Plainview1981 Posted February 10, 2015 Report Share Posted February 10, 2015 Agreed. He is a movement player. But he is streaky and his defense is meh but one of my coworkers his buddies with him so I won't hate. I think O'Neal should be the target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 10, 2015 Report Share Posted February 10, 2015 I think O'Neal should be the target. I heard O'Neal was set to sign with Dallas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 10, 2015 Report Share Posted February 10, 2015 I don't understand the hype for Gary neal. He is an ok shooter, but nothing great... And he adds nothing else. He's kind of a chucker too actually. And an unathletic one at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 10, 2015 Report Share Posted February 10, 2015 I'd rather have Gary Neal if he's bought out. Bud knows his game well from Spurs days also. I'd have a tough time passing on Allen though. That guy is a human machine. He might be 39 years old but his body is 29 years old. He is prolly one of the best conditioned athletes in any sport. I wouldn't be upset with Neal at all but considering the playoff experience of Allen, I'd have to go with him first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurider05 Posted February 11, 2015 Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 How exactly is Ray Allen suppose to help us? I am imagining due to defense he and Korver can't play together for too long. Secondly, Demarre has done nothing to warrant having his minutes cut the same could be said for Dennis, Mike Scott, and Thabo. I know that at this point its just rumors but I am failing to see the purpose of adding Ray. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 11, 2015 Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 I get all that. Ultimately, it's like you seemed to say earlier, there is no single metric that defines the construct. There's always a "yeah-but" that goes with any of this... for instance, you raise that Ray Allen has a consistently higher defensive rating above his team's average... but... as I'm sure you're well aware, that can potentially be dinged if we were to find that on average in games where he appeared his opposites accounted in other games versus other teams for more of the offense than when playing the Heat or Celtics or Sonics or Bucks. Similarly, you cite the league-wide defensive efficiency average for a given year, and yes, that gives us better context than just Allen's number itself, but a still better context than that would be gleaned from knowing the defensive efficiency by position for each given year. It's all largely a matter of just how much time one wants to pour into the research to get to what is... in their subjective view... the most objective conclusion possible. I'm comfortable with my intellectual honesty in saying you could be right in concluding he's a below average defender, yet the numbers I reviewed so far don't point particularly strongly, if at all, in that direction... again, to my own surpriseI don't really care to put in much effort into this post, so I'll sound like an ass, but you are writing in a tone/manner that suggests you have knowledge of defensive rating. But from someone who knows how defensive rating is calculated, you are talking straight out of your ass. The biggest indicator of this is your claim:"for instance, you raise that Ray Allen has a consistently higher defensive rating above his team's average... but... as I'm sure you're well aware, that can potentially be dinged if we were to find that on average in games where he appeared his opposites accounted in other games versus other teams for more of the offense than when playing the Heat or Celtics or Sonics or Bucks."That is hard to read and wrong. Defensive rating has no bearing on multicollinearity issues that may arise from a backup's quality (that is a plus-minus issue). It has nothing to do with backups or who Ray Allen's man was on the opposite team. A Team Defensive Rating is how the entire Opponent performs. I can see where you think that defensive rating is about how Ray Allen's man performed when he was on him during a game and then averaged out for a season, but no. Take some time and learn when you're referencing if you want to make a claim about the performance of a player. You took a simple average over a few years on basketball-reference.com without adjusting for league play or minutes played and went with your gut in terms of what a "good" defensive rating might be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benhillboy Posted February 11, 2015 Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 I'm missing the same thing and Ray Ray is one of my All Time Favs. We win with defense and conditioning, not exactly the calling cards of a 39 YO who's never sniffed an All Defense Team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Premium Member sturt Posted February 11, 2015 Premium Member Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 (edited) I don't really care to put in much effort into this post, so I'll sound like an ass, but you are writing in a tone/manner that suggests you have knowledge of defensive rating. But from someone who knows how defensive rating is calculated, you are talking straight out of your ass. The biggest indicator of this is your claim: "for instance, you raise that Ray Allen has a consistently higher defensive rating above his team's average... but... as I'm sure you're well aware, that can potentially be dinged if we were to find that on average in games where he appeared his opposites accounted in other games versus other teams for more of the offense than when playing the Heat or Celtics or Sonics or Bucks." That is hard to read and wrong. Defensive rating has no bearing on multicollinearity issues that may arise from a backup's quality (that is a plus-minus issue). It has nothing to do with backups or who Ray Allen's man was on the opposite team. A Team Defensive Rating is how the entire Opponent performs. I can see where you think that defensive rating is about how Ray Allen's man performed when he was on him during a game and then averaged out for a season, but no. Take some time and learn when you're referencing if you want to make a claim about the performance of a player. You took a simple average over a few years on basketball-reference.com without adjusting for league play or minutes played and went with your gut in terms of what a "good" defensive rating might be. A few thoughts... I too have limited interest in pursuing this very far, and while I never mind being corrected on something, I can sometimes feel like the correction presume something either about my sincerity or my intelligence or both such that I need to kinda respond, if just a little. First, I agree I haven't bothered to study the math involved with rendering the defensive rating. Until tonight, I hadn't even looked at it. So, on that much, you're correct. Second, as I re-read the part you called "hard to read," I get why you say that, and accept the criticism. The rest of what you said falls short of truth, though. And I genuinely like you, so I'm not particularly excited about correcting you. First, in general, the point made is that one can slice and dice data in several ways, and still criticize that it wasn't sliced and diced in yet another way that might impart light from a whole other direction. In this case, I just showed even your assertion that it needs to be analyzed according to that set of variables failed to consider how it might be analyzed even closer by focusing on position averages. Then... one could further say, "Yeah, but how much did the team play zone instead of man-to-man?"... I mean, again, you said it in so many words yourself... there is no single construct... all of it is worthy of consideration, and some of the data is more meaningful than other data. You said: "I can see where you think that defensive rating is about how Ray Allen's man performed when he was on him during a game and then averaged out for a season, but no." Basketball Reference says, "Oliver's... Defensive Rating estimates how many points the player allowed per 100 possessions he individually faced while on the court. Call me a numbskull, an incompetent, whatever, but those two things don't see to be all that different. Perhaps there's some nuance, but at least at some level, they're pretty congruent. Second, you spend time arguing what seems to me to be a little incredible, honestly, if not dogmatic. One of the first rules taught to me in research methods 15 or so years ago was that a good researcher spends some time just staring at the raw data so that s/he has a sense... not a conclusion, but a sense... of what's there. That's all I did, and all I claimed to do. And I don't think I have to apologize for that in the least. I've looked at b-r numbers, and I've looked at 82games numbers, and even a little more than that... and unless someone brings to bear some other data or unless I take a deeper interest in the topic that I decide to start plugging numbers into SPSS--not likely, btw, unless we actually get Allen signed--I'm content with the conclusions I've reached. Edited February 11, 2015 by sturt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LucastheThird Posted February 11, 2015 Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 (edited) I was of the mindset that the Hawks are going after one of the aging bigs that are pondering their buyouts. (Garnett and Stoudemire) But with Coach Bud saying that he was having trouble finding minutes for the bigs we already had, I don't know what to think anymore. I'm just watching and waiting. Edited February 11, 2015 by alejandro09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTB Posted February 11, 2015 Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 Allow me to interject.... Ray Allen will simple take over Thabo's minutes until he returns. Once Thabo returns Ray's minutes will be cut significantly due to need of defense and he will likely become situational player like he was in Miami a lot of the time. Yes we win most games on defense and conditioning AND being efficient on offense. Allen isn't a great defender but he has played on a great team defense which were the 08 celtics...you all remember the 08 celtics don't you? Lol....the Hawks don't leave players on an island they play as a team defensively just like they play as a team offensively with that saud allen will be fine in the spot minutes he play. Last coach bud is coach of the year he knows what he is doing and who he need to put in depending on the situation of the game! Obviously if we need defense allen will be glued to the bench as we have carroll, Thabo, & baze to go to...but when we need a bucket cause carroll, Thabo, baze are off, bud will look to his bench throw in allen...get some buckets out of allen if the ball swings his way...get the team back focused offensively and sit allen back down. Or here's a better one for ya! Those games we need to tie the game up and go into over time or win it at the buzzer...ain't no better lineup than teague, allen (historically clutch), Korver, Sap, Horford...no desrespect to DMC I love the guy but even at an old age I'm putting in Allen to take the last shot to send it to OT or for the win. Allen will simply be a situational player if the Hawks get him. He's not going to get a ton of minutes on any contending team. He's purely a 3pt specialist who's a situational player at this point in his career and he's perfect in case of emergencies! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomFan Posted February 11, 2015 Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 How exactly is Ray Allen suppose to help us? I am imagining due to defense he and Korver can't play together for too long. Because Korver can't play all 48 minutes of every game. Currently when Korver is off the floor, our Offensive efficiency rating drops over 15 points, which is the largest amount of any of our starters. He'd primarily not play with Korver, but be his direct backup. Obviously with Thabo's injury Ray would probably play more minutes than normal until Thabo's return. For the playoff's it would be back to a direct backup role. Also in late game substitutions situations you might see Korver and Allen at the same time for offense, and then DMC, Thabo, or Baze subbed back in when on defense. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 11, 2015 Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 Good Lord man, that's insufferable incompetence on this issue. I'm not the one adding in "but-yeah"s here. I'm interpreting the statistics in such a way that it is reasonable while you have yet to give an accurate description of defensive statistics on Ray Allen. You're not even taking time to understand how a statistic is calculated but instead looking at a description of it and then comparing the description that someone else wrote to my posts. Understand the issue, don't use someone else's phrasing to feign knowledge here. Positional adjustment? Get real, bring the data not the excuses. A "but-yeah" is only a problem when you have no foundation to back it up on, which is exactly your positional adjustment. I've given you the courtesy to provide data on league average rating and team rating. You're essentially counting the number of angels on the head of a pin here (and guess what, the answer is going to be that positional adjustment is going to affect everyone the same from the point of view of evaluating Ray as a defender! It's a moot point!) Take some time to learn the data you're looking at. I think you might have skipped that lesson 15 years ago. YOU'RE NOT LOOKING AT RAW DATA BECAUSE YOU DON'T EVEN KNOW WHAT DEFENSIVE RATING IS! That's essentially been my whole point here to you. I only care about this because you're demonstrably wrong in your statement and have yet to back it up with any empirics. You've misinterpreted the statistic and then have the gall to not learn it and tell me I'm "short of truth." No man, I'm not and you'd be able to get that if you put in the effort to see what the statistic you're referencing actually tells you. It's not an attack on your intelligence or integrity in any way. I find both of those to be high from my experience with you. If there is an attack (I think that's probably poor word choice, but whatever) it's on the effort to actually understand the ONE statistic you're referencing. And maybe you're side stepping the other metrics I have referenced in the issue as well. Ray Allen does not have data that would refute the null that he is a poor defender. And since that is public perception, that should probably be our reference point anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Posted February 11, 2015 Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 Wow where's @JayBirdHawk with the popcorn gif. This is getting good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 11, 2015 Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 (edited) Wow where's @JayBirdHawk with the popcorn gif. This is getting good. No it shouldn't be like that and if this were an argument that did not involve old timey Squawkers then that mentality might lead to name calling. Isn't there a problem with that somewhere or something? But more seriously, I don't see this going to name calling. Maybe a few years ago I might have done that, but this won't go there. I know from experience that @sturt will not do that. And even though my tone is undoubtedly that of an asshole (because I am), I'd hope those delicate nuggets on information I've laid out get picked up and we can all be a bit smarter because of it. Edited February 11, 2015 by hawksfanatic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Premium Member sturt Posted February 11, 2015 Premium Member Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 Good Lord man, that's insufferable incompetence on this issue. I'm not the one adding in "but-yeah"s here. I'm interpreting the statistics in such a way that it is reasonable while you have yet to give an accurate description of defensive statistics on Ray Allen. You're not even taking time to understand how a statistic is calculated but instead looking at a description of it and then comparing the description that someone else wrote to my posts. Understand the issue, don't use someone else's phrasing to feign knowledge here. Positional adjustment? Get real, bring the data not the excuses. A "but-yeah" is only a problem when you have no foundation to back it up on, which is exactly your positional adjustment. I've given you the courtesy to provide data on league average rating and team rating. You're essentially counting the number of angels on the head of a pin here (and guess what, the answer is going to be that positional adjustment is going to affect everyone the same from the point of view of evaluating Ray as a defender! It's a moot point!) Take some time to learn the data you're looking at. I think you might have skipped that lesson 15 years ago. YOU'RE NOT LOOKING AT RAW DATA BECAUSE YOU DON'T EVEN KNOW WHAT DEFENSIVE RATING IS! That's essentially been my whole point here to you. I only care about this because you're demonstrably wrong in your statement and have yet to back it up with any empirics. You've misinterpreted the statistic and then have the gall to not learn it and tell me I'm "short of truth." No man, I'm not and you'd be able to get that if you put in the effort to see what the statistic you're referencing actually tells you. It's not an attack on your intelligence or integrity in any way. I find both of those to be high from my experience with you. If there is an attack (I think that's probably poor word choice, but whatever) it's on the effort to actually understand the ONE statistic you're referencing. And maybe you're side stepping the other metrics I have referenced in the issue as well. Ray Allen does not have data that would refute the null that he is a poor defender. And since that is public perception, that should probably be our reference point anyway. I get the frustration. I've cringed a little when some have taken you on regarding salary cap issues, and it was clear that they hadn't done sufficient homework to be conversant. I hope you will agree that this is a little different than a contract, though, where there are clear objective numbers... years, dollars with various caveats and premises that dictate bottom lines. There is no single bottom line that defines how good a player is on defense. There is room for different conclusions depending on the weight one gives to this number or that number and/or to one's own breadth of observations. These kinds of discussions are so difficult in this format... too much to say, too little disposable time to waste... and that's what it would be, at least until we gain a Ray Allen or someone of similar defensive rep... I'll only say this much, and I really would like to let you have any last word you desire, and let it go, at least for now... I get it why, or at least think I get it why you are so persuaded that I'm not comprehending the fundamentals of the stat, but let me try saying it this way... if defensive rating represents the degree to which the player's team is good at getting stops when he's on the floor... and if we find that the player compares favorably per 100 possessions to others' ratings who play his same position/role... while I get it that, for all we know, he's just the beneficiary of four other guys' exceptional defense, and the other players could just be the victims of having four other guys' horrific defense... intuitively, it is at least reasonable to lean 51% or more to the likelihood that he's doing something right... add to that, particularly so when the player has played for a variety of teams, but his defensive rating doesn't spike up or down in volatile ways... add to that if we also find that the players that Allen defends at his primary position tend to perform at a less-than-average offensive marks for that position... it seems to me at least that we overall have some moderately salient indicators from which we can reach some viable conclusions. Now, yeah, I know... you want me to spend time actually spelling out those numbers that point to my conclusions, and you're not wrong to do so. But I'm just not going to invest that time. It's not that I'm scared of being wrong. Perhaps I am, and if I am, I'll be eager to engage and gain better insight. But for now, I'm just satisfied with what I've seen (... no, technically, I realize it's not "raw data" in the precise way we would use it if we had a stack of surveys or an Excel sheet with measurements. But this not being a scientific journal environment, I perhaps took some liberty with the term that I shouldn't have.) Be assured that if events evolve to motivate me to collect it all in one space, analyze it, and then deduce the same or different conclusions, and arguing with each other what is "right," I'll enjoy doing that at that point. It's just not sufficiently interesting to me at the moment, so please indulge me for now. 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RedDawg#8 Posted February 11, 2015 Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 (edited) Jesus, why get all worked up over a hypothetical signing at this point. If we sign Ray, he will be a Hawk, and I will cheer for him. If he doesnt sign with us then I wont lose any sleep. Its pretty simple guys. I love our squad as is but if the FO see's a potential upgrade by bringing in any player then I would assume they have gone thru all the analytics and concluded that such a player would be a positive addition and worth taking a chance on. They have access to all the stats and analytics we do but they also have a bigger picture in mind and thats something we wont ever know exactly. Just enjoy the ride guys we may NEVER have another season like this again Edited February 11, 2015 by RedDawg#8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 11, 2015 Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 I get the frustration. I've cringed a little when some have taken you on regarding salary cap issues, and it was clear that they hadn't done sufficient homework to be conversant. I hope you will agree that this is a little different than a contract, though, where there are clear objective numbers... years, dollars with various caveats and premises that dictate bottom lines. There is no single bottom line that defines how good a player is on defense. There is room for different conclusions depending on the weight one gives to this number or that number and/or to one's own breadth of observations. These kinds of discussions are so difficult in this format... too much to say, too little disposable time to waste... and that's what it would be, at least until we gain a Ray Allen or someone of similar defensive rep... I'll only say this much, and I really would like to let you have any last word you desire, and let it go, at least for now...I don't know what it is (and coincidentally it happens with @AHF as well), but I agree with you a whole heck of a lot more often than I disagree. But I don't have the personality to give a "here here!" on substantial issues. So when I do respond, it's generally going to be on something I think I have enough knowledge to contribute to and it's more than likely to disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators macdaddy Posted February 11, 2015 Moderators Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 I like how @Dolfan23 liked the OP 'no to ray' post and @RandomFan 's 'yes to ray' post. Yeah I don't see why if we sign him we are obligated to play him 30 minutes a game. I still think it puts a lot of pressure on the other team if Ray Allen is coming in the game when Korver goes out. I love Baze and Mack but Allen (assuming he can still play) is a fantastic shooter and that's what our offense does. Without Thabo we have 3 wings Korver, Baze, DMC. Whether it's Ray or someone else it would seem we need another wing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Posted February 11, 2015 Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 I like how @Dolfan23 liked the OP 'no to ray' post and @RandomFan 's 'yes to ray' post. Yeah I don't see why if we sign him we are obligated to play him 30 minutes a game. I still think it puts a lot of pressure on the other team if Ray Allen is coming in the game when Korver goes out. I love Baze and Mack but Allen (assuming he can still play) is a fantastic shooter and that's what our offense does. Without Thabo we have 3 wings Korver, Baze, DMC. Whether it's Ray or someone else it would seem we need another wing. Because I'm crazy and like keeping yall on your toes! Seriously though random made a good point about the drop off in offensive efficiency at SG behind Kyle and I didn't realize it was that bad. I'm not crazy about signing Ray but I wouldn't be upset if we did. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Premium Member NineOhTheRino Posted February 11, 2015 Premium Member Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 @Wurider05 and @RandomFan both you guys make great points. I will mull this over then get back with you guys in 15-25 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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