KB's thoughts on team building

[KB21]

22 minutes ago, LastDon said:

Exactly! If we not Talking KAT KD Booker or some young player of that caliber then I know all this is just talk..No way are the hawks that dumb to give up a future allstar for scraps..

How many high draft picks have to crap out for some to realize that drafting in the top 3 isn’t all it is cracked up to be?

[macdaddy]

18 minutes ago, KB21 said:

How many high draft picks have to crap out for some to realize that drafting in the top 3 isn’t all it is cracked up to be?

Huh?  Ayton, Bagley, Doncic, Fultz, Ball, Tatum, Simmons, Ingram, Brown,  Towns, Russel, Okafor.

That's 1 out of 12 that's crapped out.   I could see criticizing the mid lottery but top 3 is your best chance to land elite talent.

[KB21]

4 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

Huh?  Ayton, Bagley, Doncic, Fultz, Ball, Tatum, Simmons, Ingram, Brown,  Towns, Russel, Okafor.

That's 1 out of 12 that's crapped out.   I could see criticizing the mid lottery but top 3 is your best chance to land elite talent.

Ayton, Bagley, Fultz, Ball, Ingram, Russel, and Okafor have not lived up to expectations.  

Edited February 4, 2020 by KB21

[macdaddy]

1 minute ago, KB21 said:

Ayton, Bagley, Fultz, Ball, Ingram, Russel, and Okafor have not lived up to expectations.  

= "crapped out".   Come on man.   Like you wouldn't want every single one of those guys outside of Okafor on the Hawks right now.  

[KB21]

7 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

= "crapped out".   Come on man.   Like you wouldn't want every single one of those guys outside of Okafor on the Hawks right now.  

I wouldn’t.  None of them helps a team win.

Those guys can only win in AAU ball.

Edited February 4, 2020 by KB21

[AHF]

42 minutes ago, KB21 said:

I wouldn’t.  None of them helps a team win.

Those guys can only win in AAU ball.

You would be the only GM in the league who wouldn’t jump to add Ayton, Bagley, Ingram, etc.
 

[KB21]

7 minutes ago, AHF said:

You would be the only GM in the league who wouldn’t jump to add Ayton, Bagley, Ingram, etc.
 

I would also be winning and not wasting time trying to “develop” those players.

[sturt]

@KB21, the only real currency you have in professional sports is either cash or talent you've signed and developed.

As to the former, you have the same regulations that govern your spending on player acquisition that apply to the other 29 teams.

As to the latter, this is where you can gain advantage, but mainly only if you have a general manager with some Jerry West DNA in him, otherwise, you're a GM who is a slave to random chance and over time is likely to be average... because, that's what everyone generally is, by definition.

Whether one wants to think Schlenk is good at young player assessment is its own other question.

But the principle holds regardless... find yourself a GM who appears to have above-average ability in the evaluation of younger players, and that is a major step toward... eventually, because it's going to take time naturally... setting your franchise up for success.

Add to that the opportunity to draft higher, and that likelihood of success increases that much more, and exponentially.

Attesting to that is this homework that I did awhile back that some might remember...

 

 

[KB21]

3 minutes ago, sturt said:

@KB21, the only real currency you have in professional sports is either cash or talent you've signed and developed.

As to the former, you have the same regulations that govern your spending on player acquisition that apply to the other 29 teams.

As to the latter, this is where you can gain advantage, but mainly only if you have a general manager with some Jerry West DNA in him, otherwise, you're a GM who is a slave to random chance and over time is likely to be average... because, that's what everyone generally is, by definition.

Whether one wants to think Schlenk is good at young player assessment is its own other question.

But the principle holds regardless... find yourself a GM who appears to have above-average ability in the evaluation of younger players, and that is a major step toward... eventually, because it's going to take time naturally... setting your franchise up for success.

Add to that the opportunity to draft higher, and that likelihood of success increases that much more, and exponentially.

Attesting to that is this homework that I did awhile back that some might remember...

 

 

If that’s the case, then why do the majority of the teams that draft high in the lottery continue to draft in the lottery over a prolonged period of time? 

[sturt]

That's a legitimate question, though I'd have to have some actual data to support the premise you accept.

And even if there is actual data to support your premise, there are some good working theories for why that would be, starting with the idea that some franchises enjoy iconic regard that make them naturally more attractive destinations in free agency. (Which we all agree, I think, isn't a condition ATL has been able to enjoy.) The point being, to the degree that some franchises enjoy that advantage, other franchises are naturally less able to succeed.

And another... already highlighted above... is that, by definition, most teams don't have GMs that are above average in that way (young player assessment).

Elite players capable of leading your team to a championship are scarce. Of course. There are 30 teams competing, and in any given year, only a handful are legitimate contenders for a championship, sometimes not even a handful, and only one gets to the summit.

But if you're going to win a championship, you practically have to get one. And if you're going to get one, the most likely way of the options available to you is to get him as the #1 pick in the draft. Or if not, the #2 or #3. Or if not the #2 or #3, the #4 or #5. Once you get past 5, those chances begin to seriously diminish statistically.

[Plainview1981]

41 minutes ago, KB21 said:

I would also be winning and not wasting time trying to “develop” those players.

To me, you’re not really winning until you’re a finals contender.

Being a playoff team means very little. Unless you make an impact when you get there... It doesn’t really mean anything in the long run.

[KB21]

26 minutes ago, sturt said:

That's a legitimate question, though I'd have to have some actual data to support the premise you accept.

And even if there is actual data to support your premise, there are some good working theories for why that would be, starting with the idea that some franchises enjoy iconic regard that make them naturally more attractive destinations in free agency. (Which we all agree, I think, isn't a condition ATL has been able to enjoy.) The point being, to the degree that some franchises enjoy that advantage, other franchises are naturally less able to succeed.

And another... already highlighted above... is that, by definition, most teams don't have GMs that are above average in that way (young player assessment).

Elite players capable of leading your team to a championship are scarce. Of course. There are 30 teams competing, and in any given year, only a handful are legitimate contenders for a championship, sometimes not even a handful, and only one gets to the summit.

But if you're going to win a championship, you practically have to get one. And if you're going to get one, the most likely way of the options available to you is to get him as the #1 pick in the draft. Or if not, the #2 or #3. Or if not the #2 or #3, the #4 or #5. Once you get past 5, those chances begin to seriously diminish statistically.

One of those iconic franchises just spent several years in the lottery with multiple #2 overall picks until they finally got the star player to sign with them an orchestrate the addition of other players.  Had they stood pat and waiting on those lottery picks to develop, they would still be drafting in the lottery.

[JayBirdHawk]

Is Atlanta an iconic franchise? Which Star player has ever wanted to come to Atlanta as a FA?

[KB21]

4 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Is Atlanta an iconic franchise? Which Star player has ever wanted to come to Atlanta as a FA?

So, how many lottery picks do the Hawks need to get out of this cycle?  5?  6?

[JayBirdHawk]

1 minute ago, KB21 said:

So, how many lottery picks do the Hawks need to get out of this cycle?  5?  6?

When you answer my question, I'll answer yours.

[KB21]

Just now, JayBirdHawk said:

When you answer my question, I'll answer yours.

Your question is irrelevant.  

[JayBirdHawk]

Just now, KB21 said:

Your question is irrelevant.  

Riiiight.

[turnermx]

2 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Your question is irrelevant.  

How?

[sturt]

30 minutes ago, KB21 said:

One of those iconic franchises just spent several years in the lottery with multiple #2 overall picks until they finally got the star player to sign with them an orchestrate the addition of other players.  Had they stood pat and waiting on those lottery picks to develop, they would still be drafting in the lottery.

Data doesn't mean cite me some anecdotal case study that you believe fits your narrative.

Data means, go back and do the numbers work just like I've done, for all 30 teams. That is, if you're intellectually honestly looking to figure out the truth, not if you're merely a person holding a conclusion in search of some rationale to support that.

Mind you, I went into the exploration I did above with a genuine question of whether Schlenk was objectively on good ground to be taking the tack he was taking. There's no shortage of posts in the archives of this board of me being critical of Schlenk and questioning his thinking.

So, in this case, why not take an hour or so and take the last 20 years and analyze whether your premise holds... it's okay if it does, and it's okay if it doesnt, and it's really, really okay to know one way or the other... or if it's something in-between. Then, see if you can offer some working theories that address why it turned out as it did, and having that, some working theories that address your original, legitimate question.

 

 

And with that, I'll be pushing pause on this and other conversations... Tuesday's a travel day for me, and Wednesday will be catching-up day in the office... and Thursday... trade deadline day... will be a long meeting day, unfortunately.

[Blunt91]

1 hour ago, KB21 said:

I would also be winning and not wasting time trying to “develop” those players.

You know Ingram is an Allstar reserve this year right?