The math of why LP had to go, game by game.

[thecampster]

32 games left in the season for the Hawks and looking up at the standings this morning, the Hawks are 1.5 games out of the 4th playoff slot and 7.5 games back from the best record in the East.

 

If we can assume LP is responsible for 3 losses, the Hawks would solidly be in the 4th slot for the East. If LP was responsible for 5 of the first 20 losses, and 2 of those losses were to Brooklyn (Dec 30 145-141) and Milwaukee (Jan 24, down 17 at the end of 1, lost by 14). The Hawks would be in position to control their own fate within 2 games of the top spot in the East.  2 games.

 

Dec 30 Brooklyn - Leading at the end of 3, the Hawks give up 43 points in the 4th quarter. Hawks down 1, Capela is subbed out at 5:31 left. Hawks lose by 4. Brooklyn scores 20 points in the last 5:23 to win.

Jan 2 Cleveland - Leading by 4 at the end of 3, the Hawks score only 17 points in the 4th quarter. Cleveland becomes the first team to try trapping in the backcourt and force 3 turnovers. Trae gets the treatment from the refs but LP doesn't take a tech to protect his guys. Hawks lose by 5.

Jan 4 Knicks - Leading by 4 at the end of 3, the Hawks score 20 points in the 4th quarter.  The pattern of only 1 of Collins and Capela on the floor in the 4th continues. Hawks lose by 5. 2nd straight game of Trae seeing traps in the backcourt in the 4th, has 3 turnovers in the quarter.

Jan 6 Charlotte.  Hawks lose 1st quarter 27-11. Not ready to compete. Hawks lose by 8.

Jan 9 Charlotte. 2:30 left in the 3rd, Hawks down 3.  Early in the shot clock, Brandon Goodwin misses a 3, Trae Young offensive rebound...wait what...Young and Goodwin on the floor together. But we have 3 young wings. Surely 2 of them can be on the floor at all times.....Young passes to Solomon Hill who shoots and misses a 3. Hawks go on to lose by 8.

Jan 16 Portland. Game tied at the end of 3. Hawks score 20 points in the 4th quarter. Lose by 6 (not going into detail...this one made me ill).

Jan 27 Brooklyn - Game tied end of 3. Game tied at the end of 4. With 3:23 left in the 4th quarter, Hawks up 3, Collins enters the game for Capela (continuing the trend of them not playing together in the 4th). Capela does not play in OT. Brooklyn scores 24 points in the last 3 minutes + 5 minutes OT. Hawks lose by 4.

Feb 1 Lakers - Hawks leading by 1 after 3. Give up 32 points in the 4th quarter, lose by 8.

Feb 3 Dallas - Hawks leading by 3 at the half. Give up 69 points in the second half. Lose by 6.

Feb 10 Dallas - Hawks leading by 9 after 3. Give up 37 points in the 4th. Lose by 1.

Feb 23 Cleveland - Hawks up 1. Capela leaves the game with 19.5 seconds left. Cleveland gets a driving dunk with 4 seconds left. Hawks lose by 1.

 

Pick any 5 games. Can you attribute the loss to LP? There are more but these really stand out to me. 

[REHawksFan]

17 minutes ago, thecampster said:

32 games left in the season for the Hawks and looking up at the standings this morning, the Hawks are 1.5 games out of the 4th playoff slot and 7.5 games back from the best record in the East.

 

If we can assume LP is responsible for 3 losses, the Hawks would solidly be in the 4th slot for the East. If LP was responsible for 5 of the first 20 losses, and 2 of those losses were to Brooklyn (Dec 30 145-141) and Milwaukee (Jan 24, down 17 at the end of 1, lost by 14). The Hawks would be in position to control their own fate within 2 games of the top spot in the East.  2 games.

 

Dec 30 Brooklyn - Leading at the end of 3, the Hawks give up 43 points in the 4th quarter. Hawks down 1, Capela is subbed out at 5:31 left. Hawks lose by 4. Brooklyn scores 20 points in the last 5:23 to win.

Jan 2 Cleveland - Leading by 4 at the end of 3, the Hawks score only 17 points in the 4th quarter. Cleveland becomes the first team to try trapping in the backcourt and force 3 turnovers. Trae gets the treatment from the refs but LP doesn't take a tech to protect his guys. Hawks lose by 5.

Jan 4 Knicks - Leading by 4 at the end of 3, the Hawks score 20 points in the 4th quarter.  The pattern of only 1 of Collins and Capela on the floor in the 4th continues. Hawks lose by 5. 2nd straight game of Trae seeing traps in the backcourt in the 4th, has 3 turnovers in the quarter.

Jan 6 Charlotte.  Hawks lose 1st quarter 27-11. Not ready to compete. Hawks lose by 8.

Jan 9 Charlotte. 2:30 left in the 3rd, Hawks down 3.  Early in the shot clock, Brandon Goodwin misses a 3, Trae Young offensive rebound...wait what...Young and Goodwin on the floor together. But we have 3 young wings. Surely 2 of them can be on the floor at all times.....Young passes to Solomon Hill who shoots and misses a 3. Hawks go on to lose by 8.

Jan 16 Portland. Game tied at the end of 3. Hawks score 20 points in the 4th quarter. Lose by 6 (not going into detail...this one made me ill).

Jan 27 Brooklyn - Game tied end of 3. Game tied at the end of 4. With 3:23 left in the 4th quarter, Hawks up 3, Collins enters the game for Capela (continuing the trend of them not playing together in the 4th). Capela does not play in OT. Brooklyn scores 24 points in the last 3 minutes + 5 minutes OT. Hawks lose by 4.

Feb 1 Lakers - Hawks leading by 1 after 3. Give up 32 points in the 4th quarter, lose by 8.

Feb 3 Dallas - Hawks leading by 3 at the half. Give up 69 points in the second half. Lose by 6.

Feb 10 Dallas - Hawks leading by 9 after 3. Give up 37 points in the 4th. Lose by 1.

Feb 23 Cleveland - Hawks up 1. Capela leaves the game with 19.5 seconds left. Cleveland gets a driving dunk with 4 seconds left. Hawks lose by 1.

 

Pick any 5 games. Can you attribute the loss to LP? There are more but these really stand out to me. 

Absolutely you can pick out five. My running tally was 6 games - Bkyn, Clev, NYK, Bkyn, Dal, Clev. And you bring up onces I didn't even put on LP entirely but the argument could certainly be made.  The sheer fact they have gone from 30th in the 4th quarter to 1st in the 4th quarter is confirmation enough that LP needed to go.  

 

[AUhawksfan]

Capella and subbing him out is the real head scratcher for me, and it happening multiple times. I’d really like to hear LP’s reasoning but it’d probably just be something about wanting to bring in more shooters to keep it competitive, completely negating any sort of defensive importance. 

[hawkzlova123]

Simply put, nate is on a revenge tour. We have beaten every team we lost to, what does that say? I see us continuing the revenge tour against okc, heck might as well beat up on the lakers too

[NBASupes]

There is a lot more. There were games we were up only for the other team to go on a 15 point run and LP only calls a timeout when we are a down by 5. Nate would have called at least 2 timeouts in that span if it happen. He understands to stop runs a lot better. LP struggled a lot at that.

[thecampster]

I apologize if this thread makes anyone physically ill. It was no picnic to write either.

[AHF]

3 minutes ago, thecampster said:

I apologize if this thread makes anyone physically ill. It was no picnic to write either.

I don't think a coaching change would make a difference in all these games (some games if we made a different choice that alternative would have crashed and burned worse) but you've done a great job laying out some really negative patterns and some bad habits that hurt the team's chances to win important games this season.  Good read.

[RedDawg#8]

This is why I'm not sold that we need to make any moves at the deadline.

What if; Travis Schlenk actually put together a complete team in the offseason? We are finally seeing what all these additions can do with proper coaching. And the best is still yet to come with more key guys on the way back.

Clearly the potential was always there for us to succeed. Once (if) we ever get back to full strength this roster has  everything that you need to compete (outside of 3 HoF's in their prime).

Star player

Dynamic Point Guard Play

Shooting at every position 

A Shooting Specialist

Defenders at every position 

Defensive Specialists

Wings with size and length

Wings that can handle the ball

Stretch Bigs

Low post bigs

Dominant rim protection 

Rebounding galore

Vet Leadership

Youthful energy

Vet Coaching

Ability to close out games 

Clutch play/executioN

and my favorite:

A chip on our shoulder.

This is such a well balanced team, I see no reason to shake it up now just to get a head start on saving a buck or two in the offseason.

Edited March 18, 2021 by RedDawg#8

[Peoriabird]

Excellent job @thecampster
!

[Atlantaholic]

2 hours ago, AUhawksfan said:

Capella and subbing him out is the real head scratcher for me, and it happening multiple times. I’d really like to hear LP’s reasoning but it’d probably just be something about wanting to bring in more shooters to keep it competitive, completely negating any sort of defensive importance. 

He did explain it. Said it was because Capella wasn't a good free throw shooter. NEXT.

[Atlantaholic]

Never called timeouts at the right time, 2 pg lineups, Solomon Hill getting bulk minutes at PF with Okonguw and Nathan Knight available, subbing Capella out in the 4th quarter of every close game which led us to have the second worst record in close games, clashing with players = Worst coaching job I've seen since Lon Kruger.

[AHF]

12 minutes ago, Atlantaholic said:

He did explain it. Said it was because Capella wasn't a good free throw shooter. NEXT.

It is the reason but still the wrong call, imo.

[Atlantaholic]

8 minutes ago, AHF said:

It is the reason but still the wrong call, imo.

Absolutely the wrong call. I mean NEXT as in next man up. Terrible excuse to take out a player that never even gets to the line anyway, not to mention when said player is easily overall the most impactful player on the entire team. 

Edited March 18, 2021 by Atlantaholic

[AHF]

2 minutes ago, Atlantaholic said:

Absolutely the wrong call. I mean NEXT as in next man up. Terrible excuse to take out a player that never even gets to the line anyway, not to mention when said player is easily overall the most impactful player on the entire team. 

The concern is a hack-a-shaq scenario.  Teams have not been shy about doing that before.  But that is not a risk when  you are the team trying to make the comeback in a close game.  The opposition isn't going to foul you, stop the clock and then give you a the equivalent of a 53% chance to score with no time running.  

It is when the other team is trying to make the comeback that they would be happy to stop the clock, foul Clint and hope he misses.  But a lot of these situations weren't ones where the other team was trying to make a comeback.  And even then you'd ideally want to mix it up with Clint on the floor for defense and then swapped out on offense and in a lot of these games Clint came off the floor and didn't come back on.

[JayBirdHawk]

5 minutes ago, AHF said:

The concern is a hack-a-shaq scenario.  Teams have not been shy about doing that before.  But that is not a risk when  you are the team trying to make the comeback in a close game.  The opposition isn't going to foul you, stop the clock and then give you a the equivalent of a 53% chance to score with no time running.  

It is when the other team is trying to make the comeback that they would be happy to stop the clock, foul Clint and hope he misses.  But a lot of these situations weren't ones where the other team was trying to make a comeback.  And even then you'd ideally want to mix it up with Clint on the floor for defense and then swapped out on offense and in a lot of these games Clint came off the floor and didn't come back on.

Nate did this recently (I think vs the Raptors or Magic).  He pulled Clint when the  other team employed the Hack-a-Pela early in the 4th. What Nate did do was put Clint back in once we got under the 2 minute mark since the off ball fouls under 2 minutes gives us freethrows and the ball back. Then he went offense/defense switching  with Gallo/Capela to finish the game.

[AHF]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Nate did this recently (I think vs the Raptors or Magic).  He pulled Clint when the  other team employed the Hack-a-Pela early in the 4th. What Nate did do was put Clint back in once we got under the 2 minute mark since the off ball fouls under 2 minutes gives us freethrows and the ball back. Then he went offense/defense switching  with Gallo/Capela to finish the game.

The right way to do this.  Capela makes such a big difference for our D.

[warcore]

@thecampster .... thanks for taking all the time...

So is this like, a house that you built for @Peoriabird to live in? A bird house?

[Peoriabird]

14 minutes ago, warcore said:

@thecampster .... thanks for taking all the time...

So is this like, a house that you built for @Peoriabird to live in? A bird house?

And I'm inviting everybody over to the House party!

[warcore]

1 hour ago, Peoriabird said:

And I'm inviting everybody over to the House party!

Yo as long as you're not bitching about LP all night I'm down! 

[Vol4ever]

LP was just a terrible coach.