League sources: Paul Millsap will have at least 3 teams (SAC, DEN, and MIN) offering him a max contract

[Sothron]

2 minutes ago, AHF said:

KB's worst case scenario post above is a very real potential outcome of dropping into the lottery because picking the right player in the draft is tough.  There are no certainties.  Some teams go into the lottery and emerge strong pretty quickly.  Some take a long time to emerge.  When they emerge some come out as contenders and other come out as playoff pretenders. Some stay in there for over a decade with bad team after bad team.  

What happens depends on the quality of your management and luck (who is on the board, who is available in the draft, etc.).  I'll freely acknowledge that.  I just won't agree that noone who drops into the 20's in wins will ever be any good since that describes basically every champion.

Please don't use logic against his crystal ball of doom.

[Watchman]

23 minutes ago, AHF said:

I've already told you that virtually every champ did it by winning 20 some games and drafting their foundational player.  If your goal is to win a championship in the very near term and you aren't willing to wait for a guy like Hakeem Olajuwon to get there then I think you'll find virtually every team fails that measure.  Cornerstone players usually take many more years of marinating before they win you a ring - kind of like if Dennis was that guy you might see it 3 years from now.

To answer your question, though:

The San Antonio Spurs with #1 Tim Duncan

The LA Lakers with #1 Magic Johnson

The LA Lakers with #1 James Worthy

Plenty more to add if you go beyond the #1 overall pick including the Hawks' championship won with #2 overall Bob Pettit in his 3rd season.  I see this as an artificial gaming of the question since I don't claim that you need the #1 overall pick to get a generational talent.  (See Larry Bird, Michael Jordan, Bill Russell, etc.)

Maybe I have misunderstood your point, but when the Lakers drafted Magic, they had lost the conference semi-finals the year before.  When they drafted Worthy, they had won the finals the year before. 

They didn't get these draft picks by tanking.  They got them by making shrewd trades.

Source:  LA Lakers website under "History" tab.

Edited June 28, 2017 by Watchman

[DBac]

This tank vs rebuild talk is missing the mark. Losing Millsap will make this team bad enough that it wont matter what it's called because we'll be picking at the top of the lottery for a franchise cornerstone. 

[Peoriabird]

6 minutes ago, DBac said:

This tank vs rebuild talk is missing the mark. Losing Millsap will make this team bad enough that it wont matter what it's called because we'll be picking at the top of the lottery for a franchise cornerstone. 

Lol!!!

[ISOJOE]

Imagine if we could get Capela via s&t-millsap because the Rockets don't find another way to trade Anderson away.

Schröder-x-Prince-Collins-Capela Future S5.

Next season: S5: Schro-Baze/THjr-Prince-Anderson-Capela

That's my hope.

[DBac]

Just now, Peoriabird said:

Lol!!!

I haven't seen anything to suggest otherwise. 

[AHF]

11 minutes ago, Watchman said:

Maybe I have misunderstood your point, but when the Lakers drafted Magic, they had lost the conference semi-finals the year before.  When they drafted Worthy, they had won the finals the year before. 

They didn't get these draft picks by tanking.  They got them by making shrewd trades.

Source:  LA Lakers website under "History" tab.

My point is that nearly all champions go into the lottery with 20 some wins and emerge with their cornerstone player then they spend years developing their roster around that player until they are ready to win a championship.  They don't hover around 43 wins with no cornerstone player and then tread water and somehow become champions without the ability to attract a prime Shaquille O'Neal type player to their market.

I have never claimed that #1 overall picks should be expected to win a championship within 4 years.  That was an artificial question I was answering from KB.  Most #1 picks who win championships more than 4 years to get there like Isiah Thomas (7 years of experience heading into his first championship), Hakeem (9 years, etc.)  That is the same story for the MVP/All-NBA level players who weren't the #1 overall pick but were taken by their team in the lottery after 20 some wins like Dirk (12 years) and Jordan (6 years).

Guys like Dwyane Wade (drafted by the 25 win Heat) and Larry Bird (drafted by 29 win Celtics) who won a ring in their second or third years are the exception.  But the Heat don't win that ring without NBA Finals MVP Wade and the Celtics don't win without Larry Legend.

[Peoriabird]

1 minute ago, DBac said:

I haven't seen anything to suggest otherwise. 

Free agency hasn't even started, our picks havent had 1 practice but yet you already know the roster? Lol!

[AHF]

11 minutes ago, DBac said:

This tank vs rebuild talk is missing the mark. Losing Millsap will make this team bad enough that it wont matter what it's called because we'll be picking at the top of the lottery for a franchise cornerstone. 

Wait until after free agency to make your prediction because there is a lot that can happen between now and then.

[Watchman]

3 minutes ago, AHF said:

My point is that nearly all champions go into the lottery with 20 some wins and emerge with their cornerstone player then they spend years developing their roster around that player until they are ready to win a championship.  They don't hover around 43 wins with no cornerstone player and then tread water and somehow become champions without the ability to attract a prime Shaquille O'Neal type player to their market.

I have never claimed that #1 overall picks should be expected to win a championship within 4 years.  That was an artificial question I was answering from KB.  Most #1 picks who win championships more than 4 years to get there like Isiah Thomas (7 years), Hakeem (9 years, etc.)  That is the same story for the MVP/All-NBA level players who weren't the #1 overall pick but were taken by their team in the lottery after 20 some wins like Dirk (12 years) and Jordan (6 years).

Guys like Dwyane Wade (drafted by the 25 win Heat) and Larry Bird (drafted by 29 win Celtics) who won a ring in their second or third years are the exception.  But the Heat don't win that ring without NBA Finals MVP Wade and the Celtics don't win without Larry Legend.

Fair enough, but the Lakers got their real foundation via trade also, when they traded for Kareem Abdul Jabbar in 1975.

It is worth noting that Kareem wanted the glamor of Tinseltown as opposed to the factories and such in Beertown.

 

Edited June 28, 2017 by Watchman

[DBac]

2 minutes ago, AHF said:

Wait until after free agency to make your prediction because there is a lot that can happen between now and then.

True but I don't see who we can get that'll move the needle. Paul was probably the best player on offense and defense last year, that's a lot to replace. Not to go all Supes-Al Horford on you.

Like if we do a sign and trade for a Ryan Anderson or even sign Galinari, that still lands us in the lottery IMO. 

[AHF]

6 minutes ago, Watchman said:

Fair enough, but the Lakers got their real foundation via trade also, when they traded for Kareem Abdul Jabbar in 1975.

It is worth noting that Kareem wanted the glamor of Tinseltown as opposed to the factories and such in Beertown.

 

I consider the Lakers to be in their separate category due to the number of amazing players have flocked there due to that glamor and some of the crazy trades they have pulled off but I'm more than happy to see us try a Boston type rebuild where we stay competitive and land multiple lottery picks.  I just don't think you win a title without playing in the lottery when you have the FA allure of Atlanta.  (I will note that they weren't done winning rings after Kareem was long past his prime as well and that core was all their own draft - but even then I am not arguing that the player you draft has to be the best player - just like arguably KD is better than Curry or you can make the case that for the early years in his career Magic wasn't as good as Kareem).

1 minute ago, DBac said:

True but I don't see who we can get that'll move the needle. Paul was probably the best player on offense and defense last year, that's a lot to replace. Not to go all Supes-Al Horford on you.

Like if we do a sign and trade for a Ryan Anderson or even sign Galinari, that still lands us in the lottery IMO. 

I see lots of different scenarios that lead us somewhere other than the top of the lottery.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

3 hours ago, marco102 said:

I'd challenge this and say you will be the first on here complaining after the Hawks have seven or eight years of losing and are still years away from making the playoffs.

Question: Has any team that missed the playoffs ever won a championship?  Nope 100% of time!

If you're talking a one year tank to get a top draft pick, then sure.  That's what happened to San Antonio and lead to Duncan.  If you're talking about picking in the lotto for five years.  Heck no!

I'm not of the mindset that you jettison all your vets and leave your team with a bunch of young players who do not know how to win.  You need a nice mix.  If that mix only leads you to 35 wins then so be it.   If that mix leads you to 50 wins so be it.

I don't watch the Hawks for championships. I watch them for entertainment.  The ultimate entertainment would be them winning a championship.  Watching a crappy team is the worst possible entertainment for me.

And that's the issue for most fans who actually PAY to go watch these games live . . or even on League Pass.  When you talk about a seasonal investment of anywhere from $500 - $5,000 to watch the Hawks, the bang for your entertainment dollar is very important.

If a lottery team is winning 19 games at home, and is at least competitive in most other home games they lose, fans will pay to see that product, even if the overall product is poor, due to how horrible they play on the road.  Anything less than 19 home wins, you risk losing the fans completely.

< or = 19 wins + competitive in home losses = fans will continue to pay for the product

>19 wins + bad home losses = fans keep their money and stay at home

Edited June 28, 2017 by TheNorthCydeRises

[AHF]

Think you need to flip your greater than and less than signs, @TheNorthCydeRises

[KB21]

https://deanondraft.com/2017/06/24/2018-preview-is-michael-porter-a-future-nba-star/

Here's an early look at the players some of you want to tank to get.  

Quote

The fact of the matter is that the draft hype machine has not exactly been nailing NCAA top 3’s a year ahead of time lately

2014: Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Julius Randle
2015: Jahlil Okafor, Emmanuel Mudiay, Stanley Johnson
2016: Ben Simmons, Skal Labissiere, Jaylen Brown
2017: Harry Giles, Jayson Tatum, Josh Jackson

8 of those 12 have playing at least one NBA season, and all look disappointing relative to hype. Simmons, Tatum, and Jackson are the only ones with clear star potential, and none of them are guarantees.

If you randomly select a player from this pile, he is more likely than not to be an ordinary, meh NBA player. It is extremely difficult to predict NBA success without observation vs. NCAA or professional competition. Intuitively Porter, Ayton, and Bamba do not seem any better than prior early top 3’s, and are each more likely to be below average NBA players than good starters.

 

[CP61]

10 minutes ago, KB21 said:

https://deanondraft.com/2017/06/24/2018-preview-is-michael-porter-a-future-nba-star/

Here's an early look at the players some of you want to tank to get.  

 

Luka Doncic is the top player anyway. It's not close to me at the moment.

[KB21]

7 minutes ago, CP61 said:

Luka Doncic is the top player anyway. It's not close to me at the moment.

....and it is very unlikely that Atlanta is bad enough to take him, and even then, you are still looking at a long, slow, painful process to getting back to the playoffs.  I'd rather have a root canal with no lidocaine than watch another 1999-2007 Hawks team again.  

[CP61]

Just now, KB21 said:

....and it is very unlikely that Atlanta is bad enough to take him, and even then, you are still looking at a long, slow, painful process to getting back to the playoffs.  I'd rather have a root canal with no lidocaine than watch another 1999-2007 Hawks team again.  

I can say. You have a much better perspective on this than I do. I'm sure almost everyone here does. I didn't watch the NBA until Coachella Bud got here. The only context I have to make my opinions on supporting a losing team and being okay with it is the Falcons. Even recently, they were bad for 2, mediocre for 1, and then elite. I know there is more parity in football than basketball, but I was fine suffering for a little while because I knew better times were coming. Look, all I want is that guy for the franchise. The one where you see their jersey all over town. Sucking is pretty much the only way to get that, and getting that is pretty much the only way to get a ring or even compete for one.

[KB21]

4 minutes ago, CP61 said:

I can say. You have a much better perspective on this than I do. I'm sure almost everyone here does. I didn't watch the NBA until Coachella Bud got here. The only context I have to make my opinions on supporting a losing team and being okay with it is the Falcons. Even recently, they were bad for 2, mediocre for 1, and then elite. I know there is more parity in football than basketball, but I was fine suffering for a little while because I knew better times were coming. Look, all I want is that guy for the franchise. The one where you see their jersey all over town. Sucking is pretty much the only way to get that, and getting that is pretty much the only way to get a ring or even compete for one.

So, you are perfectly content with sucking in an attempt to find a unicorn prospect no matter how long it takes to do it?

[CP61]

34 minutes ago, KB21 said:

So, you are perfectly content with sucking in an attempt to find a unicorn prospect no matter how long it takes to do it?

Ya gotta do what ya gotta do. Hopefully it happens sooner rather than later. I'm not talking Lebron or Durant level though. I'm saying all nba level. So top 15 I guess. I think if we get one of those, we can convince top guys to come here. As of now, we can't.