Annnnnnnnd dowwwwnnn the stretch they commmmmmme

[macdaddy]

6 minutes ago, sturt said:

Just for the record....

The 2020-21 season was miserable for as long as it was miserable due in significant part to injuries that (a) kept prime time, rotation players off the floor, and simultaneously but also importantly, (b) kept the rotation from gaining any continuity... and chemistry. (It seems likely the other significant part had to do with the delta between McM's coaching and LP's.)

And the converse is also true... when it wasn't miserable, it wasn't miserable b/c the significant parts were resolved... in fact, it wasn't just "not miserable," it was almost glorious. Glorious, I say. A misplaced ref's foot away from being historically glorious.

 

The 2021-22 season has been... and is... miserable for as long as it's been miserable due to injuries that (a) kept prime time, rotation players off the floor, and simultaneously but also importantly, (b) kept the rotation from gaining any continuity... and chemistry.

And if you think you read that already, you certainly did.

 

The stats showed at the end of 2020-21 that the Hawks had, in fact, been one of the two or three most injury-ravaged teams in the entire association, and if I recall correctly, the most injury-ravaged of those that made the playoffs. Horrific luck.

 

How could we have anticipated that 2021-22 would be worse?

But it most certainly has been. Uber-horrific luck.

For the very few games that there wasn't a key member of the rotation out, this team performed like we'd thought they would... in my Dennis Green voice, "they are who we thought they were." That too-brief span included much of that 7-game win streak when we began to see some light on the horizon.

 

So, for all of my positive vibes in this thread and elsewhere, those were predicated on the team finally getting to a place of health for the rotation pieces, and with that, a place of continuity where their familiarity with each other as much as their individual talent would win games.

That premise has been imploded with JC's situation. Uber-horrific. *sigh*

 

 

 

 

 

 

That's great perspective although the bad news is that the injuries have shined the light brightly on the fact that several players might not reach the potential we thought they had and our player development program might not be up to snuff.   I expect big changes in the summer. 

[sturt]

1 hour ago, macdaddy said:

the injuries have shined the light brightly on the fact that several players might not reach the potential we thought they had

Not sure I follow.

When the core members of the team aren't on the floor, aren't getting time together, that inherently makes a mess of any assessment... they can't become what they would become, had the core members been on the floor.

No?

But I do agree with the prediction made about the off-season. I just... as one might have read between the lines... believe that the data being used by Squawkers now and that will be used by Schlenk later to justify that is... well... "uber-horrifically"... flawed.

[sturt]

Will Jalen get a chance to be the oracle of the 2021-22 season?

 

 

 

McM, it's go time.... see what the rook can do.

 

[sturt]

Kirschner with the on-cue story...

 

[Final_quest]

2 hours ago, sturt said:

Not sure I follow.

When the core members of the team aren't on the floor, aren't getting time together, that inherently makes a mess of any assessment... they can't become what they would become, had the core members been on the floor.

No?

But I do agree with the prediction made about the off-season. I just... as one might have read between the lines... believe that the data being used by Squawkers now and that will be used by Schlenk later to justify that is... well... "uber-horrifically"... flawed.

Again I think you are giving the roster way too much credit.  They were 4-9 to start the year with ALL of the projected starters plus most of the key bench players.  When the core members have been available this team has mostly looked like a shell of the great team they were during last season's run. The players themselves have stated that something is off with the team. 

Are you suggesting we should Stand Pat for this offseason and wait for everyone to get healthy?  Call it a mindset problem vs a talent problem if you want, but we can't stay the course with this roster.  

[Final_quest]

2 hours ago, sturt said:

Kirschner with the on-cue story...

 

@macdaddy are you still seeing Jalen put up empty stats?  Haven't heard your take on everyone clamoring to put him in the games recently.  

[JayBirdHawk]

10 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

Again I think you are giving the roster way too much credit.  They were 4-9 to start the year with ALL of the projected starters plus most of the key bench players

Yes they were all there in body....but....Huerter had offseason ankle surgery, Bogi had offseason knee procedure, Gallo had a shoulder thing, Clint had a heel issue, Hunter was coming off his 2nd knee surgery, Okongwu coming off labrum tear and missed the early part of the season....most didn't practice during training camp and/or play in the preseason...so lack of chemistry along with new coaches and scheme.

[Diesel]

8 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

Again I think you are giving the roster way too much credit.  They were 4-9 to start the year with ALL of the projected starters plus most of the key bench players.  When the core members have been available this team has mostly looked like a shell of the great team they were during last season's run. The players themselves have stated that something is off with the team. 

Are you suggesting we should Stand Pat for this offseason and wait for everyone to get healthy?  Call it a mindset problem vs a talent problem if you want, but we can't stay the course with this roster.  

Uhm...  No OO... No Gallo Remember they were injured. 

Anyway.. We started the season 3-1 with wins over Dallas, Detroit and New Orleans.   Our lone loss was to Cleveland. 

After that this was our stretch..

5	Thu, Oct 28, 2021	7:00p		Box Score	@	Washington Wizards	L		111	122	3	2	L 1
6	Sat, Oct 30, 2021	7:30p		Box Score	@	Philadelphia 76ers	L		94	122	3	3	L 2
7	Mon, Nov 1, 2021	7:30p		Box Score		Washington Wizards	W		118	111	4	3	W 1
8	Wed, Nov 3, 2021	7:30p		Box Score	@	Brooklyn Nets	L		108	117	4	4	L 1
9	Thu, Nov 4, 2021	7:30p		Box Score		Utah Jazz	L		98	116	4	5	L 2
10	Sat, Nov 6, 2021	10:00p		Box Score	@	Phoenix Suns	L		117	121	4	6	L 3
11	Mon, Nov 8, 2021	10:00p		Box Score	@	Golden State Warriors	L		113	127	4	7	L 4
12	Tue, Nov 9, 2021	9:00p		Box Score	@	Utah Jazz	L		98	110	4	8	L 5
13	Fri, Nov 12, 2021	9:00p		Box Score	@	Denver Nuggets	L		96	105	4	9	L

That WC trip was bad...  During this bad stretch, we played everybody at full strength...

After this though, we got better and we won 7 straight. 

 So... yes, we have had some ups and downs... But we have been more injured than well. 

 

[sturt]

1 hour ago, Final_quest said:

They were 4-9 to start the year with ALL of the projected starters plus most of the key bench players.  When the core members have been available this team has mostly looked like a shell of the great team they were during last season's run. The players themselves have stated that something is off with the team.

Concerning the players' analysis, I believe those (Trae and Cap, but I'm not sure who else, if any) who said they came into the season with some complacency. And I believe that, given how they wiped the Mavs with the floor that first game, the mental lull was almost predictable. It was a sign of the overall immaturity that they were not hungry, and as I think I recall being said outright by Trae (?), that the regular season was more of a bore than it was an invigorating chance to show they are real contenders instead of pretenders.

I took it that we agreed on that much previously (?).

So, then, what we see after that 4-9 start you mentioned is a 7 game winning streak... I break it down thusly...

Games 1-21

11-10 (.524)

Very meh... complacency held them back.

Games 21-42

6-16 (.273)

Bone-chilling cold... TLC and even G-Leaguers not only in the rotation, but started games... uber-horrific injuries held them back

Games 43-55

9-4 (.692)

Flaming hot... fire returned (no complacency), health returned for the most part, though it might have been 10-3 had Trae played the TOR game

Games 56-69

8-6 (.571)

Significant injury--to what most consider to be the 2nd most vital asset on the team--brought the team back from flaming hot to back down to something closer to meh

1 hour ago, Final_quest said:

Are you suggesting we should Stand Pat for this offseason and wait for everyone to get healthy?  Call it a mindset problem vs a talent problem if you want, but we can't stay the course with this roster.  

I stand by what I said above.

1. There was specifically a complacency/immaturity problem to start the year... not exactly some incurable "mindset problem." Indeed, to the contrary, that's fixable, and has even shown some signs of having gotten... past tense... fixed.

2. There has been an uber-horrific injury plague this season that even exceeded last season's horrific ordeal. Irrefutable to the point that no one even tries to refute it... they ignore it, yes, but they don't refute it.

3. I believe there will be some fairly major move by TS this off-season. And yeah, that was likely happening anyhow given Gallo's contract, so I and most of us have expected that much.

But this team isn't far off. Not saying "stand pat," but am saying careful how you tinker with this... the results when this team has been (a) locked-in and (b) healthy are the results one would presume of the legitimate contender they showed themselves to be in the 2020-21 post season.

 

[sturt]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Yes they were all there in body....but....Huerter had offseason ankle surgery, Bogi had offseason knee procedure, Gallo had a shoulder thing, Clint had a heel issue, Hunter was coming off his 2nd knee surgery, Okongwu coming off labrum tear and missed the early part of the season....most didn't practice during training camp and/or play in the preseason...so lack of chemistry along with new coaches and scheme.

 

1 hour ago, Diesel said:

Uhm...  No OO... No Gallo Remember they were injured. 

Silly me. Yeah, I forgot.

[macdaddy]

1 hour ago, Final_quest said:

@macdaddy are you still seeing Jalen put up empty stats?  Haven't heard your take on everyone clamoring to put him in the games recently.  

Whoa.  I never said he was putting up empty stats.   I put my take in the other thread but here it is.

I'm ready to see him with the Hawks like everyone else.  No reason he shouldn't be playing.

I think you're referencing that i said he's put up big numbers in part because he's a better athlete than most of the g league.   I stand by that.  Not taking anything away from him but he's getting a lot of easy buckets and rebounds because of it.   Now he's also making some great passes and shooting really well too.   As an example you see him get a lot of rebounds over the back of guys because he's 6'10" with insane hops.   Those won't be as easy in the NBA.   Still i'm not trying to take anything away from him but i think the Hawks want to see him get in better positions on the defensive end.  

If I'm undervaluing him then i'll be ecstatic I just think folks need to be realistic about the difference between gleague and nba.   

[macdaddy]

4 hours ago, sturt said:

Not sure I follow.

When the core members of the team aren't on the floor, aren't getting time together, that inherently makes a mess of any assessment... they can't become what they would become, had the core members been on the floor.

No?

But I do agree with the prediction made about the off-season. I just... as one might have read between the lines... believe that the data being used by Squawkers now and that will be used by Schlenk later to justify that is... well... "uber-horrifically"... flawed.

 

 

So I guess all i'm saying is that out of Bogi, Kev, Cam, Hunter i think we all thought one of those would be an all star or close at some point in the future but when you take away the fully functional team they are exposed as no where near that level.  

[sturt]

1 minute ago, macdaddy said:

So I guess all i'm saying is that out of Bogi, Kev, Cam, Hunter i think we all thought one of those would be an all star or close at some point in the future but when you take away the fully functional team they are exposed as no where near that level.  

Okay. My response is, still...

2 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

When the core members of the team aren't on the floor, aren't getting time together, that inherently makes a mess of any assessment... they can't become what they would become, had the core members been on the floor.

Put in different words, I think there's just been too much injury and too much inconsistency of the rotation in 2021-22 to make any big-picture assessments that stand in denial of what we saw during the good half and the post-season of 2020-21.

I need to see a season more like most other seasons before I'm content to come to any negative conclusions.

 

[macdaddy]

5 minutes ago, sturt said:

Okay. My response is, still...

Put in different words, I think there's just been too much injury and too much inconsistency of the rotation in 2021-22 to make any big-picture assessments that stand in denial of what we saw during the good half and the post-season of 2020-21.

I need to see a season more like most other seasons before I'm content to come to any negative conclusions.

 

To me the question is can we win a championship with Bog/Kev/Hunter as our primary wings?   

[sturt]

To me, we're mid-trial... there is compelling evidence both ways so far, and if we're sent to the jury room at this point, it's an automatic mistrial because I can't vote either way with any confidence.

I only know I need to see a season more like most other seasons before I'm content to come to any negative conclusions.

 

[macdaddy]

5 minutes ago, sturt said:

To me, we're mid-trial... there is compelling evidence both ways so far, and if we're sent to the jury room at this point, it's an automatic mistrial because I can't vote either way with any confidence.

I only know I need to see a season more like most other seasons before I'm content to come to any negative conclusions.

 

Just playing devil's advocate though, we haven't had a single 'most other' seasons.   Hunter and Bogi have been unavailable a lot.  Huerter has been the most consistent but i think we're seeing close to his ceiling.    I don't think coming back with the same rotation, even if healthy, is a recipe for title.   And half the rotation has question marks next to their consistent availability.  

Dont' get me wrong I love this group and wish we were healthy and headed to the playoffs but a lot has gone wrong this year and it's not just injuries. 

[sturt]

4 hours ago, macdaddy said:

Just playing devil's advocate though, we haven't had a single 'most other' seasons. 

Things are cyclical... they regress to the mean, given enough time... it's not silly to believe things swing the complete opposite direction next year.

4 hours ago, macdaddy said:

a lot has gone wrong this year and it's not just injuries. 

Think that's just the frustrated fan talking.... I submit that the reality is, injuries to the degree that we've experienced them have been tectonic... nothing is stable... it keeps anyone from making any solid assessments of what they're seeing... when players don't get time playing together, it's impossible to develop continuity, and breeds bad communication on defense, breeds turnovers and other bad decisions on offense. Consider what we thought we were seeing on the second unit when just one player was pressing to establish himself as an asset worthy of being traded for... how that one element out-of-sync became so clearly consequential when looking the before and after of the Cam trade. Heck, Delon in particular was deemed trash before... and a key piece after. It's a delicate thing this dance of 5 players at a time in a rotation of 8 to 10.

 

It IS just injuries. And, to some degree early on, immaturity. The records correlate and support that conclusion. I don't disregard arguments to the contrary mostly because we're looking at such relatively small sample sizes... that's why if this were a criminal trial, I couldn't come back to the judge saying "beyond a reasonable doubt." Civil trial? That's different. The preponderance of the evidence says this roster is exceptional, given health... and the odds are with us that health is going to swing back to our favor in 2022-23.

[Gray Mule]

Where do we go from here?  Hawks have too many good players and not enough great players.

When we examine all the assets available, we find many.  Skyhawks have some pretty good young assets.  The Hawks have several draft picks coming up soon.  We believe that two Hawks plan to retire.  If that happens, we are still looking about doing something with what we already have.

Some Squawkers have already been checking out the players available in the draft.  Skylar Mays, Jalen Johnson and Sharife Cooper all want to move up.  They all appear ready.  I wouldn't want to trade 0017 or Trae.  That leaves a lot of talented players floating around out there.

Ideas, like noses, are usually around here somewhere.  Share your ideas!

[SalvorMallow]

3 hours ago, Gray Mule said:

Where do we go from here?  Hawks have too many good players and not enough great players.

When we examine all the assets available, we find many.  Skyhawks have some pretty good young assets.  The Hawks have several draft picks coming up soon.  We believe that two Hawks plan to retire.  If that happens, we are still looking about doing something with what we already have.

Some Squawkers have already been checking out the players available in the draft.  Skylar Mays, Jalen Johnson and Sharife Cooper all want to move up.  They all appear ready.  I wouldn't want to trade 0017 or Trae.  That leaves a lot of talented players floating around out there.

Ideas, like noses, are usually around here somewhere.  Share your ideas!

Who, besides Lou, do we expect to retire?

[Guest]

1 hour ago, SalvorMallow said:

Who, besides Lou, do we expect to retire?

Solomon  Hill maybe...but he's no longer ours.