Coronavirus!

[Vol4ever]

On 4/11/2020 at 7:07 PM, bleachkit said:

By May, the damn will break. It's already breaking. The doomsday models were well off the mark. The hysteria and panic is waning. Fever is setting in, cabin fever that is. The NBA will be able to resume it's season. If I'm wrong about that, I give the board full licence to a change my avatar until Jan 1st 2021. 

I agree this has been blowed way out of proportion.  Media in this country should be held accountable imo.  They preach doomsday every night.   Of course this is an election year.  

[JayBirdHawk]

Coronavirus has 'reactivated' in more than 100 South Koreans who recovered.

Quote

More than 100 South Koreans who fully recovered from coronavirus have tested positive for a second time, as the country eyes an easing of social-distancing rules, officials said.

The killer virus has “reactivated” in a total 116 patients, with 48 of them in the nation’s coronavirus epicenter of Daegu, according to Yonhap News Agency.

Jeong Eun-kyeong, director of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said the virus may have been reactivated after remaining dormant in the patients, as opposed to them being reinfected.

The country reported last week there were 51 cases of patients testing positive after being cleared of the virus.

Jeong noted, however, there have been no cases of the relapsed patients spreading the virus to anyone else, Yonhap News reported.

https://www.foxnews.com/health/coronavirus-reactivated-more-than-100-south-koreans-who-recovered

 

So can you get this again if you've had it??

[JayBirdHawk]

Governor Kemp Delivers Update on COVID-19

APRIL 13, 2020

More testing soon?

Quote

"As of noon today, we now have 13,315 COVID-19 cases in Georgia spanning 157 counties with 464 deaths. The state lab has processed 3,750 tests, and commercial vendors have processed 53,271 tests. Despite our partnerships and undeniable progress, our testing numbers in Georgia continue to lag. The status quo is unacceptable, and Dr. Toomey is pushing public health officials across our state to collect more specimens and process more tests. This morning, Dr. Toomey held a conference call with public health directors in every region, directing them to expand test sites and revise current testing criteria. We need to be firing on all cylinders to prepare for the days and weeks ahead.

"At Dr. Toomey’s direction, we are expanding testing criteria to include symptomatic critical infrastructure workers and asymptomatic individuals who have had direct contact with positive COVID-19 patients, including family members. We will also continue to prioritize testing for symptomatic individuals with chronic health conditions along with first responders, healthcare workers, law enforcement, and long-term care facility residents and staff regardless of symptoms. And although physicians can continue to refer patients to us for testing at public health sites, state officials can directly schedule people who require testing through local districts.

"Now, I want to be crystal clear: we do not want people showing up unannounced to a hospital, emergency room, or healthcare facility for a test. You need to contact your local health department beforehand to arrange for a test.

https://gov.georgia.gov/press-releases/2020-04-13/governor-kemp-delivers-update-covid-19

 

[kg01]

13 hours ago, Vol4ever said:

I agree this has been blowed way out of proportion.  Media in this country should be held accountable imo.  They preach doomsday every night.   Of course this is an election year.  

It's really weird how, people who think this is 'much ado about nothing', choose to ignore the fact that drastic, country-wide actions are what led to things getting better.

They just sit back like, "See I told you this was no big deal, blah, blah.  Why's the media all hyped up?"

Meanwhile, folks have been working from home for about a month now, which is why the "doomsday" reports haven't come to fruition at this point.

Can't have it both ways, vol.

[AHF]

14 hours ago, Vol4ever said:

I agree this has been blowed way out of proportion.  Media in this country should be held accountable imo.  They preach doomsday every night.   Of course this is an election year.  

This is the way you will absolutely feel if mitigation efforts are successful in reducing in the impact of the disease and ensuring our hospital system doesn't get overloaded.

The people who need to be held accountable, though, are the ones who were warned and did not take steps to start ramping up production of testing, PPE, etc. when lives could have been saved by a timely response.

Thank goodness most people started getting the message but those who didn't put themselves and others in lethal risk.

https://news.yahoo.com/virginia-bishop-vowed-keep-preaching-132652572.html

Quote

Despite authorities urging people to practice social distancing, Glenn held an in-person service on March 22.

“I firmly believe that God is larger than this dreaded virus,” Glenn told his congregation in a sermon that day, according to video of the service shared by WTVR. He vowed to keep preaching “unless I’m in jail or the hospital," the New York Times reported.

Now his daughter is left trying to tell people to start taking this seriously.  Prayers for her and the others who have lost loved ones.

Quote

Glenn and his wife Mother Marcietia Glenn, tested positive for the virus, their daughter Mar-Gerie Crawley said in a video shared on Facebook. Crawley said in an update Friday that Glenn was very sick but had improved slightly after being put on a ventilator.

“I just beg people to understand the severity and the seriousness of this, because people are saying it’s not just about us, it’s about everyone around us," Crawley said.

 

[bleachkit]

14 hours ago, Vol4ever said:

I agree this has been blowed way out of proportion.  Media in this country should be held accountable imo.  They preach doomsday every night.   Of course this is an election year.  

At first, I was shouted down for questioning models that were clearly hyperbolic. Now the refrain is "well everyone knew the numbers were inflated"

 

21 minutes ago, kg01 said:

It's really weird how, people who think this is 'much ado about nothing', choose to ignore the fact that drastic, country-wide actions are what led to things getting better.

They just sit back like, "See I told you this was no big deal, blah, blah.  Why's the media all hyped up?"

Meanwhile, folks have been working from home for about a month now, which is why the "doomsday" reports haven't come to fruition at this point.

Can't have it both ways, vol.

Well yes and no. If measures hadn't been taken it likely would have been worse because more people would have been sick at the same time, thus causing a strain on the health are system regarding a novel virus without an established treatment protocol. That could have been bad, and public officials have to play it safe without knowing much about the new virus. Nevertheless, as more and more data is coming in, it's abundantly clear that Covid-19 is not as lethal as originally thought, and the projection models were not accurate. Antibody tests, along with hospital data, will reveal what percent of the population had Covid-19 based on extrapolation. That's how flu numbers are determined by the CDC. Preliminary results are showing about 15% positive of those sampled on antibody tests. If that holds, most likely it will, extrapolated that's 50,000,000 million people. With a projected 50,000 deaths. 50,000 is 0.1% of 50,000,000. FR=0.1% 

Those are numbers comparably to the flu. It's a different virus, with a different course of illness. But the raw numbers are similar to the flu. 

 

Edited April 14, 2020 by bleachkit

[AHF]

9 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

At first, I was shouted down for questioning models that were clearly hyperbolic. Now the refrain is "well everyone knew the numbers were inflated"

 

My refrain is that when people are reporting the death rate of confirmed COVID cases you should not criticize that number for not being the death rate of all COVID cases, confirmed and unidentified.  Similarly, if models are based on bad assumptions that is worthy of criticism but many of the early models also assumed no social distancing, etc.  It is clear mitigation efforts have been very important and changed the numbers substantially.

Quote

ntibody tests, along with hospital data, will reveal what percent of the population had Covid-19 based on extrapolation. That's how flu numbers are determined by the CDC. Preliminary results are showing about 15% positive of those sampled on antibody tests. If that holds, most likely it will, extrapolated that's 50,000,000 million people. With a projected 50,000 deaths. 50,000 is 0.1% of 50,000,000. FR=0.1% 

The flu numbers determined by the CDC have the same issue you are complaining about, inflating those numbers as well.  The problem for us is totally inadequate testing.  If we had ramped up testing as needed, you would have much better data.  Instead, we largely have only tested people who were severely symptomatic.  Easier to confirm the flu, although many more people just wait out the flu at home.

 

[kg01]

2 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

Well yes and no. If measures hadn't been taken it likely would have been worse because more people would have been sick at the same time, thus causing a strain on the health are system regarding a novel virus without an established treatment protocol. That could have been bad, and public officials have to play it safe without knowing much about the new virus. Nevertheless, as more and more data is coming in, it's abundantly clear that Covid-19 is not as lethal as originally thought, and the projection models were not accurate. Antibody tests, along with hospital data, will reveal what percent of the population had Covid-19 based on extrapolation. That's how flu numbers are determined by the CDC. Preliminary results are showing about 15% positive of those sampled on antibody tests. If that holds, most likely it will, extrapolated that's 50,000,000 million people. With a projected 50,000 deaths. 50,000 is 0.1% of 50,000,000. FR=0.1% 

Those are numbers comparably to the flu. It's a different virus, with a different course of illness. But the raw numbers are similar to the flu. 

 

I hear you, bleachy.  I just find it funny how people try to suggest this was gonna all blow over and choose not to acknowledge the impact precautions had on curtailing things.

[bleachkit]

23 minutes ago, kg01 said:

I hear you, bleachy.  I just find it funny how people try to suggest this was gonna all blow over and choose not to acknowledge the impact precautions had on curtailing things.

 

25 minutes ago, AHF said:

My refrain is that when people are reporting the death rate of confirmed COVID cases you should not criticize that number for not being the death rate of all COVID cases, confirmed and unidentified.  Similarly, if models are based on bad assumptions that is worthy of criticism but many of the early models also assumed no social distancing, etc.  It is clear mitigation efforts have been very important and changed the numbers substantially.

 

The main thing social distancing, shelter and stay, etc. does is prevent everyone from getting it at the same time. Which gives the healthcare system time to breath. Most hospitals in the nation are actually running well below capacity as many elective procedures were delayed. But New York City showed how quickly things can unravel if an outbreak spreads in a place with large numbers people in proximity. You only have so many beds, vents, etc. The hard truth is though, the primary reason for the limited numbers of deaths is that the virus is not as deadly as they thought. Data will surely confirm that.

Edited April 14, 2020 by bleachkit

[kg01]

15 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

 

The main thing social distancing, shelter and stay, etc. does is prevent everyone from getting it at the same time. Which gives the healthcare system time to breath. Most hospitals in the nation are actually running well below capacity as many elective procedures were delayed. But New York City showed how quickly things can unravel if an outbreak spreads in a place with large numbers people in proximity. You only have so many beds, vents, etc. The hard truth is though, the primary reason for the limited numbers of deaths is that the virus is not as deadly as they thought. Data will surely confirm that.

You might want to frame this, 'cause I'll never say it again ... I hope you're right, bleachy.

[macdaddy]

56 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

The hard truth is though, the primary reason for the limited numbers of deaths is that the virus is not as deadly as they thought. Data will surely confirm that.

We'll have to agree to disagree.  the primary reason is the country going on lockdown.  Unprecedented restriction on person to person contact is the reason that the virus isn't spreading as much as it could have been.   Even if you think it's not as deadly as they thought, surely there would be 10, 20, 30 times as many deaths had we not shut most businesses, eliminated public gatherings and stayed in our homes. 

[AHF]

We are still talking about a 9/11 every other day right now.  This isn't a throw away number even with the mitigation.

On the good news, last month was the first March without a school shooting in almost 20 years.

[JayBirdHawk]

The US Media is the easiest to blame - on one hand you have those that may be 'hyping' while another is 'underplaying' - so the truth lies somewhere in between the two. Make it less politics and more about solutions and help.

That's why I like looking at World News to view their responses:

 

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51979654

 

[JayBirdHawk]

3 minutes ago, AHF said:

On the good news, last month was the first March without a school shooting in almost 20 years.

...Wow.

[bleachkit]

1 hour ago, macdaddy said:

We'll have to agree to disagree.  the primary reason is the country going on lockdown.  Unprecedented restriction on person to person contact is the reason that the virus isn't spreading as much as it could have been.   Even if you think it's not as deadly as they thought, surely there would be 10, 20, 30 times as many deaths had we not shut most businesses, eliminated public gatherings and stayed in our homes. 

Do you want to make an avatar bet on that? If you're theory is correct, that fatality rate would have to be a least 1%, 2%, or 3% respectively for your 10x, 20x ,30x projections to be accurate. Antibody tests will reveal the true fatality rate by late May, early June.

Also, nations that are not practicing social distancing would be seeing enormous increases in mortality if your 10x, 20x, 30x theory is correct. They are not.

Edited April 14, 2020 by bleachkit

[macdaddy]

6 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

Do you want to make an avatar bet on that? If you're theory is correct, that fatality rate would have to be a least 1%, 2%, or 3% respectively for your 10x, 20x ,30x projections to be accurate. Antibody tests will reveal the true fatality rate by late May, early June.

Also, nations that are not practicing social distancing would be seeing enormous increases in mortality if your 10x, 20x, 30x theory is correct. They are not.

I'm fine with a bet but there will be no definitive way to measure this so we'd need something more specific.  But are saying you think there wouldn't have been a lot more deaths if there wasn't social distancing?  I'm just not seeing how you think that's the case.  Even if the death rate is as low as you think, the spread of this would still mean lots more deaths if we weren't distancing.

[bleachkit]

9 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

I'm fine with a bet but there will be no definitive way to measure this so we'd need something more specific.  But are saying you think there wouldn't have been a lot more deaths if there wasn't social distancing?  I'm just not seeing how you think that's the case.  Even if the death rate is as low as you think, the spread of this would still mean lots more deaths if we weren't distancing.

What I'm saying is it would not make a difference in 10x, 20x, 30x. Those are doomsday scenarios that already been shown to be erroneous. There are 40 to 50 thousand flu deaths per year. Flu has a FR of 0.1%. Right now we are on flu pace deaths with Covid-19. Meaning, according to your theory, if we had done nothing and had 10x, 20x, 30x more deaths, then that means Covid-19 would have a fatality rate of 1%, 2% or 3%. So our avatar bet would be determined by the fatality rate of Covid-19, determined by extrapolated data from serology tests. That's is how CDC gets their flu numbers.

[bleachkit]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

The US Media is the easiest to blame - on one hand you have those that may be 'hyping' while another is 'underplaying' - so the truth lies somewhere in between the two. Make it less politics and more about solutions and help.

That's why I like looking at World News to view their responses:

 

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51979654

 

Well that's one model. Current data suggests those theoretical nembers are grossly inflated. Here's the fly in the ointment. Why aren't nations not practicing social distancing seeing enormous increases in mortality if that model is correct? By and large they are not.

[macdaddy]

21 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

There are 40 to 50 thousand flu deaths per year. Flu has a FR of 0.1%. Right now we are on flu pace deaths with Covid-19

We are on flu pace deaths having shut down the whole economy and free movement of people.   So how would it be flu like numbers had we not done that?  Doesn't make any sense. 

[bleachkit]

Just now, macdaddy said:

We are on flu pace deaths having shut down the whole economy and free movement of people.   So how would it be flu like numbers had we not done that?  Doesn't make any sense. 

I never said the numbers would be the same. I said they wouldn't be 10x, 20 or 30x like you claim. What do you think the fatality rate of Covid-19 will be when all the data is compiled?