Hawks looking to trade

[kg01]

16 minutes ago, ABH said:

Don't need to trade him but we prolly will..like to make some other moves first if possible 

Capela

11 minutes ago, Mikey said:

I seriously question how much value you guys think DJM is worth. In what world is 3 assets in grimes and two firsts a bad package. You are not getting a better player than Murray back in a Murray deal. They aren't trying to win this season...stop trying to make trades with that objective in mind

Bwhy you can't just let us down easy, mik?  Just snatchin' that band-aid off, huh? 

[deester11]

17 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

You ARE the Simpson baby I don’t even have to look at the poster when it’s Homer it’s you dawg!

Straight up wrong. Or right depending on the circumstances.  

[Final_quest]

17 minutes ago, Mikey said:

I seriously question how much value you guys think DJM is worth. In what world is 3 assets in grimes and two firsts a bad package. You are not getting a better player than Murray back in a Murray deal. They aren't trying to win this season...stop trying to make trades with that objective in mind

Depends on the quality of those picks, and the underrated risk in a deal like this is with Grimes having us by the balls when it comes time to negotiate his contract. 

Trying to get in the head of an NBA GM, Murray is the best available piece on the market in a market where multiple teams are trying to get to the next level.  How are offers like Dlo and a first the best out there?  He's signed long term to a really reasonable deal.  Why isn't he valuable?

[JayBirdHawk]

I have an admission to make:

Spoiler

I've been on The Squawk along time. This is the first time I'm 'Team Negative' - I have no faith in the FO and I have no trust in Messy Ressy.

Carry on  

[JayBirdHawk]

30 minutes ago, Mikey said:

I seriously question how much value you guys think DJM is worth. In what world is 3 assets in grimes and two firsts a bad package. You are not getting a better player than Murray back in a Murray deal. They aren't trying to win this season...stop trying to make trades with that objective in mind

Depends on the 1sts, and the protections doesn't it. If it's the Detroit and Wiz 1sts that's AWFUL! 

Then also how much Grimes wants on his next deal.

 

[NBASupes]

28 minutes ago, Mikey said:

I seriously question how much value you guys think DJM is worth. In what world is 3 assets in grimes and two firsts a bad package. You are not getting a better player than Murray back in a Murray deal. They aren't trying to win this season...stop trying to make trades with that objective in mind

It's horrible. Grimes wants Murray money. He's not under a good contract and he's not even a top 100 player. Plus the picks from the Knicks with protections. Kevin netted us a lot more value. 

[Packfill]

5 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

Depends on the quality of those picks, and the underrated risk in a deal like this is with Grimes having us by the balls when it comes time to negotiate his contract. 

Trying to get in the head of an NBA GM, Murray is the best available piece on the market in a market where multiple teams are trying to get to the next level.  How are offers like Dlo and a first the best out there?  He's signed long term to a really reasonable deal.  Why isn't he valuable?

If the Hawks are not getting better offers than that is a reflection of his value - and unfortunately if this is the state of play no other teams value him like the Hawks did a year ago.  

His matador defense is not helping matters to be sure.

[NBASupes]

3 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Depends on the 1sts, and the protections doesn't it. If it's the Detroit and Wiz 1sts that's AWFUL! 

This boy talking like it's the Spurs 1sts unprotected. But it's future two 2nd rounders. I really want Landry to stop pissing on this base and pull Murray off the market till teams get serious with offers. 

[JayBirdHawk]

3 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

It's horrible. Grimes wants Murray money. He's not under a good contract and he's not even a top 100 player. Plus the picks from the Knicks with protections. Kevin netted us a lot more value. 

Whaaaat??? Murray money? How?

This is like Bey wanting Hunter money. 

[NBASupes]

1 minute ago, Packfill said:

If the Hawks are not getting better offers than that is a reflection of his value - and unfortunately if this is the state of play no other teams value him like the Hawks did a year ago.  

His matador defense is not helping matters to be sure.

If no one values him, pull him off the market. It's that simple. Obviously teams do, just want him on an extreme discount and he's under a good contract. Raptors were offered Dre and AJ and Atlanta refused to offer Bufkin. Raptors saw it as a joke and moved on. We need to do the same. 

[Spud2nique]

Just watching the Chuckster on inside and he says.. OG Anoby? I was thinking it was OG Shinobi  

Please hear this, none of y’all would ever stand a chance against me on OG Shinonobi..

 

Thats all I got for now..

ps Screw the Knicks Lakers and others who come with weak offers.

[AHF]

42 minutes ago, Mikey said:

I seriously question how much value you guys think DJM is worth. In what world is 3 assets in grimes and two firsts a bad package. You are not getting a better player than Murray back in a Murray deal. They aren't trying to win this season...stop trying to make trades with that objective in mind

First, if we don't get improvement in the next 1.5 seasons Trae is gone.  So we must get better.  A 2026 or 2027 pick is worthless  unless we can quickly flip it for on the court support or unless we are willing to lose Trae.  Agreed?  

Second, let's be serious and look at the value in this offer.

Grimes is a role player who averages 6.9 points, 1.7 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.7 steals, and 0.1 blocks a game.  He has a 9.0 PER, a 0.78 WS/48, a -1.5 BPM, and a 0.1 VORP (YTD).  That has value but not a ton of value.

So let's look at some hypothetical picks and their value.

New York 2024 Pick: The New York 2024 draft pick isn't worth much.  The Knicks are currently projected to have the #22 pick.  That should get worse if Dejounte Murray improves their team but let's go off of that.  An April 2023 study projects that a #22 pick is expected to return a career total of 18.1 Win Shares.   https://quantimschmitz.com/2023/04/02/how-valuable-is-each-nba-draft-pick/ Who are some former Hawks who finished their career with around 18 win shares for perspective? 

Jason Collins put up 20.1 win shares. 

Evan Turner finished with 20.2 Win Shares. 

Mike Muscala has 19.0 Win Shares career to date. 

This is the type of expected value for this pick.  That has value but if you are counting on landing on an outlier you are betting against probabilities.

Who is this other super valuable pick that makes up for the limited value to date?  The Milwaukee 2025 first round pick (top 4 protected)?  Does anyone want to bet a Giannis led team ends up in the middle of the lottery?  How about New York?  Their core is all in their 20's.  Does anyone want to bet on them falling apart with Dejounte added to their fold?  Dumb bet from my perspective.  

Dallas 2024 Pick: How about the Dallas 2024 pick?  They are currently projected as the #18 pick.  How much is that worth?  An expected career production of 21.5 Win Shares.  https://quantimschmitz.com/2023/04/02/how-valuable-is-each-nba-draft-pick/  What kind of players fit that bill?  Well, the three players above aren't far off but let's be generous and extend that out a bit to be more optimistic.  Former Hawk Tiago Splitter finished his short career with just over 25 career win shares.  That is significantly higher than the average return for the #18 pick but still does not do much for what the Hawks need to do over the next 18 months.  Anthony Morrow finished with 23 career win shares.  Dewayne Dedmon put up 23.3 WS.  That is above average but not too far off.  For perspective, bear in mind that guys like former Hawks Jose Calderon and Mike Dunleavy absolutely **** on a 21 win share projection with their career >50 win share production let alone guys like Kris Humphries with his >30 win share production.  

I can't emphasize this enough.  You are living in a fantasy world if you think that draft picks in this range have historically translated into impact players - especially during their first two seasons.  We need help in the near term to keep Trae and not go into a full rebuild.  Picks like the NY 2024 first round pick don't cut it.

Does anyone think we retain Trae if we trade DM for:

Quenton Grimes - 6.9 points, 1.7 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.7 steals, and 0.1 blocks a game

2024 Dallas Pick - #18 - Rookie Anthony Morrow (or Dewayne Dedmon or Evan Turner or Tiago Splitter)

2024-25 Rookie Mike Muscala (or Jason Collins)

That is ABOVE AVERAGE return on those draft picks.  Of course actual results will vary significantly depending on who is picked but you must be intelligent about your risk profile and your objectives.

Taking on these kinds of picks for an asset like Dejounte Murray is the equivalent of just throwing away the Trae Young era and throwing him in the trash.

 

[HawksNWaffles]

2 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

Just watching the Chuckster on inside and he says.. OG Anoby? I was thinking it was OG Shinobi  

Please hear this, none of y’all would ever stand a chance against me on OG Shinonobi..

 

Thats all I got for now..

ps Screw the Knicks Lakers and others who come with weak offers.

[Mikey]

14 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

It's horrible. Grimes wants Murray money. He's not under a good contract and he's not even a top 100 player. Plus the picks from the Knicks with protections. Kevin netted us a lot more value. 

Grimes who barely plays want 4/120. Come on that doesn't even make any sense LOL. He's gonna fit right in and be an excellent role player this team needed, Good defender and can knock down shots. All the good teams buy low on players like this and have role players like this. He won't even sniff 100 mill and thinking otherwise is blasphemous.

[Mikey]

21 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Depends on the 1sts, and the protections doesn't it. If it's the Detroit and Wiz 1sts that's AWFUL! 

Then also how much Grimes wants on his next deal.

 

the firsts in this hypothetical deal would be in years they don't have picks currently most likely. and like I said last I year this wasn't the deal. They revisited the deal with a player instead of 1 of the picks

[JayBirdHawk]

4 minutes ago, Mikey said:

the firsts in this hypothetical deal would be in years they don't have picks currently most likely. and like I said last I year this wasn't the deal. They revisited the deal with a player instead of 1 of the picks

Then it would have to be unprotected Knicks 1sts.

[Mikey]

10 minutes ago, AHF said:

First, if we don't get improvement in the next 1.5 seasons Trae is gone.  So we must get better.  A 2026 or 2027 pick is worthless  unless we can quickly flip it for on the court support or unless we are willing to lose Trae.  Agreed?  

Second, let's be serious and look at the value in this offer.

Grimes is a role player who averages 6.9 points, 1.7 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.7 steals, and 0.1 blocks a game.  He has a 9.0 PER, a 0.78 WS/48, a -1.5 BPM, and a 0.1 VORP (YTD).  That has value but not a ton of value.

So let's look at some hypothetical picks and their value.

New York 2024 Pick: The New York 2024 draft pick isn't worth much.  The Knicks are currently projected to have the #22 pick.  That should get worse if Dejounte Murray improves their team but let's go off of that.  An April 2023 study projects that a #22 pick is expected to return a career total of 18.1 Win Shares.   https://quantimschmitz.com/2023/04/02/how-valuable-is-each-nba-draft-pick/ Who are some former Hawks who finished their career with around 18 win shares for perspective? 

Jason Collins put up 20.1 win shares. 

Evan Turner finished with 20.2 Win Shares. 

Mike Muscala has 19.0 Win Shares career to date. 

This is the type of expected value for this pick.  That has value but if you are counting on landing on an outlier you are betting against probabilities.

Who is this other super valuable pick that makes up for the limited value to date?  The Milwaukee 2025 first round pick (top 4 protected)?  Does anyone want to bet a Giannis led team ends up in the middle of the lottery?  How about New York?  Their core is all in their 20's.  Does anyone want to bet on them falling apart with Dejounte added to their fold?  Dumb bet from my perspective.  

Dallas 2024 Pick: How about the Dallas 2024 pick?  They are currently projected as the #18 pick.  How much is that worth?  An expected career production of 21.5 Win Shares.  https://quantimschmitz.com/2023/04/02/how-valuable-is-each-nba-draft-pick/  What kind of players fit that bill?  Well, the three players above aren't far off but let's be generous and extend that out a bit to be more optimistic.  Former Hawk Tiago Splitter finished his short career with just over 25 career win shares.  That is significantly higher than the average return for the #18 pick but still does not do much for what the Hawks need to do over the next 18 months.  Anthony Morrow finished with 23 career win shares.  Dewayne Dedmon put up 23.3 WS.  That is above average but not too far off.  For perspective, bear in mind that guys like former Hawks Jose Calderon and Mike Dunleavy absolutely **** on a 21 win share projection with their career >50 win share production let alone guys like Kris Humphries with his >30 win share production.  

I can't emphasize this enough.  You are living in a fantasy world if you think that draft picks in this range have historically translated into impact players - especially during their first two seasons.  We need help in the near term to keep Trae and not go into a full rebuild.  Picks like the NY 2024 first round pick don't cut it.

Does anyone think we retain Trae if we trade DM for:

Quenton Grimes - 6.9 points, 1.7 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.7 steals, and 0.1 blocks a game

2024 Dallas Pick - #18 - Rookie Anthony Morrow (or Dewayne Dedmon or Evan Turner or Tiago Splitter)

2024-25 Rookie Mike Muscala (or Jason Collins)

That is ABOVE AVERAGE return on those draft picks.  Of course actual results will vary significantly depending on who is picked but you must be intelligent about your risk profile and your objectives.

Taking on these kinds of picks for an asset like Dejounte Murray is the equivalent of just throwing away the Trae Young era and throwing him in the trash.

 

You or I have no idea what the picks are and what the players become. Taking a worst case scenario approach that they can't hit the pick or get the worst ones makes no sense to me. Evaluating grimes for a player he is in New York when its a different situation and role he'd play here makes no sense (imagine the celtics said we don't want derrick white cause he's not great in his role in San antonio). Good teams buy low...

Hawks granted it was Schlenk absolutely nailed the picks 18-20 with Huerter, JC, and Jalen but yeah Im sure we are guaranteed Anthony morrow or Mike Muscala. They overpaid for a barely top 60 player and now they gonna get slightly less than the actual market value for this player. Thats what happens when you put your chips and bet wrong. and like I said in previous quote the deal I heard is a different player for 1 less pick with clint in the deal. Clint has zero value. Absolutely zero. They will get off him in a deal with DJM if they want

[JayBirdHawk]

5 minutes ago, Mikey said:

the firsts in this hypothetical deal would be in years they don't have picks currently most likely. and like I said last I year this wasn't the deal. They revisited the deal with a player instead of 1 of the picks

If it included Clint it also means that Robinson would be included to make the money work.

[NBASupes]

9 minutes ago, Mikey said:

Grimes who barely plays want 4/120. Come on that doesn't even make any sense LOL. He's gonna fit right in and be an excellent role player this team needed, Good defender and can knock down shots. All the good teams buy low on players like this and have role players like this. He won't even sniff 100 mill and thinking otherwise is blasphemous.

You are even close to getting it. We don't need anymore players who want to be paid way more than its worth. If he wants to play in NY, he would have signed a 4/40 deal and NY wouldn't be shopping him. They are shopping him because he's delusional like Bey. 

[JayBirdHawk]

1 minute ago, Mikey said:

Clint has zero value. Absolutely zero. They will get off him in a deal with DJM if they want

So we are devaluing the Murray return we can get by including Clint's money.