I had a chance to breakdown college film of Pascal Siakam, John Collins, and Mouhamed Gueye

[NBASupes]

https://tankathon.com/players/compare?players=mouhamed-gueye--pascal-siakam--john-collins

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/John-Collins-76415/

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/pascal-siakam-87577/

 

https://www.nbadraft.net/players/john-collins/

https://www.barstoolsports.com/blog/781542/nba-draft-scouting-report-john-collins-strengths-weaknesses-and-comparison

Topics:

Offense

Defense 

Readiness

Skill-set

What did JC and Siakam do to improve and what does Gueye need to do - Each Section 

 

Grades: 

10 - NBA Stud

9 - Pro level

8 - Got a few strengths

7 - Fairly Limited

6 - Not ready for the pros at all

5 - Terrible 

Offense: 

JC: 8.5

Gueye: 8

Siakam: 7

All three of these guys had impressive offensive tape. None of these guys were Oscar Tsweibwe. Just straight up using size and instincts to score along in college which doesn't translate to the NBA. 

JC

JC was the best. He probably had the smallest post bag of the three but if you have two pitches and they are special, it's going to be better than if you have four and they are decent or five they are average at best. 

JC was so unique in college. His post-game while not diverse was extremely effective as we have seen in the NBA. He's so active and explosive. Still the best catch radius and hands of any big I've seen. Even better than Shawn Kemp. He wasn't afraid to put the ball down to get to a spot and he was so explosive, no one could jump with him. Just impossible to stop at this level and he has tremendous rebounding instincts.

I actually think his rebounding instincts are much better than Siakam's at the same stage. JC's post-up synergy is the stuff of legends. He was an extremely polished college post-player. Even though his screens were horrendous at this level and he figured out to flare in the NBA which he became elite at in the NBA, his roll speed was elite even then and it showed the flashes that he could be a good PnR finisher even if it wasn't really a thing at Wake. JC ability to fight for position for the post-up was at a professional level even then. It was special. His motor special. It feels like CJ and Siakam were in their own tiers in terms of motor. 

What I didn't like from JC was he didn't hardly take a shot outside of the paint. He mainly let the main thing be the main thing. Also he was a poor screen setter. I didn't like that at all. He also never created outside of the paint. His passing was horrendous and he was exclusively a finisher.

That said, JC was polished, easily the best of the three in terms of posting up, scoring, and finishing, just impossible to stop at this level. Siakam mainly did most of his work against weaker defenders who were smaller. JC did it against anyone. It didn't matter who. JC's limitations are the reason why he's not a 9 or better but his strengths are pro-level. 

Gueye

Gueye is much better when watching him than reading stat sheets. Wazzu runs their offense through his screens and vision. He's primarily a playmaking 5. Used similarly like the Suns used Ayton years ago when they made the run to the Finals and the 1st place team the year after but they actually give Gueye passing actions as well which is highly advanced compared to the other two players. While I wouldn't say his passing is a plus, his vision and reading are a plus and he understands spacing which also is a plus. His assist rate is 14% which is excellent and especially important since he's critical to their system. He can run all types of big playmaking actions. It's his most valuable strength for now.

Gueye is an excellent screener. Even though he's not the biggest (212), he screens like Brandon Clarke where he's always putting a hat on his defender. He gets a ton of screen assists. He's also really good at rolling. Not close to the level of JC but with excellent speed for his size, tremendous hands, and length, he finished with a 1.21PPP for PnR and PnP which is amazing because he has a good number of PnP attempts from 3 in that stat. It's not all just PnR. Unlike Clarke, his frame should give him the ability to get to 230 with maturity. Clarke was already mature when he entered the NBA. Gueye also has tremendous hands, length, footwork, good quickness for his size, elite ability to attain skill, good straight-line speed, and he's very agile but not the most fluid. As fluid as JC but not as fluid as Siakam. 

His ability to attain skill is most impressive. He has the 3rd biggest bag for a 2nd rounder with Emoni Bates at #1 and G.G. Jackson at #2 for the biggest bag (ball skills). After only one season of organized ball, he was doing stepbacks, Dirk's fakes, dribble combos, making difficult contested shots, things that some guys can never do in their life, he picked up in one year and made it look easy. Some guys just got the ability to pick up skill insanely fast and he's one of them. While this isn't the most rare of traits, usually on physical marvels, it is. I think another underrated thing is how well and quickly he attacks space. This is really hard to do in college but the NBA, space is common and his ability isn't. It should show up ASAP when watching summer league. 

Where Gueye struggles or his weakness offensively is, he's not exactly good at anything other than the above.

Shooting - Form looks good, even the pace on his shot but he doesn't exactly make a lot of shots. He has a 33% EFG on C&S. That's in the 12th percentile and it's a data killer. That said, nice shot, soft touch, three-level shooter. He doesn't seem to have a vision or balance issue so usually what this means is experience or reps. The general rule of thumb is 10,000 hours and if you started playing at 15, you are just too raw at this stage. He needs a lot more reps. 

Post-Up - 0.87PPP on 32% of his offense at the 59th percentile isn't exactly what you want to see from a NBA big man prospect. Most of them are in the 80s and 90s. Guys like JC are in the 99th. While he has the biggest post bag by a mile of the three, he isn't exactly good at anything in the post other than finishing at the rim 61% FG whereas JC is at a rare 69%. 

Shot Selection - While I didn't think it was awful, he bricked too many shots, and the response, I'm gonna shot it again. Some of his shots, he didn't have a feel for it, it would get blocked, he just didn't have the polish that JC had where you rarely if ever saw that. 

Drawing fouls - While he could draw and-1 fouls and was good at it, he wasn't drawing a ton of post-up fouls. Most of his fouls drawn came from put-backs, slashing, rolling, and driving but due to his lack of polish in the post, no one really was scared of Gueye at all. Also, his weight is an issue at 212, he just is too small at this stage and considering his size and height. 

Siakam 

While he has a 7, I felt he had the most translatable offensive game. 

It's pure elite motor, excellent speed, agility, and fluidity with very good rebounding instincts, not as good as JC but superior to Gueye. Not to mention has the length, strength for the college level, obviously, needs to add more weight for the NBA. 

He wasn't an excellent finisher but for his level 295 SOS, he was excellent for that level and his motor and rebounding skills had him looking like a shade of Rodman at this level. 

He has an elite motor + tools + knows his role = a confident prospect and offensively, he wasn't really anything special. He did show that he wasn't exactly flawed either. 

The biggest thing that stood out about Siakam is he wasn't really flawed. He didn't shoot much but his shot didn't look back. Listen to what Coach Drew from Baylor said about him:

"But this season he moved away from the basket. He was putting the ball on the floor, taking longer jumpers—but still mixing it up down low, too. He's got a more versatile skill set now, which makes him dangerous because it means he can play multiple positions."

Here's a section from the BR on him: 

The guy plays every minute like he's battling for his job. That play at UMKC also spoke to his quickness. He can fly for a big man, and he's really quick off the floor. Combine that with his 7'2 ½" wingspan, and he's able to rebound outside of his area and also gets a lot of deflections on defense. Over NMSU's final 15 games, he had three or more steals four times. 

Offensively, Siakam is at his best scoring around the basket, but he expanded his game this past year by adding a jumper. He made only three of them as a freshman, according to Synergy Sports, and he had much more confidence in his shot as a sophomore. He made 135-of-308 two-point jumpers during 2015-16, according play-by-play data at Hoop-Math.com. 

"The main thing that impressed me on him was the fact that he made the big leap in improvement hitting the 12- to 15-foot jumper," a scout told B/R. "Last year, he was a guy that didn't shoot that shot, and now he's a guy who has a very good-looking jump shot."

Offensively, it's hard to get hyped about him in college, he wasn't asked to do much and didn't show much. But he didn't show many flaws. Now we see this for example Thomas Robinson and the guy flops hard then again, we see this from Siakam and he's a top 25 NBA player now. So it's hard to say. 

What did JC and Siakam do to improve and what does Gueye need to do

JC became an elite flare screen PnR guy and it turned his PnR play into an elite play. 

JC added range. First the mid-range in the NBA and then moved to the 3-point line while under Coach Bud. This helped him add the PnP to his list. 

JC never really added much other than that offensively. Defensively is where he took a massive jump. His best additional outside of what I previous mentioned was his shooting improvement, especially his face-up J. 

Siakam improved everything outside of motor which might have dropped. 

Ball handling is #1. He really didn't put the ball on the deck much in college, in the NBA, he looked different. 

 

Shooting #2, he had range and his shot doesn't just look good, it goes in. 

Passing #3, for someone who didn't even flash much passing, he looked good doing it in the NBA. His vision was impressive as well. 

Attacking Space #4, he was Pippen like at this. Teams now know it so they gameplan heavy for this. I do wonder if he would be as effective at this again if he wasn't the #1 option anymore. 

Siakam is by far the most improved of him and JC on offense. The main reason is, he just doesn't have the flaws JC had. Once he developed his strengths, he had a lot more due to having less flaws. 

I still see flaws though nonetheless. Still a fairly limited post-player. Still isn't much of a screen setter and that impacts the roll heavily. To be frank, he plays like a 3 offensively while being a versatile 4 defensively. He's not as good defensively as he used to be but he's still effective. 

I don't find him to be the ideal 4 and I continue to say that. I like 4s who run PnRs, can shoot, can create with or without the ball, and have high BBIQ. I generally prefer Draymond Green over Siakam. Definitely would take AD over Siakam. Considering JJJ level right now and Siakam level right now as he's not as good as he used to be defensively, I would likely take JJJ as well. 

As for a Gueye. He's superior to college Siakam. It's not even close and he's close to college JC but college JC is a tier better. He just needs to become polished but he's far more capable offensively than Siakam. If he can improve like Siakam, he could be generational. That said, defense is way more valuable than offense for 4s and Siakam has a large edge. That said, Gueye could become elite on offense. Something Siakam just doesn't have in him but Gueye will have to substantially improve. 

 

Defense 

JC: 6

Gueye: 5.5

Siakam: 8.5

To be continued - Tomorrow 6/26/2023

[NBASupes]

I'll add defense tomorrow but before I continue, I want to say, what the hell was BudCox doing drafting Bembry ahead of Siakam and they worked him out too. 

I get it, I am Capt. Hindsight right now. But Siakam's defense is real. You can see it in workouts. His jumper doesn't look broken, unlike Bembry. His speed and motor were Bazemore-like. How do you pass on him for Bembry? I just got done evaluating these three and I can see how someone can pass on JC or Gueye. But Siakam plays defense exactly how we were playing defense at the time. He had the length and ability. How? Seriously, HOW? 

I'll talk about Siakam's defense tomorrow. His biggest draft issue was just not enough film playing man defense since NM State is a massively large team, Siakam plays PF and his center is usually very big and not mobile so they have to stay in a zone. That said, when Siakam played man, it was legit ya'll. Even with mistakes, he easily erased them. Offensively, he was limited but he showed a promising jump shot. We just flat-out missed on him and it's insane. Siakam should have been drafted by the Hawks. 

[NBASupes]

Defense 

JC: 6

Gueye: 5.5

Siakam: 8.5

JC was knocked a tad too heavy on defense as if he was Kanter. 

I think DX nailed it with JC

The biggest hurdles Collins will have to overcome in carving out an important niche at the NBA level will likely come on the defensive side of the ball, where he has some major strides to make with his feel and awareness. He looked hopelessly lost at times while struggling to read the floor, which led to him giving up bucket after bucket. He had a tough time moving in space to stay in front of dribble penetration or his man cutting to the rim and didn't always fight hard to get back into the play after he was beat, an issue that plagued Wake Forest's entire team last season.  

He was in foul trouble throughout his two collegiate seasons, committing over four fouls per 40 minutes. This led him to be hesitant defensively to avoid staying out of foul trouble and in a smaller role, he will need to play with energy and no fear of fouling on each possession.  

Despite his shortcomings defensively, Collins did show flashes of potential at times, most notably with his tenacity on the defensive glass. He was able to pull down 9.1 defensive rebounds per 40 minutes and was willing to fight for loose balls in traffic and track down missed shots outside his area. He also blocked 2.4 shots per 40 minutes, a solid mark for a player with his measurables.

He showed good timing to get off the ground quickly and recognition of verticality when he was in front of his opponent to alter shots at the rim. It's unlikely he will become a dominant rim protector due to his reach, and he was often swiping at the ball or chasing blocks, but he can definitely grow into a player who makes it difficult for opponents around the rim thanks to his athleticism and natural instincts. - Source: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/John-Collins-76415/ ©DraftExpress

Strengths: 

His biggest strength was rim protection and it translated to the NBA but that was by far his biggest strength. This is critical for a big, you must be able to rim protect. Especially at the 5. While he isn't special at it, with his measurements, he's pretty advanced. 

Rebounding - While this while due to the fact that he's just not that big or long, it was special in college. 9.1 RPG per40 is tremendous and as I mentioned earlier, he's a more advanced rebounder than Siakam. JC has legit rebounding skills and if he wasn't playing next to Capela, I believe he's a 10-11 RPG guy. 

Weaknesses: 

While I wouldn't say JC has a lot of defensive weaknesses coming out. He had some major flaws which still show today and it limits him even as he grew as a defender. 

Lateral quickness - He struggles at moving his feet. While this is something that has improved while in the NBA, in college, there were too many times, his feet looked like they were stuck in the sand. 

Play recognition skills - Probably where he grew the most in the NBA over his career. JC's awareness was low and when he went to the NBA, it got lower as bigs are asked to do a lot on defense. But he made a serious effort to really improve in this area to the point where it's no longer a weakness. 

Lack of traits - Probably to this day, his biggest hindrance as an NBA big. He's way too small to be a small-ball 5 and start. He's lacking too much quickness to defend on the perimeter consistently. As a 4, he struggles with skilled bigs as his defensive instincts have generally been average at best and were below average when he came into the NBA. 6'11, not the biggest mitts, below average lateral quickness, poor play recognition as a prospect but decent as a vet isn't going to make teams' mouth water for JC. 

As I mentioned previously, teams value defense and versatility from 4s and 5s more than offense unless you are elite offensively. 

Versatility - I mentioned part of it above but he's never been versatile on defense. In college, even as a 5, he was pretty bad on defense. In fact, his improvement in the NBA made it to where he can at least be an effective defender at the 4. Especially if he's not in the playoffs playing against a stud which is a struggle for him. 

Gueye

I actually think he's a lot worse than the data points. The reason why is so many of his strengths are traits based. So many traits-based guys have failed in the NBA. Defense isn't something that takes ten years to instinctively get good at. You can do it fairly quickly.

Strengths: 

He has four main strengths on defense. 

1. Communication - He already is calling out plays, where players are going, trying to get his guys into the right spots. It seemed like only DJ Rodman understood defense at Washington State. It wasn't pretty but I did think his communication was a plus.  

2. Vision - One of his biggest strengths on offense is also there on D. He sees things and communicates it exceptionally well. He just doesn't react well himself but he can see it. I wouldn't exactly say it's a plus but it's there. 

3. Traits - He has excellent traits. Good lateral quickness. Tremendous hands which really help when rebounding. He has a strong core so you don't see people push him around like he's wood. Good hand length and width. He has lightning-quick hands for a big. Elite 7'3.5 wingspan with an excellent standing reach, explosive with an excellent 2nd jump. For a 4, he's in the optimal state for traits in the NBA and he's in the optimal state for a 5 in the NCAA. A big part of his defensive value is based on traits. He does alter shots due to his traits.

4. Man defense - While it wasn't pretty and he was constantly late, he was tough to score on if he was in the correct position. He slides his feet decently. He could force slashers into bad positions and he got most of his blocks on man coverage. While this is closer to average and may be below average, it's clearly a strength for Gueye. 

Weaknesses:

There are six clear weaknesses

1. Fluidity - While this is probably his biggest strength of the weaknesses.  His fluidity like JC is fine offensively and like JC, he moves fluidly, and defensively, he just doesn't move like a wing at all. Look at someone like Jaden McDaniels. He's a college big who poorly slides his feet but he's excellent in terms of fluidity. Once he learned how to use his feet, he became a defensive stopper in the NBA. Fluidity is big for perimeter defense. 

2. Awareness - His worst quality right now. He just doesn't have good awareness. He's constantly out of position against teams who know how to move the ball. Stationary teams, he's okay wise but when the ball moves and players move, he gets lost. This is where Wake's JC is better. Even though this happened with him as well, he really improved as a Soph to make this not as exposed. 

3. Versatility - I don't believe he can guard any position based on his college tape. Maybe he does an A.J. Griffin and because of his traits and the fact that the NBA lets you defend with your hands to a small degree and your body, his defense at the 4 is much better than what we saw at college as was the case with Griffin at the 2. As of right now, he projects to be a poor defensive 4. Unplayable defensive 5. Doesn't have the fluidity to defend consistently on the perimeter. It's looking bleak. 

4. Rim Protection - While I am higher on his shot-blocking skills than the data shows, I am extremely low on his rim protection. I don't believe he can protect the rim at all. The timing isn't there even if the positioning is. I don't see it at all. 

5. Paint Protection - While I do believe he provides more paint protection than JC just due to his measurements and traits, he just doesn't have the positioning, the timing, the feel, or the awareness at this stage. 

6. Strength - He's pretty weak and while he does have a strong core, he just doesn't have much weight on him, and as he will tell it. He came into college at 189, soaking wet. While he doesn't have a big base so expecting him to get to 250 is next to impossible, he does have broad shoulders so he should be able to get to 230 or 235. I believe this is fixable. 

Siakam 

Strengths: 

1. Motor: Elite Motor

2. Athleticism - He's a speedy, fluid, and agile big man who can move like a wing. 

3. Rebounding - While JC has better-rebounding instincts, Siakam has the traits and he's fundamentally sound as he will box out. 

4. Traits - He has elite traits for defense and it's odd, he wasn't picked higher because even if he doubt his offense, his defense was easily up there with the best in the draft. 

5. Lateral Quickness - This is where I think teams missed. DX explains: 

We didn't get to see much of Siakam's individual defensive skills because he spent much of his time sitting back in a zone defense during the regular season, but he did show some promise in the times spent in man defense. He certainly possesses most of the physical tools needed to guard the perimeter although his frame will once again be a question mark, and will need improving to hold his position on dribble penetration. He'll have to prove that he can be a fundamental team defender who is able to move his feet and switch onto multiple positions on the perimeter, a necessary skill for all power forwards and something we don't have a large sample size of against strong offensive players. - Source: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/pascal-siakam-87577/ ©DraftExpress

When he was in man defense, we saw some of his excellent lateral quickness for his size. I was a small sample but teams should have investigated more. 

6. Shot blocking - He flew around the floor to block 2.6 shots per 40 minutes pace adjusted as a sophomore by rotating over to the front of the rim from his position in the zone or flying at shooters on the perimeter. - Source: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/pascal-siakam-87577/ ©DraftExpress

7. Team defender - He already showed excellent team defensive abilities earning comps to Dennis Rodman from multiple scouts. 

Weaknesses: 

1. Paint Protection - He really didn't show much paint protection in college like many 4s. Really doesn't show any ability to be a 5. 

2. Experience in man defense - Such a small sample to draw from. I honestly think it lowered his stock. 

3. Competition - 295 SOS, 27 out of 31 conference rank. This was a league closer to the top-tier D2 leagues than it was to the best mid-major conferences. It was hard to buy his competition and this was probably one of the weakest eras of college basketball. It's not like today where talent is everywhere and COVID got a bunch of super seniors running around.           

Siakam did not really have many weaknesses defensive in college. His metrics were excellent. His impact was excellent. The question is, is this even real? It was clear, it's real. So real, he started opening night for the Raptors as a rookie. 

Readiness

JC: 7

Gueye: 6.5

Siakam: 7

Skill-set

JC: Rim rolling big, tremendous finisher in the post, tremendous offensive motor, who's a decent rim protector. Great rebounder who has the rare catching ability and catch radius for a Basketball player.

Gueye: Playmaking big, who's extremely traitsy and toolsy, with a nice shooting touch and an explosive big. Excellent all-around athlete with decent offensive fluidity. 

Siakam: High motor big who has tremendous speed, agility, and fluidity like a wing. A solid finisher who has a nice shooting motion, and a tremendous team defender who has exceptional defensive traits. 

Notes for Mo who goes by Mudboy! 

For Gueye to get to their level, man, it's gonna take a lot of work. That said, offensively, he could be superior to both if the progress continues and if he's willing to work and Atlanta is willing to teach, watch out, sooner than later. 

[NBASupes]

Unless someone replies, this is my last post on this thread till after the summer league ends. 

Questions

Where should have each one of these guys went in the draft knowing what you know now? 

It's easy to look in hindsight and say where guys should go but based on my notes, here's where they should all go and why? 

JC was drafted 19th and expected to go 10-14 range. 

DX was higher on him than nbadraft.net

11th - DX

16th - ESPN

Pelton - 11th

https://www.nbadraft.net/ranking/bigboard/?year-ranking=2017

He was drafted right where he should have been picked. 

Why? 

Prototype. His best position is PF where defense is 70/30 and his position in college was Center where it's 60/40 but he didn't have the measurements or tools to play center full-time in the NBA on defense. That said, he was elite on offense in college as a 5. 

As a rim-rolling big, a tremendous finisher in the post has a tremendous offensive motor and is a decent rim protector. Great rebounder who has the rare catching ability and catch radius for a Basketball player.

Players who better value who was drafted after was

Jarrett Allen - Who was a talented but underwhelming center who really had to grow into his body. Prototype: Rim running big who was a decent finisher with excellent tools and measurements. Just lacking strength and weight. 

O.G. Anunoby who was coming off of a serious injury dropped his stock. He was a clear top-10 pick before the injury. Prototype - Two way wing with the ideal weight, athletic ability and length but questionable shot. 

Kyle Kuzma who was fast raising in the process late like Podz. Came in as a potential 2nd rounder and moved into the late 1st round. Tweener big who moves like a wing. Questionable defensively. Lateral quickness is meh. 

Derrick White - Late bloomer who was still vastly developing and developed a lot in SA under Pop. Like Kuzma, White was a fast raiser in the interview and workout process. 

Josh Hart who was an excellent player who didn't have the tools or athletic ability but had the feel and BBIQ developed into a nice rotation starter. - Like Jalen Brunson, didn't fit the physical and athletic reqs for his position but his feel and BBIQ was high enough to overcome. Sometimes it is, sometimes see Denzel Valentine, it's not. It seems like many Nova guys have just enough. 

I definitely felt teams in that 12-20 range started reaching for guys on potential or prototypes and completely missed. 

12 Luke Kennard - Kennard was in this range but this felt like a reach for a Redick type. 

13 Donovan Mitchell - Mitchell was rasing in the process and was actually in the same range with JC. Obviously, he hit. 

14 Bam Adebayo - Bam was a massive reach. He wasn't really productive in college. He was fairly inconsistent on both sides of the court but his upside was legit and he showed playmaking skills in HS. Obviously, the reach worked. 

15 Justin Jackson - Extremely productive college player, he looked like a lock to be a solid role player based on his production in college. Didn't translate at all. Flop. I was never high on Jackson. I didn't like his game. Too much bully ball and only 201. 

16 Justin Patton - I felt like this was a reach. Allen should have been the pick even then. 

17 D.J. Wilson - Massive reach at the time because of prototype. He was a 3&D 4 but he wasn't any good in college. He wasn't any good in the NBA either and really didn't get much better. Even in the GLeague, I didn't see NBA player. 

18 TJ Leaf - Leaf was one of those extremely productive players like JC that didn't fit the prototype for 4s but he showed more ability to shoot than JC did in college and that ultimately is the reason he got picked. Sadly, the rest of his game wasn't NBA level and he eventually had to leave the NBA. 

20 Harry Giles - Another reach like Bam but this one never worked. Giles after that 2nd ACL injury just was never the same. 

21  Terrance Ferguson - OKC loves these types of reaches and sometimes it works, sometimes it fails. This one failed. 

 

Gueye 

He was drafted 39th. 

His range was anywhere from 46-71. 

I felt if you take him anywhere between the 24-45 range, makes sense. 

I felt the hot spot was 24-45 and he was drafted in that range. I probably say 35-45 is where i would feel most comfortable. 

He's a hybrid big. I actually liked his offense a lot more than I expected to like it due to his screens, playmaking vision, and the obvious ability to attain skill at a high level fairly quickly. The issue is, he's a 4 in the NBA. Other than the bulk and strength issue, his defensive tape is really bad. While he does have lateral quickness and the optimal tools for the position, he just needs a lot of work on that end. That said, that's not why he's a draft pick in the NBA. It's because he has everything you need as a 4 to be elite. He just needs to develop. Because PF is 70/30 defense, he just doesn't make sense as a 1st round pick with his raw offense not being polished and his defense being bad. That said, finding elite offense at the 4 is next to impossible. Of course, he has a long way to get there but I believe it's possible. 

 

Siakam 

He should have been a top-15 pick, no lie. 

After the top 11 players, Thon Maker is not a top 11 prospect, it was a crapshoot. No reason for him to even not be a top 12-30 pick. Honestly, he could have gone anywhere but based on what I've seen from the others in college. Prince, Valentine, Caris L, and D. Murray, you can make a case for but after 11, it should have been Siakam. I think people just didn't trust his comp and probably didn't send that many scouts to see him. He likely got missed. 

If Siakam was in JC draft, he should be in JC tier. In fact, I think you could make a case for him with Indy or MIL or even Atlanta from 17-19. 

If in Gueye's class. I think he would be a lottery pick but it's unfair because we already know what the Siakam prototype looks like and everyone is looking for that from PFs. 

[AHF]

Supes - When you are talking about where people should have been picked are you saying this is where they should go based on what was known at the time  (so someone like Manu Ginobili still goes late) or are you saying this is where you think they should go in a redraft where we know how everyone's career turned out (so Manu is now a lottery pick)?  I feel like I'm seeing some of both of these approaches in your post (like talking about how people actually worked out for a redraft perspective and talking about their college tape for a "based on what they knew then" perspective). 

If not clear, I'll use Bam as an example.  We know how he turned out so he would obviously be a lottery pick in a redraft and almost certainly go higher than he actually did in a redraft.  But from a "what we knew then" perspetive, you note he was a "massive" reach so under that perspective he should actually go later than he did.

Thanks.

[NBASupes]

43 minutes ago, AHF said:

Supes - When you are talking about where people should have been picked are you saying this is where they should go based on what was known at the time  (so someone like Manu Ginobili still goes late) or are you saying this is where you think they should go in a redraft where we know how everyone's career turned out (so Manu is now a lottery pick)?  I feel like I'm seeing some of both of these approaches in your post (like talking about how people actually worked out for a redraft perspective and talking about their college tape for a "based on what they knew then" perspective). 

If not clear, I'll use Bam as an example.  We know how he turned out so he would obviously be a lottery pick in a redraft and almost certainly go higher than he actually did in a redraft.  But from a "what we knew then" perspetive, you note he was a "massive" reach so under that perspective he should actually go later than he did.

Thanks.

Where they were at that time. No way you can watch Siakam college tape or even a college workout and see what he became by his Soph year in the NBA. No way possible. It just didn't exist. Just like JC being an elite movement big, it didn't exist till he entered the NBA and played.

Bam had really good workouts but his college tape was bad. He was limited. He was a reach but he had the tools, work ethic, Intangibles. He had the traits. Just didn't have the production. That said, it paid off. Miami won that selection by a mile. 

Edited June 28, 2023 by NBASupes

[AHF]

Do you have a thought about where they should go in a redraft?  (At least for Siakam and Collins)

[NBASupes]

Just now, AHF said:

Do you have a thought about where they should go in a redraft?  (At least for Siakam and Collins)

Each would be top 10. Siakam, top 3 likely. For Gueye, only time will reveal. 

Siakam

1. J. Murray

2. J. Brown

3. Siakam

4. Ingram

5. Simmons who is quickly falling

 

JC

https://tankathon.com/past_drafts/2017

11 or 12 with Lonzo Ball

 

[benhillboy]

@NBASupes you really do this shit lol.  I couldn’t possibly evaluate college and NBA players this deeply.  I really appreciate the work and putting your rep on the line with projections.

3 random questions:

1. Can Anfernee Simons improve his overall defense to at least neutral level (with the right teammates and coach of course, certainly not Billups) and be a slick stud?  I saw a willingness to defend and some edginess in the absence of actual know-how as a rookie a la Booker’s early years but again, Portland ain’t a place where defense is important.

2. Can Giddey ever get his shot together and how good would he be if so?  The .723 FT shooting says no, while the .445 from 10-16 feet and .356 from corner three says maybe.

3. What was your evaluation of Chris Boucher and how has it translated to the league?  Love that dude.  He’ll appear on the court out of thin air (literally), put up 14/5/2/2/1 with no turns in the limited minutes he’s given then disappear back into thin air like a ghost

Edited June 28, 2023 by benhillboy

[KB21]

Interesting thread.  I’ll tell you the biggest reason Pascal wasn’t looked at as a better prospect coming out.  There is a significant age bias when it comes to the draft.  The younger you are, the more potential you have is the perception that draft tendencies show. 
 

Pascal was 22 though, and even though he was raw, the general opinion by many in the NBA is that the older you are, the less potential you have.  
 

The other thing is, he didn’t have high school pedigree.  What gets a Cam Reddish drafted in the top 10 works against a guy like Siakam, who was an “overaged” prospect with little basketball experience.  
 

Also, very few NBA teams are actually good at identifying traits that can be cultivated once in the NBA, and even fewer teams know how to develop players.  
 

So, yes.  He absolutely should have been a higher pick.  

[NBASupes]

2 hours ago, benhillboy said:

@NBASupes you really do this shit lol.  I couldn’t possibly evaluate college and NBA players this deeply.  I really appreciate the work and putting your rep on the line with projections.

3 random questions:

1. Can Anfernee Simons improve his overall defense to at least neutral level (with the right teammates and coach of course, certainly not Billups) and be a slick stud?  I saw a willingness to defend and some edginess in the absence of actual know-how as a rookie a la Booker’s early years but again, Portland ain’t a place where defense is important.

2. Can Giddey ever get his shot together and how good would he be if so?  The .723 FT shooting says no, while the .445 from 10-16 feet and .356 from corner three says maybe.

3. What was your evaluation of Chris Boucher and how has it translated to the league?  Love that dude.  He’ll appear on the court out of thin air (literally), put up 14/5/2/2/1 with no turns in the limited minutes he’s given then disappear back into thin air like a ghost

Thank you, much appreciated it! 

Simons

I would need time to watch old games for Simons. 

Giddey 

I never been a fan of Giddey form but I love his game. That said, I believe Rubio like improvement is possible but expecting something massive is unlikely. It's hard to say for Giddey, his feel for the game is so amazing but a PG has to have a clean shot, epseiclaly if they aren't exactly burners athletically like Westbrook. 

Boucher

His frame and style of play makes it difficult for him to be more than a 8th man so he's like a more effective Boban at this level. 

I have to find my evaluation on him. 

Edited June 28, 2023 by NBASupes

[NBASupes]

34 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Interesting thread.  I’ll tell you the biggest reason Pascal wasn’t looked at as a better prospect coming out.  There is a significant age bias when it comes to the draft.  The younger you are, the more potential you have is the perception that draft tendencies show. 
 

Pascal was 22 though, and even though he was raw, the general opinion by many in the NBA is that the older you are, the less potential you have.  
 

The other thing is, he didn’t have high school pedigree.  What gets a Cam Reddish drafted in the top 10 works against a guy like Siakam, who was an “overaged” prospect with little basketball experience.  
 

Also, very few NBA teams are actually good at identifying traits that can be cultivated once in the NBA, and even fewer teams know how to develop players.  
 

So, yes.  He absolutely should have been a higher pick.  

Age bias probably played less of a factor than the level of competition bias but I am sure it played a role. That said, his handles was on JC level in college and in his 2nd year, he legit had wing level handles, you can't predict that. Just not realistic. 

NBA teams tend to do that with American prospects like Brunson who don't have the physical requirements but generally give the benefit of doubt to Africans or Caribbean players who have limited experience regardless of age. 

Cam Reddish and Marvin Bagley are interesting case studies. I learned a lot from my failures with these two. Especially Bagley but the HS pedigree does matters. Sometimes it works like with AJ, Beal, and Adebayo. Sometimes it fails like with Cam, Bagley and Bamba. 

They are very good at it. It's just very hard to do. So much is based on the player, the coaching, the scheme fig, etc. It's not 1+1=2

Yep, he was definitely missed on.

Edited June 28, 2023 by NBASupes

[AHF]

The issue with age is that there is an objective, empirical correlation between age and potential so that the general rule is not just in the minds of NBA scouts but is objectively true.  But people can’t be lazy and stop there because variation between individuals is a much bigger deal than the general rule.  That is doubly true when contrasting a fairly polished older player like Shelden Williams against a raw player like Siakam.  So I question the sanity of anyone who doesn’t buy into the general idea that being younger means more potential for improvement as a general rule applicable to large groups but also would fire any scout who simply used that as a crutch to not do their jobs and evaluate the individual.  You draft individuals not demographics.

[AtLaS]

Incredible write up Supes, just wanted to drop in and give you kudos for that because of the effort.  

I don't know a ton about Gueye other than watching highlight videos but I love his potential, and love that we took a flyer on him in the 2nd round.  Very much is going to depend on his work ethic and how much he wants to be a great player.  Let's hope he has that fire.

[JeffS17]

On 6/26/2023 at 2:17 AM, NBASupes said:

https://tankathon.com/players/compare?players=mouhamed-gueye--pascal-siakam--john-collins

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/John-Collins-76415/

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/pascal-siakam-87577/

 

https://www.nbadraft.net/players/john-collins/

https://www.barstoolsports.com/blog/781542/nba-draft-scouting-report-john-collins-strengths-weaknesses-and-comparison

Topics:

Offense

Defense 

Readiness

Skill-set

What did JC and Siakam do to improve and what does Gueye need to do - Each Section 

 

Grades: 

10 - NBA Stud

9 - Pro level

8 - Got a few strengths

7 - Fairly Limited

6 - Not ready for the pros at all

5 - Terrible 

Offense: 

JC: 8.5

Gueye: 8

Siakam: 7

All three of these guys had impressive offensive tape. None of these guys were Oscar Tsweibwe. Just straight up using size and instincts to score along in college which doesn't translate to the NBA. 

JC

JC was the best. He probably had the smallest post bag of the three but if you have two pitches and they are special, it's going to be better than if you have four and they are decent or five they are average at best. 

JC was so unique in college. His post-game while not diverse was extremely effective as we have seen in the NBA. He's so active and explosive. Still the best catch radius and hands of any big I've seen. Even better than Shawn Kemp. He wasn't afraid to put the ball down to get to a spot and he was so explosive, no one could jump with him. Just impossible to stop at this level and he has tremendous rebounding instincts.

I actually think his rebounding instincts are much better than Siakam's at the same stage. JC's post-up synergy is the stuff of legends. He was an extremely polished college post-player. Even though his screens were horrendous at this level and he figured out to flare in the NBA which he became elite at in the NBA, his roll speed was elite even then and it showed the flashes that he could be a good PnR finisher even if it wasn't really a thing at Wake. JC ability to fight for position for the post-up was at a professional level even then. It was special. His motor special. It feels like CJ and Siakam were in their own tiers in terms of motor. 

What I didn't like from JC was he didn't hardly take a shot outside of the paint. He mainly let the main thing be the main thing. Also he was a poor screen setter. I didn't like that at all. He also never created outside of the paint. His passing was horrendous and he was exclusively a finisher.

That said, JC was polished, easily the best of the three in terms of posting up, scoring, and finishing, just impossible to stop at this level. Siakam mainly did most of his work against weaker defenders who were smaller. JC did it against anyone. It didn't matter who. JC's limitations are the reason why he's not a 9 or better but his strengths are pro-level. 

Gueye

Gueye is much better when watching him than reading stat sheets. Wazzu runs their offense through his screens and vision. He's primarily a playmaking 5. Used similarly like the Suns used Ayton years ago when they made the run to the Finals and the 1st place team the year after but they actually give Gueye passing actions as well which is highly advanced compared to the other two players. While I wouldn't say his passing is a plus, his vision and reading are a plus and he understands spacing which also is a plus. His assist rate is 14% which is excellent and especially important since he's critical to their system. He can run all types of big playmaking actions. It's his most valuable strength for now.

Gueye is an excellent screener. Even though he's not the biggest (212), he screens like Brandon Clarke where he's always putting a hat on his defender. He gets a ton of screen assists. He's also really good at rolling. Not close to the level of JC but with excellent speed for his size, tremendous hands, and length, he finished with a 1.21PPP for PnR and PnP which is amazing because he has a good number of PnP attempts from 3 in that stat. It's not all just PnR. Unlike Clarke, his frame should give him the ability to get to 230 with maturity. Clarke was already mature when he entered the NBA. Gueye also has tremendous hands, length, footwork, good quickness for his size, elite ability to attain skill, good straight-line speed, and he's very agile but not the most fluid. As fluid as JC but not as fluid as Siakam. 

His ability to attain skill is most impressive. He has the 3rd biggest bag for a 2nd rounder with Emoni Bates at #1 and G.G. Jackson at #2 for the biggest bag (ball skills). After only one season of organized ball, he was doing stepbacks, Dirk's fakes, dribble combos, making difficult contested shots, things that some guys can never do in their life, he picked up in one year and made it look easy. Some guys just got the ability to pick up skill insanely fast and he's one of them. While this isn't the most rare of traits, usually on physical marvels, it is. I think another underrated thing is how well and quickly he attacks space. This is really hard to do in college but the NBA, space is common and his ability isn't. It should show up ASAP when watching summer league. 

Where Gueye struggles or his weakness offensively is, he's not exactly good at anything other than the above.

Shooting - Form looks good, even the pace on his shot but he doesn't exactly make a lot of shots. He has a 33% EFG on C&S. That's in the 12th percentile and it's a data killer. That said, nice shot, soft touch, three-level shooter. He doesn't seem to have a vision or balance issue so usually what this means is experience or reps. The general rule of thumb is 10,000 hours and if you started playing at 15, you are just too raw at this stage. He needs a lot more reps. 

Post-Up - 0.87PPP on 32% of his offense at the 59th percentile isn't exactly what you want to see from a NBA big man prospect. Most of them are in the 80s and 90s. Guys like JC are in the 99th. While he has the biggest post bag by a mile of the three, he isn't exactly good at anything in the post other than finishing at the rim 61% FG whereas JC is at a rare 69%. 

Shot Selection - While I didn't think it was awful, he bricked too many shots, and the response, I'm gonna shot it again. Some of his shots, he didn't have a feel for it, it would get blocked, he just didn't have the polish that JC had where you rarely if ever saw that. 

Drawing fouls - While he could draw and-1 fouls and was good at it, he wasn't drawing a ton of post-up fouls. Most of his fouls drawn came from put-backs, slashing, rolling, and driving but due to his lack of polish in the post, no one really was scared of Gueye at all. Also, his weight is an issue at 212, he just is too small at this stage and considering his size and height. 

Siakam 

While he has a 7, I felt he had the most translatable offensive game. 

It's pure elite motor, excellent speed, agility, and fluidity with very good rebounding instincts, not as good as JC but superior to Gueye. Not to mention has the length, strength for the college level, obviously, needs to add more weight for the NBA. 

He wasn't an excellent finisher but for his level 295 SOS, he was excellent for that level and his motor and rebounding skills had him looking like a shade of Rodman at this level. 

He has an elite motor + tools + knows his role = a confident prospect and offensively, he wasn't really anything special. He did show that he wasn't exactly flawed either. 

The biggest thing that stood out about Siakam is he wasn't really flawed. He didn't shoot much but his shot didn't look back. Listen to what Coach Drew from Baylor said about him:

"But this season he moved away from the basket. He was putting the ball on the floor, taking longer jumpers—but still mixing it up down low, too. He's got a more versatile skill set now, which makes him dangerous because it means he can play multiple positions."

Here's a section from the BR on him: 

The guy plays every minute like he's battling for his job. That play at UMKC also spoke to his quickness. He can fly for a big man, and he's really quick off the floor. Combine that with his 7'2 ½" wingspan, and he's able to rebound outside of his area and also gets a lot of deflections on defense. Over NMSU's final 15 games, he had three or more steals four times. 

Offensively, Siakam is at his best scoring around the basket, but he expanded his game this past year by adding a jumper. He made only three of them as a freshman, according to Synergy Sports, and he had much more confidence in his shot as a sophomore. He made 135-of-308 two-point jumpers during 2015-16, according play-by-play data at Hoop-Math.com. 

"The main thing that impressed me on him was the fact that he made the big leap in improvement hitting the 12- to 15-foot jumper," a scout told B/R. "Last year, he was a guy that didn't shoot that shot, and now he's a guy who has a very good-looking jump shot."

Offensively, it's hard to get hyped about him in college, he wasn't asked to do much and didn't show much. But he didn't show many flaws. Now we see this for example Thomas Robinson and the guy flops hard then again, we see this from Siakam and he's a top 25 NBA player now. So it's hard to say. 

What did JC and Siakam do to improve and what does Gueye need to do

JC became an elite flare screen PnR guy and it turned his PnR play into an elite play. 

JC added range. First the mid-range in the NBA and then moved to the 3-point line while under Coach Bud. This helped him add the PnP to his list. 

JC never really added much other than that offensively. Defensively is where he took a massive jump. His best additional outside of what I previous mentioned was his shooting improvement, especially his face-up J. 

Siakam improved everything outside of motor which might have dropped. 

Ball handling is #1. He really didn't put the ball on the deck much in college, in the NBA, he looked different. 

 

Shooting #2, he had range and his shot doesn't just look good, it goes in. 

Passing #3, for someone who didn't even flash much passing, he looked good doing it in the NBA. His vision was impressive as well. 

Attacking Space #4, he was Pippen like at this. Teams now know it so they gameplan heavy for this. I do wonder if he would be as effective at this again if he wasn't the #1 option anymore. 

Siakam is by far the most improved of him and JC on offense. The main reason is, he just doesn't have the flaws JC had. Once he developed his strengths, he had a lot more due to having less flaws. 

I still see flaws though nonetheless. Still a fairly limited post-player. Still isn't much of a screen setter and that impacts the roll heavily. To be frank, he plays like a 3 offensively while being a versatile 4 defensively. He's not as good defensively as he used to be but he's still effective. 

I don't find him to be the ideal 4 and I continue to say that. I like 4s who run PnRs, can shoot, can create with or without the ball, and have high BBIQ. I generally prefer Draymond Green over Siakam. Definitely would take AD over Siakam. Considering JJJ level right now and Siakam level right now as he's not as good as he used to be defensively, I would likely take JJJ as well. 

As for a Gueye. He's superior to college Siakam. It's not even close and he's close to college JC but college JC is a tier better. He just needs to become polished but he's far more capable offensively than Siakam. If he can improve like Siakam, he could be generational. That said, defense is way more valuable than offense for 4s and Siakam has a large edge. That said, Gueye could become elite on offense. Something Siakam just doesn't have in him but Gueye will have to substantially improve. 

 

Defense 

JC: 6

Gueye: 5.5

Siakam: 8.5

To be continued - Tomorrow 6/26/2023

Gueye is an interesting project for the new coaching staff.  I've watched very limited footage but did read through your analysis.  Do you think he has potential to be a solid bench piece in a couple years?  It feels like his defense needs a lot of work and that's primarily what you're going to want from a backup 4/5.

 

[NBASupes]

1 minute ago, JeffS17 said:

Gueye is an interesting project for the new coaching staff.  I've watched very limited footage but did read through your analysis.  Do you think he has potential to be a solid bench piece in a couple years?  It feels like his defense needs a lot of work and that's primarily what you're going to want from a backup 4/5.

 

It just depends on his development arc. If he has a slow arc and all he gets is polish, I think in year 3 or 4 is when you can rely on him as a formidable offensive 4 with some on ball defense chops and the ability to switch decently. 

If he has an extremely fast arc like what we had with players under Bud, by year 2, he could be someone scoring 20ppg with similar defense to his year 4 slow defensive arc of some on ball defense chops and the ability to switch decently. 

His offense is very impressive when you watch the tape. He's already good at the stuff coaches will care about far more than fans. He has to get better at the production piece of offense which is a clear work in progress. 

He offense is good enough to get him some minutes now but his defense will instantly lose him those minutes. 

It just depends what you want from your backup 4. Some people want defense, some want offense. He's more favorable to those who want offense. 

[benhillboy]

Last non-Hawks question @NBASupes

Is Lively an NBA-ready defensive C like Kessler and how does he fit beside Chet?  Frankly I’m much more intrigued to see Chet than Wemby because OKC’s youth program is already firmly in place.

Edited June 30, 2023 by benhillboy

[NBASupes]

Just now, benhillboy said:

Last non-Hawks question @NBASupes

Is Lively an NBA-ready defensive C like Kessler and how does he fit beside Chet?

Yes for this era

Interesting pairing. Not sure. I would really have to think about that.

[sillent]

On 6/26/2023 at 2:50 AM, NBASupes said:

I'll add defense tomorrow but before I continue, I want to say, what the hell was BudCox doing drafting Bembry ahead of Siakam and they worked him out too. 

I get it, I am Capt. Hindsight right now. But Siakam's defense is real. You can see it in workouts. His jumper doesn't look broken, unlike Bembry. His speed and motor were Bazemore-like. How do you pass on him for Bembry? I just got done evaluating these three and I can see how someone can pass on JC or Gueye. But Siakam plays defense exactly how we were playing defense at the time. He had the length and ability. How? Seriously, HOW? 

I'll talk about Siakam's defense tomorrow. His biggest draft issue was just not enough film playing man defense since NM State is a massively large team, Siakam plays PF and his center is usually very big and not mobile so they have to stay in a zone. That said, when Siakam played man, it was legit ya'll. Even with mistakes, he easily erased them. Offensively, he was limited but he showed a promising jump shot. We just flat-out missed on him and it's insane. Siakam should have been drafted by the Hawks. 

Fit/need is my guess. We didn't want to tarnish Paul Millsaps ego possibly as he was the current "star" of our team.

[NBASupes]

56 minutes ago, sillent said:

Fit/need is my guess. We didn't want to tarnish Paul Millsaps ego possibly as he was the current "star" of our team.

We literally drafted his (hopeful) replacement with Adriean Payne. RIP