2016 Dynasty Draft Official Thread

[lethalweapon3]

Top College Conferences* among Draftees:

(based on Schools' Current Conferences)

SEC -- 34 [Ashlucky 16, Florida 5, Arkansas 3]

ACC -- 30 [Duke 9, Blech 4, UNC 4, Cuse 4, Wake 3]

Pac-12 -- 30 [UCLA 9, Arizona 6, Cal 3, Stanford 3]

Big 12 -- 16 [Texas 7, Kansas 4]

Big Ten -- 16 [Alex State 7, The Ohio State 4]

Big East -- 12 [Marquette 4]

The American -- 8 [UConn 3, Memphis 3]

Conference USA -- 4

West Coast -- 4

Mountain West -- 3

Ohio Valley -- 3

Atlantic 10 -- 2 

Big West -- 1

Ivy League -- 1

Patriot League -- 1

Summit League -- 1

Sun Belt – 1

 

Other Points-of-Entry:

Straight Outta 12th Grade -- 8

Europe -- 25 [Spain 4, Croatia 3, France 3]

Asia -- 3

Africa -- 2 

Australia -- 2

South America -- 1

 

~lw3

[lethalweapon3]

29 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

So what metric are we gonna use to rank the teams?

I've got one imperfect measure  "For Entertainment Purposes Only" that I'll share later today or tomorrow. "Ranks" for each of the next five seasons.

~lw3

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, capstone21 said:

I feel like the current version of 2k would be better for last seasons fantasy teams... while if we want to rank this years teams we have to wait until next years game comes out ... for instance Harrison Barnes on my team has gone from 4th option to 1st option this year so the current nba2k is not going to take things like that into account ... 

You also can't measure chemistry and how players play together,  who is going to sacrifice etc. with a video game so really it is all moot ... otherwise the Howard/Kobe/Gasol super team from a few years ago would have been off the charts or even last years Houston team would have ranked much better in NBA2k while egos/chemistry/.defense ruined their season in reality.  

PS Olidipo is my 6th man with Batum at SG and  Barnes starting ... l like the idea of dipo coming off the bench and taking that Manu role (and Barnes is going to really step up this year too)

I agree with this. After all we drafted for 2016-17 and beyond so last year's 2k wouldn't make sense as far as ratings and chemistry. So if it's ok with everybody, I wait till the game comes out...September 16 for early birds and 20th for everyone else and ill construct the rosters, simulate the season, playoffs, championship etc. by early to mid October. I'll have it definitely before the season starts.

3 minutes ago, lethalweapon3 said:

I've got one imperfect measure  "For Entertainment Purposes Only" that I'll share later today or tomorrow. "Ranks" for each of the next five seasons.

~lw3

I'm gonna dominate the $hit outta this....:-)

[AHF]

3 minutes ago, Spud2Nique said:

I agree with this. After all we drafted for 2016-17 and beyond so last year's 2k wouldn't make sense as far as ratings and chemistry. So if it's ok with everybody, I wait till the game comes out...September 16 for early birds and 20th for everyone else and ill construct the rosters, simulate the season, playoffs, championship etc. by early to mid October. I'll have it definitely before the season starts.

Do they do automatic updates on player ratings?  @capstone21 brings up a good point.  Waiting to see Barnes' shooting rating drop after he has to create offense instead of being fed nothing but wide open shots.  

[Guest]

25 minutes ago, AHF said:

Do they do automatic updates on player ratings?  @capstone21 brings up a good point.  Waiting to see Barnes' shooting rating drop after he has to create offense instead of being fed nothing but wide open shots.  

Well ya the player ratings are updated for 2017 2k...I think that's what you meant :-|....and yes, I agree Harry Barnes will be better than a 4th option but not #1, no way, if he's #1 the Mavs are in deep trouble lol

[AHF]

34 minutes ago, Spud2Nique said:

Well ya the player ratings are updated for 2017 2k...I think that's what you meant :-|....and yes, I agree Harry Barnes will be better than a 4th option but not #1, no way, if he's #1 the Mavs are in deep trouble lol

I meant as a patch or something during the season but I guess people would have less incentive to buy next year's game if they updated periodically so they were current by year's end.

[capstone21]

1 hour ago, Spud2Nique said:

Well ya the player ratings are updated for 2017 2k...I think that's what you meant :-|....and yes, I agree Harry Barnes will be better than a 4th option but not #1, no way, if he's #1 the Mavs are in deep trouble lol

I think the Mavs are in deep doo doo anyway

[lethalweapon3]

Summer Dynasty Draftees by NBA Draft Class

1998: 1 (1 Lottery… Dirk)

1999: 1 (1 2nd-Rounder… Manu)

2000: 1 (1 Lottery… Jamal)

2001: 4 (2 Lottery… Pau & Joe; 2 Late 1st-Rounders… Z-Bo & Parker)

2002: NONE

2003: 7 (4 Lottery; 1 Late 1st-Rounder; 1 2nd-Rounder… Zaza), plus 1 Undrafted (Calderon)

2004: 8 (4 Lottery; 3 Late 1st-Rounders; 1 2nd-Rounder)

2005: 10 (4 Lottery; 2 Late 1st-Rounders; 4 2nd-Rounders), plus 1 Undrafted (A. Anderson)

2006: 7 (3 Lottery; 2 Late 1st-Rounders; 2 2nd-Rounders)

2007: 6 (5 Lottery; 1 2nd-Rounder)

2008: 14 (7 Lottery; 5 Late 1st-Rounders; 2 2nd-Rounders)

2009: 14 (6 Lottery; 5 Late 1st-Roundersl 3 3nd-Rounders), plus 1 Undrafted (Matthews)

2010: 14 (10 Lottery; 2 Late 1st-Rounders; 2 2nd-Rounders), plus 1 Undrafted (Lin)

2011: 23 (13 Lottery; 7 Late 1st-Rounders; 3 2nd-Rounders)

2012: 14 (7 Lottery; 3 Late 1st-Rounders; 4 2nd-Rounders), plus 1 Undrafted (Bazemore)

2013: 18 (12 Lottery; 4 Late 1st-Rounders; 2 2nd-Rounders), plus 3 Undrafted

2014: 22 (13 Lottery; 5 Late 1st-Rounders; 4 2nd-Rounders), plus 2 Undrafted

2015: 16 (12 Lottery; 2 Late 1st-Rounders; 2 2nd-Rounders)

2016: 18 (13 Lottery; 3 Late 1st-Rounders; 2 2nd-Rounders)

 

~lw3

[Guest]

3 hours ago, lethalweapon3 said:

Summer Dynasty Draftees by NBA Draft Class

 

 

1998: 1 (1 Lottery… Dirk)

 

 

1999: 1 (1 2nd-Rounder… Manu)

 

 

2000: 1 (1 Lottery… Jamal)

 

 

2001: 4 (2 Lottery… Pau & Joe; 2 Late 1st-Rounders… Z-Bo & Parker)

 

 

2002: NONE

 

 

2003: 7 (4 Lottery; 1 Late 1st-Rounder; 1 2nd-Rounder… Zaza), plus 1 Undrafted (Calderon)

 

 

2004: 8 (4 Lottery; 3 Late 1st-Rounders; 1 2nd-Rounder)

 

 

2005: 10 (4 Lottery; 2 Late 1st-Rounders; 4 2nd-Rounders), plus 1 Undrafted (A. Anderson)

 

 

2006: 7 (3 Lottery; 2 Late 1st-Rounders; 2 2nd-Rounders)

 

 

2007: 6 (5 Lottery; 1 2nd-Rounder)

 

 

2008: 14 (7 Lottery; 5 Late 1st-Rounders; 2 2nd-Rounders)

 

 

2009: 14 (6 Lottery; 5 Late 1st-Roundersl 3 3nd-Rounders), plus 1 Undrafted (Matthews)

 

 

2010: 14 (10 Lottery; 2 Late 1st-Rounders; 2 2nd-Rounders), plus 1 Undrafted (Lin)

 

 

2011: 23 (13 Lottery; 7 Late 1st-Rounders; 3 2nd-Rounders)

 

 

2012: 14 (7 Lottery; 3 Late 1st-Rounders; 4 2nd-Rounders), plus 1 Undrafted (Bazemore)

 

 

2013: 18 (12 Lottery; 4 Late 1st-Rounders; 2 2nd-Rounders), plus 3 Undrafted

 

 

2014: 22 (13 Lottery; 5 Late 1st-Rounders; 4 2nd-Rounders), plus 2 Undrafted

 

 

2015: 16 (12 Lottery; 2 Late 1st-Rounders; 2 2nd-Rounders)

 

 

2016: 18 (13 Lottery; 3 Late 1st-Rounders; 2 2nd-Rounders)

 

~lw3

Appreciated you much lw3!

[Guest]

3 hours ago, capstone21 said:

I think the Mavs are in deep doo doo anyway

Really? I think they will be the 6th or 7th seed in the west. I like the Bogut/Barnes chemistry brought over from GS...also they have a professional vet type team with Dirk n Deron n Wes Matthews...I think they will fight.

[lethalweapon3]

**FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY**

((tl;dr: If you don’t care about the sausage-making, scroll down past this post to the next one for the “results”))

FiveThirtyEight produces an annual predictive model under a backronym called CARMELO (Career-Arc Regression Model Estimator with Local Optimization) that estimates the effective future production of NBA players. CARMELO is inspired by a similar model FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver established (PECOTA) for Baseball Prospectus back in the early 2000s, along with work Silver did for a 2014 New York Times article about the Knicks’ star forward.

 

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/

(Enter your favorite players’ names into their interactive tool to see the career projections.)

 

Silver, senior sports writer Neil Paine and visual journalist Allison McCann collaborated to provide fans with an interactive tool that assesses Wins Above Replacement (WAR) values for every NBA season from the upcoming one (2016-17) to seasons seven years away (2022-23).

 

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-were-predicting-nba-player-career/

To reach their projections, the analysts prepare weighted averages of efficiency stats from each player’s prior three NBA seasons (and adjusted college stats in the case of incoming rookies, which are more heavily evaluated based on age and incoming draft position). The analysts then apply a metric that looks at the single-season performances of the most similar players in NBA history to each current player.

 

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/tim-hardaway-jr/

(Here, you’ll see Junior’s 2015-16 season compared favorably to Stinger’s 1979-80 season, the latter used to help project Hardaway’s 2016-17 and beyond.)

 

The similarity indexes allow the analysts to produce, in each forthcoming season, a range of WAR values spanning from the “10^th percentile” to the “90^th percentile”. These ranges are typically wider for players stocked with upside, or for accomplished stars returning after long injury absences. In the middle of each range is the “50^th percentile” used to establish the WAR projection for any particular season.

I compiled the WAR projections for every player selected in the 2016 Summer Dynasty Draft. This being a five-year prospective draft, I collected only those 50^th-percentile values from 2016-17 through the 2020-21 season. Of the 208 players picked, only three (Thon Maker, Dario Saric, Dragan Bender) lacked WAR data; as FiveThirtyEight notes, they did not include performance data for players entering the league from outside the NCAA. In all three cases, I included modest but steadily increasing WAR values of 0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8, and 1.0.

 

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/fivethirtyeights-2015-16-nba-forecast/

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/whats-new-in-our-nba-projections-for-2016-17/

 

FiveThirtyEight has tools I lack to assess an NBA team’s prospectus for wins in the upcoming season. My calculation, by comparison, is quite crude: tabulation of total WAR for the 13 players picked by each Summer Dynasty team. I’ll call it SUM-MELO.

It would be fallacious to look at the SUM-MELO values presented below and rely upon them as reasonable estimations of wins (out of 82 games) produced by each SDL team, and the reasons are many. Most glaringly, the individual player WAR values are not weighted, based on things like usage and probable floor time, in any way. Your 12^th-through-14^th Round selections are not likely to have an impact on team success that’s equivalent to your 1^st-through-3^rd Round picks, for example.

Also, one of your 14 picks was a Head Coach. Everyone selects a coach they believe can push players to perform above their projections, and the relative effect of their magic on each team cannot be estimated here. The NBA 2K game and season simulations will do a far better job, in my opinion, of assessing the likelihood of victories for an 82-game schedule. (One could apply a multiplier factor equivalent to 15/13 to SUM-MELO scores to get a closer estimate of wins over 82 games, since NBA teams can staff up to 15 players on a team, but I stopped short of dong that).

So for these and other reasons, I’d encourage the application of SUM-MELO here for two things:

1. Rough but reasonable estimations of where teams might stand relative to one another at the outset (2016-17), and:
2.  Noting the relative steepness of each team’s inexorable decline, whether it’s over the next two, three, four or five years. It really varies among teams, based on the types of players selected by Squawk GMs.

Note that these generally downward trends assume that you’re sticking with these same, mostly-veteran, players over the course of the next five seasons (i.e., no trades, no retirements, no incoming rookies or free agents to turn things around).

Now, since these figures are **For Entertainment Purposes Only**, let’s move ahead with the results. If the order of teams based on SUM-MELO held true, then next year’s Executive of the Year award would go to a female for the first time ever! Congratulations in advance, Ashley…

((SUM-MELO results in my next post))

~lw3

[Guest]

Dang, this CARMELO system is kinda deep. I might need to read it a third time to fully comprehend lol

[lethalweapon3]

((See prior post for a detailed explanation of SUM-MELO results))

 

Here are the top five teams in each forthcoming seasons, adding together the CARMELO estimates of Wins Above Replacement (WAR) for the 13 players on each Summer Dynasty League team to produce SUM-MELO scores.

 

2016-17 Season

1.       AHF – 49.3

2.       Buzzard – 47.6

3.       capstone21 – 45.3

4.       Alex – 41.9

5.       ATLHawks3 – 41.5

(Coincidentally, these above five teams are also the Top 5 in alphabetical order by Squawk GM.)

 

2017-18 Season

1.       Buzzard – 47.8

2.       AHF – 46.5

3.       capstone21 – 42.7

4.       Alex – 41.8

5.       lethalweapon3 – 40.2

(Buzzard’s and AHF’s are the only teams that remain among the Top 5 for the next five seasons. Buzzard takes over the top spot going forward, while AHF remains in second. Alex’s squad remains in the Top 4 for the next four seasons, and capstone21 vacates the Top 5 in 2019-20 before returning. Yours truly breaks into the Top 5 from this point forward.)

 

2018-19 Season

1.       Buzzard – 46.8

2.       AHF – 43.7

3.       (3rd - tie) Alex – 39.1

4.       (3rd - tie) lethalweapon3 – 39.1

5.       capstone21 – 37.8

(Although it was in the bottom tier, LucastheThird’s team was the only one to have an increase in SUM-MELO from Season 2 to Season 3. His team’s SUM-MELO score also rose between Season 1 and Season 2, along with Buzzard’s, JayBirdHawk’s, mine, pimp’s, and Spud2Nique’s.)

 

 

2019-20 Season

1.       Buzzard – 40.7

2.       AHF – 39.2

3.       lethalweapon3 – 35.4

4.       Alex – 33.9

5.       Spud2Nique – 33.0

(Spud2Nique makes an appearance in the Top 5 for this season. His team was the only one to have an increase in SUM-MELO between Season 3 and Season 4. Buzzard’s SUM-MELO only begins to make a noticeable drop in Season 4.)

 

2020-21 Season

1.       Buzzard – 36.7

2.       AHF – 35.1

3.       lethalweapon3 – 31.3

4.       HopefulHawksFan – 28.0

5.       capstone21 – 27.8

(HopefulHawksFan breaks into the Top 5 in this season. Her team’s 5-Year SUM-MELO decline was the second-lowest of all Summer Dynasty team’s, behind LucastheThird’s and just ahead of JayBirdHawk’s. h4wkfan finishes in sixth-place in four out of five seasons. His team would be among the Top 8 in every season, along with AHF’s, Alex’s, Buzzard’s, capstone’s, and mine.)

 

Best Rates of Decline over 5 Seasons

1.       LucastheThird – down 15.1%

2.       HopefulHawksFan – down 17.9%

3.       JayBirdHawk – down 18.0%

4.       lethalweapon3 – down 19.7%

5.       pimp – down 22.0%

 

5-Season SUM-MELO Scores by Team (2016-17 through 2020-21)

AHF – 49.3/46.5/43.7/39.2/35.1

Alex – 41.9/41.8/39.1/33.9/27.3

ATLHawks3 – 41.5/34.2/27.0/21.2/15.0

Buzzard – 47.6/47.8/46.8/40.7/36.7

capstone21 – 45.3/42.7/37.8/32.1/27.8

Diesel – 36.7/32.6/28.1/22.3/17.0

h4wkfan – 40.4/39.5/35.1/30.1/27.4

HopefulHawksFan – 34.1/33.6/31.3/30.3/28.0

JayBirdHawk – 31.7/33.1/31.8/30.1/26.0

lethalweapon3 – 39.0/40.2/39.1/35.4/31.3

LucastheThird – 31.2/31.5/31.8/29.0/26.5

pimp – 32.2/32.4/30.9/28.8/25.1

PSSSHHHRRR87 – 37.4/35.1/29.2/24.2/19.3

Spud2Nique – 35.5/35.9/32.9/33.0/27.3

TheFuzz – 39.4/37.3/32.8/27.6/23.7

ViewsFromThe Squawk – 37.4/34.7/31.4/27.2/22.1

 

~lw3

[capstone21]

15 hours ago, Spud2Nique said:

Really? I think they will be the 6th or 7th seed in the west. I like the Bogut/Barnes chemistry brought over from GS...also they have a professional vet type team with Dirk n Deron n Wes Matthews...I think they will fight.

I think they have gotten old and injury prone ... I like Matthews but last season he took a major step back after injury (shooting sub .400 and slow on D) and not sure if he can regain his form ... Deron is a shell of that point guard who would compete with Chris Paul as the best pg in teh league ... Dirk .. he has got to decline at some point right??  right??  He baffles me how he is still this good.   Bogut is a walking injury ... Barnes is an unknown ... will he step up or is he hype?  Their bench is pretty lacking too ... I like Powell but maybe that is because he is Canadian ...

Who knows they might have great chemistry and Barnes becomes what is expected of that contract ... will find out very very soon.

 

[capstone21]

13 minutes ago, lethalweapon3 said:

((See prior post for a detailed explanation of SUM-MELO results))

 

 

 

 

 

Here are the top five teams in each forthcoming seasons, adding together the CARMELO estimates of Wins Above Replacement (WAR) for the 13 players on each Summer Dynasty League team to produce SUM-MELO scores.

 

2016-17 Season

 

 

 

1.       AHF – 49.3

 

 

2.       Buzzard – 47.6

3.       capstone21 – 45.3

4.       Alex – 41.9

5.       ATLHawks3 – 41.5

(Coincidentally, these above five teams are also the Top 5 in alphabetical order by Squawk GM.)

 

2017-18 Season

 

 

1.       Buzzard – 47.8

 

 

2.       AHF – 46.5

3.       capstone21 – 42.7

4.       Alex – 41.8

5.       lethalweapon3 – 40.2

(Buzzard’s and AHF’s are the only teams that remain among the Top 5 for the next five seasons. Buzzard takes over the top spot going forward, while AHF remains in second. Alex’s squad remains in the Top 4 for the next four seasons, and capstone21 vacates the Top 5 in 2019-20 before returning. Yours truly breaks into the Top 5 from this point forward.)

 

2018-19 Season

 

 

1.       Buzzard – 46.8

 

 

2.       AHF – 43.7

3.       (3rd - tie) Alex – 39.1

4.       (3rd - tie) lethalweapon3 – 39.1

5.       capstone21 – 37.8

 

 

(Although it was in the bottom tier, LucastheThird’s team was the only one to have an increase in SUM-MELO from Season 2 to Season 3. His team’s SUM-MELO score also rose between Season 1 and Season 2, along with Buzzard’s, JayBirdHawk’s, mine, pimp’s, and Spud2Nique’s.)

 

 

2019-20 Season

 

 

1.       Buzzard – 40.7

 

 

2.       AHF – 39.2

3.       lethalweapon3 – 35.4

4.       Alex – 33.9

5.       Spud2Nique – 33.0

(Spud2Nique makes an appearance in the Top 5 for this season. His team was the only one to have an increase in SUM-MELO between Season 3 and Season 4. Buzzard’s SUM-MELO only begins to make a noticeable drop in Season 4.)

 

2020-21 Season

 

 

 

1.       Buzzard – 36.7

 

 

2.       AHF – 35.1

3.       lethalweapon3 – 31.3

4.       HopefulHawksFan – 28.0

5.       capstone21 – 27.8

(HopefulHawksFan breaks into the Top 5 in this season. Her team’s 5-Year SUM-MELO decline was the second-lowest of all Summer Dynasty team’s, behind LucastheThird’s and just ahead of JayBirdHawk’s. h4wkfan finishes in sixth-place in four out of five seasons. His team would be among the Top 8 in every season, along with AHF’s, Alex’s, Buzzard’s, capstone’s, and mine.)

 

Best Rates of Decline over 5 Seasons

 

 

1.       LucastheThird – down 15.1%

 

 

2.       HopefulHawksFan – down 17.9%

3.       JayBirdHawk – down 18.0%

4.       lethalweapon3 – down 19.7%

5.       pimp – down 22.0%

 

5-Season SUM-MELO Scores by Team (2016-17 through 2020-21)

 

 

AHF – 49.3/46.5/43.7/39.2/35.1

Alex – 41.9/41.8/39.1/33.9/27.3

ATLHawks3 – 41.5/34.2/27.0/21.2/15.0

Buzzard – 47.6/47.8/46.8/40.7/36.7

capstone21 – 45.3/42.7/37.8/32.1/27.8

Diesel – 36.7/32.6/28.1/22.3/17.0

h4wkfan – 40.4/39.5/35.1/30.1/27.4

HopefulHawksFan – 34.1/33.6/31.3/30.3/28.0

JayBirdHawk – 31.7/33.1/31.8/30.1/26.0

lethalweapon3 – 39.0/40.2/39.1/35.4/31.3

LucastheThird – 31.2/31.5/31.8/29.0/26.5

pimp – 32.2/32.4/30.9/28.8/25.1

PSSSHHHRRR87 – 37.4/35.1/29.2/24.2/19.3

 

 

Spud2Nique – 35.5/35.9/32.9/33.0/27.3

TheFuzz – 39.4/37.3/32.8/27.6/23.7

ViewsFromThe Squawk – 37.4/34.7/31.4/27.2/22.1

 

 

 

~lw3

I always enjoy your posts

[Guest]

Looks like @Buzzard may be a huge fan of the CARMELO system :-) 

[Guest]

I'm wondering if the nba2k will be somewhat similar to the CARMELO system or vastly different. Hmmm

[lethalweapon3]

3 minutes ago, Spud2Nique said:

I'm wondering if the nba2k will be somewhat similar to the CARMELO system or vastly different. Hmmm

It'll be fun to see how much the 2K seedings vary.

~lw3

[capstone21]

18 minutes ago, Spud2Nique said:

Looks like @Buzzard may be a huge fan of the CARMELO system :-) 

Yup ... I guess it really thinks  Faried is that amazing defender that can cover up for Monroe/Parsons and El Matador himself   

[lethalweapon3]

Key to the Flocking Buzzards' sustained success are the CARMELO system's favorable prospects for two bigs... Joel Embiid and Jakob Poeltl... along with the long-term emergence of Wade Baldwin IV. If those things happen, it would offset the predicted declines for starter-quality players like Greg Monroe, Chandler Parsons, and Jrue Holiday.

Stars James Harden and John Wall are foreseen to experience only small declines while several role players (Jared Sullinger, Kyle Anderson, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist) are expected to have a similar impact in 2021 as they would provide in 2017.

~lw3