Hawks - HEAT

[lethalweapon3]

By night’s end, we may find the Atlanta Hawks, a team expected by most people to be in rebuilding mode, looking down at the defending world champion Miami HEAT in the standings. Not even the Mayans warned anybody about this!

Coach Erik Spoelstra has to do something about Miami’s defensive efficiency… or should we say deficiency? 100 points allowed per game, and 107.3 points allowed per 100 possessions, places Miami statistically below lowly teams like Washington, Sacramento, and Detroit.

Shane Battier and Mario Chalmers are pushing opponents out to the perimeter, as a league-high 30.2% of opponents’ shots are three-pointers. On the season, Miami’s opponents have only hit 31.9% of their threes at American Airlines Arena. But the teams that can hit from that range are torching the HEAT lately. Jordan Crawford went 3-for-6 from three-point range on Tuesday, Raymond Felton 6-for-10 and Steve Novak 4-for-9 on Thursday, and Ryan Anderson 4-for-6 on Saturday, all leading scorers for their teams against Miami. Wayne Ellington had the game of his life (7-for-11, as the Grizzlies blew the HEAT out on November 11) and hasn’t been heard from since. The Hawks are shooting 39.3% on threes on the road, highest in the East.

It should go without saying, but DO NOT LEAVE THE ALL TIME THREE-POINT SHOT MAKER ALONE AT THE THREE-POINT LINE. It’s as if Miami’s approach to perimeter defense is to hit more threes than their opponents (they're 8-1 when they do). Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis, and Battier are all in the NBA top ten for 3-point marksmanship. And they can always settle for Mike Miller or James Jones in a pinch. Most of these players are incredibly one-dimensional at the various stages of their careers. But that dimension is important to Miami’s game planning, because it helps them to bust zone defenses and allows their Big 3 to go one-on-one with their defenders.

What more must LeBron James do for his team? He’s hitting seven times as many threes (1.4 per game on a career-high 43.9 shooting percentage) as his starting shooting guard. He’s rocking a rebounding percentage (14.5 per 100 possessions) higher than his starting center, and an assist percentage (34.5 per 100 possessions) nearly 50 percent higher than either player in his starting backcourt. LeBron is still a Mack truck in Nikes when he finds a path to the hoop, but he’s earning a career-low 5.7 free throw shots while shooting a career-low 65.0 FT% (59.3% in his last five games). Whoever is assigned to LeBron at any point of the game must shadow him the full-length of the court when Miami goes on the fastbreak, shielding him from other ballhandlers and forcing others to finish plays.

LeBron will need Chris Bosh to demonstrate a greater defensive presence against the Hawks’ red-hot frontcourt. In their last three games, the frontlines for Washington (11-for-17), New York (10-for-16), and New Orleans (19-for-35) got little resistance on two-point field goals. Bosh will also look to bounce back after back-to-back subpar offensive performances (7-for-23 shooting) in his last two games. Zaza Pachulia (17.2 total rebounding percentage) can help neutralize Miami’s only other rebounding threat, Udonis Haslem (16.9 total rebounding percentage).

Bosh continues to establish himself more firmly as the ‘2’ in the pecking order of Miami’s Big 3. Dwyane Wade missed the last matchup with the Hawks due to Atlanta’s notorious Club Flu, and is periodically hampered with migraines and a sprained left foot. Wade is still highly relied upon (28.3% usage rate, top ten in the league and a shade behind LeBron), but in order to be truly effective, he has to get to the free throw line. Like Bosh (86.9 FT%), Wade is connecting on his free throws once he gets there (80.0 FT%). Wade averaged 3.6 free throw attempts in Miami’s five losses, versus 6.7 FTAs in ten winning appearances. Look for Defensive Player of the Year candidate DeShawn Stevenson (just kidding! What’s up, P-bird!) who drew the short straw to defend LeBron late in the November 9 game, to shift his defensive energies to Wade, as Josh Smith works to minimize LeBron’s imprint on the game.

Even without Kyle Korver for one more game, the Hawks need to keep the ball moving and find open shooters. Atlanta is 7-1 when ringing up 24 or more assists (the one being the last-second loss to Cleveland), while Miami is 0-3 when opponents get more than 25 assists. In the previous matchup, the HEAT had no answers for Jeff Teague (20 points on 7-for-8 shooting, 11 assists, 2 turnovers) or Anthony Morrow (17 points).

Atlanta will have to continue making their mark as ballHawks, too. They’ve managed to reach 3^rd in the NBA for steals (9.3 per game, tops in the East) while getting called for the 2^nd-fewest personal fouls (18.4 per game, fewest in the East). In the 95-89 HEAT victory, the Hawks snatched the ball away just 4 times. Miami is 8-0 when they don’t cough the ball up more than 6 times.

The most important factor for the Hawks is composure. The HEAT will have their occasional runs and more than their share of highlight plays to give fans their money’s worth. The Hawks cannot compound bad breaks with frustration and anxiety taking themselves out of the game, the way Zaza did in the previous matchup with an unnecessary technical in less than 15 minutes of action. The effectiveness of the Hawks’ offense coming out of timeouts and responding after big shots and plays from Miami will determine how likely they come out on top tonight.

Go Hawks!

~lw3

[NineOhTheRino]

Win and this will be the game that puts this team on the radar of the city. I can't remember a season with worse fan-support. Heck even hs.net feels abandoned. Let's hope the fading FBS season and a win tonight puts the spotlight on the Hawks.

CAN'T WAIT!!!

[Peoriabird]

Look for Defensive Player of the Year candidate DeShawn Stevenson (just kidding! What’s up, P-bird!) who drew the short straw to defend LeBron late in the November 9 game, to shift his defensive energies to Wade, as Josh Smith works to minimize LeBron’s imprint on the game.

LOL!

[AnthonyI11]

I seriously can NOT wait for this game tonight

[macdaddy]

I"ve apparently gotten dumber because i can't figure out how to embed videos anymore. Help?

[macdaddy]

That's what i thought. It seems to not work for me. Here goes:

http://youtu.be/tsy33dtKJac

[macdaddy]

figured it out! thanks hf! Its got to be the share link not the actual url. At least for me.

[NineOhTheRino]

We have ourselves a sneaky good sports night with this game and Pats-Texans on MNF.

[benhillboy]

I think Teague's ability to negate Chalmers' and Cole's ball pressure will go a long way towards a win for us. I wouldn't expect to stop LeBron, it's limiting the other stiffs on the perimeter (Ray not included) to contested shots and no offensive boards. By all means, let Wade shoot till his arms fall off from outside, or the backboard cracks, whichever comes first. If Zaza gives us tough work on the boards, we're sitting pretty.

Edited December 10, 2012 by benhillboy

[PSSSHHHRRR87]

Another great writeup! Kudos and this is going to be one heck of a game! Go Hawks!

[lethalweapon3]

C-Viv @ajchawks reports Haslem will be a scratch due to the flu. Which means lots more Joel Anthony and Jorts Harrellson if we're lucky.

~lw3

[pimp]

I know the refs favor the heat, but the ref shouldn't stick his foot out to save a ball from going out of bound, so a heat player could get it.lol smh

[Wretch]

L.....................................O.......................................L........................!?

Are you kiddin' me? What foul? What did I miss on that LBJ dunk....lol

omg....too funny.

[Alex]

Not watching, but is our defense playing poorly or is Miami just not missing their shots?

[dalamchops]

i can't believe the Heat are allowed to push and shove on D like this..

[benhillboy]

Not watching, but is our defense playing poorly or is Miami just not missing their shots?

They were pretty hot from the perimeter. Miller, Cole, even Wade. They have a guy named LeBron James who looked like he might've been the best player on the court. I don't know. We'll get em this year. Edited December 11, 2012 by benhillboy

[itsslomotionbaby]

well you just not going to beat them when they are shooting like that, especially when wade decides to play.cant complain thigh b/c we were still right their until 3 minutes lefty in the third. got cold on the perimeter & heat never cooled off.i still wish we had another big we could play besides zaza. dont get me wrong (i like the heart that he gives us but he needs to at least give us six a game) i see people get him the ball in th paint & a lot of times lately he looks stuck..i whish we had kover back to give us a little more defense on the perimeter. why didnt ivan get some run?

[Plainview1981]

It's simple... They got the stars and the Hawks have role players trying to be stars.And the stars won.

[capstone21]

We played well for almost 3 quarters. We don't match up well with the Heat

[PureGreatness]

It's simple... They got the gall of fame super stars and the Hawks just have all stars

And the super stars won.

fixed