Coronavirus!

[hawkman]

19 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

You know what?  ( bleep ) it.  I'm just going to put this out there.  

 

For minorities, one of the DANGEROUS things that Dr. Birx said in that briefing, was to be able to set up "Sentinel Surveillance" sites that could spot asymptomatic people in "communities of particular vulnerability".  What are those communities you ask?

• Nursing homes
• Inner City federal clinics
• Indigenous populations ( Native Americans )

This will include "contact tracing" of those individuals, which in theory, will lead to possibly finding those who they may have infected. 

While individuals in those groups may be dying from COVID-19 at a higher rate, there is no data out there showing that those groups are the major carriers or spreaders of this virus.  In nursing homes, it's definitely people from outside of those facilities who are infected the elderly population.

In inner cities, the fact that most public transportation is still open, could be a major source for carriers to contract the disease.

But I knew that as soon as they put those statistics out there about Black people dying at a higher rate from COVID, that it may have the potential to frame this as a "Black disease" in America, despite the disease not discriminating at all around the world. 

And if that's the case, we in those communities have to watch out for ALL scenarios . .  including random discrimination in entering certain facilities that are frequented by mostly non-minority clintele . . . up to wacked out individuals that may feel the need to take matters into their own hands, and get "rid of" some of the sick.

 

As we tread through this in the coming weeks, everyone please stay safe . . . minorities and non-minorities.  But to my minorities, we know what this could be.  Protect yourself and your family . . unconditionally.

You're saying what many are thinking and you said it in a much more diplomatic way than I could have. Let's just say I'm not at all pleased with this recent narrative that's being repeated in the media lately. I'm also not pleased that the country where this all originated from had the audacity to use this narrative in an attempt to escape accountability for their handling of this pandemic. 

[JayBirdHawk]

On 4/16/2020 at 1:15 PM, JayBirdHawk said:

This happened early in March IIRC.

The player has 'recovered' from the virus.

This leads me to wonder how many other players have tested positive but hasn't been reported. 

Follow up to my previous thoughts/suspicions:

 

 

[JayBirdHawk]

Quote

The Chinese city of Wuhan, where the coronavirus originated last year, has raised its official Covid-19 death toll by 50%, adding 1,290 fatalities.

Wuhan officials attributed the new figure to updated reporting and deaths outside hospitals. China has insisted there was no cover-up.

It has been accused of downplaying the severity of its virus outbreak.

Wuhan's 11 million residents spent months in strict lockdown conditions, which have only recently been eased.

The latest official figures bring the death toll in the city in China's central Hubei province to 3,869, increasing the national total to more than 4,600.

I'm still skeptical of China's reporting.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-52321529

 

[bleachkit]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/17/santa-clara-covid-19-antibody-study-suggests-broad-asymptomatic-spread.html

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/health/santa-clara-coronavirus-infections-study/index.html

Asymptomatic cases are 50x to 85x times greater than the number of confirmed cases in this study. I know what I'm talking about. I'm 100% right.

Edited April 18, 2020 by bleachkit

[bleachkit]

thecampster, macdaddy, AHF, etc.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/health/santa-clara-coronavirus-infections-study/index.html

If 50 times more people have had the infection, the death rate could drop by that same factor, putting it "somewhere between 'little worse than the flu' to 'twice as bad as the flu' in terms of case fatality rate," Bhattacharya said.

This is just the beginning. More antibody testing will reveal enormous disparities between confirmed cases and asymptomatic ones.  I was actually underestimating the amount, if anything.

Edited April 18, 2020 by bleachkit

[TheNorthCydeRises]

41 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

thecampster, macdaddy, AHF, etc.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/health/santa-clara-coronavirus-infections-study/index.html

If 50 times more people have had the infection, the death rate could drop by that same factor, putting it "somewhere between 'little worse than the flu' to 'twice as bad as the flu' in terms of case fatality rate," Bhattacharya said.

This is just the beginning. More antibody testing will reveal enormous disparities between confirmed cases and asymptomatic ones.  I was actually underestimating the amount, if anything.

 

If this is the case, why don't the governments of the world make a commitment to create as many tests as possible, and have widespread testing?

I'll use my state for example, since Tennessee has consistently had a lower death rate in relation to number of confirmed cases.  And this is without strict social distancing measures outside of businesses where large people may gather are shut down ( outside of restaurants )

 

Right now we're at 6,589 confirmed cases . . . with "only' 142 deaths.   That's a 2.15% death rate among confirmed cases.

Tennessee has also tested 87,273 people.   So if you compare the confirmed cases to number of tests, this means that 7,5% of people getting tested have COVID-19.  And that has been a consistent number since I was mildly sick about 4 weeks ago.  

 

But if you multiply the number of confirmed cases by 50, we would now have 329,450 confirmed cases with still only 149 deaths.   This would presumably include all of those mildly sick people as well as asymptomatic people.   In a state with 6.829 million people, this would me that only 5% of the state would have COVID-19.

This also would mean that the death rate would be 0.004% . . . that's even less than the flu.

In Tennessee, we're also see that 60% of the confirmed cases are people aged 50 or under.   But that same group only accounts for 8% of the deaths.

 

So if these are the "actual' numbers, why isn't the White House setting up a national system in which everyone ( healthy or not ) can get virus tested or antibody tested?  Don't leave it up to individual states to do this, because it would be slow and not uniform across the board. Decide on a system in which this could be done nationwide, and roll with that.

This would give them the data that could prove that COVID-19 isn't nearly as bad as people say it is, and there would be no need for a massive shutdown of the world's economy.

 

It's a reason why they aren't doing that though.

[bleachkit]

19 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

If this is the case, why don't the governments of the world make a commitment to create as many tests as possible, and have widespread testing?

I'll use my state for example, since Tennessee has consistently had a lower death rate in relation to number of confirmed cases.  And this is without strict social distancing measures outside of businesses where large people may gather are shut down ( outside of restaurants )

 

Right now we're at 6,589 confirmed cases . . . with "only' 142 deaths.   That's a 2.15% death rate among confirmed cases.

Tennessee has also tested 87,273 people.   So if you compare the confirmed cases to number of tests, this means that 7,5% of people getting tested have COVID-19.  And that has been a consistent number since I was mildly sick about 4 weeks ago.  

 

But if you multiply the number of confirmed cases by 50, we would now have 329,450 confirmed cases with still only 149 deaths.   This would presumably include all of those mildly sick people as well as asymptomatic people.   In a state with 6.829 million people, this would me that only 5% of the state would have COVID-19.

This also would mean that the death rate would be 0.004% . . . that's even less than the flu.

In Tennessee, we're also see that 60% of the confirmed cases are people aged 50 or under.   But that same group only accounts for 8% of the deaths.

 

So if these are the "actual' numbers, why isn't the White House setting up a national system in which everyone ( healthy or not ) can get virus tested or antibody tested?  Don't leave it up to individual states to do this, because it would be slow and not uniform across the board. Decide on a system in which this could be done nationwide, and roll with that.

This would give them the data that could prove that COVID-19 isn't nearly as bad as people say it is, and there would be no need for a massive shutdown of the world's economy.

 

It's a reason why they aren't doing that though.

The main reason testing has struggled to take off are technical ones. Chinese made tests used by other countries were deemed unreliable by the US government. So now finally quality tests are being made, but there aren't enough of them yet. Tests have high quality control standards for manufacturing, it's hard to rattle off tens of millions of them like bags of chips. 

[sturt]

[thecampster]

11 hours ago, bleachkit said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/17/santa-clara-covid-19-antibody-study-suggests-broad-asymptomatic-spread.html

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/health/santa-clara-coronavirus-infections-study/index.html

Asymptomatic cases are 50x to 85x times greater than the number of confirmed cases in this study. I know what I'm talking about. I'm 100% right.

I am always fascinated when people pick and choose things to make their arguments. Hard facts. 3.5 million tests in America, 706,000 confirmed cases. Over 1% of the country tested, 20% confirmed infection rate.  If the infection rate is, what you say it is here then the test is 80% inaccurate because 85x more widespread = 1/4 of the country.  Basic math man...basic math.

[thecampster]

I'm still fascinated with how you are trying to downplay 33000 dead in 6 weeks.  33000 = 1 in every 10,000 people just died in a 6 week period of time in the US.  These are hard numbers, these aren't models and guesstimates like that CNN health study. They are hard numbers. https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

 

Just click US and all the numbers are there to read. Or go to admin 2 and you can see state by state, county by county.  I live in a county of 168,000 people, 5 are dead and we are doing better than most.  3000 people lost their lives on 9/11 and the whole world lost their minds. 17,000 are dead in New York in 6 weeks almost 6x as many and you're like meh...no big deal.

[bleachkit]

30 minutes ago, thecampster said:

I'm still fascinated with how you are trying to downplay 33000 dead in 6 weeks.  33000 = 1 in every 10,000 people just died in a 6 week period of time in the US.  These are hard numbers, these aren't models and guesstimates like that CNN health study. They are hard numbers. https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

 

Just click US and all the numbers are there to read. Or go to admin 2 and you can see state by state, county by county.  I live in a county of 168,000 people, 5 are dead and we are doing better than most.  3000 people lost their lives on 9/11 and the whole world lost their minds. 17,000 are dead in New York in 6 weeks almost 6x as many and you're like meh...no big deal.

I'm not downplaying the deaths. I'm downplaying the fatality rate. That was the specific thing we were debating.

 

35 minutes ago, thecampster said:

I am always fascinated when people pick and choose things to make their arguments. Hard facts. 3.5 million tests in America, 706,000 confirmed cases. Over 1% of the country tested, 20% confirmed infection rate.  If the infection rate is, what you say it is here then the test is 80% inaccurate because 85x more widespread = 1/4 of the country.  Basic math man...basic math.

My friend, I don't know the exact number of asymptomatic cases versus confirmed cases. This is one study in California. But I used it to illustrate how the number of actual cases when you extrapolate serology data (that is how you the get the approximate real number) is far, far greater than the number of confirmed cases, by orders of magnitude. Maybe it's 30x, 40x, 60x. Not sure, but rest assured it is going to a huge number. You mentioned math, multiplying your numerator in the equation by a factor of 30, 40, 50, etc. will drastically change the fatality rate. I don't see how you can argue against that. More serology studies are forthcoming very soon.

Edited April 18, 2020 by bleachkit

[bleachkit]

38 minutes ago, thecampster said:

I am always fascinated when people pick and choose things to make their arguments. Hard facts. 3.5 million tests in America, 706,000 confirmed cases. Over 1% of the country tested, 20% confirmed infection rate.  If the infection rate is, what you say it is here then the test is 80% inaccurate because 85x more widespread = 1/4 of the country.  Basic math man...basic math.

H1N1 infected 60,000,000 or so people in the US in 2009. 1 in every 5 people. These viral type illnesses are extremely contagious.I dont know how many Covid-19 has infected, but it aint 706,000. It's a number much, much, much greater than that. 

[thecampster]

2 hours ago, bleachkit said:

I'm not downplaying the deaths. I'm downplaying the fatality rate. That was the specific thing we were debating.

 

My friend, I don't know the exact number of asymptomatic cases versus confirmed cases. This is one study in California. But I used it to illustrate how the number of actual cases when you extrapolate serology data (that is how you the get the approximate real number) is far, far greater than the number of confirmed cases, by orders of magnitude. Maybe it's 30x, 40x, 60x. Not sure, but rest assured it is going to a huge number. You mentioned math, multiplying your numerator in the equation by a factor of 30, 40, 50, etc. will drastically change the fatality rate. I don't see how you can argue against that. More serology studies are forthcoming very soon.

Its very easy to argue. 700,000 tested positive.  If its 30x that's 21 million americans already infected. If 50x its 35 million. If its 85x its almost 60 million infected. There are only 320ish million people in America. If you're saying 30x, you're say 1 in 14 Americans are already infected. If that's the case you can could expect as many as 5 million symptomatic cases (that's 1/2 of the population infected instead of 1 in 14) more Americans infected if we just let folks run loose and pass this on (like with the flu). If 700k killed 33,000 then 5 million more will kill 200,000 more. The only reason we would be as low as 1 in 14 with your projections study/guess work study is because we isolated. If we open things up and tell people its okay, this thing will spread again quicker than a jack rabbit encountering a rattlesnake.  

 

It is absolute crazy talk to say 1 in 30 infected people show symptoms and then only 1 in 17 (6%) would die.  There is no reason for people to show immunity to this if its new. There is no herd immunitiy yet. That isn't how new virus infections work. That's not how any of this works. If its a potentially fatal disease for a population group, 99% of the population isn't immune naturally without having built an immunity. That isn't how immunity or symptoms work. Think about what you're saying. You're saying not that dangerous 30x as many people infected as tested an only 33,000 deaths so far.  But 30x of 700,000 is still only 1/14th of the population exposed and you're saying role the dice on the other 13/14ths.

 

[AHF]

16 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I'm still skeptical of China's reporting.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-52321529

 

For good reason.  Massive under reporting.  I think everyone has known that from very early on when China was eliminating whistleblowers, though.

[bleachkit]

1 hour ago, thecampster said:

Its very easy to argue. 700,000 tested positive.  If its 30x that's 21 million americans already infected. If 50x its 35 million. If its 85x its almost 60 million infected. There are only 320ish million people in America. If you're saying 30x, you're say 1 in 14 Americans are already infected. If that's the case you can could expect as many as 5 million symptomatic cases (that's 1/2 of the population infected instead of 1 in 14) more Americans infected if we just let folks run loose and pass this on (like with the flu). If 700k killed 33,000 then 5 million more will kill 200,000 more. The only reason we would be as low as 1 in 14 with your projections study/guess work study is because we isolated. If we open things up and tell people its okay, this thing will spread again quicker than a jack rabbit encountering a rattlesnake.  

 

It is absolute crazy talk to say 1 in 30 infected people show symptoms and then only 1 in 17 (6%) would die.  There is no reason for people to show immunity to this if its new. There is no herd immunitiy yet. That isn't how new virus infections work. That's not how any of this works. If its a potentially fatal disease for a population group, 99% of the population isn't immune naturally without having built an immunity. That isn't how immunity or symptoms work. Think about what you're saying. You're saying not that dangerous 30x as many people infected as tested an only 33,000 deaths so far.  But 30x of 700,000 is still only 1/14th of the population exposed and you're saying role the dice on the other 13/14ths.

 

So in summation, you stand by your U.S. Covid-19 fatality rate of 5%?

[thecampster]

I'm saying neither I nor you know anything for sure. It is all speculation. We can only go on the very little we know. What we know for sure is this thing spread in 6 weeks in the US to at a minimum 700,000 people and killed 33,000. That's it. It killed 33,000 people in 6 weeks. Quit trying to spin your remarks. It is serious and campaigning to open things before we're ready is a death sentence....period.

Of those confirmed infected and confirmed dead, right at 5%.  Lots of people get the flu but aren't counted either. The flu killed 80k in a year in one of the worst years on record. This killed 33,000 in 6 weeks despite tons of steps to stop it. I really don't get how you don't realize that.

The flu gets vaccines for a small percentage of Americans yearly but we go to work, eat at the same restaurants, shake hands, hug and it kills about 40k per year. We stopped coming within 6 feet of each other and started locking ourselves in our houses.....greatly limiting the possible infections...and it still killed 33,000 in 6 weeks. Quit trying to take risks with other peoples' loved ones.

 

Edited April 18, 2020 by thecampster

[bleachkit]

5 hours ago, thecampster said:

I'm saying neither I nor you know anything for sure. It is all speculation. We can only go on the very little we know. What we know for sure is this thing spread in 6 weeks in the US to at a minimum 700,000 people and killed 33,000. That's it. It killed 33,000 people in 6 weeks. Quit trying to spin your remarks. It is serious and campaigning to open things before we're ready is a death sentence....period.

Of those confirmed infected and confirmed dead, right at 5%.  Lots of people get the flu but aren't counted either. The flu killed 80k in a year in one of the worst years on record. This killed 33,000 in 6 weeks despite tons of steps to stop it. I really don't get how you don't realize that.

The flu gets vaccines for a small percentage of Americans yearly but we go to work, eat at the same restaurants, shake hands, hug and it kills about 40k per year. We stopped coming within 6 feet of each other and started locking ourselves in our houses.....greatly limiting the possible infections...and it still killed 33,000 in 6 weeks. Quit trying to take risks with other peoples' loved ones.

 

@thecampsterYour conservative libertarian friends at the Wall Street Journal agree with me.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-data-suggest-the-coronavirus-isnt-as-deadly-as-we-thought-11587155298

@macdaddy @AHFAlso an article from the highly respected science journal Nature.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01095-0

Edited April 19, 2020 by bleachkit

[thecampster]

I'm sorry but you can't quote an article on SARS to make a point on COVID-19....they're different.

 

Why can't you just address 33,000 dead in 6 weeks? Why can't you just address 23000 dead in Italy...a country 1/5th the size of the US? You need models and guess-timates. 

Dude think about this. 23,000 dead in Italy in a month and they started shuttering the country when they figured out what was going on. Come on man. Get out of the conspiracy bubble for a second. There are at least 160,000 dead worldwide in 3+ months despite the most aggressive steps and best medicine in history. I'm not opening up the world in a rush and risking another 160,000 because someone wants to keep both of his yachts.

If I'm wrong, there is a recoverable financial mess. If you're wrong, a few hundred thousand people die. 

[bleachkit]

9 minutes ago, thecampster said:

I'm sorry but you can't quote an article on SARS to make a point on COVID-19....they're different.

 

Why can't you just address 33,000 dead in 6 weeks? Why can't you just address 23000 dead in Italy...a country 1/5th the size of the US? You need models and guess-timates. 

Dude think about this. 23,000 dead in Italy in a month and they started shuttering the country when they figured out what was going on. Come on man. Get out of the conspiracy bubble for a second. There are at least 160,000 dead worldwide in 3+ months despite the most aggressive steps and best medicine in history. I'm not opening up the world in a rush and risking another 160,000 because someone wants to keep both of his yachts.

If I'm wrong, there is a recoverable financial mess. If you're wrong, a few hundred thousand people die. 

What are you talking about? Both articles are dated yesterday. They are specifically citing recent Covid-19 antibody data. Articles from the Wall Street Journal and Nature are the conspiracy bubble? Nature is considered the premier science journal in the world. You keep quoting how are many are dead. THAT'S NOT WHAT WE ARE DEBATING. We are debating the fatality rate. That means the percentage of those infected with Covid-19 that ended up dying from it.

Edited April 19, 2020 by bleachkit

[bleachkit]

24 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

Get out of the conspiracy bubble for a second

Linking an article with the latest data from the top science Journal is hardly promoting a conspiracy, it's using rock solid evidence and credibility to burnish my point. An example of a conspiracy would be claiming the NBA has instructed their referees to go easy on Luka Doncic in order to protect a budding white superstar. Now that is a conspiracy.