Zach Edey Conundrum - Could Edey be the next great Atlanta Hawk or is he the next Cam Reddish

NBASupes · February 14

Zach Edey Conumdum

I usually don't do threads on a specific college kid outside of Zion Williamson that aren't Hawks. But this kid is different. What if I told you this kid's 22 years old. He's elite around the rim, he can rebound at an elite level, he has good agility for his size who is 7'4 300 pounds and he can protect the paint and the rim at a decent level and he's completely disciplined on D. This is the story of the likely two time CPOY, Zach Edey.

Zach Edey scores a lot of points, and he does so with ridiculous efficiency. His 45.1 points per 100 possessions number is outrageous, topping what the likes of Trae Young and Zion Williamson did during their pre-draft seasons. Most of his work is done inside. Per Synergy, he’s converting 75.4% of his shots around the basket in the halfcourt, a strong mark for a center prospect.

The issue is he's the most polarizing prospect in the NBA. My impact rates him at 10 wins but if he translates which it's not expecting has him at a per10. If he translates, he's per36 and he compares favorably to Yao Ming. His defensive projection is +0 which isn't good for a modern-day center. Back in the day, this was fine but not anymore. +5 is seen as the min for a center and teams want +10. +15 are hard to find and only Gobert is +20 for the modern NBA. Is he athlete enough, while his improvement agility-wise raised his profile massively, he's still slow for an NBA center and he's of no use in transition. The other negative is transition defense which is already bad for us due to Trae being even worse with Edey and can he play in today's NBA with the pace and the required movements of today's game?

Also, he needs to be your #1 option or play in an offense that spams centers. It's unlikely any team will make him a #1 option so the best fits are Denver and SAC which are run via Jokic and Sabonis so he will feel comfortable. As far as spam centers, that honor goes to the king of spamming 5s, Mr. Trae Young. Because of this, his per36 is more likely than elsewhere. This is massive for these teams and his evaluation should be elevated for these three teams.

What is it that makes Edey good? As I said, his per10 says he's a better Boban and should crush per36 but is a 10 MPG player. His per36 says he's the best offensive scoring big in the last 40 years in college basketball. What makes him so good? Hands, touch around the basket, ability to score an easy basket in traffic, movement skills, screening, length and using his length with high BBIQ, Elite FT drawing skills comparable to Alonzo Mourning, great feel for the game, high BBIQ, good passer but not a playmaker, he's a great roller and understands spacing for the roll like Clint. Offensively, this might be one of the best prospects in the last 40 years at this stage on offense. Sometimes they develop into this in time in the NBA but as a prospect, it's been a long time since we got a polished offensive prospect.

https://tankathon.com/players/compare?players=zach-edey--hakeem-olajuwon--alonzo-mourning--shaquille-o-neal--tim-duncan

My impact grades him at 10 wins but if he translates, he's at 45 wins which is equal to Capela in our ECF year when his impact was top tier.

I am truly in a strange place with Edey. He has the making of a top 15 NBA player but he also can be playing Bruno's role for the next 10 NBA seasons. So much just depends on where he lands. If there was a Giannis or Gobert in this class as it's comparable to 2013, Edey is my bet for if there was an MVP in this class, who would it be. I have Sheppard and Edey as those two guys in five seasons if they land in the right spots. Edey is still 4th tier on my BB because he's a boom-or-bust guy. That said, the reason I created this thread is because if there was a player that could elevate Trae, I think this is the kid.

My impact grades have a love/hate with prospects Haliburton, Brunson, Tyler Ulis, Trae Young, Kendall Marshall, S. Cooper, Jax. Hayes, Edey, Bassey, and a lot of NBA centers. So PGs and Cs who don't meet the reqs for what a center or PG has to have are boom or bust guys. There is NO in-between.

I have put a serious Hawks BB but Edey is my top prospect for the Hawks. His offensive value if he hits is so massive, it would change Trae's projection and remove his off-ball responsibilities which is basic +10 added to Trae offensively. That's a massive change.

Hawks BB 2024

Cam Reddish is a low-floor, high-ceiling prospect we took with hopes we can get him to superstardom. 5 years later, he's on a vet min contract and might have to learn Chinese next year. We took a massive risk drafting Trae Young. Someone who didn't have the measurements many NBA teams find useful. He not only translated but he's been a top-30 player for years and he still has upside. So a big part of this is on the player but he needs a good fit as well. Who knows how good Cam would be today if he started his career with LeBron?

Here are some short films on Edey

2023 cuts

Supes Analysis on Edey:

Simple one:

Large One:

Defense:

Offense:

Spud2nique · February 14

Somebody did him already last year he’s aight.

Dnice · February 14

I'll be checking him out someway

NBASupes · February 15

57 minutes ago, Dnice said:

I'll be checking him out someway

Even thought he was the POY last year. I had a 2nd round grade on him and honestly expected him to go undrafted. I did like his shooting touch in the DX vid but still was unmoved. He's the most improved player in the nation. His agility is legit special for his size. It was always good for this level but it was never good enough for the NBA till this year. He just massively improved in areas valuable to the NBA. That said, it's still gonna be a major coup for him to be a NBA star.

kg01 · February 15

Stahhp. 1. Ain't no rookie fixing what ails us. 2. Edey can't move. Ezpass

NBASupes · February 15

3 minutes ago, kg01 said:

Stahhp. 1. Ain't no rookie fixing what ails us. 2. Edey can't move. Ezpass

I don't believe we are that far. When I watch us, its minor but major things.

That was my issue with him till this year. He can actually move now especially agility wise. He's the most improve player I've seen from last year to this year in college basketball

shakes · February 15

not reading all that and don't have to since I follow CBB as much as anyone.

Edey is just the latest in a long line of big men who dominate college, but have no business playing in the NBA.

He CAN'T MOVE. That's a deal breaker in today's NBA. He won't be able to guard the PnR in any capacity. He is unplayable in the NBA.

warcore · February 15

I see nothing in common between Zach Edey and Randy Moss.

17 minutes ago, shakes said:

I follow CBB as much as anyone

casual

NBASupes · February 15

13 minutes ago, shakes said:

not reading all that and don't have to since I follow CBB as much as anyone.

Edey is just the latest in a long line of big men who dominate college, but have no business playing in the NBA.

He CAN'T MOVE. That's a deal breaker in today's NBA. He won't be able to guard the PnR in any capacity. He is unplayable in the NBA.

Who is in that long line who's dominated college? I don't believe we have seen anyone this offensively dominated. And a lot of what he does is things you only see from Al Horford or Tim Duncan like his elite feel for the game movement wise. If a play breaks down, he goes into the right spots. That type of BBIQ is next to impossible to find for bigs. He's going to have to adjust pace wise to the NBA and he's no threat in transition for this era but is there a better half court offensive big in the last 40 years to enter the NBA? Idk and I don't think so. I think his BBIQ is impressive on both ends. He's miles better at movement on both ends than he was just last year. I see a potential stud once he adjust. We saw Gobert had to adjust and he's been a top 10-15 impact player since his 2nd year in the NBA.

The more and more I think about it, I am more sold on Edey for the Hawks than anyone since I am not sold, been awhile.

His agility is excellent for his size. His speed will always be a problem. He's going to have to adjust, if he does, watch out. If he doesn't, he's going to be a career 3rd stringer. He's boom or bust.

shakes · February 15

20 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Who is in that long line who's dominated college? I don't believe we have seen anyone this offensively dominated. And a lot of what he does is things you only see from Al Horford or Tim Duncan like his elite feel for the game movement wise. If a play breaks down, he goes into the right spots. That type of BBIQ is next to impossible to find for bigs. He's going to have to adjust pace wise to the NBA and he's no threat in transition for this era but is there a better half court offensive big in the last 40 years to enter the NBA? Idk and I don't think so. I think his BBIQ is impressive on both ends. He's miles better at movement on both ends than he was just last year. I see a potential stud once he adjust. We saw Gobert had to adjust and he's been a top 10-15 impact player since his 2nd year in the NBA.

The more and more I think about it, I am more sold on Edey for the Hawks than anyone since I am not sold, been awhile.

His agility is excellent for his size. His speed will always be a problem. He's going to have to adjust, if he does, watch out. If he doesn't, he's going to be a career 3rd stringer. He's boom or bust.

just in the last few years:

Oscar Tshiebwe

Luca Garza

Both dominated CBB and were national player of the year.

NBASupes · February 15

1 minute ago, shakes said:

just in the last few years:

Oscar Tshiebwe

Luca Garza

Both dominated CBB and were national player of the year.

None of them other dudes dominated like that or were ever going to translate

https://tankathon.com/players/compare?players=zach-edey--luka-garza--oscar-tshiebwe

Look at Luka

https://tankathon.com/players/compare?players=bruno-fernando--luka-garza

He's the same size as Bruno who's an undersized 5 with less length and athletic ability. He is a tremendous low post scorer. We even see it in the Gleague but what can he do in the NBA. At that size, he ain't gonna be a scoring option although he can score in any league. He provides negative defensive value at this level. He can't be more than a 3rd stringers.

Oscar has more upside than Luka

https://tankathon.com/players/oscar-tshiebwe

Oscar is in the worst place zone.

He can't protect the rim, can't protect the paint, and he can't shoot. Undersized center. Would be a 4 in the 2000s. He's a good switch defender and he an elite rebounder but what is his role in the modern NBA. He would have a role in the old NBA. Reggie Evans type but not today.

You look at Edey. You don't have anyone this good offensively as a big since Kareem. Sure, he has obvious question with his speed and can he play at the pace of today's game. But if he can, you are talking Yao Ming esque and doesn't have the injury concerns of Ming.

bird_dirt · February 15

He’s someone of interest to me, though IDK if I would want him at the draft range he will go.
I feel like our experience with him would be like getting a younger, better version of Clint, including our problems with clogging the lane that we’ve had trouble resolving.
There are a number of legit 7 footers in the draft that are intriguing. Sarr, Flip, Clingan, maybe even Kel’el Ware. I was hyped on Big Z at UK, but he’s come back to earth a little. I’d still love to grab him with a late first or second round pick.
All kind of depends on where they’re drafted IMO.
I think there’s good depth in this draft. No top end talent, but plenty of value throughout.

NBASupes · February 15

3 minutes ago, bird_dirt said:

He’s someone of interest to me, though IDK if I would want him at the draft range he will go.
I feel like our experience with him would be like getting a younger, better version of Clint, including our problems with clogging the lane that we’ve had trouble resolving.
There are a number of legit 7 footers in the draft that are intriguing. Sarr, Flip, Clingan, maybe even Kel’el Ware. I was hyped on Big Z at UK, but he’s come back to earth a little. I’d still love to grab him with a late first or second round pick.
All kind of depends on where they’re drafted IMO.
I think there’s good depth in this draft. No top end talent, but plenty of value throughout.

I believe Edey could develop into top end offensively so I am pushing my chips in his direction.

NBASupes · February 15

25 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

None of them other dudes dominated like that or were ever going to translate

https://tankathon.com/players/compare?players=zach-edey--luka-garza--oscar-tshiebwe

Look at Luka

https://tankathon.com/players/compare?players=bruno-fernando--luka-garza

He's the same size as Bruno who's an undersized 5 with less length and athletic ability. He is a tremendous low post scorer. We even see it in the Gleague but what can he do in the NBA. At that size, he ain't gonna be a scoring option although he can score in any league. He provides negative defensive value at this level. He can't be more than a 3rd stringers.

Oscar has more upside than Luka

https://tankathon.com/players/oscar-tshiebwe

Oscar is in the worst place zone.

He can't protect the rim, can't protect the paint, and he can't shoot. Undersized center. Would be a 4 in the 2000s. He's a good switch defender and he an elite rebounder but what is his role in the modern NBA. He would have a role in the old NBA. Reggie Evans type but not today.

You look at Edey. You don't have anyone this good offensively as a big since Kareem. Sure, he has obvious question with his speed and can he play at the pace of today's game. But if he can, you are talking Yao Ming esque and doesn't have the injury concerns of Ming.

I need to correct myself. All three translated. Bruno, Luka, and Oscar. Go to per36 on Luka, Bruno, and Oscar. It's identical to their college per36. The issue is, none can play those minutes in the NBA without being a total liability. No one going to make Luka a top tier scoring option and give him 20 shot attempts a game. It's not effective and he's a massive defensive liability in NBA. We have Bruno, in spurts, he's good but when he gets a lot of PT, he struggles. There is nothing he does at an elite level. He's just a good player but in a league of excellence, we need more, a lot more.

Oscar played 7 games for Indy and looks insane but the minute you give him big minutes, he's out of place. At the end of the day, these are all good hoopers but this is what 3rd stringers in the NBA look like.

TheNorthCydeRises · February 15

1 hour ago, shakes said:

not reading all that and don't have to since I follow CBB as much as anyone.

Edey is just the latest in a long line of big men who dominate college, but have no business playing in the NBA.

He CAN'T MOVE. That's a deal breaker in today's NBA. He won't be able to guard the PnR in any capacity. He is unplayable in the NBA.

Luka Garza was a better prospect than Edey, because Luka could shoot the 3 ball. But as with Edey, Garza is a complete liability on defense.

Teams would put Edey in pick and roll situations and destroy that dude.

On offense, Edey looks good, but he uses finesse more than brute strength around the rim.

The kid from Duke is a much better all around prospect.

NBASupes · February 15

24 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

Luka Garza was a better prospect than Edey, because Luka could shoot the 3 ball. But as with Edey, Garza is a complete liability on defense.

Teams would put Edey in pick and roll situations and destroy that dude.

On offense, Edey looks good, but he uses finesse more than brute strength around the rim.

The kid from Duke is a much better all around prospect.

Bro, you literally said Garza who can't defend at the college level is a better defender than. Edey. What proof do you have?

Edey can protect the rim, Edey can protect the paint. He's damn near a half a foot taller and 50+ pounds bigger and he's more agile than Garza. Edey has his flaws. Perimeter defense will be a nightmare for him. I have major doubts hes ever going to be a realible switch defender. He's exclusively a drop defender at the next level. But he's miles better than Garza.

He's miles better than Garza on both ends.

Let's assume the worse. He will never adjust to the pace of the game. He's still going to be way better as a 3rd stringers than Garza. He's gonna be an impactful 3rd stringer at the least.

Removed personal attacks...

Edited February 15 by NBASupes

NBASupes · February 15

Edey combine, he was faster, much quicker than Garza and this was last year. He's much quicker this year than he was last year. [Personal insults deleted]

https://www.nba.com/stats/draft/combine-strength-agility?SeasonYear=2021-22&dir=D&sort=THREE_QUARTER_SPRINT

https://www.nba.com/stats/draft/combine-strength-agility?SeasonYear=2023-24

h4wkfan · February 15

What makes Edey a better prospect than Jahlil Okafor offensively? where is okafor now? Pass on the big fella for me.

dalamchops · February 15

i still feel like he's too slow for the modern game

Edited February 15 by dalamchops

shakes · February 15

1 hour ago, NBASupes said:

Removed personal attacks...

if there was a way to do it, I would make "edited to remove personal attacks" be my signature.

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