An honest look back at Tanking.

[thecampster]

Lets go back to 2016-2017, 5 seasons ago.  The Hawks were 2 years removed from the 60 win team and had fallen to a 43-39 record. A loud chorus of voices wanted to start tanking to rebuild through high draft picks, claiming we were on the playoff hamster wheel, unable to claim glory but unable to get off the wheel either.

A small minority of us (myself included), advocated for trades to rebuild, not to tank. Risking rebuke, I aligned myself with @kb21 and others to advocate keeping our honor and not losing on purpose.

We are 5 years from that year and our improbable run to the Eastern Conference finals aside, we are set to be right back at 40-45 wins this year. Of our draft hauls, Bruno was a bust and is gone, Cam is gone, our young core is starting to grow into what it will be going forward.  The greatness that is Trae Young aside, the team is no better and an honest assessment would say worse than we were 5 years ago. If it wasn't for Trae, it would be hard to say we could beat the 60 win team of 2014-2015 (side note, how good would peak Demarre Carroll, Paul Millsap look on this squad next to Trae?).

In order to get to where we are, we in the end decided to bring in outside talent in Bogi, Capela, Gallo to get us to where we are.

An honest assessment of this Hawks roster should tell anyone that we are 2 players away from really competing for a title and will need to jettison a few players to get there.

Here's the question. Was it worth it or should we have gone the rebuild, not tank route?

[macdaddy]

100% worth it.   I don't understand the argument.   You're saying tanking wasn't worth it if you forget that we have a HOF, perennial all star talent and a trip to the ECF out of it?   

[Atlantaholic]

20 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

100% worth it.   I don't understand the argument.   You're saying tanking wasn't worth it if you forget that we have a HOF, perennial all star talent and a trip to the ECF out of it?   

This good for nothing team two players away from competing got further than any Hawks team in the history of the city. What is this post even arguing? We could completely unravel have to trade Trae etc, and it still would have been worth it lol. 

[thecampster]

20 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

100% worth it.   I don't understand the argument.   You're saying tanking wasn't worth it if you forget that we have a HOF, perennial all star talent and a trip to the ECF out of it?   

That you don't understand it, bothers me. We are where we were 5 years ago and if we hadn't taken Trae (something most here didn't want to do), we would be in dire straits. We still need to do what we needed to do 5 years ago, rebuild through trades.

[Atlantaholic]

2 minutes ago, thecampster said:

That you don't understand it, bothers me. We are where we were 5 years ago and if we hadn't taken Trae (something most here didn't want to do), we would be in dire straits. We still need to do what we needed to do 5 years ago, rebuild through trades.

And who were we going to trade five years ago to land a 24 year old perennial All Star?

We have a better team and many more trade pieces than five years ago.

[macdaddy]

1 minute ago, thecampster said:

That you don't understand it, bothers me. We are where we were 5 years ago and if we hadn't taken Trae (something most here didn't want to do), we would be in dire straits. We still need to do what we needed to do 5 years ago, rebuild through trades.

Well we aren't where we were 5 years ago.   5 years ago we were a .500 team with no stars and most the main contributers on the wrong side of 30.   I don't understand why you ignore that.   And why do we need to pretend that we don't have Trae?  We do.   

The difference is we have a future.   We have youth and talent.   We have flexibility.   2016-17 we had almost nothing.  Look what those players have gone on to do in the league.  

[dalamchops]

the 60 team win would've barely broken 50 wins if it didn't have that insane undefeated run in january. that team wasn't anything special.

[macdaddy]

3 minutes ago, dalamchops said:

the 60 team win would've barely broken 50 wins if it didn't have that insane undefeated run in january. that team wasn't anything special.

Well I'm going to disagree there.  I think that's just hindsight talking.   We were basically playing modern ball before anyone else in the east was doing it and we were killing people including the Cavs in the regular season if i remember right (maybe i don't).   But we were relying on Teague/Korver instead of Steph/Klay and when we got to the playoffs we couldn't overcome the talent deficit against the Cavs.   Still we did get to the ECF. 

[Atlantaholic]

9 minutes ago, dalamchops said:

the 60 team win would've barely broken 50 wins if it didn't have that insane undefeated run in january. that team wasn't anything special.

I mean that insane run was like half of the season lol. How do you just discount that.

[Atlantaholic]

Just now, Atlantaholic said:

I mean that insane run was like half of the season lol. How do you just discount that.

Problem is they were injured coming into the playoffs and their offense was easier to stop when the game becomes more half court centric and the Hawks didn't have a single alpha that could be the focal point consistently on offense. 

[kg01]

18 minutes ago, thecampster said:

That you don't understand it, bothers me. We are where we were 5 years ago and if we hadn't taken Trae (something most here didn't want to do), we would be in dire straits. We still need to do what we needed to do 5 years ago, rebuild through trades.

I think it's fair to have that criticism.  But I think these two statements:

- 'having to rebuild through trades but having no centerpiece' and

- 'having to rebuild through trades but having an actual centerpiece'

.. are only separated by a few words, but represent vastly different situations.

[NBASupes]

Guys still in their rookie deals 

[Diesel]

1 hour ago, thecampster said:

That you don't understand it, bothers me. We are where we were 5 years ago and if we hadn't taken Trae (something most here didn't want to do), we would be in dire straits. We still need to do what we needed to do 5 years ago, rebuild through trades.

The problem Campster is that tanking did put us in great position.   We were fortunate and picked Trae.  We also made possible mistakes with all the rest.   That's the nature of Drafting.   What will become of these first round picks... we dont know yet.   But we did get Trae. 

Tanking has been problematic for us in the pass because our best picks from tanking were Marvin Williams and Shelden Williams-Parker.  And before that it was Shareef instead of Gasol.   So we have a bad track-record with tanking but that was based on who was the GM..

I believe that this time we got it right.   It's now up to the GM to build a winner around Trae. 

[thecampster]

1 hour ago, macdaddy said:

Well we aren't where we were 5 years ago.   5 years ago we were a .500 team with no stars and most the main contributers on the wrong side of 30.   I don't understand why you ignore that.   And why do we need to pretend that we don't have Trae?  We do.   

The difference is we have a future.   We have youth and talent.   We have flexibility.   2016-17 we had almost nothing.  Look what those players have gone on to do in the league.  

5 years ago was Dwight/Dennis.  7 years ago was the 60 win team.

[JayBirdHawk]

We drafted a 'cornerstone' player that has energized the fanbase and isn't a shrinking violet when the spotlight is brightest.

[Final_quest]

I agree with most of these takes.  This is a down year, but we have a much better foundation moving forward.  Including the most important piece for any contender, we drafted a superstar.  Trae is doing things that only superstars have done, Joe Johnson's career high was like 44 points.  Trae puts up numbers like that every month.  

Additionally, all of our contracts are reasonable/tradeable.  We have draft capital and a few young prospects that are promising, Jalen has played 68 minutes total.  In short we have flexibility with the roster and a couple guys that could really blossom.  The pendulum is swinging upwards.  We are not even remotely in the same place.  

[AHF]

Anyone who thinks that we could have traded players to fix what was wrong with that team is not on the same page as me for sure.

5 years ago we were:

43-39 with a negative point difference and an expected record of 39-43.  While we we were lucky to make the playoffs that season, the team was headed into the lottery whether it decided to tank or not.

Our team was:

Paul Millsap - Age 32 - UFA - Signed for $31M (up from his $20M salary the previous year)

Trade Potential:  Zero.  He was an unrestricted FA.  He was going to chase the money and nobody was going to offer us a big sign and trade deal to beat Denver's contract.  If we outbid Denver to resign him, there is no trading him for big value as he immediately started his 30-something decline the moment we traded him and that decline got worse every season.

Dennis Schroder - Age 24 - Under contract for $15.5M per year.  

Trade Potential:  Low.  We shopped him and traded him and got very little in return which is not shocking given that he was a below average point guard on a significant contract.  He became a bench player after his departure from Atlanta.

Dwight Howard - Age 32 - Under contract for $23.5M

Trade Potential:  Toxic Asset.  Wasn't worth his contract and not a player any team coveted.  Has been a one-and-done with every team since wearing out his welcome in short order.

Tim Hardaway Jr - Age 25 - RFA

Trade Potential:  Very, very low since he was a FA.  The Knicks signed him with an overpay ~$17M per offer that the Hawks chose not to match.  Would another team have really traded for him in that circumstance?  If so, they would have only been getting the match rights or they would have been trading as part of a sign and trade deal that would only make sense if they were capped out and willing to exceed NY's offer.  There was nobody genuinely in that box.  Of all the players on the team, he held up the best.

Kent Bazemore - Age 28 - Under contract for $16-19M per over the next 3 years

Trade Potential:  Toxic Asset.  Wasn't worth his contract and nobody wanted him on that deal.  Became a subpar bench player for other teams after departing Atlanta.

Taurean Prince - Age 23 - On the second year of his rookie deal

Trade Potential:  Strong if you aren't expecting a big return.  While he wasn't a star by any means, he was on a team controlled contract and showed some potential.  The problem here is that if you want to rebuild you want competent young players so who are you trading him for that improves your roster to allow you to keep competing?  We did trade him and landed an overpriced Crabbe and the #17 pick for him.  That doesn't reflect the kind of interest that would allow you to land core players.

No one else on the roster is even worth discussing.  If you resign that roster, you are capped out and suck.  If you try to trade them for value at that point (having missed the real window to trade and rebuild on the fly two years prior), there isn't much ability to get meaningful value in return.

So where was this team going that looks so much better than Trae, JC, et al?

 

No regrets on this in the slightest.  Absolute right decision to lean into the lottery experience when we were inevitably heading into the lottery anyway.

[Atlantaholic]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

We drafted a 'cornerstone' player that has energized the fanbase and isn't a shrinking violet when the spotlight is brightest.

Aren't we having better attendance now than basically at any point in our history post Nique?

[Diesel]

22 minutes ago, Atlantaholic said:

Aren't we having better attendance now than basically at any point in our history post Nique?

You're going to bring a tear to Nique's eyes.... Playing in front of seats as an allstar.

[macdaddy]

2 hours ago, Atlantaholic said:

Aren't we having better attendance now than basically at any point in our history post Nique?

It's hard to judge really since there has been so much shenanigans and corporate empty seats in the Hawks past attendance numbers.  But the eye test says yes.