New BS Report

[AHF]

In his last injury free season (07/08) Ellis had a TS% of 58% which is easily better anything that Smith and JJ have done in the last 5 years. He was hurt the last two years. he only played 25 games a couple of years ago.

A big man will get more easy looks inside than a small guard. Monta averages 9 ppg more than Smith while being just as efficient if not more so.

Comparing him to a center is a bit silly as is comparing him to low volume scorers.

I think it is disingenuous to use his career best season (07/08) since that is a massive outlier compared to his career stats. His .580 that season is 40 points higher than his next best year and 40 points higher than his career average which doesn't give me any confidence in him repeating it.

If he was hurt for two of the last three years beyond the point of being useful (i.e., don't count those years because he was so hurt he shouldn't be accountable for them), let me add that to the red flags against going with him. Josh has been a major contributor every season of his careerl.

Monta is a better scorer when allowed to dominate the ball and volume score but he is worse at everything else than Smith even relate to their positions and the scoring difference is not enough for me. (For example, as a passer Smoove is better for a PF than Monta is for a PG). Add in the fact that a Smith for Monta deal adds salary and limits our already shallow front court and I just don't buy into that trade at all.

[exodus]

I think it is disingenuous to use his career best season (07/08) since that is a massive outlier compared to his career stats.

I think it is disingenuous to use a year where he played only 25 games. I'll take a sample size of 81 games over 25 games. He had a TS% of 54.5 the year before in his second season.

07/08 was notable because they actually had a winning team. They won 48 games. Since they had a better team he didn't have to force it as much on offense. Having a TS% of 58% without doing anything from 3 is impressive.

This is the first year that he has been decent from 3. Adding a 3 point shot to his ability to drive on a good team and i don't see efficiency being a problem at all.

the Hawks big problem defensively is at the point. I can't believe he is anything but an improvement over Bibby defensively.

[foeteen14]

Monta Ellis is the worst defensive player in the league. He by himself turns a decent warriors defense into the leagues worse defense. You want to trade our only defensive presence for a guy that plays no defense. That's subtraction by subtraction and subtraction by addition. The warriors are praying that we do this deal. That deal would put them in the playoffs next year if not this year. This deal turns us into the wizards with arenas butler and jamison. Yeah we'd score but we damn sure wouldn't stop anybody from scoring. How does this help us in any way. I'm not sure i do marvin for ellis. That how much of a liability he is on defense. I'd rather have someone that does nothing well than have someone that does something so important worse than anybody in the history of basketball. Okay maybe that's going overboard slightly but i think i made my point.

[yungsta]

the warriors dont want any of our bigs they want the same thing we want. An inside scoring big. they dont want another tweener they already got david lee. so no ellis or curry for us.

Edited February 9, 2011 by yungsta

[coachx]

I think it is disingenuous to use a year where he played only 25 games. I'll take a sample size of 81 games over 25 games. He had a TS% of 54.5 the year before in his second season.

07/08 was notable because they actually had a winning team. They won 48 games. Since they had a better team he didn't have to force it as much on offense. Having a TS% of 58% without doing anything from 3 is impressive.

This is the first year that he has been decent from 3. Adding a 3 point shot to his ability to drive on a good team and i don't see efficiency being a problem at all.

the Hawks big problem defensively is at the point. I can't believe he is anything but an improvement over Bibby defensively.

Some good points here.

[Sothron]

Monta Ellis is the worst defensive player in the league. He by himself turns a decent warriors defense into the leagues worse defense. You want to trade our only defensive presence for a guy that plays no defense. That's subtraction by subtraction and subtraction by addition. The warriors are praying that we do this deal. That deal would put them in the playoffs next year if not this year. This deal turns us into the wizards with arenas butler and jamison. Yeah we'd score but we damn sure wouldn't stop anybody from scoring. How does this help us in any way. I'm not sure i do marvin for ellis. That how much of a liability he is on defense. I'd rather have someone that does nothing well than have someone that does something so important worse than anybody in the history of basketball. Okay maybe that's going overboard slightly but i think i made my point.

lol you need to watch more Hawks games. You want the worst defender at his position we have that in spades in Bibby. Ellis is light years ahead of Bibby.

[AtLaS]

lol you need to watch more Hawks games. You want the worst defender at his position we have that in spades in Bibby. Ellis is light years ahead of Bibby.

Ellis is not a good defender but he's better than Bibby. I think Don Nelson also contributes to his lack of defense just because of the playing style.

This is a trade that entices me, the only thing holding me back is getting even thinner up front.

[coachx]

This is a trade that entices me, the only thing holding me back is getting even thinner up front.

Same here.

It would be nice if the Hawks could get Biedrins but I don't know why they would give him up for our spare parts. The best Warriors big we can realistically hope for is Lou Amundson as an energy guy for Mo. He is limited on talent but give as much effort and heart as any one in the league. Mo gives them a defensive upgrade vs. bigger SGs.

Could we be more competive with:

Ellis / Bibby / Teague

JJ / Crawford / Crawford, Jr

Williams /Wilkens

Horford / Amundson / Powell

Collins / ZaZa / Thomas

I'm assuming next year the plan would be to let Jamal Crawford walk in free agency due to luxury tax and to hopefully use the MLE and the chance to start at C to try to get a veteran center. (Pryzbilla perhaps ?) Ellis fills the need of having a guy who can create off the dribble if we lose Jamal Crawford for nothing. Then we have Bibby's $6.2 mill expiring contact to use as trade bait with possibly a 1st round pick as a trade sweetner to find an adequate center.

Next year:

Ellis / Bibby / Teague

JJ / Crawford Jr

Marvin

Horford / Amundson

Pryzbilla / ZaZa

We could bring back Wilkens, Collins, and Powell or for the minimum or try to upgrade there for minimum contract guys. Plus we have the 1st round pick.

Edited February 9, 2011 by coachx

[AHF]

I think it is disingenuous to use a year where he played only 25 games. I'll take a sample size of 81 games over 25 games. He had a TS% of 54.5 the year before in his second season.

My original post on this used a 3 year window consisting of 139 out of 210 games (this season isn't complete). The 25 game season either goes in as a negative performance or an injury risk. I figured it was part of the 3 year window and would be outweighed by his slightly less mediocre efficiency over the 64 game last season and 50/50 games this season.

Either way, he has played 346 games and shot .539 ts% over his entire career. This season he has improved his skill set on 3's and is shooting a .541 ts%. That doesn't suggeest .580 is sustainable.

07/08 was notable because they actually had a winning team. They won 48 games. Since they had a better team he didn't have to force it as much on offense. Having a TS% of 58% without doing anything from 3 is impressive.

His fg% that season was 53%. His last 3 seasons have been .451, .449 (64 of 80 games), and .457 (50 of 50 games). Given that vastly superior shooters to Monta don't shoot 53% fg%, why would you expect that to be repeatable?

This is the first year that he has been decent from 3. Adding a 3 point shot to his ability to drive on a good team and i don't see efficiency being a problem at all.

Adding the 3 has made raised his ts% just above his career average this season. It is slightly better than Steve Francis' career average. That says to me that he shouldn't be dominating the ball on your team if you want to win anything of any real significance. Can he accept a role where he isn't a top 10 usage guy? I am not sure.

the Hawks big problem defensively is at the point. I can't believe he is anything but an improvement over Bibby defensively.

I have no doubt that is the case. Given the low bar of being an improvement over Bibby, the better question is how good he is defensively compared to the rest of the league's PGs. That I don't know.

[exodus]

His fg% that season was 53%. His last 3 seasons have been .451, .449 (64 of 80 games), and .457 (50 of 50 games). Given that vastly superior shooters to Monta don't shoot 53% fg%, why would you expect that to be repeatable?

Monta has played on crap teams since '08 and has been the focus of the opposing defenses. Back when they were a good team the defense had to focus on other guys which gave Monta better looks. Similarly JJ had a far higher TS% in his last year with the Suns than he has had with the Hawks.

Crawford, Flip and Bibby have all had arguably their most efficient years playing next to JJ. I don't see why Ellis wouldn't benefit from playing next to JJ as well.

Let's not forget that he is playing the 2 and has to shoot over much taller guys. That wouldn't be the case here.

Monta is 6th in the league in scoring with a TS% the same as our $120 million dollar man. I don't think this team is going anywhere as is. I don't see how we can do better than Ellis in a Smoove trade.

Edited February 9, 2011 by exodus

[Joker]

My original post on this used a 3 year window consisting of 139 out of 210 games (this season isn't complete). The 25 game season either goes in as a negative performance or an injury risk. I figured it was part of the 3 year window and would be outweighed by his slightly less mediocre efficiency over the 64 game last season and 50/50 games this season.

Either way, he has played 346 games and shot .539 ts% over his entire career. This season he has improved his skill set on 3's and is shooting a .541 ts%. That doesn't suggeest .580 is sustainable.

His fg% that season was 53%. His last 3 seasons have been .451, .449 (64 of 80 games), and .457 (50 of 50 games). Given that vastly superior shooters to Monta don't shoot 53% fg%, why would you expect that to be repeatable?

Adding the 3 has made raised his ts% just above his career average this season. It is slightly better than Steve Francis' career average. That says to me that he shouldn't be dominating the ball on your team if you want to win anything of any real significance. Can he accept a role where he isn't a top 10 usage guy? I am not sure.

I have no doubt that is the case. Given the low bar of being an improvement over Bibby, the better question is how good he is defensively compared to the rest of the league's PGs. That I don't know.

Ellis is a straight up SG. He's thinks like one. Isn't the playmaker Joe or Jamal is. Doesn't look to pass. He is more selfish than Jamal and some guys want him to play PG for us. I rather start Joe at PG than Ellis much less trade Smoove. Smoove for us>>>Ellis for us. He doesn't answer none of our needs. He's not even a combo guard, he doesn't look for others ever. He is always selfish. I love his talent but don't love his fit for us. He's the one player that needs to stay in GS but he's also the one player I would trade with Curry if it's for anything more than Crawford and Marvin.

Monta has played on crap teams since '08 and has been the focus of the opposing defenses. Back when they were a good team the defense had to focus on other guys which gave Monta better looks. Similarly JJ had a far higher TS% in his last year with the Suns than he has had with the Hawks.

Crawford, Flip and Bibby have all had arguably their most efficient years playing next to JJ. I don't see why Ellis wouldn't benefit from playing next to JJ as well.

Let's not forget that he is playing the 2 and has to shoot over much taller guys. That wouldn't be the case here.

Monta is 6th in the league in scoring with a TS% the same as our $120 million dollar man. I don't think this team is going anywhere as is. I don't see how we can do better than Ellis in a Smoove trade.

I don't see why we would do a Ellis/Smoove trade to begin with.

[exodus]

Ellis is a straight up SG. He's thinks like one. Isn't the playmaker Joe is

Which is exactly why he would be a good fit next to JJ. The Hawks don't need a playmaker next to JJ which is a big reason why Crawford and Flip have been successful here.

FYI Monta's assist rate and better than that of Kobe, Wade, and Brandon Roy.

assist rate

Edited February 9, 2011 by exodus

[benhillboy]

This team needs a little more in the intelligence and critical thinking area. Ellis would be a huge step back in that department. If you could give sort of a Wundeink test to basketball players regarding winning play in crunch time situations where you have to know personnel, penalty, clock management, the importance of staying in front of your man instead of jumping passing lanes, etc., I'm sure he'd rank near the bottom of the league. I don't care where he goes, as long as it's not here and away from Curry. The last thing we need is some bonehead injuring himself in a way clearly outlawed by his contract.

[Joker]

Which is exactly why he would be a good fit next to JJ. The Hawks don't need a playmaker next to JJ which is a big reason why Crawford and Flip have been successful here.

FYI Monta's assist rate and better than that of Kobe, Wade, and Brandon Roy.

assist rate

Joe idea of being a PG is holding the ball till 10 seconds is left and shooting or passing to someone for a contested jumper. Not exactly a good idea. Joe too is a straight up SG. Doesn't have the physical tools to play at SF and can't defend or consistently play the PG and really doesn't care to either. He's an instinctive player who's feel is more for scoring first, creating second, and passing 3rd. Ellis is instinctive as well but he's score first, attack 2nd, tried to draw a foul 3rd, and then pass. No PG can be successful in that mindset. I don't mind Curry mindset. His is score first, look for open man 2nd, and create for others or pass and create off of screens 3rd. Somewhere between 1 and 2, one of these much be an option. Those are looking to pass, creating for others, passing to create for yourself by screens must be an option for a true PG, combo PG, PnR PG, or scoring PG.

Like benhillboy said, Ellis is too much an idiot as well. Smoove is too but that's an idiot who really wants to not be one anymore. Ellis isn't changing either anytime soon.

Edited February 9, 2011 by nbasuperstar40

[ATownWhatup]

ellis and jj would be a great combination.

But i think curry has good potential.. would be a nice pick up to get him, but only if he is healthy!

[exodus]

This team needs a little more in the intelligence and critical thinking area. Ellis would be a huge step back in that department. If you could give sort of a Wundeink test to basketball players regarding winning play in crunch time situations where you have to know personnel, penalty, clock management, the importance of staying in front of your man instead of jumping passing lanes, etc., I'm sure he'd rank near the bottom of the league. I don't care where he goes, as long as it's not here and away from Curry. The last thing we need is some bonehead injuring himself in a way clearly outlawed by his contract.

And this trade would accomplish exactly that. Smith's basketball IQ would have to improve to just be bad. Waching him lead the break is just painful. His jump-turnaround-and-hope-someone-is-there passes are the height of stupidity. Not to mention his habit of launching long jumpers at the end of tight games.

Edited February 9, 2011 by exodus

[foeteen14]

When i was saying ellis is the worst defender in the league i wasn't just throwing that out there. He really IS THE WORST DEFENDER IN THE LEAGUE. the warriors defense would be better with only 4 players on the court than having ellis out there getting in the way. the thought of this trade is disturbing. 1st you trade a big for a small on a team that lacks bigs. 2nd you trade a shot blocker/ changer for a terrible defender (he is worse than bibby). 3rd the move doesn't fix any of the hawks problems. i.e. perimeter defense a center a point guard (ellis is a pg in the same way a.i. was a pg, with even less thought of passing the ball). 4th what happens to the lineup. we starting collins now? powell? is marvin moving to 4 while we run a 3 guard offense. 5th what if bibby and ellis end up on the floor at the same time. you would see less penetration in a brothel. what if ellis and crawford end up on the court at the same time. you'd see more passing in a game of one on one.

[Admin]

When i was saying ellis is the worst defender in the league i wasn't just throwing that out there. He really IS THE WORST DEFENDER IN THE LEAGUE. the warriors defense would be better with only 4 players on the court than having ellis out there getting in the way. the thought of this trade is disturbing. 1st you trade a big for a small on a team that lacks bigs. 2nd you trade a shot blocker/ changer for a terrible defender (he is worse than bibby). 3rd the move doesn't fix any of the hawks problems. i.e. perimeter defense a center a point guard (ellis is a pg in the same way a.i. was a pg, with even less thought of passing the ball). 4th what happens to the lineup. we starting collins now? powell? is marvin moving to 4 while we run a 3 guard offense. 5th what if bibby and ellis end up on the floor at the same time. you would see less penetration in a brothel. what if ellis and crawford end up on the court at the same time. you'd see more passing in a game of one on one.

Using what metric is he the worst defender in the league?

[AHF]

Using what metric is he the worst defender in the league?

I see the following metrics:

DWS/48

Ellis 0.0205

Bibby 0.0403

(see basketball reference)

+/-: GS is 7.9 points worse defensively with Ellis on the floor; ATL is 1.4 points better defensively with Bibby on the floor

http://www.82games.com/1011/10GSW4.HTM#onoff

http://www.82games.com/1011/10ATL1.HTM#onoff

Those metrics suggest that Ellis is worse than Bibby defensively. I have a hard time believing that but it isn't comforting.

[Admin]

I see the following metrics:

DWS/48

Ellis 0.0205

Bibby 0.0403

(see basketball reference)

+/-: GS is 7.9 points worse defensively with Ellis on the floor; ATL is 1.4 points better defensively with Bibby on the floor

http://www.82games.c...0GSW4.HTM#onoff

http://www.82games.c...0ATL1.HTM#onoff

Those metrics suggest that Ellis is worse than Bibby defensively. I have a hard time believing that but it isn't comforting.

Yeah I don't see how that makes sense at all, although I'm not in the camp that wants Ellis unless we're giving up Jamal or Bibby as the centerpiece for him, which in both cases is pretty unlikely.