[Winter 2020] Woj Rumor: Drummmmmnd to ATL talks happening

[Atlantaholic]

18 minutes ago, kg01 said:

But that's like saying one guy is the tallest midg..... uh, short person.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/def_rtg_active.html

Third among active players in average defensive rating. Behind Dwight and Kawhi. Now I won't act like defensive rating is a fantastic metric to evaluate a single player, but the fact Drummond has led his team in defensive rating every season by a pretty wide margin compared to the other regulars is a pretty good indicator he has been a pretty good defender.

Detroit's team defensive rating the last five years has been vs 

20th (this year)

11th 2018-2019

10th 2017-2018

8th 2016 - 2017

12th 2015-2016

So the notion Detroit's defense have not been good under Drummond is not accurate either; outside of this year of course. Now one can look at the numbers and say he is falling off, but considering he is only 26 I think it's probably more a case of the rest of his team being awful, as Drummond's defensive rating this year of 101 is 10 points lower than the next best mark by a starter (111 by Bruce Brown... best second mark overall is 109 by a bench warmer).

 

 

[HawkItus]

Quote

But—and I cannot stress this enough—Atlanta is not that change. There are basketball reasons, to co-opt a phrase from the late David Stern, that justify Atlanta’s reported interest in Drummond. The Hawks are dead last in defensive rebounding percentage, and Drummond has almost always kept the Pistons near the top of the league in that category. But striving for basic competency is not the point of a rebuild like Atlanta’s, and if a player’s biggest contribution is providing multiple rebounds that certain teams will forfeit anyway, how important can that contribution really be to your bottom line?

Even though Atlanta’s interest in Drummond reeks of ownership impatience, you can understand the thinking behind the fit: Giving Trae Young a huge screen-setter with roll gravity would unlock even more of his superpowers. Drummond would shore up some rim-protection issues on the other end as well, as he’s continually made strides in that area: In each of the last four seasons, Drummond’s total number of at-rim contests have increased while his defensive field goal percentage allowed has decreased.

Drummond’s overall self-improvement in a stagnant situation shouldn’t be taken for granted. After years of shooting below 40 percent from the free throw line, he’s at a career-high 61.4 percent this season. He also sees the floor significantly better than he used to. Give Drummond an extended taste of success—a 10-game winning streak, a playoff win, a 25-rebound performance in a meaningful game in front of the national television audience he’s never really had—and some of his warts will start to fade.

But giving up any asset in order to convince Drummond to sign on long-term and turn around a young lottery dwellar requires a dangerous “I bet Jeff Green will be great for us” kind of energy that doesn’t serve Atlanta. Using cap space on veterans while Young is on his rookie deal makes sense, but drafting for fit (De’Andre Hunter, whom the Hawks traded up to no. 4 for last year) and spending on talent is backward. Do the Hawks even know what they have with John Collins yet? He’s played 10 games this season, and only seven with Young. Couldn’t Atlanta, at least theoretically, wait a few months and sign Drummond outright in free agency without having to sacrifice anything?

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2020/1/6/21051253/andre-drummond-nba-trade-deadline-hawks-raptors-celtics

[Atlantaholic]

6 minutes ago, kg01 said:

And there's my issue.  Defensive metrics need to be taken with a huge grain of salt.  They are a tool that should be used but should not replace full analysis.  It is literally an estimate based on a made up formula.

He's a great rebounder who, despite tremendous athleticism, has been a questionable defender his whole career.  That's hard to do.

Yes, he would be better than what we have.  But the cost is too great to re-sign him based on what he actually brings to the table.

I agree defensive metrics are not great. But look at the context then. See my earlier post on Drummond's defensive rating compared to his teams' overall defensive rating. Drummond is a + defender. No doubt about that. 

[kg01]

Just now, Atlantaholic said:

I agree defensive metrics are not great. But look at the context then. See my earlier post on Drummond's defensive rating compared to his teams' overall defensive rating. Drummond is a + defender. No doubt about that. 

I think all that tells me is this made-up metric values defensive rebounds heavily.

[Gray Mule]

REAL\GM Detroit fans want, for the most part, a first round pick and either Cam of Hunter plus expiring contract or contracts.  Too much.  Way too much.  Could be just a 3 month rental.

[JTB]

19 minutes ago, Vol4ever said:

Apparently the Hawks dont feel like you folks in the back 

As much as I want that to be true that is not necessarily the case. 
I am wondering how serious they really are about Drummond cause I feel like if they really do want him he’d be on the way! I will give it until Wednesday or early Thursday though.

if we don’t see a legitimate report of “talks heating up” or “talks getting closer to be done”....I believe this was either unfortunately a smokescreen or very mild interest in Drummond.

But luckily for me I won’t be that mad I’ve already made it up in my mind that, that indeed is likely the case.

oh and just to throw it out there not that you or anyone else will care what I think but I don’t believe the Brooklyn pick is on the table. I wanted to believe it ...i really did but i just don’t even though Woj reported it was in a deal being discussed. Probably the first time ever I don’t believe something completely from  a Woj rumor.

9 minutes ago, Gray Mule said:

REAL\GM Detroit fans want, for the most part, a first round pick and either Cam of Hunter plus expiring contract or contracts.  Too much.  Way too much.  Could be just a 3 month rental.

They won’t get that so no need to even worry about it

[REHawksFan]

9 minutes ago, kg01 said:

I think all that tells me is this made-up metric values defensive rebounds heavily.

If defensive rating or other defensive metrics including win shares, dpm, and overall team defense (whereby he is tops individually on his team) do not sway you, I'm curious what you are basing your conclusions on? Is it simply watching him play? Reading reports from those that watch him play? Personal dislike? What is it? 

I'm assuming you don't watch 75 Pistons games every year to determine his quality of defense. And since you openly reject defensive metrics (as do I btw to a certain extent), I'm honestly curious what your opinion of Drummond is based on?  

[Vol4ever]

11 minutes ago, Gray Mule said:

REAL\GM Detroit fans want, for the most part, a first round pick and either Cam of Hunter plus expiring contract or contracts.  Too much.  Way too much.  Could be just a 3 month rental.

That definitely is not happening.  

[PSSSHHHRRR87]

11 minutes ago, Gray Mule said:

REAL\GM Detroit fans want, for the most part, a first round pick and either Cam of Hunter plus expiring contract or contracts.  Too much.  Way too much.  Could be just a 3 month rental.

More like FRP + expiring + Bembry.

[Atlantaholic]

18 minutes ago, kg01 said:

I think all that tells me is this made-up metric values defensive rebounds heavily.

Defensive rating is a simple metric and has nothing to do with rebounding. It counts  how many points are given up by a team when a certain player is on the floor and expresses it per 100 posessions.

The fact Drummond's defensive rating is so much lower than the rest of his teammates every season is impressive, it means that he is easily the greatest contributer to his teams' overall defensive rating.  Fact is outside of Drummond detroit has had pretty much nothing on defense, and they still have ranked consistently around 10th despite that.

 

Edited January 6, 2020 by Atlantaholic

[kg01]

2 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

If defensive rating or other defensive metrics including win shares, dpm, and overall team defense (whereby he is tops individually on his team) do not sway you, I'm curious what you are basing your conclusions on? Is it simply watching him play? Reading reports from those that watch him play? Personal dislike? What is it? 

I'm assuming you don't watch 75 Pistons games every year to determine his quality of defense. And since you openly reject defensive metrics (as do I btw to a certain extent), I'm honestly curious what your opinion of Drummond is based on?  

My opinion on him is based on watching him play over the years.  Never liked him, at all.

Now, if we acquire him, I'll muster the strength to root for him along with y'all.  But man I just feel disappointment coming if we do.

I hear you @Atlantaholic and I'm not gonna keep fighting y'all.  Just wanted to register my dislike.  I hope it all works out well for us.  Goodness knows we deserve it.

On a related note, DET fans think they're gonna bend us over and get Reddish, cap relief, at least one 1st and probably a couple 2nds for the chance to rent Drummond.  Yikes

[JayBirdHawk]

3 hours ago, kg01 said:

I'm Team @thecampster on this one.  Down with @AHF.  He's the Enes Kanter of the squawk.  Boooo this man.

I said Len will top out at $8 mil, so team @AHF for me.

[REHawksFan]

7 minutes ago, kg01 said:

On a related note, DET fans think they're gonna bend us over and get Reddish, cap relief, at least one 1st and probably a couple 2nds for the chance to rent Drummond.  Yikes

Some mighty fine powder they got up there in Michigan if you know what I mean.  

[EazyRoc]

1 hour ago, NBASupes said:

You guys are refusing to see the big picture. It's mindblowing to be honest

Nah everybody just doesn’t see things the way you do sometimes. It’d be boring AF if all we did was slap five and agree with each other around here..

[kg01]

3 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I said Len will top out at $8 mil, so team @AHF for me.

*gasp*

Et tu, burd!?

Honestly though, I didn't even read the terms of the bet.  I just want AH to lose.

[Atlantaholic]

20 minutes ago, kg01 said:

My opinion on him is based on watching him play over the years.  Never liked him, at all.

Now, if we acquire him, I'll muster the strength to root for him along with y'all.  But man I just feel disappointment coming if we do.

I hear you @Atlantaholic and I'm not gonna keep fighting y'all.  Just wanted to register my dislike.  I hope it all works out well for us.  Goodness knows we deserve it.

On a related note, DET fans think they're gonna bend us over and get Reddish, cap relief, at least one 1st and probably a couple 2nds for the chance to rent Drummond.  Yikes

I'm no huge fan of Drummond either, and his game is certainly not aesthetically pleasing. But defensive impact is not something that is easy to gauge with a simple eye test unless you are closely following a team, which is why looking at numbers helps. Obviously defensive metrics are not as good as offensive metrics, but taken with context they can tell you a lot as well.

If we should make a Drummond move all depends on a price. Few will argue giving up a second round pick for a rental makes absolute sense. I understand the hesitency for including the Brooklyn pick, though I don't share it.... I wouldn't debate too heatedly on that point though, as I think it's a toss up whether we get more value back long term in that situation.

Personally I don't like next years draft, especially not the prospects going in that 17-20 range, so if we can get the Drummond audition and his bird rights I'm all for it. 

Edited January 6, 2020 by Atlantaholic

[JayBirdHawk]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

If we are looking to do this, I hope Schlenk is on the phone with his agent to agree not to exercise his opt-out.  I don't want to make a move for 4 months only to watch him leave and then have a worst draft pick (presuming we play better with him which I think is guaranteed figuring that we should play better just being healthier) and a missing one (which is reportedly part of getting the deal done).  I'm fine with trading a mid-first for him if TS believes Drummond is part of our future and we have a clear path to keeping him here for a while.  I like us getting 1.5 seasons to test drive before committing to a long-term deal.

This, all this!  I'm not interested in trading a 1st for 4 months on the hope that he resigns.

And I'm really not interested in paying him a max deal either. So it'll have to be less than.

And it's not even about the picking of a player with the BKN pick, it's the value it represents as a tangible asset. 

Similarly we used last year BKN pick to move up to #4 to grab Hunter, so there's value in the pick itself.

 

50 minutes ago, HawkItus said:

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2020/1/6/21051253/andre-drummond-nba-trade-deadline-hawks-raptors-celtics

Quote

Do the Hawks even know what they have with John Collins yet? He’s played 10 games this season, and only seven with Young. Couldn’t Atlanta, at least theoretically, wait a few months and sign Drummond outright in free agency without having to sacrifice anything?

So much truth to this. 

 

20 minutes ago, kg01 said:

*gasp*

Et tu, burd!?

Honestly though, I didn't even read the terms of the bet.  I just want AH to lose.

Lol.

[JayBirdHawk]

3 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

In my mind, all we should be focused on right now is to flip one of these dead HUGE contracts, for a guy who could possibly stabilize the interior from a rebound, defensive, and offensive standpoint. for the next 1.5 years.  Then when 2021 comes around, we can then make a decision as to either keep him long term, or let him go.

That's only if he picks up his option. All he's indicated  earlier in the year is he's looking forward to exercising his option and becoming a free agent in 2020.

[JayBirdHawk]

2 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

If I'm the Hawks, I'd simply toss them Chandler + a future 1st ( Brooklyn ), and see if they bite.

That has been the reported offer. If Detroit wasn't seeking more, I'd assume the deal would be done already.

[thecampster]

5 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

This, all this!  I'm not interested in trading a 1st for 4 months on the hope that he resigns.

And I'm really not interested in paying him a max deal either. So it'll have to be less than.

And it's not even about the picking of a player with the BKN pick, it's the value it represents as a tangible asset. 

Similarly we used last year BKN pick to move up to #4 to grab Hunter, so there's value in the pick itself.

 

So much truth to this. 

 

Lol.

Actually no on the just sign him thing.  It is easier to sign someone once they've moved to your city and know their fit. But if you look at what Atlanta has next year, getting Drummond is as much about convincing the next domino to fall than it is about Drummond.  What follows is the expected room under the LT each team has next year....given the team does not sign any of each free agents and their player options don't opt in.  In the Hawks case, it isn't that they have to convince "someone" to take their money. Its that they have to convince several someones.  Getting Drummond eases the answer for the next someone.  

 

The road gets easier if they add a player and show promise in the 2nd half of the season.

1	Atlanta Hawks							$107,630,997
2	Memphis Grizzlies							$82,897,986
3	Cleveland Cavaliers							$62,251,877
4	Charlotte Hornets							$60,032,424
5	New Orleans Pelicans							$57,869,012
6	Toronto Raptors							$54,403,740
7	Phoenix Suns							$49,230,605
8	Washington Wizards							$43,250,530
9	New York Knicks							$42,402,796
10	Portland Trail Blazers							$41,662,399
11	Detroit Pistons							$38,500,922