Coronavirus!

[thecampster]

14 hours ago, bleachkit said:

@macdaddy @AHF @thecampster

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/coronavirus-antibody-testing-shows-la-county-outbreak-is-up-to-55-times-bigger-than-reported-cases.html

Is anyone still going to say I'm wrong?

So here we go again.  Test of 863 people. We don't know the specifics but we are drawing conclusions on a population of 10 million based on a study of 863 with no idea the controls on the testing.  Let me explain this for you "again".  Test 863....4.1% positive means 35 tested positive.  Lets assume for the moment there are flaws in the study that oversampled a community area or some other flaw.  Lets say 10 false positives. Instead of 55x more cases, you now have 16x more cases.  

Because the sample is so low, not controlled, not yet peer reviewed, no idea who funded it, methodology, etc, as few as 10 cases could destroy the study sample.  There are approximately 10 million people in the county. Meaning they are estimating 410,000 people have antibodies and some level of exposure at some level. Current results are almost 13823 cases and 619 deaths. So that actually works out to 29 times as many, not 55. You are also testing in one of least hospitable places for Covid in the country, Sunny LA, meaning they could have picked it up but in a weakened state due to sunlight and humidity. Infection in LA does not = infection representative of Detroit. Pointing to a sampling of 863 in a dense population area and trying to equate that to a country of 320 million is nonsense of the highest order.

To AHF's point. You aren't getting so much push back because you are right or wrong. You are getting push back because what you are stating is dangerous. You are minimizing the threat which will lead to people acting stupid, people dying and this thing dragging out 6 months longer than need be.  Three more weeks of quarantine means a great lessening of factors and greater immunity later.  

Lastly, this thing has a median incubation period of just over 5 days and taking as long as 2 weeks for some to present symptoms. Many people not presenting symptoms yet are still contagious. It is safe to assume that many of the 35 could have been infected but the virus was still ramping up in their bodies throwing off the numbers considerably. People taking an antibody test on April 18 could have gotten infected as early as April 6 and not be showing symptoms yet. Oh so flawed.

[Spud2nique]

53 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

I never lose bets Spud, you should know that.

Well if the NBA isn’t back by May,  you will be 1-1. Wow ya ur a real dynasty ala the scrubs. 
 

The shined ...

 

ANYBODY CAN WIN THE LOTTERY

-White men CAN’T jump (real talk)

[bleachkit]

4 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

Well if the NBA isn’t back by May,  you will be 1-1. Wow ya ur a real dynasty ala the scrubs. 
 

The shined ...

 

ANYBODY CAN WIN THE LOTTERY

-White men CAN’T jump (real talk)

Oh no, I made no bets on when the NBA comes back. A lot of factors there, and Covid-19 data is not  necessarily chief among them. Optics, public policies, logistical, legal and otherwise. I am confident a season will resume, but when or in what capacity I have no clue. But I do think the NBA is trying to prepare for multiple scenarios behind the scenes.

[bleachkit]

1 hour ago, kg01 said:

Yikes.  Cocky much?

You're the Swaggy P of hawksquawk.

I'd prefer to characterize it as a cool, understated confidence.

[Spud2nique]

29 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

Oh no, I made no bets on when the NBA comes back. A lot of factors there, and Covid-19 data is not  necessarily chief among them. Optics, public policies, logistical, legal and otherwise. I am confident a season will resume, but when or in what capacity I have no clue. But I do think the NBA is trying to prepare for multiple scenarios behind the scenes.

Nope sorry you said in May so...

8 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

I'd prefer to characterize it as a cool, understated confidence.

With jean shorts and hiked up socks  

[kg01]

9 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

I'd prefer to characterize it as a cool, understated confidence.

Ok, so more like the Ricky Davis of the squawk then?

Are you gonna pay up when the games don't start in May as you predicted?

[Spud2nique]

1 minute ago, kg01 said:

Are you gonna pay up when the games don't start in May as you predicted?

He’s pullin a Peo.

[High5]

It’s hard to credit anyone who thinks it’s fine to go back to normal (or close to it) because the death rate isn’t that high. 1) It’s messed up to think that way and 2) It shows they clearly don’t understand why flattening the curve is important. “Healthcare is managing to keep up in most areas during lockdown so obviously they’ll be fine after the flood gates open.” How does anyone think that makes sense?

[AHF]

19 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

He’s pullin a Peo.

Peo made a bet.  Bleach didn't.  Bleach will just have to eat his prediction on the NBA startup if it doesn't prove out.  This is like KB with his predictions about the 76ers that proved so wrong.  No bet to enforce.  Just KB playing "I can't hear you, I can't see that" when the topic is brought up.  I have a feeling bleach will own it and not be too bothered if he ends up wrong.

[thecampster]

Reading with a grain of salt...but still good info.

https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Coronavirus-has-mutated-into-at-least-30-different-strains-new-study-finds-625333

[bleachkit]

1 hour ago, kg01 said:

Ok, so more like the Ricky Davis of the squawk then?

Are you gonna pay up when the games don't start in May as you predicted?

I have been arguing over fatality rates. That has been my theme. I don't know when the NBA will start back up, but I think that it will. Mark Cuban himself said May, but that seems to aggressive right now. I said May if widespread testing was available, and it's not. 

[JayBirdHawk]

38 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

I have been arguing over fatality rates. That has been my theme. I don't know when the NBA will start back up, but I think that it will. Mark Cuban himself said May, but that seems to aggressive right now. I said May if widespread testing was available, and it's not. 

I understand your focus on fatality rates but my concern has always been the spread rate and the number of accumulated deaths in a short time span. It's the volume of death in a short time span.

On March 11th when the NBA shuttered, the US had 38 deaths. 40 days later +/- 40,000. Mass graves, overwhelmed funeral homes, patients dying alone without loved ones, loved ones can't have proper burials etc.

Latest from Mark Cuban (3 days ago)

Quote

Basketball fans are going to have to be patient if they want their sport to return.

Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban said the NBA doesn’t have a plan in place to return to basketball, echoing the sentiments made by commissioner Adam Silver on Friday.

“There’s not really a plan we can put together,” Cuban said in an appearance on CNN Saturday. “The biggest mistake we can make is trying to rush. I mean, that’s the topic going on around the country, when do we start acting as if things are normal? When can we dip our toes into opening up businesses?

“There are just a thousand different little elements that have to be taken into consideration,” Cuban added. ” … There are so many components that we have to explore and get right because we can’t put anybody at risk.”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.boston.com/sports/nba/2020/04/18/mark-cuban-nba-return-coronavirus/amp

 

[thecampster]

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11441636/john-mcdaniel-killed-coronavirus-dismissing-political-ploy/

AHEM!!! Famous last posts and all.

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

[JayBirdHawk]

I said the name sounded familiar - played Footbal at FSU:

 

 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

To me, the only chance the NBA has in starting up anytime soon, is to go to a state or an area in which

• There are a very low amount of daily new cases in a particular area ( 5 and under ) that is continuing to decline
• That they can universally test and quarantine EVERYBODY involved in the playing, coaching, production, and servicing of these games . . . including police and medical personne

Or . . . people are so desperate to make that money, that they simply make the players sign some sort of "no fault" clause that states the player(s) can't sue the league if one of them gets sick from COVID.  In fact, businesses around the world may start to do this.

[bleachkit]

8 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

To me, the only chance the NBA has in starting up anytime soon, is to go to a state or an area in which

• There are a very low amount of daily new cases in a particular area ( 5 and under ) that is continuing to decline
• That they can universally test and quarantine EVERYBODY involved in the playing, coaching, production, and servicing of these games . . . including police and medical personne

Or . . . people are so desperate to make that money, that they simply make the players sign some sort of "no fault" clause that states the player(s) can't sue the league if one of them gets sick from COVID.  In fact, businesses around the world may start to do this.

It's a very fluid situation. MLB and MLS have openly talked about June. Nothing definitive. But I think once one league starts that might open up the flood gates, assuming testing and other measures are available.

[JayBirdHawk]

So you still need to meet eligibility requirements to get tested.

Quote

The test kit costs $119, and potential customers must complete a survey about their eligibility for testing before receiving one. The test's website says it will not be available in New York, New Jersey, Maryland and Rhode Island. New York and New Jersey are the two states with the highest number of coronavirus cases and deaths. CBS News has reached out to the company for more information.

 

 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

1 minute ago, JayBirdHawk said:

So you still need to meet eligibility requirements to get tested.

 

 

 

SMH . . . they don't want people to be tested.

I just looked up how much a home pregnancy test cost.  $10

But they want $119?  $130 with tax.

[thecampster]

@Bleachkit 

So you really, really might want to read this article buddy.  It states almost verbatim many of the objections I brought up, and throws in a few of their own explaining why the study shouldn't be trusted. Specifically they discuss the problem with soliciting via Facebook ads and how that would draw a much larger participant group who may have concealed they believed they already had symptoms.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/new-studies-suggest-huge-undercount-of-coronavirus-infections-but-are-they-right-161418566.html