How serious of a playoff threat are we this season?

[Spud2nique]

Just saw on fb but can’t seem to find it again. It was from clutch. Spencer Dinwiddie’s surprise playoff team prediction: The Hawks!

 

[kerrypack]

On 8/7/2019 at 8:16 PM, thecampster said:

So take a look at key losses vs key acquisitions. (end of year only).

 

Jaylen Adams -> Evan Turner (say what you want about Turner...he's a major upgrade over Adams).

Taurean Prince -> Allen Crabbe (wash)

Omari Spellman -> Damion Jones (IMHO wash but an argument can be made both ways)

Justin Anderson -> Deandre Hunter (Uhm...dunno but considering Anderson barely played...anything we get is a win)

Kent Bazemore -> Cam Reddish (Hardest grade here....Reddish could be amazing...I think he takes a few years but yah...could be a win and Baze was bad 2nd half last year)

Miles Plumlee -> Bruno Fernando (Same as above)

Dwayne Dedmon -> Chandler Parsons (Probably a loss unless Parsons returns to form

Random D Leaguer who played PF -> Jabari Parker (Mongo huge win)

2018 Young, Huerter, Collins vs 2019 versions -> should be minor upgrade.

 

Basically we are really going to miss Dedmon but other than that its all upgrades or same. IMHO we mildly overachieved last year. Average this year would be 37ish wins but could top out as high 45 if everything went perfect...low as 30 if bad things happen. I'll be optimistic and say 41 wins and make the playoffs as the 7th seed.

 

 

maybe compare dwayne to jabari and kent to cam/hunter should be a downgrade year 1.  have to factor in the dramatic improvement we saw in some players by the second half of last year as well.

 

Def Dedmon is the biggest loss.

[Thomas]

5 hours ago, Spud2nique said:

Just saw on fb but can’t seem to find it again. It was from clutch. Spencer Dinwiddie’s surprise playoff team prediction: The Hawks!

 

Spencer is a bit of a crazy ass but do like his prediction. He would be a great backup to Trae. Could spend the rest of his career at the foul line if he wanted to.

[Spud2nique]

42 minutes ago, Thomas said:

Spencer is a bit of a crazy ass but do like his prediction. He would be a great backup to Trae. Could spend the rest of his career at the foul line if he wanted to.

Just went back to see how we faired against those Nets last season. 0-3 but Collins had a couple of monster games and Trae had a good one too I believe.

Spence hit around 15/16 points off the bench against us.

Just thought he might have said that because Trae torched him but not the case.

[HawkItus]

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2019/8/23/20828260/are-we-sure-atlanta-hawks-nba-playoffs-2019-2020-season

 

[Spud2nique]

2 hours ago, HawkItus said:

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2019/8/23/20828260/are-we-sure-atlanta-hawks-nba-playoffs-2019-2020-season

 

Bottom half of the east is still crazy weak. We have a shot at the playoffs I agree ☝! 

[Spud2nique]

Also found this article regards the greatest turnarounds by any team in the NBA and I found #4 and #5 very intriguing as they featured Steve Nash and Jason Kidd respectively and seem some what comparable to our young team here. 

Nets went from 26 to 52 wins 2001 to 2002. 

Suns went from 29 to 62 wins 2004 to 2005. 

Suns basically added Nash and took out Marbury. 

Nets brought in Kidd to mesh with a 2nd year Kmart and a rookie Richard Jefferson. (Trae as Kidd, Collins 2nd year mirrors Kmart, Cam is our RJ).

Both these teams remind me of us.

We got a shot to make a leap with Trae and this young talent.

 

 

https://www.sportskeeda.com/amp/slideshow/top-5-single-season-turnarounds-in-nba-history

[AHF]

Every team that took out Steph added a much better PG and did much better.  He never won anything until he played against Chinese competition.

Bear in mind that the examples you just gave involve veteran PGs.  Nash's 2004 Suns were his age 30 season.  Kidd's Nets were his age 28 season.

When Nash and Kidd were Young's age, they were either a rookie with a losing team or still in college.

[Spud2nique]

23 minutes ago, AHF said:

Every team that took out Steph added a much better PG and did much better.  He never won anything until he played against Chinese competition.

Bear in mind that the examples you just gave involve veteran PGs.  Nash's 2004 Suns were his age 30 season.  Kidd's Nets were his age 28 season.

When Nash and Kidd were Young's age, they were either a rookie with a losing team or still in college.

You’re overthinking it. Just enjoy it  

ps Trae has that Nash/Kidd in their prime attitudes right now. Please believe it.

[gurpilo]

I don't understand the comparison made on the thread

I think comparison should be for players playing same position.

In my opinion

Lin > Turner

Baze < Crabbe

Prince = Hunter, hopefully

Justin Anderson < Reddish

Spellman < Parker

Dedmon >> Jones

Plumlee < Fernando

On players with significant minutes, Lin,  Baze, Prince and Dedmon I think we lose a bit with Turner, Crabbe, Hunter and Jones although I think some of Dedmon's minutes will go to Parker and Collins at C. 

The clear win on the team is contributions from Reddish and Parker, would it be enough to overcome what we lose on Dedmon, Prince and Lin? Difficult to tell.

[benhillboy]

I was on a high after the great draft but they are just rookies.  I’ve tempered my expectations, gotta see some considerable improvement defensively from our 2 AS-hopefuls.  Being a cynic I would also never assume perfect health, gotta account for at least 15 games missing one of the aforementioned.  Get back to me in December.  

There’s been so much player movement I won’t fully know what to make of the East until then.  I think a big advantage though will be contending teams’ “load management” getting hit in the mouth by our young and exuberant full-strength squad.

Edited August 24, 2019 by benhillboy

[gurpilo]

That is exactly my point, long term there is no doubt we made a huge progress but this season players are going to be really young. If this team is able to make playoffs with a core of 2 sophomores, 2 rookies, a 22 year PF and a bunch of 25-27th year old role players... Atl would be on conference finals for a decade, I doubt we are so good. It expect Huerter, Hunter and Reddish to struggle a bit till January, Huerter will pick where he left last year but will not meet improvement expectations since first month. It would be absolutely stunning they produce since fist game, hopefully they can but I would not be disapointed if they are not, is the standard for young players. I think we are sometimes mixing the medium-long term expectations with the reality next month. I am very optimistic for this team in 2 years, if we keep the team together we could be one of the top teams on the east but we are not there yet. 

Edited August 24, 2019 by gurpilo

[Spud2nique]

3 hours ago, benhillboy said:

Get back to me in December.

No, now damnit. I’m gonna need you to think under some pressure here...

[Thomas]

Not sure about counting or comparing Crabbe until we at least hear something positive from him or his camp. With no news at all am thinking he truly would rather be somewhere with less youthful rotation bodies. Having a player here in the ten man rotation that isn't happy with his jersey does not sound too helpful for our youngsters..

[enrique]

Here is a fun article making the bold proclamation that the Hawks will be in the playoff mix and a frightening team to face in April

https://clutchpoints.com/atlanta-hawks-5-bold-predictions-for-the-2019-20-nba-season/

[PSSSHHHRRR87]

On 8/24/2019 at 8:09 AM, benhillboy said:

I was on a high after the great draft but they are just rookies.  I’ve tempered my expectations, gotta see some considerable improvement defensively from our 2 AS-hopefuls.  Being a cynic I would also never assume perfect health, gotta account for at least 15 games missing one of the aforementioned.  Get back to me in December.  

There’s been so much player movement I won’t fully know what to make of the East until then.  I think a big advantage though will be contending teams’ “load management” getting hit in the mouth by our young and exuberant full-strength squad.

I agree with this.  The future is bright, but we are still 2-3 seasons from making noise; a 7th or 8th seed in the playoffs would be a return to the treadmill and would stagnate our growth.  Don't get me wrong, I want to see this young team win some games and a few wins against a few top teams would put the league on notice. We still need a sixth man, a backup PG, a backup PF, and until our rooks prove themselves, their contributions are up in the air too.  This team is still just Trae and JC.

[Thomas]

12 minutes ago, PSSSHHHRRR87 said:

a 7th or 8th seed in the playoffs would be a return to the treadmill and would stagnate our growth. 

Don't really see it that way since most of the important part of our roster are several physically mature youngsters. Thinking of Hunter, Cam, Bruno, Trae, Huerter and am even including JC here. By mid season they are all part of the ten man rotation (Bruno the only question on that timeline) and don't see them achieving some success detrimental or putting us on a path to mediocrity. Would like to see them string some wins together in particular with late game theatrics.

[hazer]

1 hour ago, PSSSHHHRRR87 said:

I agree with this.  The future is bright, but we are still 2-3 seasons from making noise; a 7th or 8th seed in the playoffs would be a return to the treadmill and would stagnate our growth.  Don't get me wrong, I want to see this young team win some games and a few wins against a few top teams would put the league on notice. We still need a sixth man, a backup PG, a backup PF, and until our rooks prove themselves, their contributions are up in the air too.  This team is still just Trae and JC.

This team is not 3 seasons from making some noise, the noise begins this year when they’re a VERY young 8th seed. Sneaking into the bottom of the playoffs with a roster full of mid-to-late 20 year olds with no future picks and little cap space would be treadmilling. This is far from that and just the beginning.

6th man candidates: Bembry, Crabbe, Cam

Backup PGs: Turner, Bembry, Cam

Backup PFs: Parker, Carter, Bruno

This team is still just Trae and JC: Huerter on line 3

 

[Spud2nique]

1 hour ago, hazer said:

This team is not 3 seasons from making some noise, the noise begins this year when they’re a VERY young 8th seed. Sneaking into the bottom of the playoffs with a roster full of mid-to-late 20 year olds with no future picks and little cap space would be treadmilling. This is far from that and just the beginning.

6th man candidates: Bembry, Crabbe, Cam

Backup PGs: Turner, Bembry, Cam

Backup PFs: Parker, Carter, Bruno

This team is still just Trae and JC: Huerter on line 3

 

This. 8th seed. Maybe 6 or 7. It’s our turn. No more lottery bs. We hit the lottery twice, owned it and are leaving it with crazy talent now. 

 

We got next!

[hazer]

1 minute ago, Spud2nique said:

This. 8th seed. Maybe 6 or 7. It’s our turn. No more lottery bs. We hit the lottery twice, owned it and are leaving it with crazy talent now. 

 

We got next!

Don’t forget all the expirings and cap space too