Discussion of The Conclusions One Can Draw from the Miami Series

[AHF]

3 hours ago, bleachkit said:

JC was playing. Hurt or not he was still playing. You don't get to pretend be doesn't count. The laughable rationalizations we make for the Hawks we would never afford another team in any debate. We got our butts whooped. Full stop. 

Yeah.  I remember how Trae was super effective last year in the playoffs after he got injured!

Come on, bleach.  It counts as JC playing extremely limited minutes on the floor where he can’t leap, shoot or catch the ball like normal.  What does that leave him with?  Heart gutting out what he can.  He was there but he could not play his game and it fundamentally changed what we could do on offense.

Now I don’t make the leap from there to “Atlanta would have beat Miami with JC and CC!”  Instead, I merely say that their injuries severely limited what we could do on both ends of the floor and Miami took full advantage of it.  What would have happened had they been healthy?  Who knows.  Miami would still have been the favorite but it would have been a different series.  Maybe the same outcome.  Maybe not.  We don’t know but we shouldn’t pretend like JC was functional.

[AHF]

1 hour ago, Sothron said:

Seriously, can we keep this is to trade rumors or ask questions of the insiders? This is becoming once again a daily talk thread.

Apologies since I apparently just contributed to that.  Will take that off thread going forward.

[bleachkit]

29 minutes ago, AHF said:

Yeah.  I remember how Trae was super effective last year in the playoffs after he got injured!

Come on, bleach.  It counts as JC playing extremely limited minutes on the floor where he can’t leap, shoot or catch the ball like normal.  What does that leave him with?  Heart gutting out what he can.  He was there but he could not play his game and it fundamentally changed what we could do on offense.

Now I don’t make the leap from there to “Atlanta would have beat Miami with JC and CC!”  Instead, I merely say that their injuries severely limited what we could do on both ends of the floor and Miami took full advantage of it.  What would have happened had they been healthy?  Who knows.  Miami would still have been the favorite but it would have been a different series.  Maybe the same outcome.  Maybe not.  We don’t know but we shouldn’t pretend like JC was functional.

Did I mention they beat us in a close out game with no Jimmy Butler? 

[Diesel]

4 hours ago, bleachkit said:

JC was playing. Hurt or not he was still playing. You don't get to pretend be doesn't count. The laughable rationalizations we make for the Hawks we would never afford another team in any debate. We got our butts whooped. Full stop. 

He couldn't jump or catch a pass...  That's not playing, he was just out there.... Laughable is you would look at this cripled man on the court and think that he would be able to contribute... You are worst than Nate.

[Diesel]

1 hour ago, terrell said:

JC  best asset is a PnR partner to Trae. The issue is that Capela is at his best offensively...as a PnR partner to Trae. Two guys screening a rolling to the rim is one too many when you have a starting lineup with very little shot creation outside of Trae.  I feel like the Hawks need more of a creator at the 4 rather than a rim runner if you employ Trae and Capela or Gobert.

 

JC don't have a stretch game???  JC is not a lob catcher from the baseline (backdoor)??  What???  No room for a PF that stretches the defense with his three point shot??  Nobody needs a PF who shoots almost 40% from 3 right??  Of course not.. I mean, if that were important, then there would be no way we could play OO at PF.

Once again... more FAKE Facts From the Agendavese...

[Diesel]

22 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

Did I mention they beat us in a close out game with no Jimmy Butler? 

You mean when we had no Lou, No Bogi, No CC, and a very banged up JC who couldn't Jump or catch the ball??  Yeah.. you mentioned it.. but it didn't register much....

 

[Peoriabird]

21 minutes ago, Diesel said:

JC don't have a stretch game???  JC is not a lob catcher from the baseline (backdoor)??  What???  No room for a PF that stretches the defense with his three point shot??  Nobody needs a PF who shoots almost 40% from 3 right??  Of course not.. I mean, if that were important, then there would be no way we could play OO at PF.

Once again... more FAKE Facts From the Agendavese...

I don't know how y'all do it day in and day out.  Gotta tip my hat to guys that come here and listen to the same garbage and argue like it is new news.

[AHF]

1 hour ago, bleachkit said:

Did I mention they beat us in a close out game with no Jimmy Butler? 

Right.  Don’t see how that is relevant to what I said.

They replaced Jimmy with Oladipo who stepped right in for 23 points.  They ran all the same schemes on both sides of the floor.  Oladipo can’t sustain high play but he is still talented enough to step up from time to time and did so that game to get the 3 point win.  Atlanta remained unable to run their normal offense or defense.  Butler’s absence did not change that at all which is to say that Atlanta played the full series with a limited playbook.  We might lose with a full team (again, Miami is the favorite in that scenario) but all we know from the series is we lose with crippled interior defense and offense versus Miami this year and that setup isn’t particularly close.

[bleachkit]

30 minutes ago, AHF said:

Right.  Don’t see how that is relevant to what I said.

They replaced Jimmy with Oladipo who stepped right in for 23 points.  They ran all the same schemes on both sides of the floor.  Oladipo can’t sustain high play but he is still talented enough to step up from time to time and did so that game to get the 3 point win.  Atlanta remained unable to run their normal offense or defense.  Butler’s absence did not change that at all which is to say that Atlanta played the full series with a limited playbook.  We might lose with a full team (again, Miami is the favorite in that scenario) but all we know from the series is we lose with crippled interior defense and offense versus Miami this year and that setup isn’t particularly close.

So in summation, our injuries count. Their injuries don't count. Ok, usually your very objective and unbiased in your analysis, that doesn't appear to be the case this time.

[sturt]

9 hours ago, bleachkit said:

We lost a close out game to the Heat and they had no Lowry or Butler.

Forgive me if I missed it (... see how it's done?... ) but I think I see you avoided debunking the three reasons provided to you asserting that the MIA series has to be put in context... that it's not valid to extrapolate from it we've hit a ceiling, and are in need of a major overhaul... and to the specific point raised... that there is almost no integrity in alleging that when we hit the wall vs. MIA following our two play-in wins, that somehow demolishes .621--ie, the Real Hawks' outcome in the 60 (not 5) games they played with enough horses for the starting line-up to not have to feature players night after night after night not even considered talented enough to be part of a team's rotation, or yes, not even considered talented enough to be on a team's 15-man roster.

 

And if I'm going to quote you, I"m not going to sit here and be dismissive and/or pretend there's no there there.... which is my preface to say...

THAT game bothered me. It really really did.

What @AHF said is all valid, too, but I really felt like that's got to be a game that our people study hard in the off-season, to fully understand how we didn't even really compete. I don't dismiss any of the plausible explanations, and every single person who played or coached that game should have been interviewed to ascertain some well-grounded answer as to how that one got so out of hand given all of the factors, pro and con.

 

BUT. It's still just one game. There are 60+2+4 others that have to be given appropriate weight in the analysis as well.

 

 

[AHF]

14 hours ago, bleachkit said:

So in summation, our injuries count. Their injuries don't count. Ok, usually your very objective and unbiased in your analysis, that doesn't appear to be the case this time.

Nope.  Their injuries count as well.  But their injuries were less impactful because they had guys who came off the bench and either played better than the lost starter (Vincent over Lowry that series) or gave 90% of what you would expect from the starter (Dipo in that specific game).  

You give me your objective analysis and tell me what key elements of their offense and defense Miami was unable to run without Lowry and Butler.  Where I'd say it impacted Miami the most were in the minutes when Oladipo wasn't on the floor.  Dipo was Butler equivalent on offense and a step down but respectable substitute on defense.  

I would make the analogy to a scenario where Atlanta loses Bogi and Huerter steps in with a 15 point efficient shooting night.  Maybe that isn't everything a healthy Bogi could give you and now when Huerter is on the bench there is a dropoff in bench play, but the Hawks can run pretty much all the same stuff with Bogi or Huerter in the game.  So the loss is real but the impact is not the equivalent to what it was for the Hawks being unable to run their core schemes on both sides of the floor.

Now I do think you can make the case that this reveals a difference in quality depth between the rosters this season and therefore justifies a conclusion that Miami had the better team.  That is fair.  But it is not fair to say that what Atlanta did was representative of what it would have done had it been able to run its normal PnR offense and had its defensive anchor for the series.  I'm saying we don't know the outcome of that.

In the regular season, we have a small sample size issue.  The Hawks played Miami with JC and Cap once this season and beat them that game (Miami had Jimmy, Bam, etc. but was without Lowry for that one).  So the regular season doesn't actually give us any information on how the teams matched up when healthy since at least one team was missing a key regular whenever they played.  

So again, here are at least some of the conclusions that I think we can draw from the series:

1. We don't know how the healthy teams match up because we did not see a single game where either team had all their starters in the regular season or post-season.
2. We know the Hawks were crippled in terms of what they could do on the floor relative to their normal baseline game plan on both sides of the ball. 
3. We know that given those limitations, Miami was able to throttle the Hawks and even win without Butler (and Lowry although I don't think Lowry's absence was particularly significant given the level at which Vincent played and what we saw from Lowry before his loss). 

Don't see how anyone could argue that any of those conclusions are not accurate but welcome an analysis that goes deeper than a simple conclusion such as "they beat us without Butler and Lowry therefore we know our team can't compete with them when healthy."

[sturt]

(It's really really nice when AHF happens to agree with me on something... saves me so much time/thought/effort, because I only would have said what he said, and he says it better anyhow. )

[AHF]

23 minutes ago, sturt said:

(It's really really nice when AHF happens to agree with me on something... saves me so much time/thought/effort, because I only would have said what he said, and he says it better anyhow. )

Always good to agree but it would be boring if we all agreed on everything.  Definitely don't agree with saying it better since you frequently bring substantive posts with unique insights on an issue but appreciate the kind words.

[TRW]

Guys, this series with Miami reminds me of our overreaction to the New York Knicks series years ago. We had tired legs and got destroyed by Latrell Sprewell and Allan Houston. Steve Smith and Mookie Blaylock looked old and washed up but if I'm not mistaken had just came off of a brutal series just before that one. The front office panicked and traded Steve Smith for J.R. Rider and got rid of Mookie and drafted Jason Terry. Those moves set us back for years. This off-season looks eerie similar and let's hope that Travis and Landry don't  panic and make a move just to make one.

[hylndr11]

21 minutes ago, TRW said:

Guys, this series with Miami reminds me of our overreaction to the New York Knicks series years ago. We had tired legs and got destroyed by Latrell Sprewell and Allan Houston. Steve Smith and Mookie Blaylock looked old and washed up but if I'm not mistaken had just came off of a brutal series just before that one. The front office panicked and traded Steve Smith for J.R. Rider and got rid of Mookie and drafted Jason Terry. Those moves set us back for years. This off-season looks eerie similar and let's hope that Travis and Landry don't  panic and make a move just to make one.

This is what I'm saying, hunter has.to develop u have to let him all the big wings we want like.him took awhile, as did most.if these players we covet right now.  Trae also has.to.get better and he most certainly will.

[AHF]

39 minutes ago, TRW said:

Guys, this series with Miami reminds me of our overreaction to the New York Knicks series years ago. We had tired legs and got destroyed by Latrell Sprewell and Allan Houston. Steve Smith and Mookie Blaylock looked old and washed up but if I'm not mistaken had just came off of a brutal series just before that one. The front office panicked and traded Steve Smith for J.R. Rider and got rid of Mookie and drafted Jason Terry. Those moves set us back for years. This off-season looks eerie similar and let's hope that Travis and Landry don't  panic and make a move just to make one.

Fully agree on not making a move just to make one or panicking, etc. but I'm also not afraid of a move that helps the team build for the next 5 years.  I'm thinking of a deal like the Bulls dealing Charles Oakley to the Knicks after making the playoffs with a young Jordan, Pippen, Ho Grant, etc.  That helped balance their roster and didn't stop them from becoming the juggernaut they became.

[Final_quest]

I think we could certainly overreact to that series, but a primary take away is it shows how dependent we are on Trae.  One question I have is could we find another playmaker/facilitator or someone who can iso without that person needing to be a top 30 or even top 50 player.  Something like what Dallas has with Brogdon.  Lou Williams or Jamal Crawford in their prime weren't big salaries but they could spark your offense.  

If we do get Gobert or Ayton, I think we still need another bucket generator.  Does that person need to be allstar level?  I don't think so, but I also don't really have a guy in mind for that role.  

[JayBirdHawk]

13 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

it shows how dependent we are on Trae.  One question I have is could we find another playmaker/facilitator

Since drafting Trae, we go into every offseason saying we need to fill this spot - no different this year.

[sturt]

Did someone say "find another playmaker/facilitator"???

 

 

[Sothron]

6 hours ago, TRW said:

Guys, this series with Miami reminds me of our overreaction to the New York Knicks series years ago. We had tired legs and got destroyed by Latrell Sprewell and Allan Houston. Steve Smith and Mookie Blaylock looked old and washed up but if I'm not mistaken had just came off of a brutal series just before that one. The front office panicked and traded Steve Smith for J.R. Rider and got rid of Mookie and drafted Jason Terry. Those moves set us back for years. This off-season looks eerie similar and let's hope that Travis and Landry don't  panic and make a move just to make one.

Story time.

I used to have an acquittance relationship with Pete Babcock our old GM. He was never a "source" for me. We just talked a lot of the Hawks and basketball in general for a number of years. He told me the only thing he truly regretted because it was his mistake was trading Steve Smith for JR Rider. He had no idea just how crazy and a cancer Rider had become at that point. He said he completely underestimated what kind of leadership and chemistry Steve Smith had in the locker room and the team. 

So when we made that deal it did in fact set us back years. And Pete knew it. He told me if he knew SAR's knees would give out on him so early he would have kept our pick and drafted Pau Gasol. I try not to think about what 10 years or so of Pau Gasol could have meant on the Hawks. But that wasn't his mistake. He classified the Smith/Rider trade as being all on him because of how much undervalued what Smitty brought.

I have a feeling if we trade Collins and don't bring in a leader then we are repeating that trade oh so many years ago.