Coronavirus!

[TheNorthCydeRises]

6 hours ago, bleachkit said:

Your 10,000 Dow prediction is not aging to well.

 

I hope it never gets close to that point.  Interesting that you bring that up though, seeing that my 10,000 prediction was for May 1st, not April 9th. 

The markets being up are good for corporate America and stockholders.  But with almost 7 million more people filing for unemployment, the average person is simply worried about when they'll get their next check, or if they can find another job.

FYI:  The world will top 100,000 dead from this by tomorrow, with the US approaching 18,000 deaths by final reporting on Friday.  That's 6,000+ more deaths in America than what the Swine Flu did in it's 18 month run.  The US deaths by day are not in decline, they're still rising.  Same goes for the rest of the world.

 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

On 4/8/2020 at 1:38 PM, MaceCase said:

Update: my results just got phoned in.  Proved what we already knew but man it's not a good look that labs require 5-7days and yet are still maintaining regular business days during a crisis.

 

America has to do better.  This has exposed us big time.

[AHF]

53 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

America has to do better.  This has exposed us big time.

Until we get a cohesive strategy and stop moving one direction one day and another direction the next day, we will remain chaotic.  Sometimes it is one person in a position of authority saying "black" and another saying "white."  Sometimes it is the same person going one direction and then reversing course.  We need all oars pulling in the same direction.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

9 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

@TheNorthCydeRises. Were you able to finalize your unemployment claim.

 

I was able to file it, but the state still hasn't approved it.   The state said that they had to reassign 200 personnel just to deal with the unemployment benefit issues, because they are completely overwhelmed.  They put  yesterday out that there will be delays in payment and claim approvals.

The good news is that my boss told me to come back to work on Monday.  So we'll see how long that will last, and if my role at work will have a different focus.

[hawkman]

2 hours ago, AHF said:

Until we get a cohesive strategy and stop moving one direction one day and another direction the next day, we will remain chaotic.  Sometimes it is one person in a position of authority saying "black" and another saying "white."  Sometimes it is the same person going one direction and then reversing course.  We need all oars pulling in the same direction.

The biggest lesson out of all of this is we are pretty much on our own. The response to Katrina, Flint, and now this is all I need to see. I'm not going full "prepper", but I'll definitely be better prepared for whatever comes next. 

[turnermx]

6 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

America has to do better.  This has exposed us big time.

Please have a look at this and perhaps KB can weigh in.  CDC is saying that COVID19 can be listed as COD on death certificate without so much as a test for COVID-19.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf

 

[AHF]

19 minutes ago, turnermx said:

Please have a look at this and perhaps KB can weigh in.  CDC is saying that COVID19 can be listed as COD on death certificate without so much as a test for COVID-19.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf

 

They will never make up for the numbers we miss due to lack of testing.

[Thomas]

13 hours ago, hawkman said:

I'm not going full "prepper", but I'll definitely be better prepared for whatever comes next. 

Might want to make an investment in these guys while you are at it. Kidding (somewhat) aside we are in the middle of another very big history lesson. Still am stunned by it.

[kg01]

17 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

America has to do better.  This has exposed us big time.

Basically.  'Merica's COVID handlin ...

.. also, glad it sounds like you'll be back working.  Our Firm just sent out an update saying "All's well .... but you see other firms are laying off ... but not us .... blah, blah, blah ..."

First time they mentioned it, so I'm in Suspicious Chloe mode now ...

Like, why are y'all mentioning that all of a sudden?  Feels like the coach getting the vote of confidence from the GM knowing full well he's gonna get fired.

[turnermx]

10 hours ago, AHF said:

They will never make up for the numbers we miss due to lack of testing.

There is a problem with the test itself, as well, 4 of 5 false positives come from it.  All variants of influenza, and the bodies own exosomes produced by inflammation caused by stress, anxiety, etc, can be mistook for COVID-19.

[AHF]

1 hour ago, kg01 said:

Basically.  'Merica's COVID handlin ...

.. also, glad it sounds like you'll be back working.  Our Firm just sent out an update saying "All's well .... but you see other firms are laying off ... but not us .... blah, blah, blah ..."

First time they mentioned it, so I'm in Suspicious Chloe mode now ...

Like, why are y'all mentioning that all of a sudden?  Feels like the coach getting the vote of confidence from the GM knowing full well he's gonna get fired.

That is fair.  Companies are having to make hard choices right now.  Lots of pay cuts, layoffs, etc.  If your company has the balance sheet to be able to avoid that, this is a good thing.  Even being able to put it off longer than most companies is good.  Very industry dependent for sure so you are probably the best person to think about it and trust your gut.

[kg01]

8 minutes ago, AHF said:

That is fair.  Companies are having to make hard choices right now.  Lots of pay cuts, layoffs, etc.  If your company has the balance sheet to be able to avoid that, this is a good thing.  Even being able to put it off longer than most companies is good.  Very industry dependent for sure so you are probably the best person to think about it and trust your gut.

Fortunately our industry is considered "essential" and most companies don't want to put off the work 'til later.  That said, if enough clients do want to put it off, it'll effect us.  I'm crossin' muh fingers 'n toes, brolio.

[thecampster]

19 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

I hope it never gets close to that point.  Interesting that you bring that up though, seeing that my 10,000 prediction was for May 1st, not April 9th. 

The markets being up are good for corporate America and stockholders.  But with almost 7 million more people filing for unemployment, the average person is simply worried about when they'll get their next check, or if they can find another job.

FYI:  The world will top 100,000 dead from this by tomorrow, with the US approaching 18,000 deaths by final reporting on Friday.  That's 6,000+ more deaths in America than what the Swine Flu did in it's 18 month run.  The US deaths by day are not in decline, they're still rising.  Same goes for the rest of the world.

 

They just loosened restrictions on drawing from your 401k. When people figure that out, there will be another huge drop in the market. Not sure we're hitting 10k but it will drop again before bottoming out and coming back up in late June.

 

[thecampster]

19 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

America has to do better.  This has exposed us big time.

Excuse me while I remove my voice of reason hat and go full conspiracy for a sec.

 

America is no more exposed than everyone else, but what we are is honest.  The American economy is more self-reliant than most in the world and its based on our standing as a food and water exporter. It depends on whether you look at water based products or the full water footprint (as most products use or pollute water when produced), but solely looking at food and water as an export.

America exports 2x more food than the next closest country (Germany).

https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/the-american-food-giant-the-largest-exporter-of-food-in-the-world.html

 

Value in dollars food

Rank	Country	Value of Food Exports (US Dollars, Thousands)
1	United States	72,682,349.79
2	Germany	34,628,800.73
3	United Kingdom	29,540,218.71
4	China	25,152,286.27
5	France	24,114,557.76
6	Netherlands	23,271,570.93
7	Japan	21,870,881.77
8	Canada	21,803,448.88
9	Belgium	15,742,034.88
10	Italy	13,890,507.81

 

Value in dollars water and ice  

http://www.worldstopexports.com/ice-exporters/

Below are the 15 countries that exported the highest dollar value worth of water and ice during 2018.

1. China: US$649.1 million (55.8% of total water/ice exports)
2. United States: $101.7 million (8.7%)
3. France: $95 million (8.2%)
4. Turkey: $46 million (4%)
5. Norway: $35 million (3%)
6. Belgium: $29.6 million (2.5%)
7. Germany: $28.3 million (2.4%)
8. Iceland: $15.6 million (1.3%)
9. Canada: $14.9 million (1.3%)
10. Malaysia: $14 million (1.2%)
11. United Kingdom: $13.2 million (1.1%)
12. Italy: $11.3 million (1%)
13. New Zealand: $11 million (0.9%)
14. Russia: $9.6 million (0.8%)
15. Netherlands: $9.4 million (0.8%)

 

Rarely do people take into account how stable the US economy is based on this part of our trade alone. In the US, we import food and water based on taste and variety, not on need. We have excess here. Most countries do not. Even though China exports water and ice, it is mostly in commercial production of products that require water (like making toilet paper).  If the world shut down, the US is perfectly capable of supplying their food needs.

Additionally, much of the United states is farmable but unused. During WW2, victory gardens accounted for a large increase in personal food use in the US and can easily be reinstituted. In many parts of the world (see the far east and ancient near east), the people are either too tightly packed or the land they live on is poor for food farming.

Foreign nations rely heavily on trade to import food and feed their people. For this reason, many nations are vastly under reporting their Covid numbers. Some scientists estimate that China, as an example, have reported only 1/10th of the COVID impact. Reporting the real numbers would cripple the economies of these nations and they would not recover. For the US, a pandemic does not mean people die of starvation, but in places like Singapore, that's exactly what it means. So the countries lie and deflate the impact to keep trade flowing.

The world is lying. The two most honest countries so far (the US and Italy) look terribly under-prepared based on the official numbers. However, as time goes by the real numbers will eventually come out once this dies down due to weather and herd immunity. Current projections show approximately 1.62 million infections world wide. When you consider mild or no symptom infections and the under-reporting of communist, totalitarian and dependent nations, the number is probably closer to 10 million.

When you look at the US infection rate of 1 in 700 confirmed and closer to 1 in 200 probably and then extrapolate that to the world, it would be reasonable to assume 1 in 200 in the world have been infected. With a world population of 8 billion, that's 40 million infected. I think my 10 million number is a very conservative estimate.

Okay back to rational thought and not accusing the world of being a lying sack of feces. But realize the US isn't handling it badly or was woeful unprepared as much as the US is fairly honest in our reporting and therefore open to real scrutiny.

 

 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

13 hours ago, turnermx said:

Please have a look at this and perhaps KB can weigh in.  CDC is saying that COVID19 can be listed as COD on death certificate without so much as a test for COVID-19.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf

 

 

It also says that the person has to have COVID-19 related symptoms for that to be a possible cause of death, if not tested.

In the last example they gave on Page 6, an elderly woman had a stroke 3 years earlier.  She became sick with all of the main symptoms of COVID-19 after she was exposed to an individual who had tested positive for COVID-19.

The reason why the individual wasn't tested was because she refused to go to the hospital.

 

So what caused her death?  The stroke that she had 3 years earlier ( that she was living through ), or COVID-19, which ended up killing her in 5 days?

[JayBirdHawk]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

That is fair.  Companies are having to make hard choices right now.  Lots of pay cuts, layoffs, etc.  If your company has the balance sheet to be able to avoid that, this is a good thing.  Even being able to put it off longer than most companies is good.  Very industry dependent for sure so you are probably the best person to think about it and trust your gut.

 

2 hours ago, kg01 said:

First time they mentioned it, so I'm in Suspicious Chloe mode now ...

Like, why are y'all mentioning that all of a sudden?  Feels like the coach getting the vote of confidence from the GM knowing full well he's gonna get fired.

My company applied for the small business loan from the Stimulus so we aren't currently laying off. Some clients put projects on hold, but others are keeping going especially those currently under construction.

My husband's company laid off some and he had to take a pay cut. His job applied for unemployment for the paycut (didn't know you could do that). He already got his 1st unemployed portion.

 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

5 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

My company applied for the small business loan from the Stimulus so we aren't currently laying off. Some clients put projects on hold, but others are keeping going especially those currently under construction.

My husband's company laid off some and he had to take a pay cut. His job applied for unemployment for the paycut (didn't know you could do that). He already got his 1st unemployed portion.

 

Honestly, I'd rather take a 15% - 20% reduction in pay during this time, instead of having to go through the hassle of filing for unemployment.  My job is supposedly covering the difference between unemployment and what I take home per week.  In Tennessee, Unemployment only pays out $275 per week ( one of the lowest rates in the country ).  My employer is supposed to cover the rest of the difference.

Knowing Tennessee, I may not get my first check until the end of April.

[JayBirdHawk]

1 minute ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

Honestly, I'd rather take a 15% - 20% reduction in pay during this time, instead of having to go through the hassle of filing for unemployment.  My job is supposedly covering the difference between unemployment and what I take home per week.  In Tennessee, Unemployment only pays out $275 per week ( one of the lowest rates in the country ).  My employer is supposed to cover the rest of the difference.

Knowing Tennessee, I may not get my first check until the end of April.

Agreed. You also get to keep your insurance coverage with a pay cut.

[JayBirdHawk]

 

If these two can't work it out - who would/should the Jazz trade?

 

[macdaddy]

6 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

If these two can't work it out - who would you trade?

 

For Gobert?  Why do we need him when we have Capela?