They like us, they really really like us...........

HawkItus · October 18, 2012

This story appears in ESPN The Magazine's Oct. 29 NBA Preview. Subscribe today!

Last season, LeBron James led the Heat to the NBA title by means of a full-on half-court makeover: fewer long-range jumpers + more low-post play = greater efficiency = better team. But what if every team had an impact player who completed a similar transformation? We asked Kirk Goldsberry, creator of CourtVision Analytics, to identify the star on each franchise most in need of a LeBron-style makeover and to offer a cure for what ails that player's game. Then, since two eggheads are always better than one, we had the geniuses at Basketball Prospectus project each NBA team's season through simulations of every game. The consensus? A Heat-Nuggets Finals. The winner? Let's just say, not one, not two ...

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1. Miami Heat | Southeast: 1st

Conventional wisdom That banner in the rafters will announce that the King has shed his can't-win-the-big-one rep. His Big Three mates? Still plenty young enough. Yep, it's all going to plan -- and there's nothing any other team can do about it.

Actual wisdom Don't save a spot on the Biscayne Boulevard parade route just yet. The Heat might look stronger with the signings of D-stretching sharpshooters Ray Allen (career 40 percent from three) and Rashard Lewis (39 percent), but health and durability issues lurk. Dwyane Wade, Bosh, Mike Miller and Allen all had surgery or some significant rehab this offseason. And managing minutes, egos and title-or-bust expectations won't get easier for coach Erik Spoelstra. -- Michael Wallace

Basketball Prospectus predictions

Projected record: 60.7-21.3

If LBJ has a PER of 31: 61-21 (1-seed)

If LBJ has a PER of 27: 55-27 (1-seed)

2. Atlanta Hawks | Southeast: 2nd

Conventional Wisdom Sure, by trading six-time All-Star Joe Johnson, new GM Danny Ferry tidied up the cap and readied the Hawks for a down-the-road free agent spree. Short term, though, the team has taken a big step back.

Actual wisdom Salary dump? What salary dump? Atlanta inked a cheaper high-scoring playmaker in Lou Williams. He and Jeff Teague will stay busy finding new hires Kyle Korver and Anthony Morrow on the perimeter and Smith and a fully healed Al Horford (career 18.1 PER) in transition. All of those producers mean more points for the Hawks than their opponents -- and what some folks might consider a surprisingly high seed in the postseason. -- John Hollinger

Basketball Prospectus predictions

Projected record: 50.5-31.5

If Horford plays 82 games: 52-30 (2-seed)

If Horford plays 11 games: 43-39 (8-seed)

3. New York Knicks | Atlantic: 1st

Conventional wisdom The Knicks have added a fantasy team of useful vets, making them as deep as anyone in the East -- and a lock to win their first playoff series since 2000.

Actual wisdom Like a recurring nightmare, New York has imported a few more shopworn names and crossed its fingers. Maybe the geezers help grab a couple of extra wins; more likely, they take turns propping each other up right before their hearts give out. Still, this dream actually will end differently if Carmelo and Amar'e figure out how to share the ball (the Knicks were outscored by almost four points per 100 possessions when the duo were on the court together last season). -- Bradford Doolittle

Basketball Prospectus predictions

Projected record: 49.4-32.6

If Anthony shoots 49 percent: 53-29 (2-seed)

If Anthony shoots 43 percent: 48-34 (4-seed)

4. Boston Celtics | Atlantic: 2nd

Conventional wisdom Only a crazy person would pick a team that was old four years ago, then replaced Ray Allen with a sprinkle of has-beens and never-will-bes.

Actual wisdom Only a slightly less crazy person would bet against them. One of those replacements is seasoned gunner Jason Terry (career 38 percent 3-point shooter), and he'll likely jump-start that 25th-ranked offense. Also, last we checked, Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce were still elite defenders -- tying career lows in defensive rating last season (94 and 99, respectively). Don't be fooled: A Big Three lives on in Beantown; now it just features a locked-in Rondo (career AST percent of 40). And it still matches up with any team. -- Henry Abbott

Basketball Prospectus predictions

Projected record: 48.9-33.1

If Rondo has a TS percent of 54: 51-31 (2-seed)

If Rondo has a TS percent of 47: 47-35 (6-seed)

5. Philadelphia 76ers | Atlantic: 3rd

Conventional wisdom Andrew Bynum adds an interior presence (career ORtg: 116) to a team that barely can recall what it's like to have one. Last season's playoff run was surprising; this season's won't be.

Actual wisdom The Sixers seem to have all the answers: 1) a solid trio of bigs -- Bynum, Spencer Hawes and Lavoy Allen -- who can score and protect the paint; 2) a ripening young backcourt in Jrue Holiday and Turner; and 3) a team D that ranked third in 2011-12. Well, most of the answers anyway: They still haven't figured out how to hang with Miami. -- Chris Broussard

Basketball Prospectus predictions

Projected record: 47.5-34.5

With new bigs (Bynum/Hawes/Turner): 48-34 (5-seed)

With old bigs (Hawes/Brand/Iguodala): 46-36 (6-seed)

6. Chicago Bulls | Central: 1st

Conventional wisdom The Bulls will struggle to stay afloat as they await the return of Derrick Rose, whose knee will keep him in street clothes for months.

Actual wisdom Hey, "they" got one right -- but for the wrong reasons. Rose is an A-lister for sure, but look it up: The Bulls were actually 18-9 last season without their MVP. The team was buoyed by the Bench Mob -- John Lucas III, Kyle Korver and Omer Asik, with Asik ranking in the 96th percentile in defensive points per possession. Problem is, all three were thrown overboard this summer. SOS. -- Tom Haberstroh

Basketball Prospectus predictions

Projected record: 47-35

If Rose plays 30 games: 49-33 (4-seed)

If Rose misses entire season: 42-40 (8-seed)

7. Brooklyn Nets | Atlantic: 4th

Conventional wisdom The Nets appeared to remake their team, bringing in All-Star swingman Johnson and his 18.8 ppg to form a prolific backcourt with the newly re-signed Deron Williams.

Actual wisdom Almost landing Dwight Howard is not actually landing Dwight Howard. You could do worse than Brook Lopez as your Plan B, but unless the seven-footer finds the religion of the boards (6 rpg in '10-11), the Nets won't look as strong on the court as they do on paper. And on paper, anything less than a 7-seed should be viewed as failure. -- C.B.

Basketball Prospectus predictions

Projected record: 44.4-37.6

If Lopez averages 9 rpg: 46-36 (7-seed)

If Lopez averages 4 rpg: 41-41 (8-seed)

8. Indiana Pacers | Central: 2nd

Conventional wisdom After locking up the key players from last season's spunky run, the Pacers are poised to fill the gap at the top of the Eastern Conference caused by Derrick Rose's injury.

Actual wisdom Last season's starting five was dominant. Know what else it was? Improbably healthy. Paul George, David West, Granger, Darren Collison and Roy Hibbert played 1,000 minutes together -- or 253 more than any other five NBA teammates spent as a unit. Hope they all took it easy this summer. Indiana did little to overhaul its weak bench, so the starters will have to work overtime again. Counting on a repeat of a statistical anomaly is no way to game-plan. -- Beckley Mason

Basketball Prospectus predictions

Projected record: 44.4-37.6

If Granger scores 25.8 ppg: 51-31 (2-seed)

If Granger scores 18.7 ppg: 46-36 (7-seed)

9. Toronto Raptors | Atlantic: 5th

Conventional wisdom The Raptors are deeper and stronger defensively than they've been in years, putting them in the mix for a bottom-half playoff spot.

Actual wisdom Deeper isn't enough. Lock up Bargnani and new point guard Kyle Lowry and who puts the ball in the hole? Toronto was 29th in offensive rating last year. There is, of course, vague hope in youth: Landry Fields, Jonas Valanciunas and Terrence Ross will keep the Raptors in most games. But if they keep the team in the playoff hunt, it says more about the other conference also-rans than it does about this one. -- Tim Legler

Basketball Prospectus predictions

Projected record: 40.6-41.4

If Lowry is the PG: 40-42 (9th in East)

If Jose Calderon is the PG: 37-45 (9th in East)

10. Milwaukee Bucks | Central: 3rd

Conventional wisdom The Bucks don't care; they've made the playoffs just seven times in 20 years. The fans don't care; they've stopped showing up. Why should anyone care? Well, Ellis is fun to watch.

Actual wisdom Ellis is fun to watch, but there's more to see in Milwaukee. Brandon Jennings (19.1 ppg, 5.5 apg) gives this team another Iverson-type live wire, and if F Ersan Ilyasova (career-high 20.5 PER in 2011-12) proves that last season wasn't a fluke (a previous PER high of 15.7), attention -- actual attention -- will have to be paid in Milwaukee. -- H.A.

Basketball Prospectus predictions

Projected record: 37.1-44.9

If Ellis shoots 53 percent: 43-39 (9th in East)

If Ellis shoots 42 percent: 36-46 (10th in East)

11. Cleveland Cavaliers | Central: 4th

Conventional wisdom They're too young. With 10 players with no more than two years of experience, the Cavs need another year before talk of the playoffs sounds like anything other than childish blather.

Actual wisdom These guys are growing up fast. He might be just 20, but last season's top rookie, Irving, played like he's been doing it for years: In crunch time, Irving shot 54 percent from the field, 67 percent from three and 89 percent from the line. Add budding star Tristan Thompson and dynamic first-year man Dion Waiters and the Cavs are much closer than you think. -- Brian Windhorst

Basketball Prospectus predictions

Projected record: 29.5-52.5

If Irving gets 25/10: 35-47 (11th in East)

If Irving gets 19/5: 22-60 (14th in East)

12. Detroit Pistons | Central: 5th

Conventional wisdom The Pistons, who haven't won more than 30 games in a season since 2008-09, have mired themselves in a youth movement.

Actual wisdom Please don't shoot the hometown messenger, but it's true -- this rebuild could take some time. Take heart, Motor City: It'll be worth the wait. Big man Greg Monroe, with his 15/10 and 22 PER, is a franchise cornerstone. Sophomore PG Knight, who shot 38 percent from three, will push the tempo. And No. 9 pick Andre Drummond will team with Monroe to form a frontcourt tandem that someday might remind Pistons fans of those pesky Bad Boys. Someday. -- Jalen Rose

Basketball Prospectus predictions

Projected record: 27.1-54.9

If Drummond averages 16 ppg and 12 rpg: 40-42 (9th in East)

If Drummond averages 8 ppg and 6 rpg: 29-53 (12th in East)

13. Washington Wizards | Southeast: 3rd

Conventional wisdom Purging bad attitudes and worse contracts has an upside, but it has left the Wizards with a raw roster (eight players with fewer than three years of experience). And Wall isn't ready to lead it.

Actual wisdom With vets Trevor Ariza and Nene flanking Emeka Okafor, personal responsibility has come to DC. The Wizards won eight of their final 10 last spring, with Wall shooting less, passing more and finishing as one of three players (CP3 and D-Will) to average 16/8. In an infinite universe, there are some worlds in which the Wizards actually make the playoffs. -- J.A. Adande

Basketball Prospectus predictions

Projected record: 24.1-57.9

If Wall shoots 48 percent: 27-55 (12th in East)

If Wall shoots 42 percent: 24-58 (13th in East)

14. Orlando Magic | Southeast: 4th

Conventional wisdom With one finger snap (and many calls from the 213 area code; hello, is Dwight there?), the Magic conjured an impressive disappearing act. Poof! A contender goes up in a puff of smoke.

Actual wisdom Hard to disagree here. Until last season, Stan Van Gundy's team always boasted a top-five D and was among the NBA leaders in 3's, feats assumed to be mutually exclusive. Now O-Town is light the NBA's top defender, two snipers (Chris Duhon, Jason Richardson) and the coach who made it work. If the Magic escape the lottery, it won't be a neat trick. It'll be a miracle. -- B.M.

Basketball Prospectus predictions

Projected record: 23.5-58.5

If Howard were still the center: 35-47 (11th in East)

If Glen Davis plays center: 24-58 (14th in East)

15. Charlotte Bobcats | Southeast: 5th

Conventional wisdom After logging the NBA's worst winning percentage ever, the Bobcats have nowhere to go but up. And c'mon, Gerald Henderson was their best player last year, so how hard could that be?

Actual wisdom Pretty hard. The Bobcats were so much worse than every other team -- last in offensive and defensive rating -- that they're facing another year in the NBA's basement. At least plugging in rookie finisher Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and PG Ramon Sessions (and his career ORtg of 108) will nudge the bunch of slackers who averaged just 87 ppg last season. -- Marc Stein

Basketball Prospectus predictions

Projected record: 16.5-65.5

If Kidd-Gilchrist averages 15 ppg, 6 rpg: 21-61 (15th in East)

If Kidd-Gilchrist averages 6 ppg, 4 rpg: 15-67 (15th in East)

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1. Denver Nuggets | Northwest: 1st

Conventional Wisdom: The Nuggets will always be fun to watch, but c'mon, there's no way these guys are legit contenders. Think about it: When was the last time a team won it all without a single bona fide star? No further questions.

Actual wisdom: Denver has no big scorers, it's true, but stars aren't built on points alone. There's a reason Iguodala is an Olympic gold medalist. He's a defensive straitjacket who happens to be able to beat you offensively in lots of ways: LeBron James was the only other NBAer last season to average at least 12, 5 and 5. And no one held opponents to a lower PER than Iggy did (8.7). Plop him in Denver and what do you get? The likely top seed in the West. -- T.H.

Basketball Prospectus predictions

Projected record: 58.2-23.8

If Iguodala averages 12/6/6: 59-23 (1-seed)

If Denver hadn't acquired Iggy: 55-27 (5-seed)

2. Oklahoma City Thunder | Northwest: 2nd

Conventional Wisdom: The Thunder arrived in 2011-12, going 47-19 in the regular season and reaching the NBA Finals. Still, they can't compete with the reloaded and experienced Lakers.

Actual wisdom: Compete with the Lakers? OKC might very well lap them. The average age of the Thunder's starting lineup is still seven -- seven! -- years younger than the Lakers'. And this team is nothing if not battle-hardened. In the past two seasons, the Thunder have played 37 postseason games, more than any other Western Conference team. Plus, they have the kryptonite for Superman. Dwight Howard has scored fewer than 20 points in seven of 13 playoff games against Kendrick Perkins. -- J.A.A.

Basketball Prospectus predictions

Projected record: 58.1-23.9

If Russell Westbrook takes 15 shots/game: 59-23 (1-seed)

If Westbrook takes 20 shots/game: 58-24 (2-seed)

3. Minnesota Timberwolves | Northwest: 3rd

Conventional Wisdom: Minnesota is on the upswing, but let's not get ahead of ourselves -- at least until Ricky Rubio is out of street clothes.

Actual wisdom: Remember the Thunder! Is it heresy to think this team can be the next OKC, suddenly emerging from the NBA's netherworld to wreak havoc? Granted, Minny hasn't made the playoffs since 2004 and hasn't broken 30 wins since '06-07. But even without Rubio, the Wolves are deeper than ever. As long as Love, the league's second-best Kevin, continues to pack his own kind of MVP stat line, they will be fine. And if out-of-mothballs Brandon Roy and Andrei Kirilenko have something to bolster the 25th-ranked D, Minnesota will be way better than that. -- B.D.

Basketball Prospectus predictions

Projected record: 57.9-24.1

If Rubio plays 60 games: 58-24 (2-seed)

If Rubio plays 20 games: 56-26 (5-seed)

4. Los Angeles Lakers | Pacific: 1st

Conventional Wisdom: Dwight Howard! Steve Nash! Kobe Bryant! Pau Gasol! How can the Lakers not be on their way to another title?

Actual wisdom: The roster is definitely stacked at the top, but then what? The bench remains a cobbled-together afterthought. Certain teams can get away with no reinforcements, but not this one: Bryant, Gasol, Nash, Metta World Peace & they're all on the wrong side of their career bell curves. Worse, Kobe is not gliding gently into his golden years. Last season, he posted the lowest true shooting percentage and second-highest usage rate of his career. What good is an A-list core if one of its members refuses to blend into the crowd? -- B.M.

Basketball Prospectus predictions

Projected record: 57.5-24.5

If Howard plays 60 games: 56-26 (5-seed)

If Howard plays 20 games: 49-33 (6-seed)

5. San Antonio Spurs | Southwest: 1st

Conventional Wisdom: Credit the Spurs for trying something different last season, revving up to the seventh-fastest pace in the league. But you can't outrace the clock. San Antonio is old and obsolete.

Actual wisdom: The Spurs are fresher than you think (see page 79). Six of their top seven scorers were 30 or younger, and those six -- Parker, Kawhi Leonard, Tiago Splitter, DeJuan Blair, Danny Green and Gary Neal -- had an average PER of 17.7. As Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili age out, the Spurs are building on the fly. Besides, you want to bet against Coach Pop? -- J.A.A.

Basketball Prospectus predictions

Projected record: 55.9-26.1

If Duncan plays 30 mpg: 56-26 (5-seed)

If Duncan plays 24 mpg: 56-26 (5-seed)

6. Los Angeles Clippers | Pacific: 2nd

Conventional Wisdom: As much as it pains the world to say it, some savvy offseason moves confirm that Donald Sterling's team might actually have a clue. Doesn't hurt that it has Chris Paul and Griffin too.

Actual wisdom: It's true. Call it Keeping Up With the Kupchaks. The O is a portrait of efficiency, with the NBA's fourth-best ORtg. And when the D showed cracks, LA grabbed Grant Hill (who defended three positions in Phoenix, holding each to PERs under 13) and Lamar Odom (who hasn't had a DRtg above 104 since '07). Smart, right? Yeah, we can't explain it either. -- Chris Palmer

Basketball Prospectus predictions

Projected record: 51.6-30.4

If Paul has a PER of 30: 59-23 (1-seed)

If Paul has a PER of 22: 48-34 (6-seed)

7. Utah Jazz | Northwest: 4th

Conventional Wisdom: Power lifters Al Jefferson and Millsap are enough to lug the Jazz to another winning record -- and another early postseason exit.

Actual wisdom: What's the point? Utah's highest-paid and best players are entering their contract years, and nobody thinks the Jazz can make a real run in the West, so now is as good a time as any to rethink things. Still, there's no need for a wholesale renovation. Young forwards Derrick Favors and Jeremy Evans and center Enes Kanter make it easy to foresee a world without Jefferson or Millsap. -- B.D.

Basketball Prospectus predictions

Projected record: 46.7-35.3

If Millsap plays 35 mpg, Jefferson 0: 46-36 (7-seed)

If Jefferson plays 35 mpg, Millsap 0: 46-36 (7-seed)

8. Memphis Grizzlies | Southwest: 2nd

Conventional Wisdom: Go ahead and admire Memphis' grit, but the team didn't really progress last season and got no stronger over the summer. In fact, it might have gotten weaker, losing O.J. Mayo. How can the Grizzlies possibly hang in the West?

Actual wisdom: They can't. Although it left quite an impression, it's going on two years since Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph shocked the Spurs in the playoffs. Those two aren't getting any younger -- the 31-year-old Randolph in particular figures to age badly -- and not even Gay can change that. Time to face facts: The Grizzlies aren't the giant killers they had us believing they could be. Fact is, they went 2-9 against the Spurs, Thunder and Lakers last season. -- H.A.

Basketball Prospectus predictions

Projected record: 45.7-36.3

If Randolph plays 75 games: 47-35 (7-seed)

If Randolph plays 28 games: 41-41 (9th in West)

9. Dallas Mavericks | Southwest: 3rd

Conventional Wisdom: Considering the Mavs refused to bring in anyone on more than a one-year deal, they did well for themselves. Say hello to O.J. Mayo, Chris Kaman, Elton Brand and Darren Collison.

Actual wisdom: Those names look good in a program and might help Nowitzki spark the NBA's 22nd-ranked O. But getting Big D into the playoffs in the West is another thing. Then again, making the playoffs isn't really the point. All of those expiring-deal holders are just filling cap space until Dallas can go after a superstar free agent (hey, CP3!) next summer. -- M.S.

Basketball Prospectus predictions

Projected record: 43.7-38.3

If Nowitzki scores 22 ppg: 46-36 (8-seed)

If Nowitzki scores 18 ppg: 42-40 (9th in West)

10. New Orleans Hornets | Southwest: 4th

Conventional Wisdom: Eric Gordon for four years and $58 million? Are you guys out of your mind?

Actual wisdom: Of the 32 guards in NBA history to average 18 ppg through their age-23 season (minimum 100 games), only Magic Johnson had a higher true shooting percentage than Gordon's 57.5%. In a league short on shooting guards, efficiency like that is priceless. And there's this: It took almost two months for the Gordon-less Hornets to win five games last season but less than two weeks to win that many more once he returned from a knee injury in April. -- T.H.

Basketball Prospectus predictions

Projected record: 34.3-47.7

If Anthony Davis gets 16/10/2: 40-42 (10th in West)

If Davis averages 8/5/1: 31-51 (10th in West)

11. Portland Trail Blazers | Northwest: 5th

Conventional Wisdom: Coach Nate McMillan and several vets are gone, but LaMarcus Aldridge and re-signed Nic Batum aren't, so the Blazers won't be pushovers. And anything will be better than 2011-12.

Actual wisdom: Progress will come in baby steps. Look past Aldridge and Batum and you'll see as many as five rookies playing regularly. A few could even start. The most precocious of the bunch is No. 6 pick Damian Lillard, who will run the offense from day one. Still, the clock is ticking. Before you know it, Aldridge will be a free agent. They grow up so fast. -- J.H.

Basketball Prospectus predictions

Projected record: 28.6-53.4

If Lillard is the starting PG: 29-53 (11th in West)

If Nolan Smith starts at PG: 27-55 (13th in West)

12. Sacramento Kings | Pacific: 3rd

Conventional Wisdom: The roster bursts with talent, including No. 5 pick Thomas Robinson. Too bad it bursts with inexperience and immaturity too.

Actual wisdom: Scan the Kings roster and -- yes, indeed -- there is one glaring deficiency: leadership. Make no mistake, the best players here can bring it. DeMarcus Cousins was the only player in the West to lead his team in rebounds, blocks and steals, while Evans was one of just five players to average 16.5 points, 4.5 assists and 4.6 rebounds. But all of those numbers vaporize in the face of all of that pouting and poor shot selection. Fear not, good people of Sacramento. These guys will soon be another city's problem. -- C.P.

Basketball Prospectus predictions

Projected record: 28.5-53.5

If Cousins/T-Rob are paired 30 mpg: 29-53 (11th in West)

If they're paired 12 mpg: 29-53 (11th in West)

13. Golden State Warriors | Pacific: 4th

Conventional wisdom: When you've been to the playoffs once since 1994, each season begins with ifs. So if Andrew Bogut's and Curry's ankles are healed and if rookie Harrison Barnes is ready, the Warriors just might end up playing a little longer than they're used to.

Actual wisdom: To be fair, the Warriors are trying. They landed PG Jarrett Jack (career highs in PER and AST percent in 2011-12) and underrated F Carl Landry. Then there's Klay Thompson, the fourth rookie ever to hit 41 percent of his 3's and 85 percent of his free throws. Too bad the biggest if is: If only they played in the East. -- B.W.

Basketball Prospectus predictions

Projected record: 27.7-54.3

If Monta Ellis were still the SG: 29-53 (11th in West)

If Thompson averages 17/5/3: 29-53 (13th in West)

14. Phoenix Suns | Pacific: 5th

Conventional wisdom: It's hard to picture the Suns sans Steve Nash. It will be even harder to watch.

Actual wisdom: It won't be pretty -- but maybe it won't be as hideous as you think. Goran Dragic hardly will make fans forget Nash, but hopes are pinned to the frontcourt. The Suns landed Beasley and Luis Scola to flank the NBA's most underrated center, Marcin Gortat (15.4 points, 10 boards). Last season, that trio posted an average PER of 17.2. That's 1.9 less than what Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins averaged for the Thunder. -- M.W.

Basketball Prospectus predictions

Projected record: 26.1-55.9

If Nash were still PG: 29-53 (11th in West)

If Dragic gets 12/5/3: 24-58 (14th in West)

15. Houston Rockets | Southwest: 5th

Conventional wisdom: What a mess! No Howard. No go-to guys. No chance.

Actual wisdom: It only seemed as if Houston acquired, traded or released every player in the NBA in an effort to land Howard. In fact, some young talent survived. There is rookie trio Jeremy Lamb, Royce White and Terrence Jones. There is out-of-nowhere young guns Chandler Parsons and Lin. There is hope. What there's not is a frontcourt that can score, or a shot at competing in the West this season. The upside: GM Daryl Morey gets one more chance at the lottery. -- T.L.

Basketball Prospectus predictions

Projected record: 18.2-63.8

If Lin averages 20/8/4: 22-60 (15th in West)

If Kyle Lowry were still PG: 19-63 (15th in West)

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MaceCase · October 18, 2012

Should Dol be working on photoshopping Josh's head onto Sally Field?

TheNorthCydeRises · October 18, 2012

SMH.The stat geek sites need to stop. If they're not going to properly look at how new players may play on a new team, instead of just transferring their numbers from their old team to their new team, you can't even take this serious. The Pacers may be the most solid top to bottom team in the conference, yet they're going to finish 8th? Knicks finish ahead of the Celtics? Lakers the 4th best team in the West? Not even going to talk about us at #2.

macdaddy · October 18, 2012

Wait, what? So this is projecting the Hawks to be 2nd in the east? Cool. Of course they have the Nuggets being 1st in the west and Minny being 3rd (ahead of the lakers). Can't wait to start playing some games man. If we finish second in the east with this squad I'm going to gold plate my Ferry statue.

ATLSmith · October 18, 2012

2nd seed? Mother of god... Last year we weren't even predicted to make the post season.Who over at ESPN are the Hawks taking to dinner?

AHF · October 18, 2012

If these were betting over/unders, I would be my house against Minnesota finishing with fewer than 58 wins.

PSSSHHHRRR87 · October 18, 2012

It's funny, but it is nice to get some love from ESPN and not to be the butt of their jokes anymore. I think a more realistic prediction is 4-6th in the East behind Miami, Indiana, and Boston. Our top competitors for seeding will be Brooklyn, New York, and Chicago.

If these were betting over/unders, I would be my house against Minnesota finishing with fewer than 58 wins.

Especially with Kevin Love being out the first month of the season with that broken hand of his. Might be a good bet to make...

lethalweapon3 · October 18, 2012

And courtesy of J-Ho, no less!Hawks-Nuggets NBA finals, let's get it!!!! lol The media and blogosphere would go on strike!~lw3

Buzzard · October 18, 2012

It's funny, but it is nice to get some love from ESPN and not to be the butt of their jokes anymore. I think a more realistic prediction is 4-6th in the East behind Miami, Indiana, and Boston. Our top competitors for seeding will be Brooklyn, New York, and Chicago. Especially with Kevin Love being out the first month of the season with that broken hand of his. Might be a good bet to make...

I like Philly a lot. Bynum is the 2nd or 3rd best pure center in the league. He stays healthy, and no one will want to face them in the playoffs. Them and Indy are the two most balanced teams inside and out in the East.

GameTime · October 18, 2012

2nd seed? Mother of god... Last year we weren't even predicted to make the post season. Who over at ESPN are the Hawks taking to dinner?

Nets 7th seed. ESPN must hate Joe.

Buzzard · October 18, 2012

I love the fact they have us projected this high. We added scorers to easily replace JJ. Now we just have to see how the D holds up. We should play fast, fun, and furious.

Dnice · October 18, 2012

I heard not long ago, on Van Pelt's show, someone from the mag and they said there were some suprizes on the projections.

TheNorthCydeRises · October 18, 2012

I love the fact they have us projected this high. We added scorers to easily replace JJ. Now we just have to see how the D holds up. We should play fast, fun, and furious.

So instead of losing 99 - 92 to good teams . . . we'll lose 109 - 102 to good teams. I guess that's the excitement people want I guess.

capstone21 · October 18, 2012

I think the big thing that is missing is that people are not realizing how much we are losing from the defensive side (with JJ and Marvin being gone). We suddenly have an extremely undersized backcourt that will potentially get lit up on a nightly basis. Also, JJ was isolated but he also took on the double teams ... Horford and Josh will get more focus from opposing teams defense (something they never really had to deal with before). It will be interesting to see how that works. Also, Teague has not shown me that he is a playmaker and this year he will need to be with JJ gone. If we can adapt then we have a chance to be successful. We definitely have much better outside shooting this year.

Buzzard · October 18, 2012

So instead of losing 99 - 92 to good teams . . . we'll lose 109 - 102 to good teams. I guess that's the excitement people want I guess.

In general casual fans want a show. So yes, losing 109 - 102, will sell more tickets. I don't think we are anymore built for a championship now than we were last season. The east could be getting weaker, or teams like Indy and Philly really grow up into contenders. Have to see as the season unfolds, but I think this group of panelist see the east as being weaker this season.

Plainview1981 · October 18, 2012

This story appears in ESPN The Magazine's Oct. 29 NBA Preview. Subscribe today!

Last season, LeBron James led the Heat to the NBA title by means of a full-on half-court makeover: fewer long-range jumpers + more low-post play = greater efficiency = better team. But what if every team had an impact player who completed a similar transformation? We asked Kirk Goldsberry, creator of CourtVision Analytics, to identify the star on each franchise most in need of a LeBron-style makeover and to offer a cure for what ails that player's game. Then, since two eggheads are always better than one, we had the geniuses at Basketball Prospectus project each NBA team's season through simulations of every game. The consensus? A Heat-Nuggets Finals. The winner? Let's just say, not one, not two ...

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1. Miami Heat | Southeast: 1st

Conventional wisdom That banner in the rafters will announce that the King has shed his can't-win-the-big-one rep. His Big Three mates? Still plenty young enough. Yep, it's all going to plan -- and there's nothing any other team can do about it.

Actual wisdom Don't save a spot on the Biscayne Boulevard parade route just yet. The Heat might look stronger with the signings of D-stretching sharpshooters Ray Allen (career 40 percent from three) and Rashard Lewis (39 percent), but health and durability issues lurk. Dwyane Wade, Bosh, Mike Miller and Allen all had surgery or some significant rehab this offseason. And managing minutes, egos and title-or-bust expectations won't get easier for coach Erik Spoelstra. -- Michael Wallace
Basketball Prospectus predictions
Projected record: 60.7-21.3
If LBJ has a PER of 31: 61-21 (1-seed)
If LBJ has a PER of 27: 55-27 (1-seed)

2. Atlanta Hawks | Southeast: 2nd

Conventional Wisdom Sure, by trading six-time All-Star Joe Johnson, new GM Danny Ferry tidied up the cap and readied the Hawks for a down-the-road free agent spree. Short term, though, the team has taken a big step back.

Actual wisdom Salary dump? What salary dump? Atlanta inked a cheaper high-scoring playmaker in Lou Williams. He and Jeff Teague will stay busy finding new hires Kyle Korver and Anthony Morrow on the perimeter and Smith and a fully healed Al Horford (career 18.1 PER) in transition. All of those producers mean more points for the Hawks than their opponents -- and what some folks might consider a surprisingly high seed in the postseason. -- John Hollinger
Basketball Prospectus predictions
Projected record: 50.5-31.5
If Horford plays 82 games: 52-30 (2-seed)
If Horford plays 11 games: 43-39 (8-seed)

3. New York Knicks | Atlantic: 1st

Conventional wisdom The Knicks have added a fantasy team of useful vets, making them as deep as anyone in the East -- and a lock to win their first playoff series since 2000.

Actual wisdom Like a recurring nightmare, New York has imported a few more shopworn names and crossed its fingers. Maybe the geezers help grab a couple of extra wins; more likely, they take turns propping each other up right before their hearts give out. Still, this dream actually will end differently if Carmelo and Amar'e figure out how to share the ball (the Knicks were outscored by almost four points per 100 possessions when the duo were on the court together last season). -- Bradford Doolittle
Basketball Prospectus predictions
Projected record: 49.4-32.6
If Anthony shoots 49 percent: 53-29 (2-seed)
If Anthony shoots 43 percent: 48-34 (4-seed)

4. Boston Celtics | Atlantic: 2nd

Conventional wisdom Only a crazy person would pick a team that was old four years ago, then replaced Ray Allen with a sprinkle of has-beens and never-will-bes.

Actual wisdom Only a slightly less crazy person would bet against them. One of those replacements is seasoned gunner Jason Terry (career 38 percent 3-point shooter), and he'll likely jump-start that 25th-ranked offense. Also, last we checked, Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce were still elite defenders -- tying career lows in defensive rating last season (94 and 99, respectively). Don't be fooled: A Big Three lives on in Beantown; now it just features a locked-in Rondo (career AST percent of 40). And it still matches up with any team. -- Henry Abbott
Basketball Prospectus predictions
Projected record: 48.9-33.1
If Rondo has a TS percent of 54: 51-31 (2-seed)
If Rondo has a TS percent of 47: 47-35 (6-seed)

5. Philadelphia 76ers | Atlantic: 3rd

Conventional wisdom Andrew Bynum adds an interior presence (career ORtg: 116) to a team that barely can recall what it's like to have one. Last season's playoff run was surprising; this season's won't be.

Actual wisdom The Sixers seem to have all the answers: 1) a solid trio of bigs -- Bynum, Spencer Hawes and Lavoy Allen -- who can score and protect the paint; 2) a ripening young backcourt in Jrue Holiday and Turner; and 3) a team D that ranked third in 2011-12. Well, most of the answers anyway: They still haven't figured out how to hang with Miami. -- Chris Broussard
Basketball Prospectus predictions
Projected record: 47.5-34.5
With new bigs (Bynum/Hawes/Turner): 48-34 (5-seed)
With old bigs (Hawes/Brand/Iguodala): 46-36 (6-seed)

6. Chicago Bulls | Central: 1st

Conventional wisdom The Bulls will struggle to stay afloat as they await the return of Derrick Rose, whose knee will keep him in street clothes for months.

Actual wisdom Hey, "they" got one right -- but for the wrong reasons. Rose is an A-lister for sure, but look it up: The Bulls were actually 18-9 last season without their MVP. The team was buoyed by the Bench Mob -- John Lucas III, Kyle Korver and Omer Asik, with Asik ranking in the 96th percentile in defensive points per possession. Problem is, all three were thrown overboard this summer. SOS. -- Tom Haberstroh
Basketball Prospectus predictions
Projected record: 47-35
If Rose plays 30 games: 49-33 (4-seed)
If Rose misses entire season: 42-40 (8-seed)

7. Brooklyn Nets | Atlantic: 4th

Conventional wisdom The Nets appeared to remake their team, bringing in All-Star swingman Johnson and his 18.8 ppg to form a prolific backcourt with the newly re-signed Deron Williams.

Actual wisdom Almost landing Dwight Howard is not actually landing Dwight Howard. You could do worse than Brook Lopez as your Plan B, but unless the seven-footer finds the religion of the boards (6 rpg in '10-11), the Nets won't look as strong on the court as they do on paper. And on paper, anything less than a 7-seed should be viewed as failure. -- C.B.
Basketball Prospectus predictions
Projected record: 44.4-37.6
If Lopez averages 9 rpg: 46-36 (7-seed)
If Lopez averages 4 rpg: 41-41 (8-seed)

8. Indiana Pacers | Central: 2nd

Conventional wisdom After locking up the key players from last season's spunky run, the Pacers are poised to fill the gap at the top of the Eastern Conference caused by Derrick Rose's injury.

Actual wisdom Last season's starting five was dominant. Know what else it was? Improbably healthy. Paul George, David West, Granger, Darren Collison and Roy Hibbert played 1,000 minutes together -- or 253 more than any other five NBA teammates spent as a unit. Hope they all took it easy this summer. Indiana did little to overhaul its weak bench, so the starters will have to work overtime again. Counting on a repeat of a statistical anomaly is no way to game-plan. -- Beckley Mason
Basketball Prospectus predictions
Projected record: 44.4-37.6
If Granger scores 25.8 ppg: 51-31 (2-seed)
If Granger scores 18.7 ppg: 46-36 (7-seed)

9. Toronto Raptors | Atlantic: 5th

Conventional wisdom The Raptors are deeper and stronger defensively than they've been in years, putting them in the mix for a bottom-half playoff spot.

Actual wisdom Deeper isn't enough. Lock up Bargnani and new point guard Kyle Lowry and who puts the ball in the hole? Toronto was 29th in offensive rating last year. There is, of course, vague hope in youth: Landry Fields, Jonas Valanciunas and Terrence Ross will keep the Raptors in most games. But if they keep the team in the playoff hunt, it says more about the other conference also-rans than it does about this one. -- Tim Legler
Basketball Prospectus predictions
Projected record: 40.6-41.4
If Lowry is the PG: 40-42 (9th in East)
If Jose Calderon is the PG: 37-45 (9th in East)

10. Milwaukee Bucks | Central: 3rd

Conventional wisdom The Bucks don't care; they've made the playoffs just seven times in 20 years. The fans don't care; they've stopped showing up. Why should anyone care? Well, Ellis is fun to watch.

Actual wisdom Ellis is fun to watch, but there's more to see in Milwaukee. Brandon Jennings (19.1 ppg, 5.5 apg) gives this team another Iverson-type live wire, and if F Ersan Ilyasova (career-high 20.5 PER in 2011-12) proves that last season wasn't a fluke (a previous PER high of 15.7), attention -- actual attention -- will have to be paid in Milwaukee. -- H.A.
Basketball Prospectus predictions
Projected record: 37.1-44.9
If Ellis shoots 53 percent: 43-39 (9th in East)
If Ellis shoots 42 percent: 36-46 (10th in East)

11. Cleveland Cavaliers | Central: 4th

Conventional wisdom They're too young. With 10 players with no more than two years of experience, the Cavs need another year before talk of the playoffs sounds like anything other than childish blather.

Actual wisdom These guys are growing up fast. He might be just 20, but last season's top rookie, Irving, played like he's been doing it for years: In crunch time, Irving shot 54 percent from the field, 67 percent from three and 89 percent from the line. Add budding star Tristan Thompson and dynamic first-year man Dion Waiters and the Cavs are much closer than you think. -- Brian Windhorst
Basketball Prospectus predictions
Projected record: 29.5-52.5
If Irving gets 25/10: 35-47 (11th in East)
If Irving gets 19/5: 22-60 (14th in East)

12. Detroit Pistons | Central: 5th

Conventional wisdom The Pistons, who haven't won more than 30 games in a season since 2008-09, have mired themselves in a youth movement.

Actual wisdom Please don't shoot the hometown messenger, but it's true -- this rebuild could take some time. Take heart, Motor City: It'll be worth the wait. Big man Greg Monroe, with his 15/10 and 22 PER, is a franchise cornerstone. Sophomore PG Knight, who shot 38 percent from three, will push the tempo. And No. 9 pick Andre Drummond will team with Monroe to form a frontcourt tandem that someday might remind Pistons fans of those pesky Bad Boys. Someday. -- Jalen Rose
Basketball Prospectus predictions
Projected record: 27.1-54.9
If Drummond averages 16 ppg and 12 rpg: 40-42 (9th in East)
If Drummond averages 8 ppg and 6 rpg: 29-53 (12th in East)

13. Washington Wizards | Southeast: 3rd

Conventional wisdom Purging bad attitudes and worse contracts has an upside, but it has left the Wizards with a raw roster (eight players with fewer than three years of experience). And Wall isn't ready to lead it.

Actual wisdom With vets Trevor Ariza and Nene flanking Emeka Okafor, personal responsibility has come to DC. The Wizards won eight of their final 10 last spring, with Wall shooting less, passing more and finishing as one of three players (CP3 and D-Will) to average 16/8. In an infinite universe, there are some worlds in which the Wizards actually make the playoffs. -- J.A. Adande
Basketball Prospectus predictions
Projected record: 24.1-57.9
If Wall shoots 48 percent: 27-55 (12th in East)
If Wall shoots 42 percent: 24-58 (13th in East)

14. Orlando Magic | Southeast: 4th

Conventional wisdom With one finger snap (and many calls from the 213 area code; hello, is Dwight there?), the Magic conjured an impressive disappearing act. Poof! A contender goes up in a puff of smoke.

Actual wisdom Hard to disagree here. Until last season, Stan Van Gundy's team always boasted a top-five D and was among the NBA leaders in 3's, feats assumed to be mutually exclusive. Now O-Town is light the NBA's top defender, two snipers (Chris Duhon, Jason Richardson) and the coach who made it work. If the Magic escape the lottery, it won't be a neat trick. It'll be a miracle. -- B.M.
Basketball Prospectus predictions
Projected record: 23.5-58.5
If Howard were still the center: 35-47 (11th in East)
If Glen Davis plays center: 24-58 (14th in East)

15. Charlotte Bobcats | Southeast: 5th

Conventional wisdom After logging the NBA's worst winning percentage ever, the Bobcats have nowhere to go but up. And c'mon, Gerald Henderson was their best player last year, so how hard could that be?

Actual wisdom Pretty hard. The Bobcats were so much worse than every other team -- last in offensive and defensive rating -- that they're facing another year in the NBA's basement. At least plugging in rookie finisher Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and PG Ramon Sessions (and his career ORtg of 108) will nudge the bunch of slackers who averaged just 87 ppg last season. -- Marc Stein
Basketball Prospectus predictions
Projected record: 16.5-65.5
If Kidd-Gilchrist averages 15 ppg, 6 rpg: 21-61 (15th in East)
If Kidd-Gilchrist averages 6 ppg, 4 rpg: 15-67 (15th in East)

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1. Denver Nuggets | Northwest: 1st

Conventional Wisdom: The Nuggets will always be fun to watch, but c'mon, there's no way these guys are legit contenders. Think about it: When was the last time a team won it all without a single bona fide star? No further questions.

Actual wisdom: Denver has no big scorers, it's true, but stars aren't built on points alone. There's a reason Iguodala is an Olympic gold medalist. He's a defensive straitjacket who happens to be able to beat you offensively in lots of ways: LeBron James was the only other NBAer last season to average at least 12, 5 and 5. And no one held opponents to a lower PER than Iggy did (8.7). Plop him in Denver and what do you get? The likely top seed in the West. -- T.H.
Basketball Prospectus predictions
Projected record: 58.2-23.8
If Iguodala averages 12/6/6: 59-23 (1-seed)
If Denver hadn't acquired Iggy: 55-27 (5-seed)

2. Oklahoma City Thunder | Northwest: 2nd

Conventional Wisdom: The Thunder arrived in 2011-12, going 47-19 in the regular season and reaching the NBA Finals. Still, they can't compete with the reloaded and experienced Lakers.

Actual wisdom: Compete with the Lakers? OKC might very well lap them. The average age of the Thunder's starting lineup is still seven -- seven! -- years younger than the Lakers'. And this team is nothing if not battle-hardened. In the past two seasons, the Thunder have played 37 postseason games, more than any other Western Conference team. Plus, they have the kryptonite for Superman. Dwight Howard has scored fewer than 20 points in seven of 13 playoff games against Kendrick Perkins. -- J.A.A.
Basketball Prospectus predictions
Projected record: 58.1-23.9
If Russell Westbrook takes 15 shots/game: 59-23 (1-seed)
If Westbrook takes 20 shots/game: 58-24 (2-seed)

3. Minnesota Timberwolves | Northwest: 3rd

Conventional Wisdom: Minnesota is on the upswing, but let's not get ahead of ourselves -- at least until Ricky Rubio is out of street clothes.

Actual wisdom: Remember the Thunder! Is it heresy to think this team can be the next OKC, suddenly emerging from the NBA's netherworld to wreak havoc? Granted, Minny hasn't made the playoffs since 2004 and hasn't broken 30 wins since '06-07. But even without Rubio, the Wolves are deeper than ever. As long as Love, the league's second-best Kevin, continues to pack his own kind of MVP stat line, they will be fine. And if out-of-mothballs Brandon Roy and Andrei Kirilenko have something to bolster the 25th-ranked D, Minnesota will be way better than that. -- B.D.
Basketball Prospectus predictions
Projected record: 57.9-24.1
If Rubio plays 60 games: 58-24 (2-seed)
If Rubio plays 20 games: 56-26 (5-seed)

4. Los Angeles Lakers | Pacific: 1st

Conventional Wisdom: Dwight Howard! Steve Nash! Kobe Bryant! Pau Gasol! How can the Lakers not be on their way to another title?

Actual wisdom: The roster is definitely stacked at the top, but then what? The bench remains a cobbled-together afterthought. Certain teams can get away with no reinforcements, but not this one: Bryant, Gasol, Nash, Metta World Peace & they're all on the wrong side of their career bell curves. Worse, Kobe is not gliding gently into his golden years. Last season, he posted the lowest true shooting percentage and second-highest usage rate of his career. What good is an A-list core if one of its members refuses to blend into the crowd? -- B.M.
Basketball Prospectus predictions
Projected record: 57.5-24.5
If Howard plays 60 games: 56-26 (5-seed)
If Howard plays 20 games: 49-33 (6-seed)

5. San Antonio Spurs | Southwest: 1st

Conventional Wisdom: Credit the Spurs for trying something different last season, revving up to the seventh-fastest pace in the league. But you can't outrace the clock. San Antonio is old and obsolete.

Actual wisdom: The Spurs are fresher than you think (see page 79). Six of their top seven scorers were 30 or younger, and those six -- Parker, Kawhi Leonard, Tiago Splitter, DeJuan Blair, Danny Green and Gary Neal -- had an average PER of 17.7. As Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili age out, the Spurs are building on the fly. Besides, you want to bet against Coach Pop? -- J.A.A.
Basketball Prospectus predictions
Projected record: 55.9-26.1
If Duncan plays 30 mpg: 56-26 (5-seed)
If Duncan plays 24 mpg: 56-26 (5-seed)

6. Los Angeles Clippers | Pacific: 2nd

Conventional Wisdom: As much as it pains the world to say it, some savvy offseason moves confirm that Donald Sterling's team might actually have a clue. Doesn't hurt that it has Chris Paul and Griffin too.

Actual wisdom: It's true. Call it Keeping Up With the Kupchaks. The O is a portrait of efficiency, with the NBA's fourth-best ORtg. And when the D showed cracks, LA grabbed Grant Hill (who defended three positions in Phoenix, holding each to PERs under 13) and Lamar Odom (who hasn't had a DRtg above 104 since '07). Smart, right? Yeah, we can't explain it either. -- Chris Palmer
Basketball Prospectus predictions
Projected record: 51.6-30.4
If Paul has a PER of 30: 59-23 (1-seed)
If Paul has a PER of 22: 48-34 (6-seed)

7. Utah Jazz | Northwest: 4th

Conventional Wisdom: Power lifters Al Jefferson and Millsap are enough to lug the Jazz to another winning record -- and another early postseason exit.

Actual wisdom: What's the point? Utah's highest-paid and best players are entering their contract years, and nobody thinks the Jazz can make a real run in the West, so now is as good a time as any to rethink things. Still, there's no need for a wholesale renovation. Young forwards Derrick Favors and Jeremy Evans and center Enes Kanter make it easy to foresee a world without Jefferson or Millsap. -- B.D.
Basketball Prospectus predictions
Projected record: 46.7-35.3
If Millsap plays 35 mpg, Jefferson 0: 46-36 (7-seed)
If Jefferson plays 35 mpg, Millsap 0: 46-36 (7-seed)

8. Memphis Grizzlies | Southwest: 2nd

Conventional Wisdom: Go ahead and admire Memphis' grit, but the team didn't really progress last season and got no stronger over the summer. In fact, it might have gotten weaker, losing O.J. Mayo. How can the Grizzlies possibly hang in the West?

Actual wisdom: They can't. Although it left quite an impression, it's going on two years since Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph shocked the Spurs in the playoffs. Those two aren't getting any younger -- the 31-year-old Randolph in particular figures to age badly -- and not even Gay can change that. Time to face facts: The Grizzlies aren't the giant killers they had us believing they could be. Fact is, they went 2-9 against the Spurs, Thunder and Lakers last season. -- H.A.
Basketball Prospectus predictions
Projected record: 45.7-36.3
If Randolph plays 75 games: 47-35 (7-seed)
If Randolph plays 28 games: 41-41 (9th in West)

9. Dallas Mavericks | Southwest: 3rd

Conventional Wisdom: Considering the Mavs refused to bring in anyone on more than a one-year deal, they did well for themselves. Say hello to O.J. Mayo, Chris Kaman, Elton Brand and Darren Collison.

Actual wisdom: Those names look good in a program and might help Nowitzki spark the NBA's 22nd-ranked O. But getting Big D into the playoffs in the West is another thing. Then again, making the playoffs isn't really the point. All of those expiring-deal holders are just filling cap space until Dallas can go after a superstar free agent (hey, CP3!) next summer. -- M.S.
Basketball Prospectus predictions
Projected record: 43.7-38.3
If Nowitzki scores 22 ppg: 46-36 (8-seed)
If Nowitzki scores 18 ppg: 42-40 (9th in West)

10. New Orleans Hornets | Southwest: 4th

Conventional Wisdom: Eric Gordon for four years and $58 million? Are you guys out of your mind?

Actual wisdom: Of the 32 guards in NBA history to average 18 ppg through their age-23 season (minimum 100 games), only Magic Johnson had a higher true shooting percentage than Gordon's 57.5%. In a league short on shooting guards, efficiency like that is priceless. And there's this: It took almost two months for the Gordon-less Hornets to win five games last season but less than two weeks to win that many more once he returned from a knee injury in April. -- T.H.
Basketball Prospectus predictions
Projected record: 34.3-47.7
If Anthony Davis gets 16/10/2: 40-42 (10th in West)
If Davis averages 8/5/1: 31-51 (10th in West)

11. Portland Trail Blazers | Northwest: 5th

Conventional Wisdom: Coach Nate McMillan and several vets are gone, but LaMarcus Aldridge and re-signed Nic Batum aren't, so the Blazers won't be pushovers. And anything will be better than 2011-12.

Actual wisdom: Progress will come in baby steps. Look past Aldridge and Batum and you'll see as many as five rookies playing regularly. A few could even start. The most precocious of the bunch is No. 6 pick Damian Lillard, who will run the offense from day one. Still, the clock is ticking. Before you know it, Aldridge will be a free agent. They grow up so fast. -- J.H.
Basketball Prospectus predictions
Projected record: 28.6-53.4
If Lillard is the starting PG: 29-53 (11th in West)
If Nolan Smith starts at PG: 27-55 (13th in West)

12. Sacramento Kings | Pacific: 3rd

Conventional Wisdom: The roster bursts with talent, including No. 5 pick Thomas Robinson. Too bad it bursts with inexperience and immaturity too.

Actual wisdom: Scan the Kings roster and -- yes, indeed -- there is one glaring deficiency: leadership. Make no mistake, the best players here can bring it. DeMarcus Cousins was the only player in the West to lead his team in rebounds, blocks and steals, while Evans was one of just five players to average 16.5 points, 4.5 assists and 4.6 rebounds. But all of those numbers vaporize in the face of all of that pouting and poor shot selection. Fear not, good people of Sacramento. These guys will soon be another city's problem. -- C.P.
Basketball Prospectus predictions
Projected record: 28.5-53.5
If Cousins/T-Rob are paired 30 mpg: 29-53 (11th in West)
If they're paired 12 mpg: 29-53 (11th in West)

13. Golden State Warriors | Pacific: 4th

Conventional wisdom: When you've been to the playoffs once since 1994, each season begins with ifs. So if Andrew Bogut's and Curry's ankles are healed and if rookie Harrison Barnes is ready, the Warriors just might end up playing a little longer than they're used to.

Actual wisdom: To be fair, the Warriors are trying. They landed PG Jarrett Jack (career highs in PER and AST percent in 2011-12) and underrated F Carl Landry. Then there's Klay Thompson, the fourth rookie ever to hit 41 percent of his 3's and 85 percent of his free throws. Too bad the biggest if is: If only they played in the East. -- B.W.
Basketball Prospectus predictions
Projected record: 27.7-54.3
If Monta Ellis were still the SG: 29-53 (11th in West)
If Thompson averages 17/5/3: 29-53 (13th in West)

14. Phoenix Suns | Pacific: 5th

Conventional wisdom: It's hard to picture the Suns sans Steve Nash. It will be even harder to watch.

Actual wisdom: It won't be pretty -- but maybe it won't be as hideous as you think. Goran Dragic hardly will make fans forget Nash, but hopes are pinned to the frontcourt. The Suns landed Beasley and Luis Scola to flank the NBA's most underrated center, Marcin Gortat (15.4 points, 10 boards). Last season, that trio posted an average PER of 17.2. That's 1.9 less than what Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins averaged for the Thunder. -- M.W.
Basketball Prospectus predictions
Projected record: 26.1-55.9
If Nash were still PG: 29-53 (11th in West)
If Dragic gets 12/5/3: 24-58 (14th in West)

15. Houston Rockets | Southwest: 5th

Conventional wisdom: What a mess! No Howard. No go-to guys. No chance.

Actual wisdom: It only seemed as if Houston acquired, traded or released every player in the NBA in an effort to land Howard. In fact, some young talent survived. There is rookie trio Jeremy Lamb, Royce White and Terrence Jones. There is out-of-nowhere young guns Chandler Parsons and Lin. There is hope. What there's not is a frontcourt that can score, or a shot at competing in the West this season. The upside: GM Daryl Morey gets one more chance at the lottery. -- T.L.
Basketball Prospectus predictions
Projected record: 18.2-63.8
If Lin averages 20/8/4: 22-60 (15th in West)
If Kyle Lowry were still PG: 19-63 (15th in West)

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Yeah... I'm not really counting on it playing out this way...

AHF · October 18, 2012

I don't think we are anymore built for a championship now than we were last season.

Not this season for sure. The difference is that we have the ability to build for a championship now whereas the status quo kept us locked in with the "core" absent some trade where we just murder the other team.

The east could be getting weaker, or teams like Indy and Philly really grow up into contenders. Have to see as the season unfolds, but I think this group of panelist see the east as being weaker this season.

I will go ahead and say it. If we are the #2 team in the East, this is a very down year for the East. I don't think that we will be that team but the only teams I see as contenders in the East right now are: 1) Miami, 2) Chicago (and they are worse than last year pre-Rose injury), and 3) Boston. I am not a believer in Atl, NJ, Ind, NY, Phi or anyone else from the East as a contender.

HawkItus · October 18, 2012

imho........the Hawks will likely experience a similiar effect as the Denver Nuggets when they traded away Carmelo. Players will be freed up to accomplish things on offence they never would have been able to with Joe here. The main benefactors I see being Teague and Al. Both of these guys will move up in the pecking order. Both can be much more efficient scorers for the team without Joe. Also, their opportunities will come earlier in the clock allowing them to have a better chance at an effiicient shot. Drew wants the team to push the ball. Josh, Al, and Teague have always run well. Joe was the guy who preferred a halfcourt game. What we know about this team is out the window. Josh and Al have never had the freedom to run and hit the offensive bord the way they do now. We should have good speed in the backcourt and they should be able to get back on defense stopping a lot of the fastbreak action of the past.

WraithSentinel · October 18, 2012

This year Hawks team which hasn't even played one regular season game together seem to be getting more respect then any of our previous playoff teams. lol

hazer · October 18, 2012

This year Hawks team which hasn't even played one regular season game together seem to be getting more respect then any of our previous playoff teams. lol

One word: Danny Ferry

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