Which one of the big 3 is most vulnerable?

[Wurider05]

I think that it will be a definite dog fight at the top next year. Out of Boston, Orlando, and Cleveland, which team do you think we can most likely overtake if we improve next year!! I don't now why but I think that Cleveland maybe ripe for the picking!! Chemistry issues, Lebron not signing the extension, plus for the most part we match up pretty well with them!

Edited July 31, 2009 by Wurider05

[buckeye242424]

I think that it will be a definite dog fight at the top next year. Out of Boston, Orlando, and Cleveland, which team do you think we can most likely overtake if we improve next year!! I don't now why but I think that Cleveland maybe ripe for the picking!! Chemistry issues, Lebron not signing the extension, plus for the most part we match up pretty well with them!

None of them. I think those three held serve or got better. We were behind them significantly as a four seed last year. We'll be lucky to be in the same situation, playoff wise, next year.

[sturt]

Does Carter make ORL better than they were with Turk? Maybe, but I don't think so.

While I think Rasheed makes BOS better, the bigger question is how much more will BOS ratchet down due to the injuries that older players tend to have. No one can answer that until the season evolves, but there's a reasonable chance that not only will Garnett continue to miss a number of games, but that Allen will, too.

And how much more does Shaq do for CLE that Ilgauskas didn't already do...

Sure, these moves made the Sportscenter opening story, but is it b/c they're truly substantive or is it b/c they're sexy moves?

I think it's a legitimate question.

I'm not suggesting that we're that far ahead of last season, but I do believe it's clearly the case that, at least, we are ahead if only b/c our young guys haven't reached the conventionally-held peak NBA age of 25, and should be expected to improve at least as much as Boston regresses... and btw, we really didn't have more than a 3-man low post rotation last season, so adding a solid vet like Joe Smith, assuming that happens, wouid be fairly significant in itself given the trade-off between giving Smith minutes versus giving Solo those same minutes.

Back to the original question of the thread, though....

I'm of the mind that Cleveland is going to be the most hungry, and that James situation is actually going to provide the needed sense of urgency to make them almost unstoppable. The only question will be, when they get to the playoffs, will that pressure continue to work for them, or will they suffer flashbacks from 2009.

I think Orlando actually would take a step backward except that I believe Howard's game will continue to mature and take them forward similar to how Tim Duncan led SA in his initial years.

Of the three, I see Boston as easily the most vulnerable. They went all-out to obtain Garnett and Allen two years ago, and eventually, quite possibly this season, the losses they've endured and the questions on their bench WILL catch up to them. Their only chance, imo, is to trade Rondo for an adequate Rondo replacement plus a solid bench player.

[JJFAN4LF]

Honestly, nobody.

People talk about the Boston getting old and becoming more injury prone but when KG went down last year, they were still a top team and still a contending team. I don't expect Boston to take a step down at all. I actually see them doing better as they'll be hungry to win and probably will be one of the hungriest teams to win next year.

Orlando didn't take a step back. The addition of Vince Carter finally gives them a player that you can go to whenever you want to score. Hedo did that but I think VC is better at creating his own shot. Plus, Rashard Lewis goes to the position he's better in, SF. They picked up Bass and also have Ryan Anderson at the 4. Gortat could also play that 4 position if they really want to go big. We know how the Celtics series we had two years ago left a bitter taste in our mouth, imagine Orlando....losing in the biggest stage when they know that they could have been the team that was up 3-1 And like sturt said, Dwight is only gonna get better.

Cleveland is gonna be there. It's scary to think, but I think Lebron will have his best season yet. His jumpshot has improved each season and if he can get a little bit more consistent with it, he can take the #1 player spot from Kobe. Lebron will be on a mission as well so it's really hard to see them fall down to the 4th. They added Moon and Parker who are very good role players.

If Josh Smith gets a basketball IQ, Al Horford gets some offensive game, and Marvin get some aggressiveness, then...yes, we do have a chance on snagging a top 3 seed. It's highly unlikely that we do though. We're still the favorite to get the 4th spot but teams like Washington, Toronto, Miami, Philadelphia could very well snag it from us.

[sturt]

Honestly, nobody.

People talk about the Boston getting old and becoming more injury prone but when KG went down last year, they were still a top team and still a contending team. I don't expect Boston to take a step down at all. I actually see them doing better as they'll be hungry to win and probably will be one of the hungriest teams to win next year.

But you illustrate the point, chilz... even with Big Baby and his heroics, BOS was not a serious contender after they lost Garnett.

Sure, if they can get through the year relatively injury free... I'd agree that they probably would be better... but their age doesn't predict that, but rather the opposite. And their bench beyond Rasheed is going to be even less impressive.

At the very least, I think you might agree that they're the most vulnerable (?) of the three.

[TeagueForMVP]

i think we could beat boston possibly

last year i even thought we could beat cavs but 3 of our starters was injured so...... yea

i strongly think we can get 52+ wins this year hopefully

[Wurider05]

You think that there is a chance we have a better record but a lower seed??

[Packfill]

Does Carter make ORL better than they were with Turk? Maybe, but I don't think so.

While I think Rasheed makes BOS better, the bigger question is how much more will BOS ratchet down due to the injuries that older players tend to have. No one can answer that until the season evolves, but there's a reasonable chance that not only will Garnett continue to miss a number of games, but that Allen will, too.

And how much more does Shaq do for CLE that Ilgauskas didn't already do...

Sure, these moves made the Sportscenter opening story, but is it b/c they're truly substantive or is it b/c they're sexy moves?

I think it's a legitimate question.

I'm not suggesting that we're that far ahead of last season, but I do believe it's clearly the case that, at least, we are ahead if only b/c our young guys haven't reached the conventionally-held peak NBA age of 25, and should be expected to improve at least as much as Boston regresses... and btw, we really didn't have more than a 3-man low post rotation last season, so adding a solid vet like Joe Smith, assuming that happens, wouid be fairly significant in itself given the trade-off between giving Smith minutes versus giving Solo those same minutes.

Back to the original question of the thread, though....

I'm of the mind that Cleveland is going to be the most hungry, and that James situation is actually going to provide the needed sense of urgency to make them almost unstoppable. The only question will be, when they get to the playoffs, will that pressure continue to work for them, or will they suffer flashbacks from 2009.

I think Orlando actually would take a step backward except that I believe Howard's game will continue to mature and take them forward similar to how Tim Duncan led SA in his initial years.

Of the three, I see Boston as easily the most vulnerable. They went all-out to obtain Garnett and Allen two years ago, and eventually, quite possibly this season, the losses they've endured and the questions on their bench WILL catch up to them. Their only chance, imo, is to trade Rondo for an adequate Rondo replacement plus a solid bench player.

If we assume the Hawks are going to improve due to the continued development of the young guys due to the fact they are under 25, then doesn't Cleveland (is Lebron 25 yet?), Orlando (Dwight is the same age as Al/Josh/Marvin, maybe development from Gortat and Anderson too) and Boston (Rondo also same age as Al/Josh/Marvin, plus Big Babby, if he returns, and Perkins) get a bump from continued development of their "young" guys?

In the end, I do think the Hawks have the most to gain from the development of their young players (how much better can LeBron and Dwight get), but they also have the most improvement to make as a team to crack the top 3 - there was a significant gap between those three and the Hawks last year. That being said, injuries will likely be the deciding factor.

[Diesel]

I think that it will be a definite dog fight at the top next year. Out of Boston, Orlando, and Cleveland, which team do you think we can most likely overtake if we improve next year!! I don't now why but I think that Cleveland maybe ripe for the picking!! Chemistry issues, Lebron not signing the extension, plus for the most part we match up pretty well with them!

Honestly.... Boston, Cleveland, and Orlando are vulnerable.

Boston because they are another year older. There are rumors that they want to trade Rondo and that can't be good for Chemistry.

Cleveland is vulnerable because teams that get Shaq has to choose what they will be. Will they be a inside out team. Will they use Shaq as a decoy. I have questions about Brown's ability to coach this. What does he do with Lebron? Cleveland is just like us in that they run a lot of ISOBron. The problem is will Shaq clog up the middle and make it harder for Lebron to push his man into the paint for a score? Will Bron try to fashion himself as a three point shooter. Then there's the quick decay of Shaq's skills. Shaq is old by Center standards. Will he slow down the Cavs pace? I think so. Will having Shaq make them better? I don't know. One thing I do know is that Shaq will not cover the pick and roll. Eastern teams like Washington, Detroit, and even Indiana will pose problems for the Cavs.

Orlando because nobody really knows how much Turk meant and how much Vince has. Will playing for a bonafide winner make Vince play to a higher level than he has over the past three years? Maybe. I condemned the trade because I liked Orlando's youth. However, Vince does bring experience. The other big question is will they roll Gortat to the PF position and play twin towers like the old Rockets and Spurs? I wouldn't be surprised to see the Polish Hammer being traded for a PF. Neither Gortat, Anderson, or Bass is starter quality.

[frosgrim]

Does Carter make ORL better than they were with Turk? Maybe, but I don't think so.

While I think Rasheed makes BOS better, the bigger question is how much more will BOS ratchet down due to the injuries that older players tend to have. No one can answer that until the season evolves, but there's a reasonable chance that not only will Garnett continue to miss a number of games, but that Allen will, too.

And how much more does Shaq do for CLE that Ilgauskas didn't already do...

Sure, these moves made the Sportscenter opening story, but is it b/c they're truly substantive or is it b/c they're sexy moves?

I think it's a legitimate question.

I'm not suggesting that we're that far ahead of last season, but I do believe it's clearly the case that, at least, we are ahead if only b/c our young guys haven't reached the conventionally-held peak NBA age of 25, and should be expected to improve at least as much as Boston regresses... and btw, we really didn't have more than a 3-man low post rotation last season, so adding a solid vet like Joe Smith, assuming that happens, wouid be fairly significant in itself given the trade-off between giving Smith minutes versus giving Solo those same minutes.

Back to the original question of the thread, though....

I'm of the mind that Cleveland is going to be the most hungry, and that James situation is actually going to provide the needed sense of urgency to make them almost unstoppable. The only question will be, when they get to the playoffs, will that pressure continue to work for them, or will they suffer flashbacks from 2009.

I think Orlando actually would take a step backward except that I believe Howard's game will continue to mature and take them forward similar to how Tim Duncan led SA in his initial years.

Of the three, I see Boston as easily the most vulnerable. They went all-out to obtain Garnett and Allen two years ago, and eventually, quite possibly this season, the losses they've endured and the questions on their bench WILL catch up to them. Their only chance, imo, is to trade Rondo for an adequate Rondo replacement plus a solid bench player.

Good analysis Sturt. I agree with everything here. Boston is the team that can slip, even without a serious injury. Skills erode and players get slower. I still haven't heard when KG is expected to be back at full strength: December? Later? I can't believe that he'll play big minutes before X-mas, but maybe. Wallace is a nice replacement, but age is catching up with Sheed.

Cleveland is set up for this season. I wouldn't be surprised to see Cleveland not win as many regular season games as last year. They have to figure out the Shaq thing, which may cost them games early in the season. That doesn't mean the Cavs are worse than last year, but their record may not be as good.

Orlando is a wild card to me. Carter may really help or he may cause it all to crash.

[Traceman]

I think that it will be a definite dog fight at the top next year. Out of Boston, Orlando, and Cleveland, which team do you think we can most likely overtake if we improve next year!! I don't now why but I think that Cleveland maybe ripe for the picking!! Chemistry issues, Lebron not signing the extension, plus for the most part we match up pretty well with them!

If we can get Marvin and Joe Smith in the fold, I like our chances to be competitive with all 3 teams. I think those 3 teams will obviously be favored to be better than us but it would not surprise me to see 1 of the 3 of them struggle to duplicate the successes they had last year and it would not surprise me to see us be better than we were last year. All it takes is for one of them to falter for us to have a shot tp reach one of those top 3 spots Of course other teams could be in the mix for a top 4 spot too. We shall see.

CLE - There is no guarantee that Shaq is going to be the missing piece they need to get over the hump, particualrly at his age. He may start off great and fade down the stretch or he may not start off that great in the first place. In addition, their guards are still on the smallish side and that can be exploited when we go to our big lineup.

ORL - VC is better than Turkoglu individually but it remains to be seen if he is a better fit for the team.

BOS - Those guys are likely to be motivated but they are likely to start slowing down significantly as well. Father time catches up to all of us.

[coachx]

I think we could over take Boston this year.

KG was showing signs of age BEFORE the injury. That dude has a ton of miles on him. He is older then his "earth years" due to playing 82 game seasons since he was 18.

Ray Allen and Paul Pierce are both slowing down.

Rasheed Wallace is washed up.

Both Rondo and Perkins will have to continue to get better to keep this team from falling backwards in the standings. I happen to think both of these guys have already maxed out on their potential.

So ya, I think we could be a #3 seed.

[macdaddy]

i just think Boston is ripe for an ego battle and I don't think Doc is one to keep that under control. I could see scenarios where they all are vulnerable but I think Clevland will still be there. Orlando needs some more tough players i think. Howard should be more of the centerpiece than he is but he needs some other guys around him who are going to play some d and dish out some punishment. They always look like they don't want to play a physical game to me.

My vote is for Boston to fall. Not out of the playoffs but i think they will struggle.

[xhawk]

Everyone keep says that Orlando lost Turkoglu and gained Carter, but they really lost more than that. They also lost Rafer Alston and Courtney Lee. Both of these guys played big minutes in their playoff run. So, in total, they lost three guys who played well last year. So I would say that that Orlando is most vulnerable.

[Dragitoff]

I don't think you need to evaluate head to head matchups, but look at the overall "on paper" improvements in the Eastern Conference. I think you'll see more competition and teams grinding it out throughout the season. The Braves were notorious during their run for being built for a 162 game season, but not perfectly built for a short playoff series. Having said that, look at our team. Joe was out of gas come playoffs, Marvin and Horford were hurt. Guys were beat up basically. We ran into a very deep Cleveland team that embarrassed us. I think Atlanta has done a good job of deepening our bench with quality players. Woody's use of them will play a key role into how we can leapfrog other teams.

I think you've got some age on teams like Boston. You might see a Pistonesque regression in them. They'll still be competitive and considered contenders, but at the end of the day, I think the real top teams in the East are Cleveland and Orlando.

Orlando is kind of a wild card. They blew up team chemistry by trading key guys for a scorer and signed some good pieces. Keep in mind, Hedo could run the offense for them. He played much different than VC does. Will VC mean fewer touches for Howard? If so, I think Orlando has some serious question marks, but could be even better than last season.

Cleveland made a splash trading for Shaq. You wonder how serious they will be with two of the NBA's biggest clowns on the same team. Lebron's immaturity was evident after his poor sportsmanship. It's ok to show up the other team, but not shake hands with them when they beat you? A guy like Shaq may be a great influence on LeBron or maybe not. That's a question mark along with both Shaq and Big Z's health.

The East has changed to a power conference and the Hawks don't match up well with that, but they can use their youth, speed and athleticism to outwork the big, aging brutes of the EC. Will they do it? Now there's Atlanta's question mark.

[RedDawg#8]

What all 3 did is esentially trade away depth and chemistry for a big name.

If Shaq doesnt make it through this season injury free, the Cavs could be in major trouble

Same goes for Bos and KG,

Orlando does not have history on their side, aside from the Lakers this year, most teams that lose is the finals dont return the next year. Add to that that they will have the most chemistry issues to fill and next year could see them take a major fall.

The Cavs added shaq, but inevitably lost more depth in their front court. the only good big on the bench is Illgauskus and he can only play one position as opposed to last season when they had Ben Wallace, Joe Smith and Lo Wright who could chip in at both PF/C. I think they are planning on using James more at PF this year, hence the additions of Parker and Moon who can play more SF for them. Overall, while they have the 2 biggest centers in the East on one roster, their front court has actually gotten smaller.

They recieve my vote for most vunerable

Edited August 1, 2009 by RedDawg#8

[Iman]

I've didn't really think Orlando was as good as their record last year, much less worthy of their finals appearance. I can easily see us and/or someone like Chicago bypassing Orlando this year and knocking them out of their homecourt playoff slot. All it will take is a extended injury to Rashard or Dwight, whereas with the addition of Jamal Crawford, I think we can get through most typical injury situations.

[exodus]

I can't believe how much people are underrating Orlando and Carter. Carter has scored over 20 ppg every year since his rookie year. Turk has never scored 20 ppg for a season in his career. Not only that he has had only two seasons in his career when he shot better than 42.2% from the field. He doesn't rebound much either and he certainly doesn't have an assist advantage on Carter.

Orlando will be starting 4 All-Stars and they have Gortat, Bass, Barnes, AJ and Anderson coming off the bench. They are stacked. The only real question mark i see is backup pg. They will probably look for another capable backup.

Edited August 1, 2009 by exodus

[TheNorthCydeRises]

If all 3 teams are healthy, we're not overtaking any of them. I fully believe that all three of those will win 62+ games ( along with the Lakers and Spurs )

The max I think we can win, is 55 games ( 50 - 52 games is more realistic ). The Hawks still have to prove that they can consistently beat teams on the road. Right now, I see us maybe winning 20 - 22 road games max, while possibly winning as many as 28 - 33 home games.

We need 2 of the 3 youngsters ( Smith, Horford, Marvin ) to develop into highly efficient players. If this happens, the Hawks sholuls just about beat every bad to mediocre team 80% of the time, and beat the good teams at least 50 - 60% of the time.

or

We need Crawford ro have a career year ( shooting wise, not point wise ). The usual 40% shooting Crawford would still make the Hawks as schizophrenic as ever. A 45% shooting Crawford will have us in good position to at least give that 3rd team a run for its money in the playoffs.

[Atlantaholic]

I can't believe how much people are underrating Orlando and Carter. Carter has scored over 20 ppg every year since his rookie year. Turk has never scored 20 ppg for a season in his career. Not only that he has had only two seasons in his career when he shot better than 42.2% from the field. He doesn't rebound much either and he certainly doesn't have an assist advantage on Carter.

Orlando will be starting 4 All-Stars and they have Gortat, Bass, Barnes, AJ and Anderson coming off the bench. They are stacked. The only real question mark i see is backup pg. They will probably look for another capable backup.

Exactly.

Turk is insanely overrated... The guy was CRAP for almost half the season last year (shot under 40% until January), and was, at best mediocre for most of his career. The dude had one, ONE, good year in the league. Carter is better at every facet of the game except maybe defense, where he is equally as bad as Turk. But the most important thing by far is that Carter finally gives them someone who can create for himself at any time. The one thing Orlando lacked was a go to guy at the end of game situations, and they now have that in Carter. Orlando is gonna be awesome next year, and will easily run away with our division. If Howard improves his offensive game even a little bit, than Orlando will be back in the Finals easily. The number one seed in the east will be down to Cleveland and Orlando. Boston's age will catch up with them big time. That is my prediction.