Hawks Outlook by Real GM

[Final_quest]

Outlook: Atlanta was in many games last year. They were very competitive with teams like San Antonio and Dallas, but they could not pull out those type of wins. A lot of that was due to interior defense as well as not having a point guard who could set up someone like Joe Johnson with an easy shot. Johnson either had to set up his own shot or create for a teammate, something he wasn’t too comfortable with until later in the season.

The Hawks will most likely be bringing over David Andersen from CSKA Moscow for the 2006-2007 season. Andersen was a mainstay in CSKA’s frontcourt until a severe broken ankle kept him out of the latter part of the season. He is a solid rebounder and has a good jump shot out to 20+ feet, but is not known for his interior defense. Altanta could use a shot blocker in the frontcourt to balance out the hustle of Zaza Pachulia and the veteran’s game of Andersen.

But the most important and glaring need is a traditional point guard. Someone who can set up the wings and get the ball moving. The Hawks were great when they had over 20 assists a game, but that was when the lieks of Josh Smith and Pachulia had at least four assists themselves. It’s not taking away anything from them, but the point guard has to set up the big men, not the other way around.

This draft is all on Knight. He had the chance to grab one of the three heralded point guards in Chris Paul, Deron Williams and Raymond Felton. It’s now looking like they may have to deal their rookie from last season, Marvin Williams, to try and help get that need filled in. (More on that in Version 4.0). If Knight feels the need to draft yet another 6’8” swingman, he won’t hear the end of it.

Most Suitable Prospects:

Marcus Williams – Without a doubt, Williams is the right pick for them. He’s the pass-first point guard who loves to push the tempo but can slow it down if needed. The hawks personnel is catered to someone likes Williams, even if the offense that Head Coach Mike Woodson runs isn’t. His shot selection was a bit shaky at UCONN, as was his overall defense and ability to use his right hand, but he still gets the job done. He has the size and veteran’s mindset to come in and help the Hawks reach the playoffs for the first time in a while.

Brandon Roy – Roy may not be the PG the Hawks need, but he will be the best available player if he falls past the Bulls, Bobcats and Blazers. (How’s that for an alliteration?) He has a complete game on both ends of the floor and has the handle to, well, handle point guard duties. He will have a very hard time defending most point guards because they are much quicker than the guards Roy was used to facing in the Pac-10. But if he’s at #5, Knight will consider him.

Randy Foye – Foye is said to be one of the guards Atlanta covets at this spot. He would mesh well with Johnson beucase he can handle the opposing point guard, handle the ball up the court and let Johnson initiate the offense. He’s not the natural PG the Hawks need and will never be, but his ability to score and find open teammates on drives is unmatched in this year’s draft.

Tyrus Thomas – Thomas may be on a downfall in this draft, but at this point, everything is shaky. Thomas won’t be able to contribute on offense right off the bat, but the kid’s a workhorse and won’t give up on any play. He has the ability to block shots and ignite the fast break. He has the size and potential Knight covets in the draft. But the Hawks have enough players that can do what Thomas can do right now. He would not be a great fit with the team immediately, but he may be a guy they would want to add in five years, when his ofense is more polished and his body is filled out.

Best Case Scenario: Williams. Without a doubt, Knight has to draft him unless there’s a deal involving a PG and a pick that Knight can’t refuse. Williams fits into their system perfectly and had even said, in an interview with DraftExpress, that he would fit on that team and would want to help elad them into the playoffs. Doc Rivers said it best when he attended a workout with Peter F. Stringer of Celtics.com:

"Marcus plays the game at his speed. He doesn't allow anyone to speed him up or slow hin down. That's what you see veterans do more than young guys."

Worst Case Scenario: Someone like Bargnani slips to Atlanta. If he falls this far, it will mean a trade might be brewing, but Knight loves tall, athletic players. He traded for the rights to Pau Gasol when he was with the Grizzlies and would not hesitate to grab a guy like Bargnani if the other two big men and both Roy and Adam Morrison are off the board. In Knight’s best interest, he should fill the draft air with smokescreens, then surprise everyone and take Williams.

I wonder if the people that right this actually know about the David Andersen situation. I've never felt like I've gotten the straight story on him.

[Nicholasp27]

as of last summer, he came over to visit and they decided he would come to the Hawks this fall

after he got injured, i'm not sure if this plan changed or not

[KB21]

I simply cannot see how some believe Marcus Williams is such a great fit for the Hawks. Two things the Hawks want to be are up tempo and defensive. Marcus Williams, outside of the length of the court passes he tosses, is not the type of point guard that will gear up an up tempo oriented style. He's also not a great finisher, whether he is penetrating or shooting the jump shot, and this decreases his impact when having to play off the ball. Defensively, he's not going to be a Deron Williams type that has the athleticism and quickness to defend NBA point guards.

He's not nearly the fit that a guy like Randy Foye is. Randy Foye is a better fit because he is an excellent ball handler that can bring the ball up the court, and once across half court, he's a tremendous spot up jump shooter and finisher around the basket. That's a key, IMO, because he doesn't need the ball all the time to do well offensively. He can play alongside Joe Johnson, who will be the point man in half court sets. To top it off, Randy Foye is a bulldog defensively. This guy will flat out get after you, and he can guard smaller point guards as well as guys who are bigger than he is.

At this point, I see no way that Marcus Williams should be in consideration for the 5th pick. If it is a point guard, then Randy Foye or Rajon Rondo are much better picks for the Hawks.

[MoonKnight]

A couple of points:

1) IMO, BK will not draft a point guard at #5. There is really nothing in BK's draft history to suggest he would consider Williams, Rondo, or a short combo guard in Foye so high in the draft. The author does not appear to have a good grasp on BK at all.

2) If Thomas is around at 5, which is likely, BK will select him. BK will talk of TT being being a hybrid 5 and rave about the lenght and athleticism of his frontcourt.

3) What evidence exists that BK is considering trading Marvin Williams? This is rank speculation.

4) KB I think you are undervaluing Marcus Williams. I was a huge proponent of drafting Deron Williams last year with our pick. Marcus Williams is actually a far better passer than Deron and a gifted leader on the court. UConn would have gone nowhere without Williams despite their otherwise talented squad. Marcus is fantastic on the break and does an excellant job of pushing the ball. He could easily average 7 or more assists on our team his rookie season. He has similar value to Deron. I agree with you that there are questions about his D and I will be curious to hear any scouting reports from team workouts about his ability to stay in front of his man. If I were the Hawks GM I would strongly consider Williams with our 5th pick but BK will not likely give it a second thought.

[KB21]

I just don't see the fit with the athletes we have on this team. Marcus Williams is a Mark Jackson type of point guard to me. This is a guy that will walk the ball up the court 70% of the time. IMO, he would be much better in a system like the one Utah runs where they don't look to push the ball a lot and utilize the two man game/pick and roll offensively.

I think Williams's ability on the break has more to do with his length of the court passes to open men than it does with him actually getting out and running the break. I like him, but I think he would slow us down, decrease Joe Johnson's overall effectiveness by taking the ball out of his hands in the half court setting, and not really give us a solution to our defensive problems.

I also think Tyrus Thomas will go to the Bulls with the 2nd pick.

[AHF]

I will say Williams' quickness really impressed me against Kentucky in the NCAA tournament. He took Rondo off the dribble some that game and I don't think Mark Jackson ever would have had the speed to do that (although with his size he could have posted Rondo up).

[vdunkndunk]

PG is NOT our most glaring need. We need some big men.

[Teeareess]

When Zaza is our only NBA quality big, I don't see how that fact can even be in doubt.

[KB21]

There is no way of telling what the Hawks draft board will look like, but at this point, the only "big" men that could possibly be considered at the 5th pick are Patrick O'Bryant and Shelden Williams. On most boards right now, it appears that both would be slight reaches at the 5th pick. I just don't believe you should draft for need. You should draft whoever the best player that fits your team is. It never fails. If you draft for need, you are going to pass on a better player that will probably be a better overall fit for your team. We should have learned during the Pete Babcock era that drafting for need does not elevate the team.

[sturt]

I think it's been said here and elsewhere before, but bears repeating...

The most successful franchises will draft the best player available, then deal with specific weaknesses in the roster in the FA market and through trades... but, trading from strength where there is saturation in specific positions on the roster.

For that reason, which is consistent with everything that BK has ever said about his draft philosophy, he will not at all be prodded into picking a PG.

That *doesn't* mean he won't pick up a PG in the off-season, but that failing a draft trade, he's not going to use the #5 pick to get the 9th or 10th best basketball player available.

To do different is to give more ammunition to the critics that he should have selected Paul last draft... and if BK is one thing, it is "single-minded."

[KB21]

Exactly!

I'm trying to figure out why some people understand that and others don't. Well, I think I know why, but......

[Teeareess]

I think the same way. I've always thought that Williams was a reach at 5, and if it weren't for our seemingly glaring hole, he wouldn't be considered. I don't want to get another 6-8 guy, but I don't want to reach and get a guy, just because he plays PG.

[jezmund]

I still feel like we need to go BPA. Marcus Williams would fill a need but like some of you have brought up, is he right for our system? What starter-quality bigs are there? I'm extremely intrigued by Sene and O'Bryant. At #5, though, I think Brandon Roy might have to be our pick. Rudy Gay seems to be highly sought after by teams after us so if he is there, we might need to make a trade.

[cyman3]

I think teams like MIAMI and SAN ANTONIO should draft according to NEED. They are already one of the best teams in the west, have star players, great system, and just need 1-2 role players. They dont have trouble finding FA in the offseason and can even get them for a sweet deal (since players take CHAMPIONSHIP RING POSSIBLITIY into account when they negociate). thats why it seems like MIAMI always takes the best available PF/C in the first round every year to play next to SHAQ (or be his backup).

however, other talented playoff teams like Mavs or Suns will base it on TALENT. They already have talent and having more tradable assets wont hurt. Dirk and Steve Nash can run w/ anyone. They have the "give me some players to play with" and lets RUN attitude.

and ALL NON-PLAYOFF teams should draft according to TALENT. they are not 1-2 role players away from serious competition. they need all the help they can get. ADD SOME TALENT and go from there.

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that being said, 90+% of the teams in the NBA should base on talent/skill.

[Packfill]

Quote:

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I think teams like MIAMI and SAN ANTONIO should draft according to NEED. They are already one of the best teams in the west, have star players, great system, and just need 1-2 role players. They dont have trouble finding FA in the offseason and can even get them for a sweet deal (since players take CHAMPIONSHIP RING POSSIBLITIY into account when they negociate). thats why it seems like MIAMI always takes the best available PF/C in the first round every year to play next to SHAQ (or be his backup).

however, other talented playoff teams like Mavs or Suns will base it on TALENT. They already have talent and having more tradable assets wont hurt. Dirk and Steve Nash can run w/ anyone. They have the "give me some players to play with" and lets RUN attitude.

and ALL NON-PLAYOFF teams should draft according to TALENT. they are not 1-2 role players away from serious competition. they need all the help they can get. ADD SOME TALENT and go from there.

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that being said, 90+% of the teams in the NBA should base on talent/skill.

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Drafting best player available is fine, but if the pick plays the same position as two of your previous top draft picks then you are looking at a logjam at one or two positions, which will make it difficult if not impossible for any of those picks to get the minutes and confidence they need to reach their potential.

If BK thinks Rudy Gay is the best player available in the draft when the 5th pick rolls around, they he should pick him. But if he does, he has to make a trade to balance off the roster and give the team and the coach a chance to play.

And don't tell me positions don't matter. Maybe they do not but skill still do and right now the Hawks do not have anyone with the skills to guard a quick guard or anyone with the skills to play good interior defense. The Hawks need to get players with those skills whether it is in the draft or through a trade.

[jerrywest]

Pick up Michel Jordan and then decide if Drexler or MJ could get you equal value in a trade for a different position. Knicks picked up Ewing and traded Cartwright to Chicago. Chickago picked up Horace Grant and traded Oakly to NY. Both teams were set. Get the best talent period. If Gay plays like Nique, just get him.

[Packfill]

I think that is what I just said. But if you do, trade someone else to balance off the roster.

[Diesel]

We will draft Morrison.

[Blunt91]

I think Tyrus Thomas will go to the Bobcats. Skiles is saying he likes Tyrus toughness but come draftday he can't help but pick the bigger and more skilled Aldrige. Bickerstaff seems to think like Billy Knight. If Thomas falls to #3 Bernie will pick him. Morrison is such a weak defender I could actually see him slipping to #6 if a team like Portland doesn't draft him.

[DJlaysitup]

Quote:

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...Morrison is such a weak defender I could actually see him slipping to #6 if a team like Portland doesn't draft him.

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I can't imagine Portland not drafting Morrison if he's still there. He would seem to be a perfect fit as far as bringing instant offense and being from a west coast college.