Let's talk the "ceiling" with this team

[Diesel]

5 minutes ago, Lurker said:

I suggest for you guys to take a stroll over to 82games.com, it DOES NOT paint the rosy picture you guys are attempting to paint for Kent Bazemore at small forward. And for me, he does not pass the eye test against any perimeter player that is bigger than him. Against guys his size, he's good defensively, against guys bigger, he's been overrated and will continue to be.

You're still running around here talking about on court off court numbers??  That's a false stat.

Look at DeMarr Derozen's?  

While Baze has slight differences in his on/off court stats, Derozen's show huge trends that the Rapts would be much better defensively if he didn't play.  Is he overrated too??

 

[gurpilo]

For me that is clear, I like Baze but we are making him play out of position, seems that is our more common fault, I hope Bud reacts and puts him at his position playing Thabo or Prince at the 3. 

That is why I fear Hardaway stepping up, That would be the perfect excuse to play Baze at the 3

[AHF]

2 minutes ago, Lurker said:

I suggest for you guys to take a stroll over to 82games.com, it DOES NOT paint the rosy picture you guys are attempting to paint for Kent Bazemore at small forward. And for me, he does not pass the eye test against any perimeter player that is bigger than him. Against guys his size, he's good defensively, against guys bigger, he's been overrated and will continue to be.

And Bud saying "The 2 and 3 are interchangeable in my system" is an excuse. It's an excuse that allows him to continue playing Kyle 30-32 mins a game when he shouldn't be.

I agree with you that Baze needs to be a 2 long-term, but for last year bear in mind that Bud had no alternatives he trusted.  He tried Patterson, THJr and Holiday and ended up running Korver into the ground until THJr had a good 6 weeks in March / April.  In the playoffs, it was back to "who else can I play?" minutes for Korver.  Coming off of surgery, Bud was somehow forced to play Korver almost 32 mpg to start the season last year because THJr was DNP-CD and Patterson / Holiday were clearly sub-NBA level.  He finished the season playing nearly 32 mpg in the playoffs for the same reason.  In both cases, it was Korver's worst season in years but Bud just had no other alternatives.

This year the addition of Prince and Bembry along with the hopefully continued improvements for THJr should mean a lot more options to limit Korver's minutes.  Hoping it also means more minutes for Baze at the 2.

[AHF]

Just now, Diesel said:

You're still running around here talking about on court off court numbers??  That's a false stat.

Look at DeMarr Derozen's?  

While Baze has slight differences in his on/off court stats, Derozen's show huge trends that the Rapts would be much better defensively if he didn't play.  Is he overrated too??

 

He is talking about Bazemore's stats as SG versus as a SF.

Opponents range up at 15.0 PER when matched up against Bazemore playing SG.  They rang up a 24.1 PER when he played SF.

Kawhi Leonard the last two seasons has put up a PER roughly equivalent to what all opponents did to Bazemore at SF.

In contrast, when Baze played shooting guard his opponents put up a PER worse than Jae Crowder.  

Kawhi >>>>> Jae

[Lurker]

1 minute ago, Diesel said:

You're still running around here talking about on court off court numbers??  That's a false stat.

Look at DeMarr Derozen's?  

While Baze has slight differences in his on/off court stats, Derozen's show huge trends that the Rapts would be much better defensively if he didn't play.  Is he overrated too??

 

It ain't slight with what I'm quoting.

http://www.82games.com/1516/15ATL6.HTM

It's drastic and from my eye test, these analytics are 100% correct. When Bazemore is the SF, the Hawks often DID get ran off of the court. The reason they came back a lot of times was because of the bench.

And here's the 82games on DeRozan.

http://www.82games.com/1516/15TOR5.HTM

It's much, much better.

[gurpilo]

hace 8 minutos, Lurker dijo:

It ain't slight with what I'm quoting.

http://www.82games.com/1516/15ATL6.HTM

It's drastic and from my eye test, these analytics are 100% correct. When Bazemore is the SF, the Hawks often DID get ran off of the court. The reason they came back a lot of times was because of the bench.

And here's the 82games on DeRozan.

http://www.82games.com/1516/15TOR5.HTM

It's much, much better.

Well, that finish the discussion, surprised to see Derozan defensive stats are about the same as Bazemore's

[lethalweapon3]

One thing I'll warn w.r.t. 82games, which I do love, is that it often skews the position values based on its preset assumptions, rather than what was happening on the floor. I'll note that in Baze's case, 82games assumes that Bazemore sopped up 50% of available Hawks minutes in 2015-16 at shooting guard, and 2% of available Hawks minutes at small forward.

When you look at the (Top 20) 5 Man Units including Kent, listed in order of minutes played, the only time Bazemore is listed as the SF is in the dreaded "Schröder-Teague" double backcourt lineup, a total of 41 minutes in that specific 5-man unit. As we know, for that backcourt pairing alone, anybody on the floor with Jeff 'n Dennis together suffered, at least plus-minus wise. In ALL other scenarios listed among the other 19 5-man units (a total of just under 1600 minutes), Bazemore is assumed to be playing at SG while Korver/Sefolosha/Junior are assumed by 82games to be in the SF role. 

The resulting data is based on 82games' assumption of Bazemore (assuming there were more 5-Man combos lightly used by ATL of less than 18 minutes this season) playing not much more than 45 minutes the entire season at SF (the position where he made most of his 68 starts), yet over 20 minutes per game at SG. Thus, the Grain of Salt to apply here to 82games' position-specific stats on Baze could support a really nice margarita stand.

Even just taking the top 2 5-Man Units for Baze (in terms of minutes played) doesn't tell the full story. Korver was among the Eastern Conference's leaders in plus/minus (for whatever that's worth), and well ahead of all teammates. The difference between, as listed by 82games, Jeff-Baze-Kyle-Paul-Al (+104, win% of 54%) and Jeff-Baze-Thabo-Paul-Al (-62, win% of 40%) is the replacement of Kyle with Thabo in the lineup. If one presumes Thabo came in often to play the SF and to slide Baze, who we know was the real starting SF and not Kyle, up to SG, then it doesn't reinforce the supposition that Baze performed better in heavily-used lineups as the SG.

Same situation unfolds under lesser minutes when you take the 3rd-most utilized 5-Man of Dennis-Baze-Kyle-Paul-Al (+35, 10-4 record) and simply replace Kyle with Thabo (-21, 4-9 record). If Thabo is shifting Baze to SG, Baze looks better at SF. Not saying it's definitively true, but it shows how 82games' position summaries are based on muddled assumptions.

I haven't bothered to, but definitely take a look at NBA's stats setup to see if the position assumptions are closer to the reality of the season that unfolded.

~lw3

[gurpilo]

Taking a look to this reinforces some ideas I had, Milsap is effective playing the 3, more than at4?? Horford is more effective at 4, Teague did a good job at PG, slightly better than Dennis and surprisingly decent stats by Thabo. Korver did better defensively at the 3 than Baze..

[Diesel]

46 minutes ago, Lurker said:

It ain't slight with what I'm quoting.

http://www.82games.com/1516/15ATL6.HTM

It's drastic and from my eye test, these analytics are 100% correct. When Bazemore is the SF, the Hawks often DID get ran off of the court. The reason they came back a lot of times was because of the bench.

And here's the 82games on DeRozan.

http://www.82games.com/1516/15TOR5.HTM

It's much, much better.

You're talking about this:

[table]

Position	Min	Net Pts	Off	Def	Net48	W	L	Win%
PG	0%	-11	89.2	159.3	-70.1	2	6	25%
SG	50%	+121	102.6	99.6	2.9	44	30	59%
SF	2%	-35	92.0	110.8	-18.8	5	11	31%
PF	0%	0	.0	.0	.0			0%
C

[/table]

Did you note that the SF position was given 2%??

 

[lethalweapon3]

6 minutes ago, Diesel said:

You're talking about this:

[table]

Position	Min	Net Pts	Off	Def	Net48	W	L	Win%
PG	0%	-11	89.2	159.3	-70.1	2	6	25%
SG	50%	+121	102.6	99.6	2.9	44	30	59%
SF	2%	-35	92.0	110.8	-18.8	5	11	31%
PF	0%	0	.0	.0	.0			0%
C

[/table]

Did you note that the SF position was given 2%??

 

Just finished elaborating on those flaws above. Essentially, 82games assumed Baze was an SF only when obvious point guards were playing (in tandem, together) with him, otherwise the majority of his stats are lumped together as SG. I'm gonna go check out NBA.com to see if there's anything more discernible.

~lw3

[AHF]

I'm going to chime in by eye test and say I like Baze much better guarding 2's than 3's.  Agree that the 82games data looks flawed.  I can't wait to see Baze/Prince, Korver/Thabo, THJr/Bembry.  I assume that is not how the season will start and that we'll see it start the same way it ended: Korver/Baze.

[lethalweapon3]

So, digging around the 5-Man Lineups at NBA.com. The Dot Com doesn't bother with trying to specify who plays which position (last names are placed alphabetically) in a lineup.

The starting unit of Baze-Al-Kyle-Sap-Jeff (again, last names alphabetical) is attributed the lion's share of minutes (70 GP, 12.7 mins/game) and that unit finished with a plus-minus of +1.5, opponents shooting 43.3 FG% (35.0 3FG%). I assume everyone can agree that Baze served at SF in almost every time that 5-Man unit was deployed, starting or otherwise.

The 5-Man of Baze-Al-Sap-Thabo-Jeff was the second most-utilized lineup involving Kent (44 GP, 2.4 mins/game), and that unit finished with a plus-minus of -1.4, opponent FG% of 48.0 FG% (39.7 3FG%). If you take the leap that Thabo's insertion shifted Kent, more often than not, to SG, then this lineup performed less effectively than the starting unit.

Even if it isn't the most sound assumption (non-equivalent minutes; team dynamics involving the other three players on the floor, etc.), it's on a stronger foundation than any that assumes Kent played more at SG than at SF last season by a ratio of 40 minutes to 1.

Baze-Al-Kyle-Sap-Dennis (17 GP, 4.3 mins/game): plus-minus of +2.2; 42.2 opponent FG% and 32.1 opponent 3FG%

Baze-Al-Sap-Dennis-Thabo (18 GP, 1.4 mins/game): plus-minus of -1.3; 49.1 opponent FG% and 28.6 opponent 3FG%  

All said, I do want to see Kent play more effectively at SG, but last season's stats don't support arguments that shifting him to the 2-spot from his starting position was already effective.

http://stats.nba.com/league/lineups/#!/?Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular Season&TeamID=1610612737&sort=GP&dir=1&CF=GROUP_NAME*E*Bazemore

http://stats.nba.com/league/lineups/#!/opponent/?Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular Season&TeamID=1610612737&sort=GP&dir=1&CF=GROUP_NAME*E*Bazemore

(^re: second link, noting the plus-minus on the opponent stats flip from + to -, and vice versa, to reflect the opponent's plus-minus, and not the team's)

~lw3

[red2play]

If you ONLY compare us to GS and Cavs then our ceiling might not be that high but if Prince turns out like J Butler (which I think he has the potential to be )  And schröder turns out to be better than Teague, then we would be that third power team.  SA without Duncan or Parker (age) isn't in that tier anymore and next yr if Durant leaves GS, then we would have a shot at a title, assuming Howard doesn't decline.

[benhillboy]

16 minutes ago, red2play said:

...but if Prince turns out like J Butler (which I think he has the potential to be ) ...

I thought I was tripping when I saw traces of Butler watching Prince in the Summer.  Has 3 size but glides around the floor like a 2 with no regard for his body.  He's the perfect template for Prince.  I'm a Butler fan, I'd be ecstatic if he were comparable in 3 years.  Hell, give me Steven Jackson-like play and I'm good.

But back to the team's ceiling, hell if I know.  This is a weird chemistry mix after signifigant roster turnover with no shortage of injury concerns and recoveries.

Edited July 26, 2016 by benhillboy

[RedDawg#8]

We are the 2nd best team in the East in my eyes. We were last year too if we didn't sleepwalk through the first quarter of most games. The Cavs can be beaten. they aren't unstoppable, I just don't see us being able to beat them with the wings matched up the way they are. Some blame rebounding, some blame shooting, whatever. They beat us in a number of different ways each loss. Games 2 they got hot from 3, game three it was rebounding, games 1 and 4 we were up late and just didn't have a guy that could close the game out for us down the stretch. But they did.

Make no mistake. This is all about CLE. They kept us away from our destiny in 2015 and followed it up with an encore in 2016, As long as Lebron is in the East his team holds the key to the gates of the Finals. We can dominate 28 other teams but if we do not figure out how to beat him and his cronies come playoff time none of that matters. We have to build this team around an identity and philosophy that can unseat the King.  We had it in 2015. Team ball vs Hero ball. Well guess what, the King took notes. Offensively they share the ball in the half court and find the open man just like we do. They have shooters everywhere. We have Kyle, and HAD Al. We cant sit on our team ball perch looking down on the league anymore. The NBA caught on and caught up.

That's why I am such an advocate of letting go of this "Kyle spaces the floor" mentality. It works against the Celtics, not against the Cavs [see above why this is important]. Pace and Space were the name of the game. Space is cool but without the pace it becomes hot potato with the ball until we either jack up a 3 pointer, go for a contested layup, or flat put turn the ball over.  

Pace comes from transition. Transition comes from defensive stops AND rebounds. If we cant get those then it doesn't matter who is on the floor cuz there is gonna be a hand in their face. We have had top defenses the last couple of seasons. I'm an advocate of creating the leagues most dominating defense since the 08 Celtics or even the 04 Pistons. We have the personnel. We have the coaching. We just need to commit to the identity. Embrace the grittiness of a Dennis Schröder. Let Paul go back to being a rebounding monster. Let Dwight goaltend one shot every game just to send a message to the other team. Defense can still win you a championship. All these star laden squads don't like to get their hands dirty and be hit in the mouth. Lets be the team that hits first and last and stop being the guys that get pushed around and complain to the refs about it.

 

If we were to embrace our defensive potential and really go for that identity I can see our ceiling climb a lot higher than just waiting to be eliminated by Lebron . . . again. 

until then its Cleveland, and then everybody else, and we can only hope to be the best of the "others"

 

[Thomas]

Whenever Bud is comfortable playing Baze big minutes at the two is when I think our ceiling may become more clear and a possible ECF series. The three point percentage of Baze is really important so banking on his continued improvement there. Hopefully our SF position has fallen into place by midseason with Prince earning plenty of minutes. The defense in the paint is ready for some big games. 

[benhillboy]

7 hours ago, RedDawg#8 said:

We are the 2nd best team in the East in my eyes. We were last year too if we didn't sleepwalk through the first quarter of most games. The Cavs can be beaten. they aren't unstoppable, I just don't see us being able to beat them with the wings matched up the way they are. Some blame rebounding, some blame shooting, whatever. They beat us in a number of different ways each loss. Games 2 they got hot from 3, game three it was rebounding, games 1 and 4 we were up late and just didn't have a guy that could close the game out for us down the stretch. But they did.

Make no mistake. This is all about CLE. They kept us away from our destiny in 2015 and followed it up with an encore in 2016, As long as Lebron is in the East his team holds the key to the gates of the Finals. We can dominate 28 other teams but if we do not figure out how to beat him and his cronies come playoff time none of that matters. We have to build this team around an identity and philosophy that can unseat the King.  We had it in 2015. Team ball vs Hero ball. Well guess what, the King took notes. Offensively they share the ball in the half court and find the open man just like we do. They have shooters everywhere. We have Kyle, and HAD Al. We cant sit on our team ball perch looking down on the league anymore. The NBA caught on and caught up.

That's why I am such an advocate of letting go of this "Kyle spaces the floor" mentality. It works against the Celtics, not against the Cavs [see above why this is important]. Pace and Space were the name of the game. Space is cool but without the pace it becomes hot potato with the ball until we either jack up a 3 pointer, go for a contested layup, or flat put turn the ball over.  

Pace comes from transition. Transition comes from defensive stops AND rebounds. If we cant get those then it doesn't matter who is on the floor cuz there is gonna be a hand in their face. We have had top defenses the last couple of seasons. I'm an advocate of creating the leagues most dominating defense since the 08 Celtics or even the 04 Pistons. We have the personnel. We have the coaching. We just need to commit to the identity. Embrace the grittiness of a Dennis Schröder. Let Paul go back to being a rebounding monster. Let Dwight goaltend one shot every game just to send a message to the other team. Defense can still win you a championship. All these star laden squads don't like to get their hands dirty and be hit in the mouth. Lets be the team that hits first and last and stop being the guys that get pushed around and complain to the refs about it.

 

If we were to embrace our defensive potential and really go for that identity I can see our ceiling climb a lot higher than just waiting to be eliminated by Lebron . . . again. 

until then its Cleveland, and then everybody else, and we can only hope to be the best of the "others"

 

Being a top-tier defense doesn't mean as much as it used to.  I didn't even know the Hawks were #1 in the league in FG% against.  You gotta drop down 12 slots to find the eventual NBA champion.

I thought there was a "formula" versus LeBron.  After this past Finals, I don't anymore.  When he's hitting the glass hard there isn't anything the new-look Warriors, Spurs, or Pacers can do about it.  

Dwight will help no doubt and Hump is an excellent offensive glass man, but rebounding is a total team effort.  If Dennis can average 5 and the rest of the guards follow his lead, we have a glimmer of hope.  I also thought we had a punchers chance to win and didn't question the competitiveness of our squad versus the Cavs the past two seasons so maybe I'm just ignorant.  

Never has a team showed me that the increase of intensity in the playoffs is a tangible object more than the Hawks.  To fall flat on their faces two years straight to the same team is just mindboggling with a top-flight coach.

Edited July 26, 2016 by benhillboy

[Diesel]

31 minutes ago, Thomas said:

Whenever Bud is comfortable playing Baze big minutes at the two is when I think our ceiling may become more clear and a possible ECF series. The three point percentage of Baze is really important so banking on his continued improvement there. Hopefully our SF position has fallen into place by midseason with Prince earning plenty of minutes. The defense in the paint is ready for some big games. 

How would you know if Baze is playing the 2?  When we put Baze and Korver on the floor as our 2 and 3, Baze is playing the 2.   However, Baze is also going to defend the best Wing the other team has.   I think we get so caught up on position position position that what we fail to see is that our 2 and 3 are interchangable.   They both have the same function in the offense.    Would we like a big 3.  Sure.   Would we like to have a big three who plays dynamic defense.  Sure.  However, when you put Thabo in for Korver, doesn't he come in and play the 3?   The difference is that Thabo is a better defender than Baze so Baze's assignment changes and Thabo takes on the better player.  Interchangable. 

Alot of you are of the belief that Bembry and Prince have come to be our savior at the Sf.   I say.. Not yet.  Not this year.   They both are new enrollees into Bud University.   What you should do is get ready to see the foursome of Baze, Thabo, Korver, and THJr out on the floor in rotation as needed.   The thing is that Dwight Howard gives us the Help underneath that means that our wings don't have to cover for rebounds and really can play more loose on the wings.    I think you all missed the defensive upgrade that Dw8 gives us.     That means that when it comes to our wing play, it's all about offensive need.   I think at all times, there will be somebody on the floor who can nail a three pointer.  Baze may be the guy who becomes a Ginobili driver... however, we will still have guys on the court who can hit a three... 

 

 

[macdaddy]

14 hours ago, lethalweapon3 said:

So, digging around the 5-Man Lineups at NBA.com. The Dot Com doesn't bother with trying to specify who plays which position (last names are placed alphabetically) in a lineup.

The starting unit of Baze-Al-Kyle-Sap-Jeff (again, last names alphabetical) is attributed the lion's share of minutes (70 GP, 12.7 mins/game) and that unit finished with a plus-minus of +1.5, opponents shooting 43.3 FG% (35.0 3FG%). I assume everyone can agree that Baze served at SF in almost every time that 5-Man unit was deployed, starting or otherwise.

The 5-Man of Baze-Al-Sap-Thabo-Jeff was the second most-utilized lineup involving Kent (44 GP, 2.4 mins/game), and that unit finished with a plus-minus of -1.4, opponent FG% of 48.0 FG% (39.7 3FG%). If you take the leap that Thabo's insertion shifted Kent, more often than not, to SG, then this lineup performed less effectively than the starting unit.

Even if it isn't the most sound assumption (non-equivalent minutes; team dynamics involving the other three players on the floor, etc.), it's on a stronger foundation than any that assumes Kent played more at SG than at SF last season by a ratio of 40 minutes to 1.

Baze-Al-Kyle-Sap-Dennis (17 GP, 4.3 mins/game): plus-minus of +2.2; 42.2 opponent FG% and 32.1 opponent 3FG%

Baze-Al-Sap-Dennis-Thabo (18 GP, 1.4 mins/game): plus-minus of -1.3; 49.1 opponent FG% and 28.6 opponent 3FG%  

All said, I do want to see Kent play more effectively at SG, but last season's stats don't support arguments that shifting him to the 2-spot from his starting position was already effective.

http://stats.nba.com/league/lineups/#!/?Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular Season&TeamID=1610612737&sort=GP&dir=1&CF=GROUP_NAME*E*Bazemore

http://stats.nba.com/league/lineups/#!/opponent/?Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular Season&TeamID=1610612737&sort=GP&dir=1&CF=GROUP_NAME*E*Bazemore

(^re: second link, noting the plus-minus on the opponent stats flip from + to -, and vice versa, to reflect the opponent's plus-minus, and not the team's)

~lw3

I, like a lot of folks, feel like Baze would be a good 2 but he played the 3 for Bud more often than not because the numbers back it up.  

[AHF]

7 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

I, like a lot of folks, feel like Baze would be a good 2 but he played the 3 for Bud more often than not because the numbers back it up.  

He played 3 because we had nothing but SGs as alternatives.  He was the best SG to fit into the SF slot.  Korver, THJr, Patterson, Holiday, etc. are all largely incapable of playing the 3 for various reasons.  There simply was no alternative with Thabo needing his minutes capped and being as limited as he is offensively.