Jeff Teague 15/5 next season

[HawkWeisErrr]

Jeff Teague given the opportunity, has the chance to put up some really big numbers. In the few minutes he had I saw him run down fast breaks and had some Jsmoove type blocks. The talent is there, I see him taking the same path as Deron Williams of Utah, an unimpressive rookie year, but flourished from that point on. I'm not saying he will be as good as, I hope he's close, but the potential is there.

That's very possible if we send him to the D League. Maybe in a few years he will become a decent 10th man for the Hawks.

Let's all hope I am wrong about Teague's talent level.

Edited June 20, 2010 by HawkWeisErrr

[Buzzard]

That's very possible if we send him to the D League. Maybe in a few years he will become a decent 10th man for the Hawks.

Let's all hope I am wrong about Teague's talent level.

Lot of posters have your attitude on Teague. Cannot blame you/them considering all the wasted picks like Acie and Sheldon. But I do not recall either of those two ever having even a summer league game like this:

24 pts 15 assist 5 boards

Maybe he is just another bust but I like his game; and one other thing to remember, this was Sunds pick not BKs.

Edited June 20, 2010 by Buzzard

[DJlaysitup]

That's very possible if we send him to the D League. Maybe in a few years he will become a decent 10th man for the Hawks.

Let's all hope I am wrong about Teague's talent level.

I certainly hope you are wrong about Teague's talent level HWE...I think the jury is still way out.

[Final_quest]

Wow, -4 so far for my disagree. A lot of homer talk in this thread. My expectations are low. We need to see more than one good game against scrubs before we can coronate this guy.

Even Salim had a game where he went off for 37, and people were ready to make him our future PG too. The night we drafted him folks were talking about him as our next PG. What is he doing now?

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Disagree. I see him as a change of pace back up. Have not seen starter quality potential out of Teague. Although, I hope he makes me eat my words. I also hope we would consider bringing in a Tony Parker type who is on the block.

It's a shame that some of these posters give you negative posts for posting THE TRUTH. Everybody, including Teague's skeptics, want the kid to succeed. But just because some fans have delusional aspirations about a player, shouldn't shield them from what the real truth is.

Here's Truth #1:

For Teague to average 15 ppg and 5 assists next season, he'll probably have to be the 3rd leading scorer on the Hawks. Does anybody in their right mind believe that this kid can go from sporadic play, to our 3rd leading scorer . . with guys like Jamal Crawford, Al Horford, Josh Smith, and possibly Joe Johnson on the team?

Here's Truth #2:

These are the players who are 6-2 and under, who have posted a 15 point - 5 assist season in the past 5 years. I'll also list the number of times they've done this ( in parenthesis ):

Tony Parker ( 5 )

Chris Paul ( 5 )

Allen Iverson ( 3 )

Mo Williams ( 3 )

Stephon Marbury ( 2 )

Andre Miller ( 2 )

Mike Bibby ( 1 )

Aaron Brooks ( 1 )

Mike James ( 1 )

Brandon Jennings ( 1 )

Jameer Nelson ( 1 )

Jason Terry ( 1 )

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&type=per_game&per_minute_base=36&is_playoffs=N&year_min=2006&year_max=2010&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=0&age_max=99&height_min=0&height_max=74&lg_id=&franch_id=&is_active=&is_hof=&pos=&qual=&c1stat=pts_per_g&c1comp=gt&c1val=15&c2stat=ast_per_g&c2comp=gt&c2val=5&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=pts_per_g

That's it. 12 guys of that size in the last 5 years have accomplished this feat. And look who is at the bottom of that list of the link I posted. Do any of you honestly think that Teague can be on par with what Brandon Jennings did last year?

For Jeff to become even remotely a 15 - 5 guy, he's either going to have to become a very good 3 point shooter, or damn near unstoppable going to the hole. And he showed the potential to be NEITHER last year. The major thing that may prevent this, is his low trajectory on his jumpshot. He's definitely going to have to develop a floater to be an effective scorer.

Just be realistic people.

CBAreject and Final Quest posted the most realistic stuff here. Right now, he's a change of pace guard. If he averaged 10 ppg and 4 assists, people should be estatic, as long as he didn't shoot a terrible percentage. Don't put great expectations on the kid, until he shows that he can be a lead guard. Personally, if he can come into a game and affect it like Spud Webb used to do back on those 1980s Hawks teams, I'll be happy with that.

I just want the kid to impact a game, even if it's only for short stretches. Expecting him to be Deron Williams is unrealistic as hell.

[Buzzard]

It's a shame that some of these posters give you negative posts for posting THE TRUTH. Everybody, including Teague's skeptics, want the kid to succeed. But just because some fans have delusional aspirations about a player, shouldn't shield them from what the real truth is.

Here's Truth #1:

For Teague to average 15 ppg and 5 assists next season, he'll probably have to be the 3rd leading scorer on the Hawks. Does anybody in their right mind believe that this kid can go from sporadic play, to our 3rd leading scorer . . with guys like Jamal Crawford, Al Horford, Josh Smith, and possibly Joe Johnson on the team?

Here's Truth #2:

These are the players who are 6-2 and under, who have posted a 15 point - 5 assist season in the past 5 years. I'll also list the number of times they've done this ( in parenthesis ):

Tony Parker ( 5 )

Chris Paul ( 5 )

Allen Iverson ( 3 )

Mo Williams ( 3 )

Stephon Marbury ( 2 )

Andre Miller ( 2 )

Mike Bibby ( 1 )

Aaron Brooks ( 1 )

Mike James ( 1 )

Brandon Jennings ( 1 )

Jameer Nelson ( 1 )

Jason Terry ( 1 )

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&type=per_game&per_minute_base=36&is_playoffs=N&year_min=2006&year_max=2010&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=0&age_max=99&height_min=0&height_max=74&lg_id=&franch_id=&is_active=&is_hof=&pos=&qual=&c1stat=pts_per_g&c1comp=gt&c1val=15&c2stat=ast_per_g&c2comp=gt&c2val=5&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=pts_per_g

That's it. 12 guys of that size in the last 5 years have accomplished this feat. And look who is at the bottom of that list of the link I posted. Do any of you honestly think that Teague can be on par with what Brandon Jennings did last year?

For Jeff to become even remotely a 15 - 5 guy, he's either going to have to become a very good 3 point shooter, or damn near unstoppable going to the hole. And he showed the potential to be NEITHER last year. The major thing that may prevent this, is his low trajectory on his jumpshot. He's definitely going to have to develop a floater to be an effective scorer.

Just be realistic people.

CBAreject and Final Quest posted the most realistic stuff here. Right now, he's a change of pace guard. If he averaged 10 ppg and 4 assists, people should be estatic, as long as he didn't shoot a terrible percentage. Don't put great expectations on the kid, until he shows that he can be a lead guard. Personally, if he can come into a game and affect it like Spud Webb used to do back on those 1980s Hawks teams, I'll be happy with that.

I just want the kid to impact a game, even if it's only for short stretches. Expecting him to be Deron Williams is unrealistic as hell.

I know you like to go senasational when trying to prove a point so your reference to Jennings is expected. But the four guys listed below should not put anyone in awe; including Teague or yourself. I think he will go for 10 to 12 and 5 to 6 if given 30 to 35 starter type minutes a game; but I will also not rule out any chance he may exceed that and infer those who do are somehow putting him on a pedestal with Jennings and not more like the four above average guys below. But then again, maybe you think the four below should be held in the same company as Jennings since that is what you tried to infer with Teague being put in your list?

Mo Williams ( 3 )

Aaron Brooks ( 1 )

Mike James ( 1 )

Jameer Nelson ( 1 )

[Final_quest]

I know you like to go senasational when trying to prove a point so your reference to Jennings is expected. But the four guys listed below should not put anyone in awe; including Teague or yourself. I think he will go for 10 to 12 and 5 to 6 if given 30 to 35 starter type minutes a game; but I will also not rule out any chance he may exceed that and infer those who do are somehow putting him on a pedestal with Jennings and not more like the four above average guys below. But then again, maybe you think the four below should be held in the same company as Jennings since that is what you tried to infer with Teague being put in your list?

Mo Williams ( 3 )

Aaron Brooks ( 1 )

Mike James ( 1 )

Jameer Nelson ( 1 )

Whoa this thread isn't about if Jennings is on the same level as these four. His overall point is that anyone expecting Teague to average 15 and 5 is an unrealistic homer. If he is as good as the four guys here, we should be ecstatic.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

I know you like to go senasational when trying to prove a point so your reference to Jennings is expected. But the four guys listed below should not put anyone in awe; including Teague or yourself. I think he will go for 10 to 12 and 5 to 6 if given 30 to 35 starter type minutes a game; but I will also not rule out any chance he may exceed that and infer those who do are somehow putting him on a pedestal with Jennings and not more like the four above average guys below. But then again, maybe you think the four below should be held in the same company as Jennings since that is what you tried to infer with Teague being put in your list?

Mo Williams ( 3 )

Aaron Brooks ( 1 )

Mike James ( 1 )

Jameer Nelson ( 1 )

There's nothing sensational about my post. I simply posted the facts. And you obviously didn't look at that link. If you did, you didn't pay attention to what you saw.

So for the 4 guys you listed, here's what they did in those seasons in which they produced that number:

Mo Williams

2006 - 07:

17.3 ppg

6.1 asst

45% FG ( 15.1 FGA )

35% 3FG

86% FT ( 2.7 FTA )

2nd leading scorer on Milwaukee behind Redd

2007 - 08:

17.2 ppg

6.3 asst

48% FG ( 13.9 FG attempts )

39% 3FG

86% FT ( 2.9 FT attempts )

2nd leading scorer on Milwaukee behind Redd

2009 - 10:

15.8 ppg

5.3 asst

44% FG ( 12.4 FG attempts )

43% 3FG ( 2.3 makes per game )

89% FT ( 2.9 FT attempts )

2nd leading scorer on Cleveland behind Lebron

*****************************

Aaron Brooks

2009 - 10:

19.6 ppg

5.3 asst

43% FG ( 16.2 FG attempts )

40% 3FG ( 2.5 makes per game )

82% FT ( 3.6 FT attempts )

2nd leading scorer on Houston behind Kevin Martin

****************************

Mike James

2005 - 06:

20.3 ppg

5.8 asst

47% FG ( 15.5 FG attempts )

44% 3FG ( 2.1 makes per game )

84% FT ( 4.3 FT attempts )

2nd leading scorer on Raptors behind Bosh

*****************************

Jameer Nelson ( hurt for 1/2 of the season )

16.7 pts

5.4 asst

50% FG ( 12.6 FG attempts )

45% 3FG ( 2 makes per game )

89% FT ( 2.3 FT attempts )

4th leading scorer on Magic ( .1 behind Turkoglu, who averaged 16.8 )

*****************************

I don't why you listed those 4 names Buzz. Those 4 guys had MUCH BETTER YEARS than what Jennings had last year. The season Jennings had was the MINIMUM STANDARD on that list.

If nbadraft.net was right in their NBA comparison for Teague, then the Hawks will have their PG of the future for years to come. But it's interesting to note where they gave Teague the most high marks, and the most low marks.

High Marks of 9: Atleticism, Quickness, and Potential . . . these are things we all covet about the kid.

Low Marks of 6: NBA Ready and Defense . . . which are things that I definitely see the kid wasn't ready for last year.

Everybody is rooting for Teague. But some of us aren't going to go crazy over him either.

The crazy thing is . . . if Teague is to excel, we may have to get rid of both JJ AND Jamal Crawford, seeing that they both tend to dominate the ball. With both here, he may never reach his potential. With one here, he still may not, because the other guy is still going to need the ball. And by what we saw of Teague this year, he's not an effective player when the ball isn't in his hands, and is relegated to being a spot-up shooter.

That's why the jury is definitely out on Teague.

Edited June 21, 2010 by northcyde

[KB21]

I know you like to go senasational when trying to prove a point so your reference to Jennings is expected. But the four guys listed below should not put anyone in awe; including Teague or yourself. I think he will go for 10 to 12 and 5 to 6 if given 30 to 35 starter type minutes a game; but I will also not rule out any chance he may exceed that and infer those who do are somehow putting him on a pedestal with Jennings and not more like the four above average guys below. But then again, maybe you think the four below should be held in the same company as Jennings since that is what you tried to infer with Teague being put in your list?

Mo Williams ( 3 )

Aaron Brooks ( 1 )

Mike James ( 1 )

Jameer Nelson ( 1 )

I agree with this. My conservative projection of his production this year is basically him producing at the same rate he did as a rookie just with more playing time.

Jeff Teague's per 36 minutes and advanced stats looked like this as a rookie:

11.4 P/36

6.1 A/36

3.4 R/36

1.7 S/36

0.6 B/36

2.5 TO/36

11.0 PER

0.459 TS%

0.412 eFG%

25.1 Assist Rate

19.1 USG%

96 ORtg

106 DRtg

0.042 WS/48

It's not inconceivable to anticipate that with a different role and more playing time (likely a starting job), he could match his per 36 numbers as a rookie. Personaly, I expect that he will actually improve, because I think Larry Drew will allow Jeff Teague to play to his strength, which is his ability to penetrate into the lane and attack the rim.

Teague's rookie numbers area actually pretty close to Jason Terry's rookie numbers, and I know that comparison has been brought up already. I think the big difference between the two is that Jason Terry is more of a pure shooter while Jeff Teague attacks the basket. Jason Terry's scoring output went up markedly in his second season while his assist numbers and rate went down, but he was also on a less talented team at that time. Jeff Teague will have better players around him, so if he just looks for them, he could repeat or improve his 25.1 assist rate.

Obviously, Jeff has some improvements he needs to make in his game. Among those, he must get stronger so he can finish at a higher rate than the 55% he posted this past season. He also has to become more consistent in the 16-23 feet range as a jump shooter. The jury is definitely still out on him, but there is no reason to think that he will not be able to make these improvements.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Whoa this thread isn't about if Jennings is on the same level as these four. His overall point is that anyone expecting Teague to average 15 and 5 is an unrealistic homer. If he is as good as the four guys here, we should be ecstatic.

Exactly.

But you know how it goes man. Sometimes, we all overhype these players.

- Marvin was a potential Tracy McGrady ( or as I once thought, a potential Glen Rice . . if he developed the 3 point shot )

- Josh Smith was/is a potential superstar ( or as our owner says, "the closest thing to Lebron in this league" )

- Sheldon could be Ben Wallace

- Salim could be Vinnie Johnson

- Horford can be Karl Malone

- and on, and on, and on

So now Teague can be Deron Williams. Not impossible. But a lot of things would have to be developed in order for him to even approach that level of play.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

I agree with this. My conservative projection of his production this year is basically him producing at the same rate he did as a rookie just with more playing time.

Jeff Teague's per 36 minutes and advanced stats looked like this as a rookie:

11.4 P/36

6.1 A/36

3.4 R/36

1.7 S/36

0.6 B/36

2.5 TO/36

11.0 PER

0.459 TS%

0.412 eFG%

25.1 Assist Rate

19.1 USG%

96 ORtg

106 DRtg

0.042 WS/48

It's not inconceivable to anticipate that with a different role and more playing time (likely a starting job), he could match his per 36 numbers as a rookie. Personaly, I expect that he will actually improve, because I think Larry Drew will allow Jeff Teague to play to his strength, which is his ability to penetrate into the lane and attack the rim.

Teague's rookie numbers area actually pretty close to Jason Terry's rookie numbers, and I know that comparison has been brought up already. I think the big difference between the two is that Jason Terry is more of a pure shooter while Jeff Teague attacks the basket. Jason Terry's scoring output went up markedly in his second season while his assist numbers and rate went down, but he was also on a less talented team at that time. Jeff Teague will have better players around him, so if he just looks for them, he could repeat or improve his 25.1 assist rate.

Obviously, Jeff has some improvements he needs to make in his game. Among those, he must get stronger so he can finish at a higher rate than the 55% he posted this past season. He also has to become more consistent in the 16-23 feet range as a jump shooter. The jury is definitely still out on him, but there is no reason to think that he will not be able to make these improvements.

This is Mike Conley of Memphis, the player some people wanted to be taken instead of Al Horford. If Teague can give us what Conley gave the Grizzlies in his 2nd season, I'd be elated.

As for a Teague / Terry comparison . . Terry saw his usage jump from 19.2 to 25.1, and in the process, become the leading scorer for the Hawks.

Like I said . . for Teague to reach the potential that some of you think he can reach, you may have to get rid of the 2 most dominant ball handlers on the team ( Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford ). Would people actually be willing to do that, just to develop Jeff Teague to his potential?

Edited June 21, 2010 by northcyde

[Buzzard]

There's nothing sensational about my post. I simply posted the facts. And you obviously didn't look at that link. If you did, you didn't pay attention to what you saw.

*****************************

I don't why you listed those 4 names Buzz. Those 4 guys had MUCH BETTER YEARS than what Jennings had last year. The season Jennings had was the MINIMUM STANDARD on that list.

If nbadraft.net was right in their NBA comparison for Teague, then the Hawks will have their PG of the future for years to come. But it's interesting to note where they gave Teague the most high marks, and the most low marks.

High Marks of 9: Atleticism, Quickness, and Potential . . . these are things we all covet about the kid.

Low Marks of 6: NBA Ready and Defense . . . which are things that I definitely see the kid wasn't ready for last year.

Everybody is rooting for Teague. But some of us aren't going to go crazy over him either.

The crazy thing is . . . if Teague is to excel, we may have to get rid of both JJ AND Jamal Crawford, seeing that they both tend to dominate the ball. With both here, he may never reach his potential. With one here, he still may not, because the other guy is still going to need the ball. And by what we saw of Teague this year, he's not an effective player when the ball isn't in his hands, and is relegated to being a spot-up shooter.

That's why the jury is definitely out on Teague.

The reason I listed Jennings is clearly because he had a sensational rookie season and you pin pointed the fact that Jennings was in that company. My point is that of those four guys listed only Mo has done it more than once and none are considered superstar PGs....

Edited June 21, 2010 by Buzzard

[lethalweapon3]

15 pts is out of reach for next year IMO, but I am still giddy on Blink's potential. 10-and-5 on this team will make me very happy.

We have some wonderful free throw shooters in the backcourt already, and he seems highly confident for a young player at the FT line. We'll need Teague to get around his defender more and make better decisions when he drives inside. Getting his long-range shooting up above 30 percent will make that task easier. As I've said elsewhere (The "Five Guys" Diet) I'd also like him to bulk up by about 10-15 pounds this summer. Although it's not much to say, I think he's already ahead of where Jason Terry was defensively after Year 1, so the learning curve on defense is not as steep.

~lw3

[TheNorthCydeRises]

The reason I listed Jennings is clearly because he had a sensational rookie season and you pin pointed the fact that Jennings was in that company. My point is that of those four guys listed only Mo has done it more than once and none are considered superstar PGs....

That's because it is very difficult to do. And Jennings was very inconsistent last year and only shot 37% FG, although he did shoot a decent 37% from three. He's not going to be allowed to take that many shots, if he's going to continue to shoot sub 40%. Ultimately, Jennings is going to either have to become a deadly outside shooter, or a better finisher going to the hole, in order to be a big time PG.

Like I said Buzz, all I did was post the facts of the situation. Nothing sensational about my post. And those 4 players you mentioned had better seasons than Jennings did.

People should be just happy to get solid production from Teague, and not expect him to be a top 10 PG overnight.

[NJHAWK]

Teague seemed very fast on a straight line but didnt show a whole lot of handle or breakdown dribbles. He also showed a Dennis Rodman like jump shot. Brick city babaaaaay.

[NineOhTheRino]

he should be able to get those numbers based on the fact that his minutes will drastically increase.

[AHF]

Everyone knows I beat Woodson up around here for Teague's minutes, but I don't think 15/5 is probably very reasonable for him next year. I would be content with 11/5 on better %s. Upside from there would be gravy. Hopefully Bibby can rejuvenate himself with more rest as well.

[Final_quest]

I think there is another assumption going on in this thread, mainly that Teague will start.

If we have Crawford, JJ, and Bibby back. I'm not sure his minutes will increase as dramatically as people are expecting. We will wait and see, but if we have the same guards next year I'm not expecting more than 15-20 minutes a night for Teague. Average will be 7-8 ppg and around 4 assists.

[Buzzard]

I think there is another assumption going on in this thread, mainly that Teague will start.

If we have Crawford, JJ, and Bibby back. I'm not sure his minutes will increase as dramatically as people are expecting. We will wait and see, but if we have the same guards next year I'm not expecting more than 15-20 minutes a night for Teague. Average will be 7-8 ppg and around 4 assists.

I agree that Teague starting is not automatic; but I also think he will be given every opportunity to take over the job from Bibby. And at the end of the day, I think he will and get 30 to 35 minutes a game...