Coronavirus!

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Notice that in this document that they don't talk about deaths, just a downward trend in number of new cases .   But we know they're not testing everybody and will have less incentive to test people now, unless they are really sick.

 

So here you go folks.  Does your state make the cut to reopen soon? 

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/16/politics/read-guidelines-for-opening-america/index.html

 

 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

You know what?  ( bleep ) it.  I'm just going to put this out there.  

 

For minorities, one of the DANGEROUS things that Dr. Birx said in that briefing, was to be able to set up "Sentinel Surveillance" sites that could spot asymptomatic people in "communities of particular vulnerability".  What are those communities you ask?

• Nursing homes
• Inner City federal clinics
• Indigenous populations ( Native Americans )

This will include "contact tracing" of those individuals, which in theory, will lead to possibly finding those who they may have infected. 

While individuals in those groups may be dying from COVID-19 at a higher rate, there is no data out there showing that those groups are the major carriers or spreaders of this virus.  In nursing homes, it's definitely people from outside of those facilities who are infected the elderly population.

In inner cities, the fact that most public transportation is still open, could be a major source for carriers to contract the disease.

But I knew that as soon as they put those statistics out there about Black people dying at a higher rate from COVID, that it may have the potential to frame this as a "Black disease" in America, despite the disease not discriminating at all around the world. 

And if that's the case, we in those communities have to watch out for ALL scenarios . .  including random discrimination in entering certain facilities that are frequented by mostly non-minority clintele . . . up to wacked out individuals that may feel the need to take matters into their own hands, and get "rid of" some of the sick.

 

As we tread through this in the coming weeks, everyone please stay safe . . . minorities and non-minorities.  But to my minorities, we know what this could be.  Protect yourself and your family . . unconditionally.

[thecampster]

18 hours ago, bleachkit said:

The original models of Covid-19's  fatality rate are probably erroneous. I have discussed this extensively throughout the thread. When all the data is computed and studied in a couple months based on deaths, hospitalizations and serological antibody data, it will show Covid-19 is not nearly as deadly as originally feared. If I'm wrong about that, tar and feather me. But as long as common sense measures are taken, including testing, social distancing and the like, then the risk posed by professional team sports in a controlled setting is extremely low. Certainly lower than going to the grocery store and other ordinary activities, where customers and employees aren't being tested for Covid-19 upon entry. There's caution, theres safeguarding, and then there's irrational paranoia.

World confirmed cases.  2.18 million, 147,000 deaths. kill rate 6.7%.

Italy sample confirmed cases. 169,000. 22,000 deaths. kill rate 13%

US sample confirmed cases. 671,500 cases. 33000 deaths. kill rate (not-matured) 5%. (we'll get the real numbers in a few weeks).

 

Explain to me how a 13% kill rate or even a 6.% kill in rate in people showing symptoms is paranoia?

 

The US saw an estimated 80,000 flu related deaths in 2017-18. That without any quarantine measures or social distancing and it was one of the worst flu seasons on record.  But this thing has killed at least 33,000 people in a little over a month with social distancing, add campaigns and quarantines. Yah...irrational paranoia.

Think about who you're talking to. I'm a crazed conservative libertarian and I'm saying "take this seriously". If anyone on this board would be out marching in the streets for freedom of movement and screw the government its me and I'm saying....lets wait a bit longer before we charge after that almighty dollar. @Sothron is my buddy and I really don't want to get him sick.

 

 

[JayBirdHawk]

Quote

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. -- Denver Broncos Pro Bowl linebacker Von Miller has tested positive for the coronavirus, he told 9NEWS in Denver on Thursday.

"It's true," Miller told 9NEWS by phone. "I've just been here in the crib, and I started to get a little cough. You know, I have asthma, and I started getting a little cough a couple days ago. My girlfriend ... she told me when I was asleep, she said my cough, it didn't sound normal."

Miller, a unanimous choice for the NFL All-Decade Team, said a nebulizer didn't help, and his assistant persuaded him to go to the doctor to get tested on Tuesday.

"It's crazy,'' Miller told 9NEWS. "I have to be quarantined here at the house. There's not really any medicine or anything like that. Dr. [Steve] Geraghty told me if my breathing changed ... honestly, I'm still new to this. This is like an hour [since learning I tested positive]. I'm not sure what's going on, but I tell you what, I'm in good spirits. I'm still Von. I'm not feeling sick or hurting or anything like that."

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29046156/broncos-star-von-miller-tests-positive-coronavirus

 

[macdaddy]

11 minutes ago, thecampster said:

The US saw an estimated 80,000 flu related deaths in 2017-18. That without any quarantine measures or social distancing and it was one of the worst flu seasons on record.  But this thing has killed at least 33,000 people in a little over a month with social distancing, add campaigns and quarantines.

exactly

[JayBirdHawk]

Hopeful!

 

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/16/health/coronavirus-remdesivir-trial/index.html

 

[macdaddy]

5 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Hopeful!

 

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/16/health/coronavirus-remdesivir-trial/index.html

 

Wow i hope this is true.  I saw a similar thing 2 weeks ago about chroloquine (sp?) and zinc combo but never heard anything else.    A really effective treatment would be a huge game changer.

[Dnice]

In case anyone is interested..

 

https://store.nba.com/atlanta-hawks/adult-atlanta-hawks-fanatics-branded-cloth-face-covering-made-in-usa/t-36709484+p-2564430778887+z-9-817427814?_ref=p-CLP:m-GRID:i-r7c1:po-22

[bleachkit]

1 hour ago, thecampster said:

World confirmed cases.  2.18 million, 147,000 deaths. kill rate 6.7%.

Italy sample confirmed cases. 169,000. 22,000 deaths. kill rate 13%

US sample confirmed cases. 671,500 cases. 33000 deaths. kill rate (not-matured) 5%. (we'll get the real numbers in a few weeks).

 

Explain to me how a 13% kill rate or even a 6.% kill in rate in people showing symptoms is paranoia?

 

The US saw an estimated 80,000 flu related deaths in 2017-18. That without any quarantine measures or social distancing and it was one of the worst flu seasons on record.  But this thing has killed at least 33,000 people in a little over a month with social distancing, add campaigns and quarantines. Yah...irrational paranoia.

Think about who you're talking to. I'm a crazed conservative libertarian and I'm saying "take this seriously". If anyone on this board would be out marching in the streets for freedom of movement and screw the government its me and I'm saying....lets wait a bit longer before we charge after that almighty dollar. @Sothron is my buddy and I really don't want to get him sick.

 

 

Oh jeez, this is like the 50th time I had to explain this. That fatality rate is based on confirmed cases, people that had symptoms severe enough to seek treatment. The number of asymptomatic cases could be ten times, twenty, thirty times that number. The confirmed cases would represent 0.2% of the population. Serology testing might show 1 out of every 10 people have Covid-19 antibodies, orders of magnitude greater than the confirmed cases. Celebrities, athletes, politicians were already testing positive, meaning Covid-19 was likely already spread out to a large swath of the population. In 2009 H1N1, infected 60 million in the US, nearly a billion world wide. My estimate is 0.2 to 0.3%. For some perspective, Spanish Flu had a fatality rate of 2% and killed 60 million people despite quarantines and other measures that were taken. 60 million. So Covid-19, with a supposed fatality rate twice as high as the deadly Spanish Flu, has killed only 150k? I am 100% certain about this. 

[bleachkit]

54 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

exactly

What do you think the actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is? 

[bleachkit]

58 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

Wow i hope this is true.  I saw a similar thing 2 weeks ago about chroloquine (sp?) and zinc combo but never heard anything else.    A really effective treatment would be a huge game changer.

Hydroxychloroquine is just some anti-malarial drug Trump is pumping, not sure why. Remdesivir is the real deal though.

[macdaddy]

10 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

What do you think the actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is? 

Probably 1% or maybe as high as 2%.   If you look at South Korea where they have testing hundreds of thousands of people, a very small percentage of those tested were actually positive.  I think well over 90% were negative.   So it's unlikely there are significant number of undiagnosed.   

Out of the positives they are at a 2% death rate and this is with the majority of positives being under 60.   

This is the best controlled stats we have.  And supports your opinion that the death rates we see of 6% or more are inflated because of untested cases.  But it doesn't support a death rate of .2% either.   

[AHF]

59 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

Ok let's make an avatar bet. 

NO BETS ON DEATHS ON THIS SITE. 

@bleachkit

[JayBirdHawk]

1 hour ago, Dnice said:

In case anyone is interested..

 

https://store.nba.com/atlanta-hawks/adult-atlanta-hawks-fanatics-branded-cloth-face-covering-made-in-usa/t-36709484+p-2564430778887+z-9-817427814?_ref=p-CLP:m-GRID:i-r7c1:po-22

Thanks. I made a point that if masks become recommended, Nike et al. Will  be producing fashionable face coverings.

 

2 hours ago, macdaddy said:

Wow i hope this is true.  I saw a similar thing 2 weeks ago about chroloquine (sp?) and zinc combo but never heard anything else.    A really effective treatment would be a huge game changer.

Existing drug that was used to treat other conditions but wasn't a clinical trial to prove real results.

[bleachkit]

12 minutes ago, AHF said:

NO BETS ON DEATHS ON THIS SITE. 

@bleachkit

I'm betting on fewer deaths than expected is how I look at it.

[AHF]

10 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

I'm betting on fewer deaths than expected is how I look at it.

I'm going to give a time out if the topic is brought up again.  This isn't happening so please drop it and don't bring it back up.  Feel free to contact each other off the site and continue that dialogue.

[Lurker]

Phoebe Putney announced over 1200 recoveries today. For a smaller SW GA hospital that's had it's issues that's a good sign. That's the kind of hospital that you'd expect to take it worse. They still have a lot of work to do but based off what they said, it's going well so far.

[macdaddy]

Just to be clear I'm not interested in any bets.   It's great that people think the impact of this is less than we think but i think it's important to not accept that as a fact just because it's repeated.  The numbers that are out there in the real world don't support getting complacent based on hunches.  I'm not trying to be political or insult anyone.  I just think it's important that we continue to stay informed because the reasons we took such drastic measures haven't changed yet.  I hope they do.   I'm anxious to get back to some normalcy.  

[bleachkit]

17 minutes ago, AHF said:

I'm going to give a time out if the topic is brought up again.  This isn't happening so please drop it and don't bring it back up.  Feel free to contact each other off the site and continue that dialogue.

Ok no bets, but I will continue to make my case. Serology data is going to be very hard to dispute when it becomes available.

[bleachkit]

2 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

Just to be clear I'm not interested in any bets.   It's great that people think the impact of this is less than we think but i think it's important to not accept that as a fact just because it's repeated.  The numbers that are out there in the real world don't support getting complacent based on hunches.  I'm not trying to be political or insult anyone.  I just think it's important that we continue to stay informed because the reasons we took such drastic measures haven't changed yet.  I hope they do.   I'm anxious to get back to some normalcy.  

My angle isn't political. It's entirely data driven.