Nobody believed?

[Diesel]

When KB21 and I told the tankers that this is a 5 to 10 year fix.. nobody believed. 

Many thought that the Hawks would get a top lottery pick who would turn out to be the franchise savior and we'd be in the ECF in 2 years. 

NOPE.  Picking a great player requires skills.  I'm not ragging on SL games because I don't think they show you much except what kind of shape your players are in.  There are too many selfish attitudes for SL to give meaningful data. 

I'm just talking about our process.   Right now, going forward we have Collins, Young, and Spellman.   3 good players.  Save your breath trying to convince me about Prince, Bembry, and Dennis.. those players are just fools gold.   I do believe that we should do what we can to keep Dedmon though. 

When you consider our collection of players, we're still worse than the Cavs.   I see it being 2023 before we are able to use some picks to trade for some difference making players.   MAYBE.

Then you have to think about the Window.

The good news this offseason is that Lebron is gone.  But now, there are other obstacles.

Wizards, Celtics, Pacers, and Bucks have all gotten Strong.   Add to that Pistons and Heat.   We are still fighting with Charlotte, NY, and Brooklyn to see who will get the better pick.

5 - 10 years. 

[Threezus]

Im not sure who didn't think it would be atleast a  3 to 5 year turnaround as from reading the board most of the offseason that was the consensus from most people.   No one expected it to be a right away fix even if we get a elite prospect in this draft because even the best prospects take a year or 2 to get franchise carrying good.  Now i will say i think we failed on passing up a player in Doncic that could have helped change this franchise easier for a lesser talent in Young.   Thats just my opinion as it sits as i only had Doncic behind bagley in the draft.   Now in 3 years from now Young could be a elite player and Doncic could be a role player who knows i've been wrong before plenty of times so i'll just take a wait and see stance over the next 3 to 5 years as we rebuild and use the cap space in a bigger FA market in the next year or 2 we will have.     Also me and you dang sure don't agree on Prince i have him as our best player on the team right now and think he has 20/5/5 with above avg D potential. 

[sturt]

9 hours ago, Diesel said:

Save your breath trying to convince me

My sentiment captured in 7 words.

And btw, you wouldn't have posted this if the SL team had WON two games by 20 pts, and the draft picks were tearing it up... this thread is completely motivated by the premise that you feel some satisfaction that you were right and the results after two SL games prove it.

And you can save your breath trying to convince me because EVERY ONE of these attempts to use tanking to bounce back up to contender status is unique in some important and multiple ways. Any social scientist worth his/her salt will tell you, the variables are too numerous and too substantial. And sometimes you need most of them to skew positive, and others, you end up merely needing one or two to land in your favor because the players acquired in the process end up being that good.

In our case, I'll wait to see. I think that's only reasonable.

Schlenk to this point has had one semi-important bonehead move, which was the Crawford release... he let his want to be seen as a good guy overcome his professional responsibility to do everything in his power to give his team every advantage.

Everything else seems to me so far to support his reputation as a good talent evaluator. And he didn't do anything amazing, but his FA signings last off-season were prudent.

[PSSSHHHRRR87]

Summer League... We’re basing this on Summer League. [emoji23][emoji23][emoji23]

 

Nobody said ECF in two seasons. We’ve all accepted at least 3-5 years just to be a playoff team again. I prefer this route over WLOC or being a 60-win team that nobody honestly believed in. We have no idea what this team will be like in five seasons and it makes me excited to be Hawks fan with that kind of possibility. We have no idea where the ceiling is.

[Buzzard]

KB21 and Diesel saying 5 - 10 years to get back in the playoffs. I am still skeptical of that prediction. We just finished year one and to say that is correct is incorrect.

Wait until 2022 to say you are correct.

[EazyRoc]

If we are counting this as the first of the rebuild, I still believe we will have a shot at the playoffs by Year 3. The 2 young pieces we have (Collins and Prince) will be entering their primes and Trae will have completely adjusted to the NBA. If they are performing well and the rest of our picks this year at least translate to top level back ups, we can start attracting FA talent. 

[NBASupes]

OST

[Thomas]

8 hours ago, sturt said:

Everything else seems to me so far to support his reputation as a good talent evaluator.

Will continue to count on it and even if no one is onboard with the Dollar Store version of the GS roster idea I will still keep in mind Schlenk is the reason GS drafted Draymond in the first place. Schlenk has shown he can see through the fog of the draft before. I'm may be irritable these days but I am indeed onboard with this direction.

[KB21]

25 minutes ago, Thomas said:

Will continue to count on it and even if no one is onboard with the Dollar Store version of the GS roster idea I will still keep in mind Schlenk is the reason GS drafted Draymond in the first place. Schlenk has shown he can see through the fog of the draft before. I'm may be irritable these days but I am indeed onboard with this direction.

This is where I diverge.  I'm fine with the talent evaluation and the draft, but I don't like the direction the team has chosen to intentionally set up a losing situation just to get higher draft picks.  If you are a good evaluator, trust your instincts and find those great players with later picks instead of establishing a losing culture that will be difficult to overcome, no matter who you draft.

[sturt]

37 minutes ago, KB21 said:

This is where I diverge.  I'm fine with the talent evaluation and the draft, but I don't like the direction the team has chosen to intentionally set up a losing situation just to get higher draft picks.  If you are a good evaluator, trust your instincts and find those great players with later picks instead of establishing a losing culture that will be difficult to overcome, no matter who you draft.

At some point, it's less about finding "those great players" because none of those with an actual chance to become "great" EVEN EXIST at that point in the draft. Please. Just a little pragmatism.

I wasn't totally on-board with the tanking thing, either, but balanced, critical thought demands that a person acknowledge the obvious.

[KB21]

19 minutes ago, sturt said:

At some point, it's less about finding "those great players" because none of those with an actual chance to become "great" EVEN EXIST at that point in the draft. Please. Just a little pragmatism.

I wasn't totally on-board with the tanking thing, either, but balanced, critical thought demands that a person acknowledge the obvious.

Kawhi Leonard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Draymond Green, and Jimmy Butler all say otherwise.  Also, Klay Thompson was the 11th pick.  Devin Booker, who many like, was the 13th pick.  While they may not be "great" players, they are players that can contribute on a championship caliber team.  Booker may be a little bit of a stretch there.  

[parfait]

19 hours ago, Diesel said:

When KB21 and I told the tankers that this is a 5 to 10 year fix.. nobody believed. 

Many thought that the Hawks would get a top lottery pick who would turn out to be the franchise savior and we'd be in the ECF in 2 years. 

NOPE.  Picking a great player requires skills.  I'm not ragging on SL games because I don't think they show you much except what kind of shape your players are in.  There are too many selfish attitudes for SL to give meaningful data. 

I'm just talking about our process.   Right now, going forward we have Collins, Young, and Spellman.   3 good players.  Save your breath trying to convince me about Prince, Bembry, and Dennis.. those players are just fools gold.   I do believe that we should do what we can to keep Dedmon though. 

When you consider our collection of players, we're still worse than the Cavs.   I see it being 2023 before we are able to use some picks to trade for some difference making players.   MAYBE.

Then you have to think about the Window.

The good news this offseason is that Lebron is gone.  But now, there are other obstacles.

Wizards, Celtics, Pacers, and Bucks have all gotten Strong.   Add to that Pistons and Heat.   We are still fighting with Charlotte, NY, and Brooklyn to see who will get the better pick.

5 - 10 years. 

Hmm, 5-10 years?!

We actually have 5 quality young pieces currently: the 3 that you mentioned (Collins, Young, Spellman).

But also Huerter.

And Prince is clearly, at the very least, a high quality 6th man/combo forward (and in today's NBA combo-forwards are in short supply).

Dedmon is also a quality center as you said, but he probably hold greater value in trade.

Add 2-3 more young pieces from next year's draft, which is full of quality wings.

And then we're on target to start FA shopping in the summer of 2020 (after everyone else will have spent their wad in 2019)

That's a solid 3 year rebuilding timetable, especially in the paper-thin Eastern Conference.

5-10 years?...those numbers seem to have been pulled from the nether-regions of Proctology.

[Final_quest]

The truth is it’s impossible to know how long a rebuild will take.  Too many factors outside your control.  

I think we need to continue to stock pile draft picks and keep our cap flexible.  

 

[sturt]

1 hour ago, KB21 said:

Kawhi Leonard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Draymond Green, and Jimmy Butler all say otherwise.  Also, Klay Thompson was the 11th pick.  Devin Booker, who many like, was the 13th pick.  While they may not be "great" players, they are players that can contribute on a championship caliber team.  Booker may be a little bit of a stretch there.  

So let's think about this since you insist...

The 2017 and 2018 all stars except for Millsap (#49 in 06), M Gasol (#50 in 07) and Thomas (#60 in 11) (... just because I couldn't get it all in the screenshot)...

Do the math like I did, and here's what you find...

If you drafted in the top 3 between 2003-15, you had a 33.0% chance of drafting an arguably "great" player.

If you drafted in the top 11 between 2003-15, you had half that chance... 17.5%

If you drafted any lower than that in the first round (#12-#30), your chance? 1.6%

Which actually wasn't much better than your chance of picking up an All-Star in the 2nd round... 1.3%

 

 

[KB21]

5 minutes ago, sturt said:

So let's think about this since you insist...

The 2017 and 2018 all stars except for Millsap (#49 in 06), M Gasol (#50 in 07) and Thomas (#60 in 11) (... just because I couldn't get it all in the screenshot)...

Do the math like I did, and here's what you find...

If you drafted in the top 3 between 2003-15, you had a 33.0% chance of drafting an arguably "great" player.

If you drafted in the top 11 between 2003-15, you had half that chance... 17.5%

If you drafted any lower than that in the first round (#12-#30), your chance? 1.6%

Which actually wasn't much better than your chance of picking up an All-Star in the 2nd round... 1.3%

 

 

I know what the data shows, but I also know that teams who draft at the top of the draft tend to stay drafting at the top of the draft.  

If all it took to become great was drafting at the top of the draft, then the Kings would be great right now.  The Suns would be great.  The Timberwolves would be great.  

[sturt]

2 minutes ago, KB21 said:

I know what the data shows, but I also know that teams who draft at the top of the draft tend to stay drafting at the top of the draft.  

If all it took to become great was drafting at the top of the draft, then the Kings would be great right now.  The Suns would be great.  The Timberwolves would be great.  

 

Don't twist my words.

It was me, before you, who stated that there are too many variables involved to conclude how long it should take any given team to contend after having spent some time in the tank.

So, that any one of those teams hasn't succeeded is irrelevant to the point of what is typical  based on recent history.

If one is determined to compete for a title, and if your blueprint demands that the draft stock your roster with at least one ASG-level talent, then at minimum, you need to be in the top 11... and if you're so lucky as to draw top 3, then to be able to double your chances is a pretty big deal.

To be satisfied with anything lower than #11 is damning.

[Diesel]

11 hours ago, sturt said:

My sentiment captured in 7 words.

And btw, you wouldn't have posted this if the SL team had WON two games by 20 pts, and the draft picks were tearing it up... this thread is completely motivated by the premise that you feel some satisfaction that you were right and the results after two SL games prove it.

And you can save your breath trying to convince me because EVERY ONE of these attempts to use tanking to bounce back up to contender status is unique in some important and multiple ways. Any social scientist worth his/her salt will tell you, the variables are too numerous and too substantial. And sometimes you need most of them to skew positive, and others, you end up merely needing one or two to land in your favor because the players acquired in the process end up being that good.

In our case, I'll wait to see. I think that's only reasonable.

Schlenk to this point has had one semi-important bonehead move, which was the Crawford release... he let his want to be seen as a good guy overcome his professional responsibility to do everything in his power to give his team every advantage.

Everything else seems to me so far to support his reputation as a good talent evaluator. And he didn't do anything amazing, but his FA signings last off-season were prudent.

Actually, the post was coming on draft night. 

However, I liked the trade, didn't like the pick. 

[Threezus]

35 minutes ago, KB21 said:

I know what the data shows, but I also know that teams who draft at the top of the draft tend to stay drafting at the top of the draft.  

If all it took to become great was drafting at the top of the draft, then the Kings would be great right now.  The Suns would be great.  The Timberwolves would be great.  

I'll put it like this if this weren't the Hawks and we are known to not be a destination for top tier talent i would be right there with you bitching about this rebuild.  But the fact that we are in atlanta and high profile free agents do not sign with us to make us better even if we already have solid talent then we honestly had no choice but to do it this way and the reason i agree with it is we still can get a elite talent in 1 of 2 ways.  1 draft one in the top 5 to 8 picks over a few years and pray one of them hit.  or 2 use all those assets we are picking up and after we add a few pieces early in the draft and maybe luckily add a piece or 2 in FA thats above avg not elite because i don't see elite signing here.  Then we can use all those extra assets and picks to trade for one that might have a few years on his contract that we can in turn max out if we wish too.  

Now if we were a team like the lakers or celtics that players go out of their way to sign with i would be super pissed about this rebuild but were not so im not.

[KB21]

31 minutes ago, sturt said:

 

Don't twist my words.

It was me, before you, who stated that there are too many variables involved to conclude how long it should take any given team to contend after having spent some time in the tank.

So, that any one of those teams hasn't succeeded is irrelevant to the point of what is typical  based on recent history.

If one is determined to compete for a title, and if your blueprint demands that the draft stock your roster with at least one ASG-level talent, then at minimum, you need to be in the top 11... and if you're so lucky as to draw top 3, then to be able to double your chances is a pretty big deal.

To be satisfied with anything lower than #11 is damning.

Then give me an example where a process like this took less than 5 years without the team signing LeBron James because he loved Cleveland.

9 minutes ago, falconfan13 said:

I'll put it like this if this weren't the Hawks and we are known to not be a destination for top tier talent i would be right there with you bitching about this rebuild.  But the fact that we are in atlanta and high profile free agents do not sign with us to make us better even if we already have solid talent then we honestly had no choice but to do it this way and the reason i agree with it is we still can get a elite talent in 1 of 2 ways.  1 draft one in the top 5 to 8 picks over a few years and pray one of them hit.  or 2 use all those assets we are picking up and after we add a few pieces early in the draft and maybe luckily add a piece or 2 in FA thats above avg not elite because i don't see elite signing here.  Then we can use all those extra assets and picks to trade for one that might have a few years on his contract that we can in turn max out if we wish too.  

Now if we were a team like the lakers or celtics that players go out of their way to sign with i would be super pissed about this rebuild but were not so im not.

So, now how do you overcome the losing culture you have established by accepting losing as a means of talent collection?

[Threezus]

1 minute ago, KB21 said:

Then give me an example where a process like this took less than 5 years without the team signing LeBron James because he loved Cleveland.

So, now how do you overcome the losing culture you have established by accepting losing as a means of talent collection?

Their really is no losing culture i find that as a myth because every team comes and goes from top to bottom all the time.  The only way to overcome losing is to get better talent that can make your whole team better.  The sixers ar the prime example of this they had a losing culture so to say but once they got real talent or a player who can actually take you to the next level they came right out of it in 1 year pretty much.    So with us being the hawks what is your best and most honest opinion of us getting a super star on this team is it in FA  or is it in the draft / trading for one with assets.