Best possible offseason for all ready to make moves teams in the NBA

[JayBirdHawk]

5 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Before the draft though is usually a delayed deal. A deal in principal.  The deal is typically finalized post moratorium.  Which is why draftees end up wearing the wrong hats. Any deals involving players typically are finalized post moratorium (which typically means player arrives a day or two late for summer league). Summer league pushed back this year so no issue.

If it involves drafted players/picks, yes.

IIRC, deals can happen for teams to get under the LT before the year ends or is that not the case.

[thecampster]

Just now, JayBirdHawk said:

If it involves drafted players/picks, yes.

IIRC, deals can happen for teams to get under the LT before the year ends or is that not the case.

Okay let me reclarify what I'm saying.

 

There is a universe where Selena Gomez walks up to me and says "hey big boy, you wanna?" But this is not that universe and so I'm not sure I see the benefit of discussing it.

I'm sure there's a universe where we offer something that makes another team take Gallo before June 29th just so they can be the one's to waive him and eat the $5 million hit next year. I'm pretty sure this isn't that universe.

[JayBirdHawk]

1 minute ago, thecampster said:

Okay let me reclarify what I'm saying.

 

There is a universe where Selena Gomez walks up to me and says "hey big boy, you wanna?" But this is not that universe and so I'm not sure I see the benefit of discussing it.

I'm sure there's a universe where we offer something that makes another team take Gallo before June 29th just so they can be the one's to waive him and eat the $5 million hit next year. I'm pretty sure this isn't that universe.

To Supes point, I think he's asking if that's with in the CBA rules? Not if it will happen.

[RandomFan]

All of this Ben Simmons slander is reminding me of how much I would like to have him on the Hawks, and what my dream scenario offseason would look like. Gimme Ben Simmons who will be 26 years old next season and gimme Deandre Ayton at 24 to pair with Trae at 24 for many years to come. Yaya, it's a pipe dream that probably couldn't happen, but we're talking dream scenarios and this is just for laughs.

Let's start by acknowledging we need to be building for at least an 8 man playoff rotation. Of course 9 is better and helps cover for injuries and if we can get that great, but we're shooting for a minimum of 8, with enough roster fillers to make it through the nicks and bruises of an 82 game regular season. 

Let's get the Gobert thing out of the way: Gobert is a bum, and overpaid at that, no thanks. He's a black hole on offense and can be taken advantage of on defense by most playoff worthy offenses.

Simmons definitely has warts, but let's not let that overshadow the things that he does that actually do make him a star in this league...still. He would be a great pairing with Trae, in PnR actions, a top 5 defender in the league capable of defending 1-4 (no, I don't like him at 5, unless it's against extreme small ball), can play 1-5 on offense, and can play backup PG when Trae rests. Obviously his one glaring shortcoming is shooting the ball and confidence, but we'd be trading that for all the rest that he brings to the table.

I almost forgot to add his ability to initiate the offense would allow Trae to grow into more of an off-ball threat. Let's be clear, Trae is not good at that right now, but with the roster's he's had, exactly how much opportunity has he had to play that way? Not much. People acting like Trae can't learn to be a great off-ball player are setting themselves up for disappointment. Are you going to bet against this kid being able to do anything he puts his mind to on offense? I'm not. People talk about he's no Steph Curry as an off-ball player, but neither was Steph when he came into the league; it's something he had to learn and get better at. Trae can too, IF it's something he's asked to do and IF we have the personnel to deem it worthy. 

Trae would also be a great pairing with Ayton since he has actually added a decent 3 point shot to his arsenal, and at 4 years into his career is still young and improving across the board. As a competent 2-way center Ayton is infinitely more valuable than a Gobert or even a Capela; he's likely worth the max contract he's looking for if he's in a heliocentric offense playing with Trae due to how good he is becoming on D and how reliant Trae is on a quality big that can set good screens, PnR, and throw down lobs.   

All 3 of those guys can share the court and thrive together, which isn't always the case with 3 star players, so they can open and close games together. But almost importantly is primarily Simmons' skillset would allow them to thrive in slightly different roles when one of them rests (we'd obviously want to keep 2 of the 3 on the court at all times).  

How do we make that happen and what kind of roster would we be left with? Good question, and I'm not sure on that. Outside of Trae I suppose everyone is trade bait, but there are several players I'd try my hardest to keep around if possible. 

Playoff rotation of 8+ players:

1. Trae
2. Ben Simmons
3. Ayton
4. Jalen Johnson
5. Okongwu
6. one of Huerter or Bogi (keep both if possible, but probably not)
7. Delon Wright - re-signed as backup SG, PG, wing defender.  
8. ??? 

Round out the regular season roster: 

Sharife

Solo Hill 

Skylar Mays

Lou Williams (if not traded)

TLC

 

TRADE BAIT:

Gallo

Capela

Collins

Hunter

Lou Williams (mainly for salary matching, and for us to dump his salary, nobody else is going to want him)

one of Huerter or Bogi (prefer to keep K'von. Yes, Bogi is better right now, but he's older, more expensive, and could be developing chronic knee problems. K'von is a safer future long-term investment.)

one of Jalen or Okongwu (as last resort, really prefer to keep both. If forced to chose I'd rather keep OO17). 

Draft picks

 

That gives us the option to do two packages of something like:

#1 - Capela + Bogi + 1st + 2nd + Lou FOR Ben or Ayton

#2 - Collins + Gallo + Hunter + 1st + 2nd for Ben or Ayton

Or any combination of the above players + future draft picks, I was just throwing out an example. Jalen or Okongwu could be used for sweeteners if necessary, but we really need to hold on to both in this scenario if at all possible. Assuming we are able to hold onto Huerter, Jalen, and Okongwu that leaves us only one hole in an 8 man playoff rotation. 

Assuming the starters are going to play at least 35 minutes per game in a playoff rotation is a safe bet, probably more but let's use 35 as a nice easy number for now. 

That has us filling the 96 minutes per game between the 4 and 5 with a bigs rotation of Ayton starting at 5 for 35 mpg, OO17 at 4 for 22 mpg and sliding over to 5 for the 13 mpg when Ayton rests, allowing JJ to backup 4 for up to 26 mpg. Ayton and OO handling all of the duties at 5; OO and JJ handling the majority at 4, with Simmons able to log some minutes there if needed as well. 

A PG rotation of Trae for however many minutes he plays, and then Simmons for all of the backup PG minutes. This year that was 35 mpg during the regular season, probably more during a playoff run. But at 35 mpg that would leave 13 mpg left over for Ben. I'm assuming that Sharife is only a regular season player under this scenario, but if he balls out next year and forces his way into the playoff rotation then those 13 minutes would go to him and it would probably turn into a 9 man rotation instead of just 8. I doubt we could play Sharife and Trae together in a playoff game defensively, which means Sharife only gets the minutes Trae is on the bench.  

That leaves us with 96 minutes left to account for between the 2 and 3. Assuming Simmons plays 13 mpg at the 1, that leaves him with 22 of those 96, reducing it to 74. Huerter takes 35 at the 2 or 3, leaving 39. Delon Wright gets the majority of those with a mystery 8th guy taking the rest. That could be someone like TLC, Lou Will, even Sharife; but most likely it would be one of those aging vets that signs on for peanuts chasing a ring like we've all seen over recent seasons. 

If you put a top heavy roster like this together with 3 star players, then some of these aging former top players are going to take notice and one of them is likely to take a chance on a ring for a vet minimum contract. But like I said at the start, it's probably all a pipe dream and I haven't even looked at if/how the salaries would work. 

Edited April 24, 2022 by RandomFan

[Diesel]

IF he were healthy....  Would you want Gordon Hayward??

He fits a lot of what we talk about in a wang...

Season	Age	Tm	Lg	Pos	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	2P	2PA	2P%	eFG%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
2019-20	29	BOS	NBA	SF	52	52	33.5	6.7	13.5	.500	1.6	4.3	.383	5.1	9.2	.554	.561	2.4	2.8	.855	1.1	5.6	6.7	4.1	0.7	0.4	1.8	1.8	17.5
2020-21	30	CHO	NBA	SF	44	44	34.0	7.1	15.0	.473	1.9	4.7	.415	5.1	10.3	.499	.537	3.5	4.2	.843	0.8	5.0	5.9	4.1	1.2	0.3	2.1	1.7	19.6
2021-22	31	CHO	NBA	SF	49	48	31.9	5.8	12.6	.459	1.8	4.5	.391	4.0	8.1	.496	.528	2.6	3.0	.846	0.8	3.8	4.6	3.6	1.0

[JayBirdHawk]

3 minutes ago, Diesel said:

IF he were healthy....  Would you want Gordon Hayward??

He fits a lot of what we talk about in a wang...

Season	Age	Tm	Lg	Pos	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	2P	2PA	2P%	eFG%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
2019-20	29	BOS	NBA	SF	52	52	33.5	6.7	13.5	.500	1.6	4.3	.383	5.1	9.2	.554	.561	2.4	2.8	.855	1.1	5.6	6.7	4.1	0.7	0.4	1.8	1.8	17.5
2020-21	30	CHO	NBA	SF	44	44	34.0	7.1	15.0	.473	1.9	4.7	.415	5.1	10.3	.499	.537	3.5	4.2	.843	0.8	5.0	5.9	4.1	1.2	0.3	2.1	1.7	19.6
2021-22	31	CHO	NBA	SF	49	48	31.9	5.8	12.6	.459	1.8	4.5	.391	4.0	8.1	.496	.528	26	3.0	.846	0.8	3.8	4.6	3.6	1.0

No. He's 32, always injured (49 games) and making $30+ million over the next 2 years.

[Diesel]

3 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

No. He's 32, always injured (49 games) and making $30+ million over the next 2 years.

PJ Tucker is 37.

And the money is part of it.  If he's healthy, next year, teams will want him for the cap...What are they willing to trade?

 

[JayBirdHawk]

13 minutes ago, Diesel said:

PJ Tucker is 37.

And the money is part of it.  If he's healthy, next year, teams will want him for the cap...What are they willing to trade?

 

Tucker played in 71 games and making $7 mil.

[JTB]

@JeffS17 and @NBASupes

from what I can tell you two seem to be the biggest Gobert fans on the Squawk in terms of him coming to ATL as a trade possibility …so I have to ask….

1. If Gobert is on this same team but as a replacement for Capela or if that doesn’t make sense put Gobert on this same exact team in Capelas spot at center ….do the heat still have success with this pressure box 1 trapping defense they are doing ?

 

2. Does Gobert make Collins better in terms of impact on the floor? 

[thecampster]

@JayBirdHawk, @NBASupes   I believe the below answers the question.  I understood the question but wanted to make sure 1) There was no gotcha moment in my answer for people to come back later and say "but what about leap year during a full moon" and 2) I wanted to find a clear moment similar to what you're asking. Those usually happen pre moratorium for cap reasons (as Supes is saying) and for players other teams really want who the current team doesn't want going into the next season.  In that scenario, the Hawks would be in rebuild, recap mode and the other team is looking for a player to build around (like what the Lakers are getting ready to do).

 

From: https://cbabreakdown.com/trades

TIMING AND PROCEDURES

Teams can make trades between the start of the regular season up to the NBA’s trade deadline — 3pm (eastern) on the seventeenth Thursday of the season. (The trade deadline for the 2018-19 season was February 7, 2019.) For teams that do not make the playoffs, they can start making trades again on the day after their last regular season game. Playoff teams can start making trades once they’re eliminated from the playoffs. However, no trades can take place during the moratorium period.

To finalize a trade, teams have to participate in a trade call with the league where they confirm the trade’s details. Teams must disclose all relevant information they have about a player during this call. (And this is why the New York Knicks disclosed the sexual assault allegations surrounding Kristaps Porzingis to the Dallas Mavericks during their trade call; if they had not disclosed this information, the league could have rescinded the trade, fined the Knicks up to $1 million, taken away future draft picks, or a combination of these punishments.)

(Note, the league’s By-Laws prevent a team from trading or selling its first round draft picks if the result of that trade leaves the team without a first round pick in any two consecutive future drafts.)

[macdaddy]

I would think the Miami series would end any speculation that just replacing Capela with Gobert would make us much better.   We need a scorer.  

[JayBirdHawk]

6 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

I would think the Miami series would end any speculation that just replacing Capela with Gobert would make us much better.   We need a scorer.  

[NBASupes]

10 hours ago, JTB said:

@JeffS17 and @NBASupes

from what I can tell you two seem to be the biggest Gobert fans on the Squawk in terms of him coming to ATL as a trade possibility …so I have to ask….

1. If Gobert is on this same team but as a replacement for Capela or if that doesn’t make sense put Gobert on this same exact team in Capelas spot at center ….do the heat still have success with this pressure box 1 trapping defense they are doing ?

 

2. Does Gobert make Collins better in terms of impact on the floor? 

He raises our floor to the point where we wouldn't have to see Miami in the 1st round for starters as he can single handedly get us 45 wins. Add Trae and we are looking at 60 wins or more. 

He clearly helps us a lot on defense but Miami playoff scheme would be difficult on him as well. We need more than just Gobert. We need a 4 who can create for himself and for others if we really want to be contenders.

He would make JC life a lot easier on defense and offense. That said, he's not a perfect fit. Just a better fit than Clint play wise. 

Edited April 26, 2022 by NBASupes

[thecampster]

1 hour ago, macdaddy said:

I would think the Miami series would end any speculation that just replacing Capela with Gobert would make us much better.   We need a scorer.  

I think the Gobert change isn't made in a bubble.  I think its wrapped around a few things (listed below). All salaries are based off 2022-23 assuming all trades would happen post moretorium.

Capela - $19.7 million cap figure

Collins - $23.5 million cap figure

Gallo - $21.45 million cap figure ($5 million if waived).

Bogi - $18 million cap figure.

#16 pick - $3.5 million

Total - $86.15 million.

Think of this like Tetris with Gallo being the straight 4 block piece.  It doesn't matter how they all fit as long as they end up adding up to something close to $86.1 million and 5 players.

Also in this mix is Hunter who is due a new contract but makes $10 million.

IMHO - All 6 of these assets + Cooper could be on the move in the off-season. 

What remains for sure - Young, Huerter, JJ, OO (good value contract and tradable).

Also IMHO - Wright is resigned for about $7 million starting to back up Trae.

If you can send out all of those players, its very possible to bring back 2 high priced players to pair with Young on a better fit and a solid role guy to fill in at PF until JJ is ready to take over full time.

If it was my offseason, I could/would ship out all/part of the above for Gobert or Ayton (as available and tradeable), Portis ($10-12 million ish at most) and 1 star level player/scorer at the 2/3 who can create for themselves. I start Gobert, Portis, Huerter, Star-2, Young.

 

You have a ton of money to play with this offseason if you can sell on your moveable core. I expect big changes this offseason to get bigger, meaner around Trae.

[macdaddy]

1 hour ago, thecampster said:

You have a ton of money to play with this offseason if you can sell on your moveable core. I expect big changes this offseason to get bigger, meaner around Trae.

I agree with that.  I just look at who's in the finals every year and no one who ever makes it for the last decade has had a defensive center as one of their highest paid players.  In fact it's usually the opposite and the center position is manned by a journeyman of some kind.   So to me investing in Gobert would be a trend bucking move.   Maybe it would work but there aren't any recent examples of it working. 

[Sothron]

We've discussed this among the insider posters but I fully expect some big changes to the Hawks in the offseason. 

All players except for Trae are on the table with obviously much higher asking prices for some than others. 

My guess would be we see Trae, Kevin, OO and a whole bunch of new faces next season. Not saying every other Hawk is gone but those three are the most likely to return.

[thecampster]

1 minute ago, Sothron said:

We've discussed this among the insider posters but I fully expect some big changes to the Hawks in the offseason. 

All players except for Trae are on the table with obviously much higher asking prices for some than others. 

My guess would be we see Trae, Kevin, OO and a whole bunch of new faces next season. Not saying every other Hawk is gone but those three are the most likely to return.

I'd be more shocked if we didn't see it.

[JeffS17]

2 hours ago, macdaddy said:

I would think the Miami series would end any speculation that just replacing Capela with Gobert would make us much better.   We need a scorer.  

Of course we need more than just Gobert.  We need a roster that fits together.  I'm just saying that Trae+Gobert core is a pairing that could contend.  Our other players not playing up to their contracts is independent of that.  Trae+Gobert gets us nowhere if JC is out/hurt and we are still unwilling to play rookies/young guys meaningful minutes to see what they can do.  Gobert is not some cure-all solution, it's just a hypothetical pairing that I think could be contenders.

I don't think me or Supes or anyone else is saying Gobert is going to make McMillan a good coach, or that it's going to make JC healthy, etc.  We need to get Bogi out in this scenario for a good defending wing that has serviceable ball handling/creation.  

There is no 1 player that will fix our team's issues right now, Gobert or otherwise -- so I have no idea why everyone continues to pile on to hypothetical Gobert scenarios.  Coaching and health have more to do with our woes this season than any one player can fix.

[marco102]

1 hour ago, JeffS17 said:

Of course we need more than just Gobert.  We need a roster that fits together.  I'm just saying that Trae+Gobert core is a pairing that could contend.  Our other players not playing up to their contracts is independent of that.  Trae+Gobert gets us nowhere if JC is out/hurt and we are still unwilling to play rookies/young guys meaningful minutes to see what they can do.  Gobert is not some cure-all solution, it's just a hypothetical pairing that I think could be contenders.

I don't think me or Supes or anyone else is saying Gobert is going to make McMillan a good coach, or that it's going to make JC healthy, etc.  We need to get Bogi out in this scenario for a good defending wing that has serviceable ball handling/creation.  

There is no 1 player that will fix our team's issues right now, Gobert or otherwise -- so I have no idea why everyone continues to pile on to hypothetical Gobert scenarios.  Coaching and health have more to do with our woes this season than any one player can fix.

What I'm saying is, why would you prefer Gobert over Ayton?  Ayton is more of a two way player and would solve alot of the problems we are seeing in the Miami series. 

Also, younger and will be cheaper which offers more roster flexibility.

Edited April 26, 2022 by marco102

[macdaddy]

2 hours ago, JeffS17 said:

Of course we need more than just Gobert.  We need a roster that fits together.  I'm just saying that Trae+Gobert core is a pairing that could contend.  Our other players not playing up to their contracts is independent of that.  Trae+Gobert gets us nowhere if JC is out/hurt and we are still unwilling to play rookies/young guys meaningful minutes to see what they can do.  Gobert is not some cure-all solution, it's just a hypothetical pairing that I think could be contenders.

I don't think me or Supes or anyone else is saying Gobert is going to make McMillan a good coach, or that it's going to make JC healthy, etc.  We need to get Bogi out in this scenario for a good defending wing that has serviceable ball handling/creation.  

There is no 1 player that will fix our team's issues right now, Gobert or otherwise -- so I have no idea why everyone continues to pile on to hypothetical Gobert scenarios.  Coaching and health have more to do with our woes this season than any one player can fix.

I can tell you why.  It's because big questions keep going unanswered about the idea.  The biggest being:

Last 10-20 years of NBA ball says we need an elite scoring wing to contend.   Gobert's salary makes acquiring someone like that difficult.   Hell it makes acquiring a "defending wing that has serviceable ball handling/creation" difficult.   You're talking Bogi + defense.  Look at what we had to pay to get Bogi.

When was the last time a team with a defensive center as one of the highest paid players on the team been to the finals?