ESPN Insider Request:5-on-5 predictions

[SalvorMallow]

Could someone with ESPN insider please post this article?

 

http://insider.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/17815008/atlanta-hawks-5-5-preview-dwight-howard-paul-millsap-dennis-Schröder-more-nba

 

Thanks!

[JTB]

It's rather disappointing but here ya go! ...I should have stopped reading when I saw all the bad comments about Dennis defense you can tell none of these eggperts watch the Hawks.

 

 

5-on-5 predictions: Will Hawks contend in East? Trade Millsap?

 

Our NBA Insiders answer the big questions for the Hawks in 2016-17. Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

10:30 AM CT

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Are the Hawks built for a playoff run? What trades should they make?

Our NBA Insiders preview Atlanta's 2016-17 season.

 

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1. What do you expect from Dwight Howard this season?

Kevin Arnovitz, ESPN.com: Excellent interior defense and rebounding, a solid option to pressure the defense in the pick-and-roll, but not much else that will distinguish him in a league where an ascending class of young, versatile big men (Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins, Andre Drummond, Kristaps Porzingis, et al.) is on the rise and where centers are required to defend in space.

On the periphery, Howard is a player who has rarely inspired teammates and only occasionally makes them better -- but perhaps that's not his job in Atlanta.

Projections

How will the Atlanta Hawks do this season? Here are our projections using ESPN's real plus-minus and Summer Forecast.

RPM
East standing: No. 7
Wins: 39.1

Summer Forecast
East standing: No. 6
Record: 44-38

Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Insider: I don't expect much to be different. He will help them on the boards and provide a high-level roll man for point guard Dennis Schröder. But Howard isn't as explosive as he once was, and he never developed a good enough post game to be a No. 1 offensive option in this diminished state. He's still a good player, just no longer elite.

Amin Elhassan, ESPN Insider: Two conflicting forces are at work: On the one hand, Howard has always thrived when he has felt appreciated, loved and, most of all, involved in the offense. Past coaches like Stan Van Gundy and Kevin McHale knew the value of getting Howard post touches early -- not because that was a particularly sound basketball play, but because making Howard feel good would lead to better play in other aspects of his game.

Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer has at his disposal a variety of options within his playbook that can satisfy this need, and in turn Howard can provide something the Hawks have been lacking: above-the-rim play on both ends of the floor.

On the other hand, Father Time is very real, and very undefeated. Howard has been on a steady decline since he left Orlando, and the effects of multiple injuries have robbed him of his superhuman athleticism (he is merely athletic at a more human level now). All of that is to say: Expect Howard to be happy and effective, but don't expect gaudy stats.

Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider: Howard has played really well in preseason, scoring 47 points on 33 shots. While one shouldn't overvalue preseason stats, that shows he is healthy and his teammates are finding him. The Hawks generally feature better ball movement than the Rockets, and forward Paul Millsap should be a great fit next to Howard, so I expect an up year.

Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: Slightly better performance than last season, but nothing approaching his prime play. Howard is nearing 31 years of age, and he has dealt with knee and back injuries, so it's unrealistic to think his downturn in Houston was strictly a matter of chemistry with James Harden. On the plus side, Howard has looked more explosive in the preseason, and we have seen him turn back the clock as recently as the 2015 postseason.

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2. What do you expect from Dennis Schröder this season?

Arnovitz: Schröder will attack opposing defenses for 36 minutes per night -- sometimes to a devastating effect, and sometimes to the bemusement of teammates, coaches and fans.

The Hawks have been weighing Schröder's capacity to lead the team for the better part of two seasons, and that discussion has usually revolved around his judgment. But his defense and rebounding are also question marks that, if unaddressed, could hurt the Hawks far more than a handful of head-scratching turnovers each night.

Doolittle: Mistakes interspersed with flashes of brilliance. Being a starter means he will be the focus of more opposing game plans, and his inconsistency as a shooter might be exposed.

He will have to improve on defense as well. The Hawks will have to be patient with Schröder and stay with him even if it appears they function better with Jarrett Jack.

Elhassan: I think Schröder has the profile of a backup guard: a gifted offensive player who is aggressive, but for whom playmaking for others is not a top priority -- and someone who is not as concerned with defense as he could be.

Without any real alternative PG solutions in Atlanta, Schröder is going to be forced to either grow into something he has never been or -- more likely -- become a more exaggerated version of what he already is.

As we noted on a recent TrueHoop podcast, Schröder will probably be a front-runner for Most Improved Player because it generally rewards players who increase their scoring solely due to an increase in playing time.

Engelmann: Schröder took one of the biggest leaps in real plus-minus (RPM) last season, improving from -3.7 to 0.6. He probably won't be able to make a jump of similar magnitude this season, but I still expect him to be one of the top five point guards in the Eastern Conference.

Pelton: To win Most Improved Player. Schröder has a great opportunity at the controls of an offense that is designed to showcase its point guard. I would expect his per-game stats to jump with increased minutes as a starter.

However, his value will be determined more by his reliability as a decision maker, particularly late in close games.

How will Dennis Schröder do as Atlanta's starting point guard this year? Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

3. What is the biggest issue facing the Hawks this season?

Arnovitz: Who are the Hawks? Is the Schröder-Howard pick-and-roll now the backbone of a team that for years used motion offense, defensive discipline, spacing, smart shot selection and finesse to define its nightly mission? Will the change in personnel and an aging core be able to maintain its second-ranked defense? What exactly will this team do exceptionally well this season?

Elhassan: The dearth of playmaking across the roster as a whole. Atlanta lost two of its best passers in Jeff Teague and Al Horford, and while Schröder and Howard have their own charms, a willingness to pass with vision and anticipation aren't part of that list.

Also, Horford's perimeter shooting allowed Atlanta to run a true five-out system. Replacing him with Howard, who operates almost exclusively block-to-block, will affect spacing on the floor

 

• Doolittle: It feels like losing Horford and replacing him with Howard takes away from what made the Hawks special the past couple of years. More than anything, they have to re-establish what identity they will bring to the court on a nightly basis 

Engelmann: The Hawks were already ranked near the bottom (worst) in turnover percentage last season. With Schröder (4.1 turnovers per 36 minutes) moving into the starting lineup -- and adding the turnover-prone Howard -- they might have the highest turnover rate in the league.

Pelton: Age. Three starters (Howard, Kyle Korver and Millsap) are on the wrong side of 30, and it's possible they perform much worse than expected as a result. Since there are a handful of other players in their 30s on the bench, I project Atlanta as the league's sixth-oldest team in terms of age weighted by minutes played.

---

4. What trade makes the most sense for the Hawks?

Arnovitz: At some point, the Hawks will have to weigh moving Millsap, whom they considered trading last summer. Millsap is entering the final year of his contract (he will almost certainly exercise his opt-out clause), he will be 32 before the All-Star break and he will demand a hefty raise next summer.

If the Hawks aren't contending, it might be wise to get value for a guy they're unlikely to retain long-term.

Elhassan: For my money, upgrading point guard would be a top priority. Armed with a couple of expiring deals (not to mention Schröder himself), the Hawks could conceivably put something together to entice a trade partner into dealing.

Doolittle: If it turns out that Atlanta is on a bridge from one version of itself to another, then moving Kyle Korver could bring back a good, cost-controlled prospect.

Engelmann: This season, I would probably stand pat -- wait and see how the new parts are working together. Over the long-term, the Hawks will probably have to find a replacement for Korver, who is 35. They own a 2018 first-rounder from Minnesota (if the Wolves make the playoffs that year). The Hawks might want to flip that pick for a wing shooter.

Pelton: Ask again as we get near the trade deadline. By then, we'll know whether the Hawks should consider trading away impending free agents like Korver and Millsap to begin the process of getting younger. For now, patience should prevail.

---

5. Fact or Fiction: The Hawks will make the Eastern Conference semifinals.

Arnovitz: Fiction. The Hawks have improved their lot as a franchise in recent years -- with better ownership, serious investment in organizational infrastructure and a strong coaching staff. But right now, they sit at a way station between their savvy 60-win veteran campaign and whatever lies ahead. The roster as currently constituted isn't equipped to contend.

Doolittle: Fiction. They are another one of those mid-tier teams clumped together in the East, but for the Hawks, that's moving in the wrong direction. They aren't likely to make it past the first round with this squad.

Engelmann: 50/50. I think it's between the Hawks and Pistons to grab the fourth spot. Even if the Pistons end up with home-court advantage, I like the Hawks' chances to pull off an upset because they are more experienced.

Elhassan: Sure, the Hawks are certainly good enough to win one round in the playoffs again, as I expect them to be about the No. 4 or No. 5 seed. But this team isn't as good as past incarnations, and while the middle and bottom of the Eastern Conference playoff picture remain mediocre at best, the top -- Cleveland, Boston, Toronto -- has separated itself from the pack.

Pelton: Fiction. Budenholzer has earned the benefit of the doubt by this point, but based on the talent on hand, I would say the lottery is a more likely outcome than a trip to the second round.

Edited October 18, 2016 by JTB

[RandomFan]

Buncha morons.

[rd79]

lol,  Amin Elhassan is even suggesting a trade for a PG and mentions Dennis as an expiring asset to trade. They seem to think Bud is an idiot...

[Gray Mule]

Pelton:  "I would say the lottery is a more likely outcome than a trip to the second round."

I keep hearing that Atlanta is probably lottery bound.  I continue to hear that the aged center

and other very old players on the roster will be unable to play a lot of minutes.  This leads to

the question, "Are the bench players so poor that they will be of little help?"

Apparently, the Hawks insulted their own great, young all star center and then replaced him with

this old, over the hill, usually too injured to play, used up center. 

I'll admit, Hawks will miss having a center that could hit the three point shot.  He's doing this with

his new team and they are so happy.  Good for them.

Did you notice all the good things that these "experts" said about the Atlanta rookie crop?  I didn't either.

Apparently, in their eyes, they make no difference.  They recommend that we trade Dennis and  Paul

for a starting PG since we lost our all star.

This is exciting writing!  Thanks for posting.  Bookmark this so we can revisit later.

GO LOTTERY BOUND HAWKS !!

[macdaddy]

9 hours ago, JTB said:

hile the middle and bottom of the Eastern Conference playoff picture remain mediocre at best, the top -- Cleveland, Boston, Toronto -- has separated itself from the pack.

This is straight up BS.   Toronto is going to return to reality this year just like we did last and Boston hasn't even WON A FRIGGIN PLAYOFF SERIES.   Saying that Boston and Toronto have separated themselves from the pack is just straight up stupid because the statement is based on nothing.    It's frustrating as hell for a hawks fan but geez if I was a Cavs fan I'd be super pissed to be getting lumped in with those pretenders after two straight trips to the finals.   

I don't know if i can even read the Boston one and hear how great and youthful Al is.   And the idea that Al shooting 3s was good for us flys in the face of actual facts, like a huge drop off in 3p%, terrible rebounding, double digit drop in wins.   

[AUhawksfan]

9 hours ago, JTB said:

Elhassan: I think Schröder has the profile of a backup guard: a gifted offensive player who is aggressive, but for whom playmaking for others is not a top priority -- and someone who is not as concerned with defense as he could be.

Seriously?  This is when I stopped reading.

[macdaddy]

6 minutes ago, AUhawksfan said:

Seriously?  This is when I stopped reading.

And the downgrading his playmaking.   His per36 assists  where better than Teague's.  In fact he was in the top 10 in the league in per36 assists, ahead of Teague, Reggie Jackson, Brandon Jennings,  Conley, Lillard, Parker.   

[Guest]

I'm not even upset, it's what i expect. They have ALWAYS been wrong, check the last 5 years - they are not CREDIBLE.

[macdaddy]

1 minute ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I'm not even upset, it's what i expect. They have ALWAYS been wrong, check the last 5 years - they are not CREDIBLE.

The problem for me is that it has huge consequences.   Teams like Boston get their reputation undeservedly boosted which affects fan interest, national tv appearances, and player attitudes toward the franchise while keeping teams of equal quality relegated to second class citizen status.     Given the way it is I can't really blame Al for leaving (well i can).   If Al plays well in Boston it will not only make his career look 1000 times better than if he'd hung around here but his future earning potential will be way more.   

[EazyRoc]

I can't believe they think we won't make it out of the first round of the playoffs. I will be disappointed if we don't make the ECF. By improving our rebounding and getting a top finisher at the basket will be a very big deal in the playoffs. We've always struggled when jumpers weren't falling. At least we have a very good rebounder to give us second chances and someone that can finish in close. I hope we get Boston in the first round and sweep them.

[macdaddy]

11 minutes ago, EazyRoc said:

I can't believe they think we won't make it out of the first round of the playoffs. I will be disappointed if we don't make the ECF. By improving our rebounding and getting a top finisher at the basket will be a very big deal in the playoffs. We've always struggled when jumpers weren't falling. At least we have a very good rebounder to give us second chances and someone that can finish in close. I hope we get Boston in the first round and sweep them.

It's also interesting that little is being made of Dwight's return to the East.   There aren't nearly as many teams in the East who can neutralize his presence as in the West.   

[aali34]

Quote

Schröder and Howard have their own charms, a willingness to pass with vision and anticipation aren't part of that list.

When will these people realize that Dennis was required to score rather than facilitate when he was on the bench? Isn't that what you want from your sixth man?

Also, his vision and creativity are much better than Jeff Teagues and might be one of the best in the east after Rondo and Wall

[AHF]

I like how defense and rebounding at PG are suddenly an issue when Dennis was clearly better on D than Jeff and Dennis was a significantly better rebounder than Jeff as well.  As others have noted, Dennis also had a higher assist% and assist per 36.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, macdaddy said:

This is straight up BS.   Toronto is going to return to reality this year just like we did last and Boston hasn't even WON A FRIGGIN PLAYOFF SERIES.   Saying that Boston and Toronto have separated themselves from the pack is just straight up stupid because the statement is based on nothing.    It's frustrating as hell for a hawks fan but geez if I was a Cavs fan I'd be super pissed to be getting lumped in with those pretenders after two straight trips to the finals.   

I don't know if i can even read the Boston one and hear how great and youthful Al is.   And the idea that Al shooting 3s was good for us flys in the face of actual facts, like a huge drop off in 3p%, terrible rebounding, double digit drop in wins.   

Take a breath, macd!  You on fiyah though.  Agree on all counts.

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I'm not even upset, it's what i expect. They have ALWAYS been wrong, check the last 5 years - they are not CREDIBLE.

So you're saying they're ... incredible? 

1 minute ago, aali34 said:

When will these people realize that Dennis was required to score rather than facilitate when he was on the bench? Isn't that what you want from your sixth man?

Also, his vision and creativity are much better than Jeff Teagues and might be one of the best in the east after Rondo and Wall

Wait, you're asking them to do some actual homework?  Silly rabbit.

I legitimately thought El Hassan was @lethalweapon3 for a while.  After reading this drivel, I'm sure I was wrong.  Either that or he purposely put that nonsense in this report to throw me off the trail .... yeah, that makes more sense than him actually believing we'd commit to Dennis over Jeff only to subsequently trade him this season.  Yeah, I'm onto you lw.  It's only a matter of time.

Seriously though, I'm putting it out there as a P.S.A. - Do not, not now/not ever, go to BSPN for any actual Hawk-related analysis.  Only go there if there's a game on and they have the exclusive broadcast.  Even then, put it on mute (unless Hubie's doing the game, and even then, be prepared to mute all of Jon Barry's nonsensical analysis {emphasis on anal 'cause it's all doo-doo}).  Don't even go there for stats as they're now in the business of making up rando stats to support their opinions on players/teams.

@JTB this is strike 1 for you, sir.  That's right, we're killing the messengers from now on.  Don't bring their nonsense here.  You're upsetting the sensibilities of our more impressionable squawkers.  Just wait til our west coasters wake up.  It's gonna be pandemonium.  @SalvorMallow gets a warning and a stern talking-to.

[Sothron]

We should be fine as long as we stay healthy.

[Dejay]

I would say that I'm shocked by these predictions, but...

Edited October 18, 2016 by Dejay

[macdaddy]

USA today a little more optimistic

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nba/hawks/2016/10/18/atlanta-hawks-watchability-dwight-howard-paul-millsap/91165486/

 

Quote

Watchability ranking: 19th

What’s different? In comes Dwight Howard, out goes Al Horford. While the latter is the better all-around player at this stage, Howard could be a pleasant surprise for his hometown Hawks. Jeff Teague was sent to Indiana, so Dennis Schröder has the keys to the offense as he enters his fourth NBA season with 16 starts under his belt.

Superman returns? While the fate of a franchise is never as simple as one player, a large portion of the Hawks’ future rests on Howard’s shoulders. He’s not the perennial All-NBA center that he once was, but he's still one of the most gifted big men in the league. Could a change of scenery reignite his career? Or will he continue the downward spiral that began in Orlando and continued with the Los Angeles Lakers andHouston Rockets? Either way, Howard and the Hawks should be on the radar.

The rookies: Taurean Prince and DeAndre Bembry — Atlanta’s 12th and 21st draft picks — are both NBA-ready players with the necessary tools to earn playing time right away. With a 6-8 frame and three-and-D capabilities, Prince could thrive in a role similar to the one DeMarre Carroll had two seasons ago, while Bembry’s combination of passing, athleticism and basketball IQ should fit right in with coach Mike Budenholzer’s system.

Taurean Prince poses during media day in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo: Kevin C. Cox, Getty Images)

 

The $70 million man: If you haven’t heard much about Kent Bazemore — an undrafted, 27-year-old swingman whose claim to fame was a 23-game stint with the Lakers in the 2013-14 season — now’s the time to start listening. After working his way into the starting lineup last year, he emerged as an all-around asset for Atlanta as the team’s fourth scoring option behind Paul Millsap, Teague and Horford, and he was compensated accordingly this summer. He averaged 11.6 points, 5.1 rebounds, 2.3 assists and made 1.5 three-pointers a game, shooting at 35.7%.

PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP

(Statistics from 2015-16 season)

 

• Dennis Schröder - Points: 11.0, assists: 4.4, rebounds: 2.6, steals: 0.9, field goal percentage: 42.1%
• Kyle Korver - Points: 9.2, rebounds: 3.3, assists: 2.1, steals: 0.8, field goal percentage: 43.5%
• Kent Bazemore - Points: 11.6, rebounds: 5.1, assists: 2.3, steals: 1.3, field goal percentage: 44.1%
• Paul Millsap - Points: 17.1, rebounds: 9.0, assists: 3.3, blocks: 1.7, field goal percentage: 47.0%
• Dwight Howard (with Houston) - Points: 13.7, rebounds: 11.8, assists: 1.4, blocks: 1.6, field goal percentage: 62.0%

 

How good can they be? With the East up for grabs after Cleveland, Atlanta will be right back in the mix, earning its 10th consecutive appearance in the postseason.

USA TODAY'S projection: 48-34