Hawks looking to trade

[AHF]

10 minutes ago, Mikey said:

The bidding is going how the hawks want/need. Knicks appear to be ready to up their offer to accelerate this process. I still think they are the favorite by far but other suitors made it interesting. The reality of even getting back 1-2 of those picks from the spurs really changes things. I don't think the spurs are a serious suitor but its enough to slow the process rather than have made a deal on Tuesday.

Let's assume that the trade nets us two first round picks.  

Let's say they are the following:

Dallas 2024 Pick (top 12 protected) or New York 2024 (top ?? protected)

and

Milwaukee 2025 Pick (top 4 protected)

 

How does this move the needle for  us?  Do you really think that will get us a good player if we flip them?  I wouldn't give up more than role players for those picks.  Dallas and New York's picks right now are projected around #20.  The Bucks pick would be like #29.  

Any deal that primarily revolves around that kind of value seems like a low key means of trying to get rid of Trae.  "Hey Trae - don't worry about not having Dejounte playing with you.  Here is a role player defender to backup Bogi and a couple picks that if they work out could get you another role player! 

Nobody is going to give up great players for those kinds of picks and if we give up Dejounte for them we are morons.

[GameTime]

10 minutes ago, Mikey said:

The bidding is going how the hawks want/need. Knicks appear to be ready to up their offer to accelerate this process. I still think they are the favorite by far but other suitors made it interesting. The reality of even getting back 1-2 of those picks from the spurs really changes things. I don't think the spurs are a serious suitor but its enough to slow the process rather than have made a deal on Tuesday.

Not sure how much they can up their offer if we aren't talking mutliple 1sts unprotected or Randle/Hartenstein.

Grimes is playing 15 mins and Fournier is DNP on their team right now, so why should we value them more?

[Peoriabird]

16 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

You see that @Peoriabird?

12 is going to be the leader of the Hawks in 2 years.  Or maybe as soon as the summer of 2025.

More games? Are we ever going to get serious about analyzing this team or have everyone just given up and rather participate in pettiness?

[Sothron]

GSW has now entered the DJM sweepstakes. Variety of offers, names I'm hearing are Kuminga and Wiggins. 

[JTB]

3 minutes ago, Sothron said:

GSW has now entered the DJM sweepstakes. Variety of offers, names I'm hearing are Kuminga and Wiggins. 

That’s the one we need right there !…Wiggins! 
 

Wiggins and a first rd pick for Murray and filler

[TheNorthCydeRises]

10 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

More games? Are we ever going to get serious about analyzing this team or have everyone just given up and rather participate in pettiness?

I've told you my plan.

Trade 12 for a more active, versatile player

or

Move him to the 2, so that he can concentrate more on scoring, and not have to do everything else.

 

I'm definitely not in the camp of just acquiring picks and role players.  I want significant talent here, to see what this team can really do.

Our problem is that our frontcourt just isn't good enough right now.  We need to significantly upgrade the frontcourt.

8 minutes ago, Sothron said:

GSW has now entered the DJM sweepstakes. Variety of offers, names I'm hearing are Kuminga and Wiggins. 

Send them both.

[Mikey]

36 minutes ago, AHF said:

Let's assume that the trade nets us two first round picks.  

Let's say they are the following:

Dallas 2024 Pick (top 12 protected) or New York 2024 (top ?? protected)

and

Milwaukee 2025 Pick (top 4 protected)

 

How does this move the needle for  us?  Do you really think that will get us a good player if we flip them?  I wouldn't give up more than role players for those picks.  Dallas and New York's picks right now are projected around #20.  The Bucks pick would be like #29.  

Any deal that primarily revolves around that kind of value seems like a low key means of trying to get rid of Trae.  "Hey Trae - don't worry about not having Dejounte playing with you.  Here is a role player defender to backup Bogi and a couple picks that if they work out could get you another role player! 

Nobody is going to give up great players for those kinds of picks and if we give up Dejounte for them we are morons.

And nobody is giving you great players for DJM a player that has asked out so what do you want to do nothing? 

33 minutes ago, GameTime said:

Not sure how much they can up their offer if we aren't talking mutliple 1sts unprotected or Randle/Hartenstein.

Grimes is playing 15 mins and Fournier is DNP on their team right now, so why should we value them more?

Up their offer means addition of another pick 

[JeffS17]

40 minutes ago, AHF said:

Let's assume that the trade nets us two first round picks.  

Let's say they are the following:

Dallas 2024 Pick (top 12 protected) or New York 2024 (top ?? protected)

and

Milwaukee 2025 Pick (top 4 protected)

 

How does this move the needle for  us?  Do you really think that will get us a good player if we flip them?  I wouldn't give up more than role players for those picks.  Dallas and New York's picks right now are projected around #20.  The Bucks pick would be like #29.  

Any deal that primarily revolves around that kind of value seems like a low key means of trying to get rid of Trae.  "Hey Trae - don't worry about not having Dejounte playing with you.  Here is a role player defender to backup Bogi and a couple picks that if they work out could get you another role player! 

Nobody is going to give up great players for those kinds of picks and if we give up Dejounte for them we are morons.

I think you're understating how valuable those picks actually are.  You can get actual contributing rotation guys (albeit with limited roles) in the 4-20 range, and they will have cheap salaries locked in for 4 years.  That is very useful for a lot of teams that are hard capped and have no roster flexibility.  I'd argue those picks are much more useful now than in the old CBA where you could still maneuver around in the luxury space with SnTs, MLEs, etc.  Now I'd argue those picks are a lot of teams only shot at getting positive value contracts on their roster.  So I think those picks could absolutely be a needle mover in a consolidation trade involving guys like Hunter/Capela/Bogi, etc.  They could also be very useful grabbing solid role player talent from teams needing to get under the tax or the second apron.

[AHF]

1 minute ago, Mikey said:

And nobody is giving you great players for DJM a player that has asked out so what do you want to do nothing? 

Get good players if you can't get great ones.  There is no reason the fact that DJM has asked out means we shouldn't get a good return.  That is not how leverage works.  We have him on a great contract for years and as the cap rises that deal will just look better and better.  This not a Siakam situation where he walks in a few months and you are left with nothing.  He is still putting up 21, 5 and 5 and doing it on scoring efficiency that is the best of his career.  He has made All-NBA defense when defending point guards so you know he can be better in another situation than he is trying to guard 2's here.  

There is simply no reason we shouldn't get an excellent return for him and every reason not to settle for something mediocre or worse (like Grimes and the #27 pick or something).  If we do that, the chances of Trae sticking around drop off precipitously then we'll be selling  him for fifty cents on the dollar (I don't think it will be a quiet ask out like Murray if we hit that point with  him) and we won't even have our own draft picks as we sink into the lottery and fuel San Antonio's next dynasty.

You cannot sell low on Murray.  Hold and trade him this offseason or next year if you can't get a good offer.  Teams can know you want to move him all day long but as long as there is a valid reason for them to want him you are still in position to get a fair return.

It is when no one wants the player on their contract that your leverage evaporates.  I don't think there is a material risk of DM getting hurt to crush his value, becoming a useless player overnight, or becoming someone viewed as toxically overpaid.  At worst he will be disgruntled and we've seen good return for plenty of disgruntled but talented players.

[JeffS17]

25 minutes ago, Sothron said:

GSW has now entered the DJM sweepstakes. Variety of offers, names I'm hearing are Kuminga and Wiggins. 

Give me GS picks, 2025 and 2027.  Take advantage of their delusion the dynasty isn't over.

[NBASupes]

28 minutes ago, Sothron said:

GSW has now entered the DJM sweepstakes. Variety of offers, names I'm hearing are Kuminga and Wiggins. 

Wiggins is ass and his contract is terrible. Contract year Wiggins is the only Wiggins I like

[AHF]

2 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

I think you're understating how valuable those picks actually are.  You can get actual contributing rotation guys (albeit with limited roles) in the 4-20 range, and they will have cheap salaries locked in for 4 years.  That is very useful for a lot of teams that are hard capped and have no roster flexibility.  I'd argue those picks are much more useful now than in the old CBA where you could still maneuver around in the luxury space with SnTs, MLEs, etc.  Now I'd argue those picks are a lot of teams only shot at getting positive value contracts on their roster.  So I think those picks could absolutely be a needle mover in a consolidation trade involving guys like Hunter/Capela/Bogi, etc.  They could also be very useful grabbing solid role player talent from teams needing to get under the tax or the second apron.

Agree to disagree.  (I'm not saying they don't have value but look at the historical performance of the players picked in that range and it is not enough to land significant players unless they are badly overpaid.)

Let's try this as an exercise.  We own the Sacramento pick that will be in that range.  Let's imagine we also had the Dallas pick.

Name a 20 & 5 player (not 21, 5 & 5 just 20 and 5 of anything) that you think a team would trade for the Sacramento pick and the Dallas pick.  Then let's look at his contract and see if he is under team control at a submarket price for years or not.  

[JeffS17]

Just now, AHF said:

Agree to disagree.  (I'm not saying they don't have value but look at the historical performance of the players picked in that range and it is not enough to land significant players unless they are badly overpaid.)

Let's try this as an exercise.  We own the Sacramento pick that will be in that range.  Let's imagine we also had the Dallas pick.

Name a 20 & 5 player (not 21, 5 & 5 just 20 and 5 of anything) that you think a team would trade for the Sacramento pick and the Dallas pick.  Then let's look at his contract and see if he is under team control at a submarket price for years or not.  

Not going to do your exercise because it's a gross oversimplification of the broader picture.  We'd need to do an analysis on the teams cap situation, as well as what we're sending out.  We could absolutely package Bogi and a top 12 protected pick and get a better player in return.  That would be the use case for getting these picks back -- draft capital to help us upgrade talent where needed.  And yes, Murray is on a good contract, but if we get back a player that is good, still developing, and has a couple years left on their rookie deal, that affords us a ton of flexibility and is valuable itself.

[AHF]

4 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

Give me GS picks, 2025 and 2027.  Take advantage of their delusion the dynasty isn't over.

If we are ditching Trae and rebuilding I legit think this would be a great idea as a way for us to do a rebuild.  Even if we aren't ready to lose Trae because we gave up Murray for garbage getting those picks unprotected would be a ton better than the New York poo-poo platter which offers so very little upside.

GS unprotected picks have a really good (relatively speaking) chance to be game changers unlike the picks we are talking about from New York.

[Mikey]

9 minutes ago, AHF said:

Get good players if you can't get great ones.  There is no reason the fact that DJM has asked out means we shouldn't get a good return.  That is not how leverage works.  We have him on a great contract for years and as the cap rises that deal will just look better and better.  This not a Siakam situation where he walks in a few months and you are left with nothing.  He is still putting up 21, 5 and 5 and doing it on scoring efficiency that is the best of his career.  He has made All-NBA defense when defending point guards so you know he can be better in another situation than he is trying to guard 2's here.  

There is simply no reason we shouldn't get an excellent return for him and every reason not to settle for something mediocre or worse (like Grimes and the #27 pick or something).  If we do that, the chances of Trae sticking around drop off precipitously then we'll be selling  him for fifty cents on the dollar (I don't think it will be a quiet ask out like Murray if we hit that point with  him) and we won't even have our own draft picks as we sink into the lottery and fuel San Antonio's next dynasty.

You cannot sell low on Murray.  Hold and trade him this offseason or next year if you can't get a good offer.  Teams can know you want to move him all day long but as long as there is a valid reason for them to want him you are still in position to get a fair return.

It is when no one wants the player on their contract that your leverage evaporates.  I don't think there is a material risk of DM getting hurt to crush his value, becoming a useless player overnight, or becoming someone viewed as toxically overpaid.  At worst he will be disgruntled and we've seen good return for plenty of disgruntled but talented players.

They aren’t selling low on him. Grimes is also a nice young player that compliments Trae very well… 

them taking offers is exactly sign that they aren’t selling low. Damn near like 6 teams been mentioned to have interest. Without are current picks you know what we need… additional picks. Getting 2 and a fake one for Murray when we sent out 3 would be a great outcome. Murray isn’t a needle mover think your expectations for what he can get is too high. 

[Mikey]

5 minutes ago, AHF said:

If we are ditching Trae and rebuilding I legit think this would be a great idea as a way for us to do a rebuild.  Even if we aren't ready to lose Trae because we gave up Murray for garbage getting those picks unprotected would be a ton better than the New York poo-poo platter which offers so very little upside.

GS unprotected picks have a really good (relatively speaking) chance to be game changers unlike the picks we are talking about from New York.

You realize New York has unprotected picks right lol? 

[AHF]

Just now, JeffS17 said:

Not going to do your exercise because it's a gross oversimplification of the broader picture.  We'd need to do an analysis on the teams cap situation, as well as what we're sending out.  We could absolutely package Bogi and a top 12 protected pick and get a better player in return.  That would be the use case for getting these picks back -- draft capital to help us upgrade talent where needed.  And yes, Murray is on a good contract, but if we get back a player that is good, still developing, and has a couple years left on their rookie deal, that affords us a ton of flexibility and is valuable itself.

No team should be able to acquire a player like Murray on a great contract for picks that are not just projected to be in the 20's but are projected in that range with an extremely high degree of confidence ala the Dallas 2024 pick or the Bucks 2025 pick.  

Bogi > Grimes.  A pick projected at 16 is worth a ton more than one at 26.  Just look at the expected value charts for historical picks.  These are not comparable.

There is no player that has value like Murray that we could ever get in flipping those picks.  It would have to be someone that a team was dumping for salary reasons or a rental like Siakam.  

Murray is average 21, 5 and 5 with an All-Star appearance, an All-NBA defense appearance, is 27 years old, and is on a team friendly contract for years.  DO NOT GIVE HIM AWAY FOR CRAPPY FIRST ROUND PICKS.

No easier way to tank this team for the next decade than doing something like that.  Trae will not stay to watch Kobe Bufkin 2.0 next season with the hopes of getting Kobe Bufkin 3.0 in two years.

[terrell]

Yep GS has entered the chat.. lol

 

[GameTime]

40 minutes ago, Sothron said:

GSW has now entered the DJM sweepstakes. Variety of offers, names I'm hearing are Kuminga and Wiggins. 

Kuminga, Wiggins and unprotected/pick swaps for DJM. Get it done.

[AHF]

Just now, Mikey said:

You realize New York has unprotected picks right lol? 

And I realize that with the talent on their roster being in their prime they won't be near the top of the draft.  If Curry gets injured GS's picks could be at the top  of the lottery.  Curry is 36 years old next season.  Klay is 33 with a history of major injuries.  Green could implode and find himself missing months of time or even an entire season if he punches someone again.  This is a team with real upside to not just be bad but to be terrible.

The Knicks have:

25 year old Hartstein

26 year old Anunoby

27 year old Murray (in this scenario)

27 year old Brunson

29 year old Randle

 

That team may not be title contenders but they will be in the playoffs the next few years.

 

You have to see the difference between the upside scenarios with these picks right?  Come on.