Coronavirus!

[TheNorthCydeRises]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

One potential scenario also discussed has the NBA entering a play-in tournament prior to the playoffs for the seventh seed and a few teams below, according to sources. But this is all fluid and these are all simply contingency plans, as Silver is well aware that the timetable will be determined by the virus.

– via Shams Charania @ The Athletic

 

 

OK. . do a play-in tournament for teams 7 - 10 in both conferences.  ( 7 vs 10 ) . . ( 8 v 9 ) . . . winners of those games play each other for that 7th seed.  Loser gets the 8th seed.

NOTE:  This would all be a ploy to try to get Zion in the playoffs . . . don't get it twisted on that.

 

EAST

[7] Brooklyn . . . [8] Orlando . . . [9] Washington . . . [10] Charlotte

[14] Atlanta . . . who is 4 games behind Charlotte, and probably would have no chance at catching them unless they somehow played 10 - 15 more games in the regular season

 

WEST

[7] Dallas . . . [8] Memphis . . . [9] Portland . . . [10] New Orleans

Dallas is a lock to make the playoffs right now, but would draw a very dangerous and improving New Orleans in a 7 vs 10 matchup.  I'm sure Cuban would "love" that.

 

I still would like to see them do a Draft Lottery tournament among the non-playoff teams, to see who got the #1 seed.  I'd be more for that, than to see a 7 - 10 playoff tournament

 

[JayBirdHawk]

On 4/6/2020 at 5:21 PM, JayBirdHawk said:

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson was moved to an intensive care unit Monday after his condition with coronavirus symptoms "worsened," his office has said.

Johnson, 55, was first admitted to St Thomas' Hospital in London on Sunday evening for what he said were "routine tests," adding that he was in "good spirits."

But the apparent change in the leader's health has shocked the nation, with politicians from his party and the opposition voicing their support for the leader as the country battles a widespread coronavirus outbreak.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-52178501

 

Update:

Boris Johnson is continuing to make "very good progress" in hospital, where he is being treated for coronavirus, according to Downing Street.

The prime minister, 55, was taken to hospital on Sunday - 10 days after testing positive for the virus.

He had three nights in intensive care before returning to a ward on Thursday.

No 10 said he was receiving daily updates and pregnancy scans from his fiancee, Carrie Symonds, and had been passing the time with films and sudoku.

On Friday, No 10 said Mr Johnson had been able to take short walks in between periods of rest at St Thomas' Hospital in London, where he is being treated.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52255465

[bleachkit]

By May, the damn will break. It's already breaking. The doomsday models were well off the mark. The hysteria and panic is waning. Fever is setting in, cabin fever that is. The NBA will be able to resume it's season. If I'm wrong about that, I give the board full licence to a change my avatar until Jan 1st 2021. 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

35 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

By May, the damn will break. It's already breaking. The doomsday models were well off the mark. The hysteria and panic is waning. Fever is setting in, cabin fever that is. The NBA will be able to resume it's season. If I'm wrong about that, I give the board full licence to a change my avatar until Jan 1st 2021. 

The dam will break because our leader will punch a hole in the dam.

And the models are not off until the numbers start trending down.  The models actually said that we'd reach the peak of 2,200 deaths per day by April 17th. We're already around 2,000 on April 10th.  The difference, is that the new models suggest that we're at the peak right now, and things will start to trend down.

The new models say that deaths in New York state are going to be down to 12 by April 30th.  Today 783 died in New York state today.

I hope this new modeling is correct.

Edited April 12, 2020 by TheNorthCydeRises

[bleachkit]

3 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

The dam will break because our leader will punch a hole in the dam.

And the models are not off until the numbers start trending down.  The models actually said that we'd reach the peak of 2,200 deaths per day by April 17th. We're already around 2,000 on April 10th.  The difference, is that the new models suggest that we're at the peak right now, and things will start to trend down.

The new models say that deaths in New York state are going to be down to 12 by April 30th.  Today 783 died in New York state today.

I hope this new modeling is correct.

I am referring to models used previously that alarmed the public, those prophesying millions of deaths. Of course updated models using the latest data will be close to accurate. It's a lot easier to bet on the winner when it gets closer to the end of the game.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

21 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

I am referring to models used previously that alarmed the public, those prophesying millions of deaths. Of course updated models using the latest data will be close to accurate. It's a lot easier to bet on the winner when it gets closer to the end of the game.

I'm referring to the same.   I posed those models on here right before the President and his crew talked to the nation about those models.

Those models that showed millions of deaths, is if we went about our business as usual, with no lockdowns or restrictions of crowds.   The 100,000 - 200,000 number was pushed out on that same day, if everyone stayed away from each other as much as possible, to flatten the curve.

Now those same models are saying 60,000 deaths, with the deaths projected to have peaked 2 days ago.   A lot of that hinges on what happens in New York, New Jersey, and Michigan the next few weeks.  If their numbers go down dramatically, that will help the overall death number.

Those other states enacting stay at home and safer at home measures to keep people off the streets and out of restaurants/bars, has helped too.   With the amount of younger adults who are getting COVID-19, this really could've been a mess had they kept the entertainment venues, bars, and nightclubs open.  The shutdowns helped.  We need to keep them in place until we can get the number of new cases below 100 nationwide, and be able to isolate those with COVID-19.

[bleachkit]

9 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

I'm referring to the same.   I posed those models on here right before the President and his crew talked to the nation about those models.

Those models that showed millions of deaths, is if we went about our business as usual, with no lockdowns or restrictions of crowds.   The 100,000 - 200,000 number was pushed out on that same day, if everyone stayed away from each other as much as possible, to flatten the curve.

Now those same models are saying 60,000 deaths, with the deaths projected to have peaked 2 days ago.   A lot of that hinges on what happens in New York, New Jersey, and Michigan the next few weeks.  If their numbers go down dramatically, that will help the overall death number.

Those other states enacting stay at home and safer at home measures to keep people off the streets and out of restaurants/bars, has helped too.   With the amount of younger adults who are getting COVID-19, this really could've been a mess had they kept the entertainment venues, bars, and nightclubs open.  The shutdowns helped.  We need to keep them in place until we can get the number of new cases below 100 nationwide, and be able to isolate those with COVID-19.

I think the millions of deaths number is completely, utterly wrong. Data from nations that have not employed much social distancing will reveal that to be true. Would there be more deaths without social distancing and shelter and stay? Yes, but not in the order of millions, not even close. Antibody tests will finally give an accurate numerator for Covid-19, which compared to number of deaths will reveal the true fatality rate, and it's going to be a fairly low number, probably around 0.2%. The millions of deaths projection was flat out wrong. That would be like predicting the Hawks are going to win 75 games. Theoretically possible, but extremely unlikely. 

[marco102]

3 hours ago, bleachkit said:

I think the millions of deaths number is completely, utterly wrong. Data from nations that have not employed much social distancing will reveal that to be true. Would there be more deaths without social distancing and shelter and stay? Yes, but not in the order of millions, not even close. Antibody tests will finally give an accurate numerator for Covid-19, which compared to number of deaths will reveal the true fatality rate, and it's going to be a fairly low number, probably around 0.2%. The millions of deaths projection was flat out wrong. That would be like predicting the Hawks are going to win 75 games. Theoretically possible, but extremely unlikely. 

We use a lot of statical reports in my line of work.  The models are based on data that you have at time. Millions of people could have very well died if no one social distanced and hospitals were all over run. 

WTF is there to be upset about. It was an intial model.  There were plenty out there and it made people pay attention and keep their asses  at home.

Also, no one wants to be the firm out there under reporting deaths. Let's say they said 10 ppl would die from Corona virus and then 20,000 die.  Everyone would be coming for that firm.  The data analyst genreally err on the worst case reasonable scenario. 

 

Edited April 12, 2020 by marco102

[bleachkit]

3 hours ago, marco102 said:

We use a lot of statical reports in my line of work.  The models are based on data that you have at time. Millions of people could have very well died if no one social distanced and hospitals were all over run. 

WTF is there to be upset about. It was an intial model.  There were plenty out there and it made people pay attention and keep their asses  at home.

Also, no one wants to be the firm out there under reporting deaths. Let's say they said 10 ppl would die from Corona virus and then 20,000 die.  Everyone would be coming for that firm.  The data analyst genreally err on the worst case reasonable scenario. 

 

Yea, no one wants to be the one that underestimated a coming pandemic, so they err to the worst case scenario, thus skewing the model. That's called confirmation bias. 

Edited April 12, 2020 by bleachkit

[lethalweapon3]

LP continuing to do his part.

~lw3

[AHF]

9 hours ago, bleachkit said:

Yea, no one wants to be the one that underestimated a coming pandemic, so they err to the worst case scenario, thus skewing the model. That's called confirmation bias. 

You are talking about selecting assumptions for a model.  If they were unduly aggressive, that is bad modeling.  But I’m not crying if that happened.  Too many people (including policy making officials) were being recklessly careless and putting people’s lives at risk.

We will see too many Americans lost as it is.

[thecampster]

Following Fauci's comments today. Here are a few stories you can expect to start being referenced.

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/mar/27/donald-trump/fact-checking-whether-biden-called-trump-xenophobi/

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-expels-three-wall-street-journal-reporters-11582100355

https://www.nbcboston.com/news/health/china-covid-19-virus-cases-fall-again-deaths/2075671/

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-media/china-expels-american-journalists-as-spat-with-u-s-escalates-idUSKBN2143AN

 

2 things going to start getting drudged up here. 1) The Republicans are going to claim that Democrats were against travel bans and called Republicans racist for taking steps to protect Americans which slowed the response and 2) there should be a ramp up of laying the blame on China for delaying world response by downplaying their numbers.

 

Around the 2nd week of February China was forced to show an increase in their numbers based on the work of the first journalists.  Feb 2 showed about 16,500 cases. Cases continued to rise steadily daily with news linking out of China the numbers were far under reported. By the 9th, China was showing 40,000 cases...an increase of 250% in 7 days but with foreign journalists saying it was far worse. It was at this time China started cracking down on Chinese local journalists and making plans to expel foreigners. 1 week later, the 16th...70,000 cases. But magically a 30,000 case jump in 1 week turned into only 14,000 more cases going forward and the steady expulsion of journalists, death of Chinese civilian journalists and doctors blowing the lid off the story.  Both sides of our government are responsible here for slow action. They are about to start blaming the Chinese instead of each other as blame is not controlling the media cycle.

Beginning that 1st week of February when the travel ban was introduced, Trump was trounced in the media. (one example: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/04/opinion/trump-travel-ban-nigeria.html), 

Next week is going to be extreme for the blame game and very touchy geopolitically as Fauci's comments today backs Trump into a corner he was already mostly in.  He's going to have to come out fighting and there will be blame deflection going on in all directions.

[bleachkit]

15 minutes ago, AHF said:

You are talking about selecting assumptions for a model.  If they were unduly aggressive, that is bad modeling.  But I’m not crying if that happened.  Too many people (including policy making officials) were being recklessly careless and putting people’s lives at risk.

We will see too many Americans lost as it is.

For the record, I am supportive of the measures taken so as not to overwhelm the health care system. That being said, some of the dire predictions and sky high fatality rates will be shown to be erroneous.

[AHF]

4 hours ago, bleachkit said:

For the record, I am supportive of the measures taken so as not to overwhelm the health care system. That being said, some of the dire predictions and sky high fatality rates will be shown to be erroneous.

Everyone speaking to current mortality rates is not speaking to what the final rate will be.  Mortality rates are always inflated (even when the absolute number is understated) because you never test the full population.

[JayBirdHawk]

 

Quote

Taiwan's coronavirus response is among the best globally

Hong Kong(CNN)On January 25, as the world was still waking up to the potential danger of the novel coronavirus spreading rapidly out of central China, two governments recorded four new infections within their territory.

Australia and Taiwan have similar sized populations of about 24 million people, both are islands, allowing strict controls over who crosses their borders, and both have strong trade and transport links with mainland China. Ten weeks on from that date, however, Australia has almost 5,000 confirmed cases, while Taiwan has less than 400.

The question is not what Australia did wrong -- 20 countries have more cases than Australia, and seven have more than 10 times as many -- but how Taiwan has kept the virus under control when other parts of the world have not.

Hard learned lessons:

During the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak of 2003, Taiwan was among the worst-hit territories, along with Hong Kong and southern China. More than 150,000 people were quarantined on the island -- 180 kilometers (110 miles) off China's southeastern coast -- and 181 people died.

Taiwan has a world-class health care system, with universal coverage. As news of the coronavirus began to emerge from Wuhan in the run up to the Lunar New Year, officials at Taiwan's National Health Command Center (NHCC) -- set up in the wake of SARS -- moved quickly to respond to the potential threat, according to a recent report in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA).

 

Among those early decisive measures was the decision to ban travel from many parts of China, stop cruise ships docking at the island's ports, and introduce strict punishments for anyone found breaching home quarantine orders.

In addition, Taiwanese officials also moved to ramp up domestic face-mask production to ensure the local supply, rolled out islandwide testing for coronavirus -- including retesting people who had previously unexplained pneumonia -- and announced new punishments for spreading disinformation about the virus.

"Taiwan's government learned from its 2003 SARS experience and established a public health response mechanism for enabling rapid actions for the next crisis. Well-trained and experienced teams of officials were quick to recognize the crisis and activated emergency management structures to address the emerging outbreak."

In particular, Taiwan's rapid and transparent response -- with medical officials holding daily briefings on the matter -- has been held up as an example of how democracies can still rein in epidemics, even as some were claiming only an autocratic government like China's could effectively control such a rapidly spreading virus. Taiwan also avoided the type of strict lockdowns that characterized the response in China and many other countries.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/04/04/asia/taiwan-coronavirus-response-who-intl-hnk/index.html

[macdaddy]

I guess i shouldn't be surprised that there are a bunch of idiotic conspiracy theories.   When someone says 'think for youself' in order to understand a global pandemic caused by a virus then you know we are in trouble.  This is why we have scientist and doctors.  If we all could just figure out and understand everything in the world by searching the internet then we wouldn't need experts.  I hope all these folks stay at home a cure themselves with a homemade ventilator when they get sick.  

I'm still waiting for some proof of these stupid theories and some motive for every leader in the world to wreck their own economies and kill a bunch of people by engineering a virus. 

[JayBirdHawk]

On 4/11/2020 at 6:19 PM, JayBirdHawk said:

Update:

Boris Johnson is continuing to make "very good progress" in hospital, where he is being treated for coronavirus, according to Downing Street.

The prime minister, 55, was taken to hospital on Sunday - 10 days after testing positive for the virus.

He had three nights in intensive care before returning to a ward on Thursday.

No 10 said he was receiving daily updates and pregnancy scans from his fiancee, Carrie Symonds, and had been passing the time with films and sudoku.

On Friday, No 10 said Mr Johnson had been able to take short walks in between periods of rest at St Thomas' Hospital in London, where he is being treated.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52255465

PM thanks NHS staff for coronavirus recovery

Boris Johnson singles out individual names while praising the "astonishing" care he received in hospital.

 

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/embed/p089bx5l/52264247

 

[lethalweapon3]

 

~lw3

[lethalweapon3]

^apparently Karl-Anthony's father was stricken with The Rona, too, but thankfully recovered.

~lw3

[kg01]

That's just awful.  Prayers to that family.