How serious of a playoff threat are we this season?

[AHF]

We are definitely going to cut some minutes for people given the depth on our team.  I think Pierce and Schlenk will keep their eyes on the prize and prioritize our young studs' development which means I'd expect the cuts to fall primarily on the vets.  Here is how I see it playing out with mpg when everyone is healthy listed. Note that actual mpg averages will be higher since injuries or rest will inflate the averages for people filling in when the roster isn't full.

 

PG: Trae - the man at pg ~34 mpg / Turner - brings some definite strengths and weaknesses, limited role guy ~13 mpg / Bembry ~1 mpg (Bembry, Cam, and Huerter should play whatever minutes are leftover)

SG:  Huerter - up and coming player; could see minutes vary depending on performance ~26 mpg / Cam - same ~12 mpg / Crabbe - vet with no future on the team who brings scoring and not much else ~10 mpg

SF:  Hunter - should be the defensive foundation of our team ~24 mpg / Cam - up and comings, minutes could vary ~13 mpg / Bembry - Defensive role player whose only path to significant increase in minutes is a major improvement on offense ~10 mpg 

PF:  Collins - the man at pf ~23 mpg / Parker - scoring sub ~21 mpg / Hunter - small ball minutes ~2 mpg / Parsons ~2 mpg

C.: Len - starter at ~24 mpg / Collins - will get some material amount of burn ~11 mpg / Bruno ~6 mpg / Jones ~ 7 mpg

 

Total minutes in a game with everyone healthy:

Collins 34 

Trae 34

Huerter 26

Hunter 26

Cam 25

Len 24

Parker 21

Turner 13

Bembry 11

Crabbe 10

Jones 7

Bruno 6

Parsons 2

Goodwin, Brown, Spalding DNP-CD

 

I could see us cutting minutes for Bruno and Jones to flex a few more for the guys but have a hard time seeing any other players getting cut unless they just don't make the rotation.

[Spud2nique]

52 minutes ago, AHF said:

Huerter 26

Higher imho. I’m gonna say 29.5, possibly 30.

[Spud2nique]

53 minutes ago, AHF said:

Crabbe 10

In some games, he’s gonna play a consistent 20+ I know many Hawks fans don’t watch west coast nba due to later times but Crabbe balled out with the Blazers, absolutely needs more than 10 minutes per game, specially around  the months of January and February so we can showcase and possibly flip him at the deadline for assets.

 

One thing I’ll make clear: Squawk will love his shooting. Flat out gunner and if he gets hot 🥵 and Trae keeps finding him, we go on 20-6, 18-8 type of runs against other squads.

[AHF]

34 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

Higher imho. I’m gonna say 29.5, possibly 30.

 

31 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

In some games, he’s gonna play a consistent 20+ I know many Hawks fans don’t watch west coast nba due to later times but Crabbe balled out with the Blazers, absolutely needs more than 10 minutes per game, specially around  the months of January and February so we can showcase and possibly flip him at the deadline for assets.

 

One thing I’ll make clear: Squawk will love his shooting. Flat out gunner and if he gets hot 🥵 and Trae keeps finding him, we go on 20-6, 18-8 type of runs against other squads.

How many OT games are there going to be to support 30 mpg for Huerter, 20 mpg for Crabbe and some additional time for Bembry and Cam?

Only 48 minutes to go around.

[Spud2nique]

12 minutes ago, AHF said:

 

How many OT games are there going to be to support 30 mpg for Huerter, 20 mpg for Crabbe and some additional time for Bembry and Cam?

Only 48 minutes to go around.

We are too deep. Hehe Are you also counter Hunter for a few pf minutes? Just curious. Also, Huerter at some pg minutes. You are right still seems like not enough time to go around. 

How are we this deep yet the critics say we aren’t a top 8 tram in the east, I don’t get it. Rookies aren’t the rookies of yesterday. You get a few good ones and mix in guys like a VC and some vets off the bench we could be messin around with 50 wins. 

Sorry I digress, yes I guess not enough minutes so Huerter could see less.

[Thomas]

Think Bembry and Crabbe battle each other for minutes all depending on if O or D is needed and we still don't really know if Cam will get many at sg as well. Think Cam gets just about everything Hunter does not at sf but not sure how soon he gets minutes elsewhere on the floor. Think Huerter will play a good bit especially early on and he does have quite the jump start on our new guys to begin with.

[AHF]

54 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

We are too deep. Hehe Are you also counter Hunter for a few pf minutes? Just curious. Also, Huerter at some pg minutes. You are right still seems like not enough time to go around. 

How are we this deep yet the critics say we aren’t a top 8 tram in the east, I don’t get it. Rookies aren’t the rookies of yesterday. You get a few good ones and mix in guys like a VC and some vets off the bench we could be messin around with 50 wins. 

Sorry I digress, yes I guess not enough minutes so Huerter could see less.

I put Hunter down for a couple minutes at PF but expect that time to be really dominated by Parker and Collins until Cam busts out and forces us to need to find some minutes at PF for Hunter.  Otherwise, I'm just putting him in there for a couple.  Collins should only be doing more this season and I've got Parker at 21 mpg despite his career 29.7 mpg average (26.9 last season).

As for why we might not be a top 8 team, I guess I see us having a lot of depth but also a lot of guys who are interchangable and of secondary or tertiary impact.  Turner, Parker, Crabbe, Parsons, Bembry, Hunter, Bruno, Jones and Cam could all give below average performances on any given night and all of them are either really young or have significant flaws in their overall games.  Basketball is generally a game driven by your elite players and we have lots of "contributor" level depth.  I think our playoff hopes will hang on whether we get guys making the leap to standout players (Trae and Collins continuing to grow and others making the leaps they did last year).  

[Spud2nique]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

Basketball is generally a game driven by your elite players and we have lots of "contributor" level depth. 

I agree that it’s an elite player driven league but I’m also starting to notice that young players in all sports these days are reaching elite level status both individually and team related faster than they were 30, 20 or even 5 years ago. That’s why it was important in my opinion to land 2 top 10 picks in either 2018 or 19. Schlenk chose the latter with the Trae trade.

Our main contributors, our stars ️, are all under 23 years old. I just think the NBA ha caught on as much until last year and a bit this year but..

Astros of MLB broke out a few years back, all young guns and won the whole thing. Of course Verlander, but the hitters were mainly young.

KC Chief. I always relate this one to us. Mahomes is the NFL version of Trae Young to me. He elevated the Chiefs like Young will do this year for us.

Braves.. Acuna, Albies, Soroka, Fried.. should I go on, they peaked early,

I think Hawks are heading in the same direction as the above teams., nation is way behind on it.

[AHF]

Agree, Spud.  It will be about our youngsters.  See the last line of my prior post.

[enrique]

 

12 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I agree that SG, SF, PF have some depth since we have some dual role guys for those spots.

PG and C - TBD.

The writers were definitely higher on Evan Turner than I am, but I am more than willing to be wrong. If he is solid, then our PG is not terribly off. 

Odd that they really didn't address Damian Jones or Alex Len other than a slight hat tip to veterans. I know I am most worried about C and backup PG right now. Seems they don't see anyone other than Bruno for the Hawks at C. After Summer League I realized how much work Bruno will have. Let's hope he hits his stride much, much quicker than I think.

[enrique]

On 9/17/2019 at 1:22 PM, AHF said:

Basketball is generally a game driven by your elite players and we have lots of "contributor" level depth.  I think our playoff hopes will hang on whether we get guys making the leap to standout players (Trae and Collins continuing to grow and others making the leaps they did last year).  

Absolutely!!! Just look at the NBA finals rotations for the past 5+ years. No teams dig deeper than 7 men playing anything meaningful. Some teams drill it down to 6. Since there are no b2b games in the playoffs, team depth is less of an issue. If the playoffs began going b2b in between travel days, we'd see a team with more balanced personnel perform much better than the current "super team" rosters do. 

[enrique]

Here is another season preview on the Hawks from Def Pen. https://defpen.com/atlanta-hawks-2019-20-season-preview/

There is not much new here...some Dedmon love, some Trae ROY smack down talk, some Coach praise, some rookie "yawns" and a prediction of less wins than last year. 

In spite of that I posted it for those of you who are in the "please hurry up and arrive" mode like me!

[JayBirdHawk]

1 hour ago, enrique said:

Here is another season preview on the Hawks from Def Pen. https://defpen.com/atlanta-hawks-2019-20-season-preview/

There is not much new here...some Dedmon love, some Trae ROY smack down talk, some Coach praise, some rookie "yawns" and a prediction of less wins than last year. 

In spite of that I posted it for those of you who are in the "please hurry up and arrive" mode like me!

 

I hate to do this but...

Quote

but the Hawks lost two of their five starters Dewayne Dedmon and Kent Bazemore.

Kent lost his starting spot to Huerter in December, and they also forgot to mention Prince as the 3rd lost starter.

[sillent]

On 8/8/2019 at 1:07 PM, AHF said:

That's why I gave the preemptive "sorry"!  

My take is that I think we are built for another developmental year and with that objective we will likely be back in the lottery in this era of more evenly weighted odds (i.e., hopes for a lucky top 4 pull).  To that end, Vince Carter is not just PR but is a part of the developmental structure being put around our youngsters.

If we overachieve and make the playoffs, it will be because our rookies came in strong and had a fast impact and our returning second and third year players kept getting better this season.  That type of organic improvement would be very exciting in every respect.  

So if we miss the playoffs, we'll have some nice picks and a lot of spending cash for a subpar FA field or for a trade.  If we make the playoffs, it will be because our young talent blossomed and we will still have the cash and trade assets.  That latter situation also represents a potential where we could become a target for players who want to team up on a new squad ala every big FA recently.

I agree. I think Coach Pierce as well as the motivation to send Vince off right will give us an extra edge. I might be out on the highest limb because I predict 50wins & possibly a 3rd/4th team. I calculated every game once the schedule came out but I do understand it's a long season & so much can happen from now till then so I respect those with good rational opinions. 

[sillent]

On 8/19/2019 at 4:20 PM, gurpilo said:

Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Boston, Brooklin, Toronto, Indiana, Miami, Detroit and Orlando are better in my opinion. Miami might be in discussion but they added Butler, Herro and Leonard and lost Richardson and Witheside, they have 3 young up and cong players that will improve in Adebayo, Derrick Jomes Jr and Winslow, they could improve their 39 wins.

I respect your opinion ... I still think we're being slept on & will change pundits opinions sooner than later (mid season) but currently the East is not quite as weak as many would choose to believe. 

I only see 6 weak teams in the league period this yr & that's Cleveland, Charlotte, Phoenix, Grizzlies, (Possibly Washington & Thunder).

Everything else is in the air & teams will have a chance to re-establish their position in this league as far as contenders, elites squads, middle tier, pretenders & disappointments. 

I think we know we have that narrative on our side & will take advantage. 50 wins!! (No clue where that lands us just yet & we may even strategically position ourselves but I definitely see playoffs)!!!

[enrique]

2 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

I hate to do this but...

Kent lost his starting spot to Huerter in December, and they also forgot to mention Prince as the 3rd lost starter.

@JayBirdHawkNot sure why you said "I hate to do this"? I might have missed something, but they did indeed misrepresent our departures.

[JayBirdHawk]

31 minutes ago, enrique said:

@JayBirdHawkNot sure why you said "I hate to do this"? I might have missed something, but they did indeed misrepresent our departures.

Just didn't want to take away from the rest of the article, but I hate when writers get the simple stuff incorrect.

[Gray Mule]

19 hours ago, enrique said:

Here is another season preview on the Hawks from Def Pen. https://defpen.com/atlanta-hawks-2019-20-season-preview/

There is not much new here...some Dedmon love, some Trae ROY smack down talk, some Coach praise, some rookie "yawns" and a prediction of less wins than last year. 

In spite of that I posted it for those of you who are in the "please hurry up and arrive" mode like me!

Boy oh boy!  Hawks really messed up and this writer says expect more losses in the upcoming season's 29!  Wow.  We sure stink.  Or, at least, we smell bad.  Let's look at the reasons.

We lost Dedmon and we can't replace him.  We're hurting here.

Also, another starter gone with no replacement.  Hawks spent all their payroll room to sign unwanted, high priced players to gain future draft picks.  Therefore they have no payroll room left to sign needed veterans.

They made a highly questionable draft pick at #4 when they selected Hunter.  Then they picked Cam Reddish at #10, the draft's most divisive prospect.

Trae, Hueler and Collins will again be exciting but they will have no help.  Rookies can't carry any of the load and the Hawks have no one else.

Apparently our GM and Head coach have no idea of what they are doing.  Expect Collins to play most of his time at center and power forward both as we have no one else.  Guess we will play 4 on 5 !!

 

 

[Thomas]

18 hours ago, Gray Mule said:

Boy oh boy!  Hawks really messed up and this writer says expect more losses in the upcoming season's 29!  Wow.  We sure stink.  Or, at least, we smell bad.  Let's look at the reasons.

We lost Dedmon and we can't replace him.  We're hurting here.

Also, another starter gone with no replacement.  Hawks spent all their payroll room to sign unwanted, high priced players to gain future draft picks.  Therefore they have no payroll room left to sign needed veterans.

They made a highly questionable draft pick at #4 when they selected Hunter.  Then they picked Cam Reddish at #10, the draft's most divisive prospect.

Trae, Hueler and Collins will again be exciting but they will have no help.  Rookies can't carry any of the load and the Hawks have no one else.

Apparently our GM and Head coach have no idea of what they are doing.  Expect Collins to play most of his time at center and power forward both as we have no one else.  Guess we will play 4 on 5 !!

 

 

Pretty sure this writer is off by twelve to fifteen wins. Don't see us winning less than 42 but if he is right (which he is definitely not) than....

[sillent]

On 9/17/2019 at 10:26 AM, enrique said:

That is definitely a fun read. I enjoyed some of the positivity of the article combined with some nice stats. Thanks for finding it and posting. Makes the doldrums between Summer League and Preseason more bearable:)

Thought the quote: The Hawks have almost too much depth. was an interesting take on the Hawks. On the Wings that is definitely true. But across the other spots we will see. 

I believe what they meant by that statement is we arguably have 14 players that can all make a case for playing time if they all remain healthy. We are only allowed 12 on the bench if I'm not mistaken. Deep teams are great for an 82 season grind as the Raptors proved last yr & the Warriors in yrs past. Still it will be a challenge finding playing time for everyone.

(Trae Young, Kevin Huerter, DeAndre Hunter, John Collins, Alex Len, Evan Turner, Allen Crabbe, DeAndre Bembry, Jabari Parker, Damian Jones, Cam Reddish, Vince Carter, Chandler Parsons & Bruno Fernando)