2024 Hawks Offseason Thread: Lottery Bound

[JayBirdHawk]

28 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

I championed the "Start OO over Clint" campaign this past season.  And it's clear Quin had other ideas and didn't feel the way I did.  Looking back on it, I was probably something less than right on that issue.  As of now, I'm not necessarily seeking to trade OO, but I'm certainly open to it if the deal arises. I just don't believe he's what Quin is looking for at the 5.    

Same. 

I kept saying we needed to see what we have in OO as a full time starter this season to make a more informed decision in the offseason, particularly with his extension kicking in. 

[KB21]

28 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

I championed the "Start OO over Clint" campaign this past season.  And it's clear Quin had other ideas and didn't feel the way I did.  Looking back on it, I was probably something less than right on that issue.  As of now, I'm not necessarily seeking to trade OO, but I'm certainly open to it if the deal arises. I just don't believe he's what Quin is looking for at the 5.    

I think it likely has more to do with OO needing to develop certain things that Quin wants him to do.  For instance, this is the first season that anyone has really tried to expand OO's offensive game and include the three-point shot as part of his repertoire.  There may also be the aspect that Quin may have a little too much respect and comfort in playing the older veteran even though the younger guy offers a lot more.  

[JeffS17]

OO has been adding range to his offensive game every year, he's switchable on defense, he has excellent defensive instincts, and he seems to want to be here -- why the hell would you guys want to trade him?  Everyone here constantly clamors for a stretch 5 and as soon as we have one that almost developed, we want to trade him?  Not to mention he's elite finishing around the rim, which should not be underrated for a center starting with Trae.  

 

All of the above does not even speak to the fact we have him on a ~$15M/year contract.  He will very likely be one of the best value centers in the league in the next 3 years.  Who would you guys rather have at center for $15M or less?  Holmes? Zubac? Wagner? Adams?  There is no one.  Also, OO didn't get to play in the physical defense second half of the season where he would have been thriving.  Selling on him now would be a huge blunder.

[NBASupes]

1 hour ago, JeffS17 said:

OO has been adding range to his offensive game every year, he's switchable on defense, he has excellent defensive instincts, and he seems to want to be here -- why the hell would you guys want to trade him?  Everyone here constantly clamors for a stretch 5 and as soon as we have one that almost developed, we want to trade him?  Not to mention he's elite finishing around the rim, which should not be underrated for a center starting with Trae.  

 

All of the above does not even speak to the fact we have him on a ~$15M/year contract.  He will very likely be one of the best value centers in the league in the next 3 years.  Who would you guys rather have at center for $15M or less?  Holmes? Zubac? Wagner? Adams?  There is no one.  Also, OO didn't get to play in the physical defense second half of the season where he would have been thriving.  Selling on him now would be a huge blunder.

OO was terrible this year and in last year's playoff against Boston.

Late on rotations on both ends. 

Constantly late on actions.

He couldn't handle the higher request from Quin as he was used to Nates style of just do what you do well. 

Struggles at guarding the perimeter and fouls too much and way too aggressive. 

He's great at all the things he's usually great at but he got exposed for what he's not. 

I found him to have regressed but his talent didn't so I just believe he's a poor fit with Quin. 

Edited April 24 by NBASupes

[KB21]

1 hour ago, JeffS17 said:

OO has been adding range to his offensive game every year, he's switchable on defense, he has excellent defensive instincts, and he seems to want to be here -- why the hell would you guys want to trade him?  Everyone here constantly clamors for a stretch 5 and as soon as we have one that almost developed, we want to trade him?  Not to mention he's elite finishing around the rim, which should not be underrated for a center starting with Trae.  

 

All of the above does not even speak to the fact we have him on a ~$15M/year contract.  He will very likely be one of the best value centers in the league in the next 3 years.  Who would you guys rather have at center for $15M or less?  Holmes? Zubac? Wagner? Adams?  There is no one.  Also, OO didn't get to play in the physical defense second half of the season where he would have been thriving.  Selling on him now would be a huge blunder.

It's because "He's not 7-foot so he can't be a center."

[kg01]

1 hour ago, JeffS17 said:

OO has been adding range to his offensive game every year, he's switchable on defense, he has excellent defensive instincts, and he seems to want to be here -- why the hell would you guys want to trade him?  Everyone here constantly clamors for a stretch 5 and as soon as we have one that almost developed, we want to trade him?  Not to mention he's elite finishing around the rim, which should not be underrated for a center starting with Trae.  

 

All of the above does not even speak to the fact we have him on a ~$15M/year contract.  He will very likely be one of the best value centers in the league in the next 3 years.  Who would you guys rather have at center for $15M or less?  Holmes? Zubac? Wagner? Adams?  There is no one.  Also, OO didn't get to play in the physical defense second half of the season where he would have been thriving.  Selling on him now would be a huge blunder.

We all see all this, which makes us wonder why he's been so bad as his role increased.  We don't "want" to trade him but it may have to happen.

And, on his switchability, if he doesn't know when to be where it doesn't matter how switchable he is. 

[kg01]

18 minutes ago, KB21 said:

It's because "He's not 7-foot so he can't be a center."

It's not that, imho.  Honestly it's akin to why I devalue draft picks.  We don't have time to wait for them to be consistently impactful and reliable.  Same with OO.  He's showed stretches of impactful play but a strong argument can be made that we're too many years in to keep waiting to see it every night. 

[AHF]

4 hours ago, KB21 said:

OO averaged 16.1 PPG and 8.5 RPG as a starter this year on a 66.3% FG and 45% 3P.  TS% was 72.3 on 15.2 USG.  

Why do you think Snyder refused to start OO over CC all season?  My prediction coming into the year is that he would make that transition.  The fact that he didn't makes me question whether he believes in OO as a starter.  

As for the averages, that is a small sample size problem.  OO started 8 games all year and no more than 5 in a row (if my memory serves).  Numbers especially like the 3pt shooting are meaningless when you are talking about a total of 7 3pt shots made over that stretch.  That is too small to care about shooting a good % even if you had a good reason to think that there was something magically different about him shooting 3's as a starter versus coming off the bench.  On a per minute basis, the only number that was significantly improved was his scoring as a starter (he was slightly worse in rebounding, turnovers and assists; slightly better in stocks; and significantly better in scoring but again SSS leads me to be against drawing any conclusions based on these numbers).

Stack OO's health risks on top and you had better have good depth behind him if you are going to make him a starter.  I wanted to see him start a big stretch of games this season so we could make an informed choice about him as a starter for next year.

[KB21]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

Why do you think Snyder refused to start OO over CC all season?  My prediction coming into the year is that he would make that transition.  The fact that he didn't makes me question whether he believes in OO as a starter.  

As for the averages, that is a small sample size problem.  OO started 8 games all year and no more than 5 in a row (if my memory serves).  Numbers especially like the 3pt shooting are meaningless when you are talking about a total of 7 3pt shots made over that stretch.  That is too small to care about shooting a good % even if you had a good reason to think that there was something magically different about him shooting 3's as a starter versus coming off the bench.  On a per minute basis, the only number that was significantly improved was his scoring as a starter (he was slightly worse in rebounding, turnovers and assists; slightly better in stocks; and significantly better in scoring but again SSS leads me to be against drawing any conclusions based on these numbers).

Stack OO's health risks on top and you had better have good depth behind him if you are going to make him a starter.  I wanted to see him start a big stretch of games this season so we could make an informed choice about him as a starter for next year.

The biggest reason is this.  I don't consider Quin Snyder to be a stupid coach.  If he's not starting OO, there is a good reason other than some dumb idea that OO isn't his type of player.  How could any coach not want an athletic, switchable big with high level perimeter defense and offense?  

OO was by far the most impactful big defender on the team this season, and this regression that supposedly happened under Quin is a myth.  

[AHF]

15 minutes ago, KB21 said:

The biggest reason is this.  I don't consider Quin Snyder to be a stupid coach.  If he's not starting OO, there is a good reason other than some dumb idea that OO isn't his type of player.  How could any coach not want an athletic, switchable big with high level perimeter defense and offense?  

OO was by far the most impactful big defender on the team this season, and this regression that supposedly happened under Quin is a myth.  

I don't know the reason but clearly Snyder thought starting CC was a better idea than starting OO.  Given how CC performed the last two seasons, I think that invites questions about how Snyder views OO (in my mind CC wasn't so good that a young breakout player couldn't seize the job).  Given that Snyder isn't a stupid coach per your assessment, I would assume he has some good reason for why he prefered CC to OO all season.

The regression is pretty plainly seen in the numbers.

2022-23 vs 2023-24

(all #s per 36 or rate based)

Points:  15.4 vs 14.4 = -1.0 point P36 = 6.5% regression

Rebounds: 11.2 vs 9.6 = -1.6 rebounds P36 = 14.3% regression

Steals:  1.1 vs 0.7 = -0.4 steals P36 = 36% regression

Blocks:  2.1 vs 1.5 = -0.6 blocks P36 = 28.6% regression

PER:  19.4 vs 16.9 = -2.5 = 12.9% regression

WS/48:  .185 vs .153 = -.032 = 17.3% regression

(I'm not including things like TS% where for all meaningful purposes there was no change with him at .678% in 2022-23 vs .674% in 2023-24).

Where he improved year over year is in assists, turnovers, and personal fouls.  The personal fouls piece is probably the best improvement for him as a potential starting center.

(I don't love DRTG as a comparison across teams or year to year but to the extent people like that metric it would be worth noting that OO posted a career worst 118 DRTG after 3 seasons of 109, 111, and 112 and that when compared to team DRTG this was by far his worst season with him being only ~1 point better than the team rating when in prior years he was closer to 4-5 points better).

 

[JeffS17]

Imo Quin starting CC has more to do how useless CC is with the bench unit.  He cannot do anything on offense without Trae spoon feeding him buckets, which he fumbles half the time anyways.  IMO CC is basically an extension of Trae on the floor so they have to share minutes, and OO not starting has way more to do than CC's flaws than his own ability.

[KB21]

9 minutes ago, AHF said:

I don't know the reason but clearly Snyder thought starting CC was a better idea than starting OO.  Given how CC performed the last two seasons, I think that invites questions about how Snyder views OO (in my mind CC wasn't so good that a young breakout player couldn't seize the job).  Given that Snyder isn't a stupid coach per your assessment, I would assume he has some good reason for why he prefered CC to OO all season.

The regression is pretty plainly seen in the numbers.

2022-23 vs 2023-24

(all #s per 36 or rate based)

Points:  15.4 vs 14.4 = -1.0 point P36 = 6.5% regression

Rebounds: 11.2 vs 9.6 = -1.6 rebounds P36 = 14.3% regression

Steals:  1.1 vs 0.7 = -0.4 steals P36 = 36% regression

Blocks:  2.1 vs 1.5 = -0.6 blocks P36 = 28.6% regression

PER:  19.4 vs 16.9 = -2.5 = 12.9% regression

WS/48:  .185 vs .153 = -.032 = 17.3% regression

(I'm not including things like TS% where for all meaningful purposes there was no change with him at .678% in 2022-23 vs .674% in 2023-24).

Where he improved year over year is in assists, turnovers, and personal fouls.  The personal fouls piece is probably the best improvement for him as a potential starting center.

(I don't love DRTG as a comparison across teams or year to year but to the extent people like that metric it would be worth noting that OO posted a career worst 118 DRTG after 3 seasons of 109, 111, and 112 and that when compared to team DRTG this was by far his worst season with him being only ~1 point better than the team rating when in prior years he was closer to 4-5 points better).

 

IMO, DRTG is too dependent upon who is around you when you are on the floor, and OO was out there a lot with both Trae and Dejounte at guard and Bey on the wing.  Quin in the past has been notoriously slow to trust young players with his complex offense and defense.  I don't think we should jump to conclusions and just assume Quin would rather have a drop big like Gobert just because that's what he had in Utah.  Quin was also a part of putting down the building blocks of the defense that the Hawks used to win 60 games which featured Al Horford as a blitzing center as opposed to a drop coverage big.  

[AHF]

7 minutes ago, KB21 said:

IMO, DRTG is too dependent upon who is around you when you are on the floor, and OO was out there a lot with both Trae and Dejounte at guard and Bey on the wing.  Quin in the past has been notoriously slow to trust young players with his complex offense and defense.  I don't think we should jump to conclusions and just assume Quin would rather have a drop big like Gobert just because that's what he had in Utah.  Quin was also a part of putting down the building blocks of the defense that the Hawks used to win 60 games which featured Al Horford as a blitzing center as opposed to a drop coverage big.  

I don't assume that Quin wants a big like Gobert but I was expecting OO to take the job this year and was really hoping he would get an extended run as a starter when CC was hurt.  Neither of those things happened.  I know about his injury but I don't know why Quin didn't trust him or what he plans for the future.  He might envision OO sliding in as a starter next year.  He might envision that OO will never be his starting center.  I just don't know and I'm not aware of Snyder having made that clear in any public forum.

[AHF]

12 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

Imo Quin starting CC has more to do how useless CC is with the bench unit.  He cannot do anything on offense without Trae spoon feeding him buckets, which he fumbles half the time anyways.  IMO CC is basically an extension of Trae on the floor so they have to share minutes, and OO not starting has way more to do than CC's flaws than his own ability.

I can see the logic behind that idea but for last year DJM is the guy that CC was really tied to. 

All 10 of CC's top lineups by minutes played include DJM.  Only 5 include Trae. 

[JeffS17]

2 minutes ago, AHF said:

I can see the logic behind that idea but for last year DJM is the guy that CC was really tied to. 

All 10 of CC's top lineups by minutes played include DJM.  Only 5 include Trae. 

Is this for all games or just games both DJ and Trae played?  Cus obviously DJ gonna be in more lineups as he played 2783 minutes to traes 1942....

[AHF]

1 minute ago, JeffS17 said:

Is this for all games or just games both DJ and Trae played?  Cus obviously DJ gonna be in more lineups as he played 2783 minutes to traes 1942....

All games.  Trae actually ranks 4th on the season when you look at 2 man combinations and to show you how little injuries matter for this the #2 combo is CC with Bey.

 

[JayBirdHawk]

Growth isn't always linear, especially with a new system. OO said during his exit interview "said when he came back from injured toe the first time, the defense was different - Quin had him hedging which was something he has never done"

[theheroatl]

Give OO starting minutes or trade him. 
 

I’ve seen enough of Capela. Should have traded him last offseason.

 

I really can’t wait until this roster is gutted. Complete lackluster defenders littered everywhere.

Edited April 24 by theheroatl

[BangHolman]

5 hours ago, JeffS17 said:

OO has been adding range to his offensive game every year, he's switchable on defense, he has excellent defensive instincts, and he seems to want to be here -- why the hell would you guys want to trade him?  Everyone here constantly clamors for a stretch 5 and as soon as we have one that almost developed, we want to trade him?  Not to mention he's elite finishing around the rim, which should not be underrated for a center starting with Trae.  

 

All of the above does not even speak to the fact we have him on a ~$15M/year contract.  He will very likely be one of the best value centers in the league in the next 3 years.  Who would you guys rather have at center for $15M or less?  Holmes? Zubac? Wagner? Adams?  There is no one.  Also, OO didn't get to play in the physical defense second half of the season where he would have been thriving.  Selling on him now would be a huge blunder.

He's one of the few assets we have that can provide quality return and he's not big enough to be a starting center.

[NBASupes]

On 4/16/2024 at 10:24 AM, REHawksFan said:

I think anyone that believes we do not need an upgrade at the Center position is fooling themselves.  Maybe that Edey.  Maybe that Clingan. Maybe that's an existing NBA player.  I don't know, but I do know that Clint was way too inconsistent this year.  And with the current construction of the team, we need our center, whomever they are, to be consistently really good.  

According to NBA.com's Player Impact Estimate (not perfect but best I got), Clint ranks 34th among NBA Centers in impact for the year.  Bruno ranks 69th and OO ranks 71st.  To be blunt, that sucks out loud for your Center rotation for the year.  

 

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/advanced?CF=MIN*GE*10&PlayerPosition=C&SeasonType=Regular Season&dir=-1&sort=PIE

Player Impact Estimate aka PIE, is a metric to gauge a player’s all-around contribution to the game. Almost all statistical categories in the box score are involved in the PIE formula. PIE answers what % of the events in a game each player contributed.

PIE Formula=(PTS + FGM + FTM – FGA – FTA + Deff.REB + Off.REB/2 + AST + STL + BLK/2 – PF – TO) / (Game.PTS + Game.FGM + Game.FTM – Game.FGA – Game.FTA + Game.Deff.REB + Game.Off.REB/2 + Game.AST + Game.STL + Game.BLK/2 – Game.PF – Game.TO)