a good percentage overall. And that's true in general. He came into last night shooting 40.8% on shots from 30+ feet. But I wanted to see if that was true in the 4th Quarter and, in particular, in clutch situations, because my "eye test" is that Trae has increasingly played an inefficient form of Hero Ball late in games this year. Sadly, I was right...like depressingly right.

If you look just at the 4th quarter, Trae came into last night shooting a miserable 27.7% (5-of-18) from 30+ feet. By comparison, he shoots 44.7% on those shots in the first half, and 46.6% in the third quarter.

I was curious to see if that got any better (or worse) in close/late situations, but wasn't able to find detailed shooting splits for clutch time. But...I was able to see his 3P% overall in clutch time versus the rest of the game. The sample size for clutch is small, but here are Trae's 3P% splits this season:

• 1st Quarter: 39.0% (32-of-82)
• 2nd Quarter: 40.0% (26-of-65)
• 3rd Quarter: 40.0% (26-of-65...not a typo, it's actually exactly the same as 2Q)
• 4th Quarter: 25.9% (15-of-58)
• Clutch (<5min / <= 5pts): 11.1% (1-of-9)

Okay, yeah, but 3-pointers are just one facet of the game, right? Unfortunately, the clutch rot seems to affect other aspects of Trae's offensive game too. You can see the overall and by-quarter stats here, and the clutch stats here.

• Overall, Trae shoots an even 50.0% (249-of-498) on 2-pointers. In the 4th quarter, that essentially holds steady at 50.4% (54-of-107). But in clutch situations, it drops to 44.0% (11-of-25).
• Overall, Trae averages 9.8 assists and 4.3 turnovers per 36 minutes. But in the 4th quarter, he averages just 6.5 assists and commits 4.7 turnovers per 36 minutes. And in the clutch, he averages 1.7 assists and 7.6 turnovers per 36 minutes (!!!!!!!!)

That last stat just blew me away. Among players who have played at least 30 clutch minutes this year, Trae is #102 in assists per 36 minutes, but #2 in turnovers per 36 minutes (Giannis is #1 in TO/36 in the clutch, but with 6.2 assists). This from the guy who is #2 in assists per 36 minutes overall.

So in clutch time, Trae is both shooting and passing not just poorly, but horribly. And that kills us, because Trae also has the league's highest usage rate in the clutch.

It's safe to say we can't win games if Trae keeps playing hero ball late like this. Especially if Trae's defense remains as awful as it's been.

---------------------------

Look, I'm not seriously not a hater when it comes to Trae. He's my avatar. I have his jersey, his kicks (black/white SoSoDef edition), two name/number tees, and got my daughter a jersey and t-shirt as well. The only other current Hawk whose jersey I have is Cam's. Oh...wait...

Seriously, I want Trae to succeed more than anything. But I think our playoff run last year got into his head, and he's bought into his own hype as a ice-cold, borderline-invincible clutch player. As a result, he's trying to do too much late in games. Teams see it coming, and defend accordingly, but Trae forces it, resulting in low-percentage shots and very little of the playmaking that makes him so special. I can't find stats on play types, but it looks like he goes ISO and goes away from the PnR late in game, which I'm guessing is a major reason he falls off so much.

And it's killing us. Add that to the fact that he seems to be giving less and less effort defensively, and I'm getting worried about him being the championship-caliber centerpiece I thought he was.

Hopefully Nate--or someone else in the locker room--has the clout and testicular fortitude to tell him to stop playing a totally different style of ball late in the game.

Amazing post, too much to unpack for now but I think you are on to something.  I mean last night he turns it over twice and throws up that bomb, and that's the game right there.

[Plainview1981]

40 minutes ago, Wretch said:

Holy sheeeeeet....lol  Hots with the most valid point on this thread.  But yeah, this part.  I think this in addition to a couple of things is killing us.  It's the fact that Trae is too easy to target, defense, which...no explanation needed, and we are simply too young and too happy/nice of a team.  We need a 2nd alpha and we need some chippy/angry/no-nonsense older dudes in the locker room.  Not necessarily stars, but not scrubs.

 

It's a combo of things: predictable offense', too much hero ball and limited creators.... The shooters on this team are not consistent either.

Shooting wise, the team is full of streaky shooters.

[Dynamo]

Hawks need to target some good veteran players.

[niremetal]

6 hours ago, Plainview1981 said:

As pissed as I was about Trae last night, in his defense... A big part of the problem is that he is the only playmaker the team has and every team in the league knows that and they act accordingly.

Plus Nate sucks as an offensive coach.

I wasn't saying the ball shouldn't be in Trae's hands in the clutch. My whole point is that he's NOT being a playmaker. Instead, he's playing Hero Ball, where everyone on the opposing team and their uncle knows that Trae is going to be looking only for his own shot, and is not going to make any effort to look for his teammates (as demonstrated by his miniscule assist rate) unless/until he's been trapped (as demonstrated by his astronomical turnover rate).

Yeah, let's get him the ball. But he shouldn't be chucking 30-footers with 18 seconds on the clock or waving off multiple screens because he wants to be a hero. 

[Diesel]

3 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

I would love to see how many of those turnovers were a result of him aggressively driving to the basket and not getting a call.

It would take a little work, but I can probably archive his crunch time turnovers with video clips. 

Unless nba.com or some other site has already done this.

That's a fair point.. because for a lot of the game, Butler and PJ were getting away with pushes before Trae got the ball.  The refs acted like it's Ok to be handsy off ball. 

BUT......

A lot of the no calls that Trae is seeing is a direct result of the Trae Young rules.   When he does have the ball and he goes for a shot.   I have seen a few cases when the defender didn't bite and wasn't called but I have seen cases where the defender did bite and wasn't called. 

For Trae, it's still a transition. 

[Diesel]

3 hours ago, Wretch said:

Holy sheeeeeet....lol  Hots with the most valid point on this thread.  But yeah, this part.  I think this in addition to a couple of things is killing us.  It's the fact that Trae is too easy to target, defense, which...no explanation needed, and we are simply too young and too happy/nice of a team.  We need a 2nd alpha and we need some chippy/angry/no-nonsense older dudes in the locker room.  Not necessarily stars, but not scrubs.

 

Patrick Beverley... come on Down!!

[TheNorthCydeRises]

9 minutes ago, niremetal said:

I wasn't saying the ball shouldn't be in Trae's hands in the clutch. My whole point is that he's NOT being a playmaker. Instead, he's playing Hero Ball, where everyone on the opposing team and their uncle knows that Trae is going to be looking only for his own shot, and is not going to make any effort to look for his teammates (as demonstrated by his miniscule assist rate) unless/until he's been trapped (as demonstrated by his astronomical turnover rate).

Yeah, let's get him the ball. But he shouldn't be chucking 30-footers with 18 seconds on the clock or waving off multiple screens because he wants to be a hero. 

 

Ya'll don't get why he takes those long shots.

It's not because he wants to be the hero, because he'll take that shot at any time. 

He takes it because of two reasons:

• He has it going from 3 point range, and has extreme confidence that he can make the shot at any time
• He's having trouble getting into the paint, so taking the bomb is the easiest shot he can take.

With the way Miami traps Trae, the need for that secondary ball handler is definitely needed in those situations.   And not just a secondary ball handler.  A guard who can actually handle the ball and score.  I believe this is why @Diesel said that he wanted Lou Williams in the game.  I scoffed at that notion last night, but maybe that's the short term remedy for the Hawks at the end of games.

Now granted, that's a NIGHTMARE on the defensive end. But it may help us on offense to have a legit veteran shot maker like Lou in the game in those final minutes as a "closer".

 

The other thing that goes on with this team, is the extreme lack of physicality that this team plays with.  My pet peeve with our bigs and even our guards, is that they do not hold their screens, or even put a body on people.  That's also why I was such a fan of Bruno Fernando, because he ALWAYS held his screen, and made it difficult for Trae's man to get around him.  He wasn't slipping the screen to look for a lob dunk.  He was holding the screen to free up Trae for shots.

On the play in which Trae turned the ball over when doubled by PJ Tucker and Tyler Herro, Huerter looked as if he wanted to set a screen on one of the guys.  But instead of putting a body on someone, he completely slips the screen and does nothing to deter the double.  That leaves Trae in the position to try to use his dribble just to free himself to make a pass, forget about looking for a shot.

On the other end though, Miami constantly put a body on our defenders and held their screens.  And you see more and more teams screening the hell out of us, because they know that we're not a physical team by nature.

 

 

[niremetal]

1 hour ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

Ya'll don't get why he takes those long shots.

It's not because he wants to be the hero, because he'll take that shot at any time. 

He takes it because of two reasons:

• He has it going from 3 point range, and has extreme confidence that he can make the shot at any time
• He's having trouble getting into the paint, so taking the bomb is the easiest shot he can take.

 

 

The level of Trae apologia on display here astounds me.

Again, Trae is shooting 25% in the 4th on 3s, 11% in crunch time. Last year, those numbers were 34% in the 4th and 29% in crunch time. Better, but still well below average. Whatever confidence he has on those shots, it clearly is completely and totally unwarranted late in the game. Blame tired legs or whatever, but those are not good shots for him in clutch situations.

Quote

On the play in which Trae turned the ball over when doubled by PJ Tucker and Tyler Herro, Huerter looked as if he wanted to set a screen on one of the guys.  But instead of putting a body on someone, he completely slips the screen and does nothing to deter the double.  That leaves Trae in the position to try to use his dribble just to free himself to make a pass, forget about looking for a shot.

No. You're seeing what you want to see. Blaming this on bad screens ignores that in the NBA, screeners don't usually set up right next to the ballhandler, because that constricts the ballhandler's movement and limits his options. Instead, screeners generally set up a pace or two away, and give the ballhandler the option of using or declining that screen. It's on the ballhandler just as much as the screener to make the screen effective by bringing his man into the screen.

This is what accepting a screen looks like--the screener sets up a couple feet away...

and you dribble toward and around to the screener, making a move that forces your man to run into it.

Now watch the video of the crucial turnover. Kevin started moving toward Trae here, when Trae is centered at the front of the red part of the Heat logo:

Trae sees the screen coming and where Kevin is setting up--which ended up being at a spot a bit closer than Dieng's screen in the clip above. But instead of dribbling toward/curving around the screen, Trae made two hesitation dribbles and kept moving laterally to his right, making no effort to force his man to where Kevin was setting up:

Trae saw the screen coming but made zero effort to bring his man toward it. That's at least as much, if not more, on Trae than it is on Kevin. And I've seen lots of late-game instances where Trae literally waved off screens as the screener was setting up this season too. Next time I see one, I'll post it here.

Trae has lots of opportunities to use his teammates late in the game. But he's clearly made the decision that he wants to be the one to take those shots, even though he's frankly not making good decisions or getting good looks when he does so.

Edited January 15, 2022 by niremetal

[MarylandHawk]

On 1/15/2022 at 6:48 PM, niremetal said:

The level of Trae apologia on display here astounds me.

Again, Trae is shooting 25% in the 4th on 3s, 11% in crunch time. Last year, those numbers were 34% in the 4th and 29% in crunch time. Better, but still well below average. Whatever confidence he has on those shots, it clearly is completely and totally unwarranted late in the game. Blame tired legs or whatever, but those are not good shots for him in clutch situations.

No. You're seeing what you want to see. Blaming this on bad screens ignores that in the NBA, screeners don't usually set up right next to the ballhandler, because that constricts the ballhandler's movement and limits his options. Instead, screeners generally set up a pace or two away, and give the ballhandler the option of using or declining that screen. It's on the ballhandler just as much as the screener to make the screen effective by bringing his man into the screen.

This is what accepting a screen looks like--the screener sets up a couple feet away...

and you dribble toward and around to the screener, making a move that forces your man to run into it.

Now watch the video of the crucial turnover. Kevin started moving toward Trae here, when Trae is centered at the front of the red part of the Heat logo:

Trae sees the screen coming and where Kevin is setting up--which ended up being at a spot a bit closer than Dieng's screen in the clip above. But instead of dribbling toward/curving around the screen, Trae made two hesitation dribbles and kept moving laterally to his right, making no effort to force his man to where Kevin was setting up:

Trae saw the screen coming but made zero effort to bring his man toward it. That's at least as much, if not more, on Trae than it is on Kevin. And I've seen lots of late-game instances where Trae literally waved off screens as the screener was setting up this season too. Next time I see one, I'll post it here.

Trae has lots of opportunities to use his teammates late in the game. But he's clearly made the decision that he wants to be the one to take those shots, even though he's frankly not making good decisions or getting good looks when he does so.

Your clip breakdown is great. However, the focus on Trae here is misplaced. The only reason we are in this situation is because of Bogi’s idiot dead ball foul that resulted in a technical free throw and his horrible effort at guarding Herro immediately after the free throw in which he made a three pointer.  4 points in 5 seconds to erase our lead late in that game.  Nobody here is satisfied with any of our players making mistakes including Trae but to go out of your way and blame the whole loss on him seems incredibly biased against him. Trae is a hero and sometimes he has to play hero ball. He has put this franchise on his back against all the haters and detractors and made us relevant and fun to watch. He also gives us a chance to win. I am riding with him to the wheels fall of. You can go back to your Horford days with no heroes. 

[Peoriabird]

All I can say is "wow". @niremetal

Goes out of his way to break down Trae's 4th quarter issues and it looks as though he put a lot of time and effort into only to be met with the same excuses? This is beyond wierd!

[Diesel]

On 1/15/2022 at 6:48 PM, niremetal said:

 

Trae saw the screen coming but made zero effort to bring his man toward it. That's at least as much, if not more, on Trae than it is on Kevin. And I've seen lots of late-game instances where Trae literally waved off screens as the screener was setting up this season too. Next time I see one, I'll post it here.

Trae has lots of opportunities to use his teammates late in the game. But he's clearly made the decision that he wants to be the one to take those shots, even though he's frankly not making good decisions or getting good looks when he does so.

I think there's a difference between a 1/5 or 1/4 screen vs. 1/2 screen.  It's clear that Bogi doesn't set good screens.  There's no roll or pop coming off of that screen, it leads to a switch.   I don't know if Trae wanted Herro on the switch...  Herro is far more athletic than PJ.  IMO, Trae should have been able to blow passed PJ.  However, PJ is not a bad defender and they would have funneled Trae into the teeth of the defense.

This is why I say that Nate needs to create more plays out of the Iso and Trae needs to be cognizant of when to give up the Iso.   You can look up the percentage but the issue is that in a lot of cases, Trae has been able to hit a shot out of the Iso.. Enough cases that makes him believe that it's alright for him to take that Iso shot.   My issue is that Trae is a much better catch and shoot three point shooter than he is a take his man off the dribble three point shooter. 

Why aren't we trying to run Trae off of screens (when he doesn't have the ball) to set up catch and shoot or catch and drive situations?

Then also , there's no movement when Trae has the ball in the clutch.  Having no movement or a minimum amount of movement allows a defense that's set to tighten up. 

 

[Peoriabird]

23 minutes ago, Diesel said:

 

Then also , there's no movement when Trae has the ball in the clutch.  Having no movement or a minimum amount of movement allows a defense that's set to tighten up. 

 

Who is going to move in iso ball when you as an offensive player knows what coming which is a forced Trae shot. Plus if you move out of your spot, he might just throw it to that spot while under duress assuming you were suppose to be there.