Coronavirus!

[bleachkit]

@macdaddy @AHF @thecampster

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/coronavirus-antibody-testing-shows-la-county-outbreak-is-up-to-55-times-bigger-than-reported-cases.html

Is anyone still going to say I'm wrong?

[marco102]

My job basically told us to stay home.  If anyone showed up to the office without permission, they may be forced to lay all of us off. 

Businesses don't want the risk of being sued for neglegience.  That's a real risk if you force your workers back to work and they get sick, get disabled, or die from this.

Even though Kemp opened the businessest up. I'm keeping my ass right at the house. I refuse to be the first test dummy running out like i'm free.  GA has under tested and under reported.  I also won't be the first to get this vaccine that's being rushed to maket.

 

Edited April 21, 2020 by marco102

[macdaddy]

it also does no good to open and staff a restaurant or bowling alley only for no one to come.

[AHF]

12 hours ago, bleachkit said:

@macdaddy @AHF @thecampster

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/coronavirus-antibody-testing-shows-la-county-outbreak-is-up-to-55-times-bigger-than-reported-cases.html

Is anyone still going to say I'm wrong?

More testing and analysis is a good thing.  So are prudent measures to combat this pandemic.  I know you've been supportive of protective measures, bleach, but most who fixate on the death rate like you are doing (speculating as to how low it will go) are doing so to minimize the significance of this.

Nearly 2000 dead again yesterday.  Whatever the infection and death rate, we are talking a higher death rate than 9/11 happening every other day even with all the actions currently being taken.  I've never disagreed with you that using the % of confirmed test results will result in significant exaggeration of fatality rate because the under reporting of deaths is much lower than the under reporting of total cases but when we have ~42.5k dead over roughly 2 months that is the statistic that is most meaningful to me.

[bleachkit]

2 minutes ago, AHF said:

More testing and analysis is a good thing.  So are prudent measures to combat this pandemic.  I know you've been supportive of protective measures, bleach, but most who fixate on the death rate like you are doing (speculating as to how low it will go) are doing so to minimize the significance of this.

Nearly 2000 dead again yesterday.  Whatever the infection and death rate, we are talking a higher death rate than 9/11 happening every other day even with all the actions currently being taken.  I've never disagreed with you that using the % of confirmed test results will result in significant exaggeration of fatality rate because the under reporting of deaths is much lower than the under reporting of total cases but when we have ~42.5k dead over roughly 2 months that is the statistic that is most meaningful to me.

I think it's going to come as a surprise to many to find out 5 to 10% of the population had Covid-19. Probably some of us on this board had it, hopefully we'll all take an antibody test soon. 

[macdaddy]

4 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

I think it's going to come as a surprise to many to find out 5 to 10% of the population had Covid-19. Probably some of us on this board had it, hopefully we'll all take an antibody test soon. 

Until they figure out if that results in any immunity it doesn't matter that much.   Since in GA the general public can't even get a c19 test at all, i can't imagine that we'll be getting antibody tests this year on a widespread basis.   I hope i'm wrong.

[AHF]

1 minute ago, bleachkit said:

I think it's going to come as a surprise to many to find out 5 to 10% of the population had Covid-19. Probably some of us on this board had it, hopefully we'll all take an antibody test soon. 

I'll buy into the numbers more when we get widespread testing than with any regional test.  This is very good data but LA county is a pretty different environment than many parts of the country.  It is going to be tough to take any particular study that is focused on a limited geography and extrapolate that to the entire country.  City environments in particular are where you would expect the highest penetration rates and LA is the second most populous city in the country.  But the sheer size of this study is better than others I've seen which is definitely helpful.

[bleachkit]

4 minutes ago, AHF said:

I'll buy into the numbers more when we get widespread testing than with any regional test.  This is very good data but LA county is a pretty different environment than many parts of the country.  It is going to be tough to take any particular study that is focused on a limited geography and extrapolate that to the entire country.  City environments in particular are where you would expect the highest penetration rates and LA is the second most populous city in the country.  But the sheer size of this study is better than others I've seen which is definitely helpful.

California locked down early. One of the earliest in the country. Atlanta will probably be higher than Los Angeles honestly.

[AHF]

1 minute ago, bleachkit said:

California locked down early. One of the earliest in the country. Atlanta will probably be higher than Los Angeles honestly.

It may be.  We won't know until widespread testing is actually being done.  We don't have the luxury of countries that ramped up testing early and started data bases and tracking among significant portions of their population.

[bleachkit]

18 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

Until they figure out if that results in any immunity it doesn't matter that much.   Since in GA the general public can't even get a c19 test at all, i can't imagine that we'll be getting antibody tests this year on a widespread basis.   I hope i'm wrong.

Immunity that is conferred is probably partial for most, but maybe none for some. It's a complicated multi factorial question, with quite a bit of variation. Not to beat a dead horse, but as I correctly predicted, antibody testing is going to dramatically reduce Covid-19's true fatality rate by increasing the numerator in the equation 50x or so. 

Edited April 21, 2020 by bleachkit

[macdaddy]

11 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

as I correctly predicted, antibody testing is going to dramatically

Dude just stop trying to pat yourself on the back.   This sentence doesn't make any sense.   You can't correctly predict something that hasn't happened yet.  

[Lurker]

11 hours ago, marco102 said:

My job basically told us to stay home.  If anyone showed up to the office without permission, they may be forced to lay all of us off. 

Businesses don't want the risk of being sued for neglegience.  That's a real risk if you force your workers back to work and they get sick, get disabled, or die from this.

Even though Kemp opened the businessest up. I'm keeping my ass right at the house. I refuse to be the first test dummy running out like i'm free.  GA has under tested and under reported.  I also won't be the first to get this vaccine that's being rushed to maket.

 

In the case of my area some places are having to reopen on the date they can because they failed to get unemployment or small business loans. Places that can will stay closed if they want, and I bet a lot of Atlanta places do but in my area, there seems to be 9-10 examples that have no choice in the matter but to open and implement strict guidelines.

[bleachkit]

7 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

Dude just stop trying to pat yourself on the back.   This sentence doesn't make any sense.   You can't correctly predict something that hasn't happened yet.  

We have had an ongoing debate about this. Nearly everyone has told me I'm wrong. The chances of these California studies being anomalous is very slim. Sort of like early returns on election night, it often portends the final result. But ok, let's wait for additional studies. Several more are coming soon.

Edited April 21, 2020 by bleachkit

[kg01]

27 minutes ago, Lurker said:

In the case of my area some places are having to reopen on the date they can because they failed to get unemployment or small business loans. Places that can will stay closed if they want, and I bet a lot of Atlanta places do but in my area, there seems to be 9-10 examples that have no choice in the matter but to open and implement strict guidelines.

It seems like a lot of small businesses got screwed in the loan process so what you're saying doesn't surprise me.  Sad.  The lack of guidance in administering the program combined with poor handling by a lot of bankers really hurt a lot of smaller folks.

[AHF]

5 minutes ago, kg01 said:

It seems like a lot of small businesses got screwed in the loan process so what you're saying doesn't surprise me.  Sad.  The lack of guidance in administering the program combined with poor handling by a lot of bankers really hurt a lot of smaller folks.

Definitely all that resistance to a process with oversight already bearing rotten fruit.  Hope when they roll out the next set that the abuses that have been publicized get addressed.

[bleachkit]

1 minute ago, AHF said:

Definitely all that resistance to a process with oversight already bearing rotten fruit.  Hope when they roll out the next set that the abuses that have been publicized get addressed.

Trillions of dollars (stimulus, small business, payment protection, etc) being quickly dolled out with limited oversight, this is so ripe for massive fraud and corruption. 

[Spud2nique]

45 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

Dude just stop trying to pat yourself on the back.   This sentence doesn't make any sense.   You can't correctly predict something that hasn't happened yet.  

He should start worrying about his avatar. NBA doesn’t roll around in May and we can turn him into a monkey !  

#staysafe

[kg01]

13 minutes ago, AHF said:

Definitely all that resistance to a process with oversight already bearing rotten fruit.  Hope when they roll out the next set that the abuses that have been publicized get addressed.

Seems, in the case of the ones returning the money, they're realizing the oversight is on the back end.  Meaning there's a lot of "forgiveness" loans that will not be forgiven due to lack of documentation of how it was spent.

8 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

Trillions of dollars (stimulus, small business, payment protection, etc) being quickly dolled out with limited oversight, this is so ripe for massive fraud and corruption. 

Basically.  Plus a lot of folks who received it legitimately will actually have to pay it back.  They're not forgiving all these loans.  Gotta read the fine print some of which hasn't even been written yet.  I'm not even kidding.  This whole thing smells on all levels, m'friend.

[bleachkit]

12 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

He should start worrying about his avatar. NBA doesn’t roll around in May and we can turn him into a monkey !  

#staysafe

I never lose bets Spud, you should know that.

[kg01]

11 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

I never lose bets Spud, you should know that.

Yikes.  Cocky much?

You're the Swaggy P of hawksquawk.