Comparison of adv stats: Performance when we win vs. when we lose

[sturt]

 

[macdaddy]

At first glance it's pretty interesting but then at second glance it basically says that when we win we shoot the ball well and defend well, and when we lose we don't do those things.   

 

Looks to me like we generally win big or lose big.   

[DrReality]

The Hawks are only 10 victories shy of the franchise single-season record of 57 wins, last done in 1993-94.

Amazing

[sturt]

Yep.

 

So, I look at the D-rating when we win, and the O-rating when we lose, and it supports in numbers the theory that even when we're not shooting the ball on a given night, we have the opportunity to be in the game if we play the defense we're capable of playing.

 

Similarly, I look at the D-rating when we lose and the O-rating when we win, and it supports another theory in numbers that if we're playing our lousiest defense, even our best offense isn't going to keep up.

 

Yes, we assist a little better and we rebound defensibly a little better on the nights we win. But the most salient element is far and away our defense.

 

Who knew?

Edited March 3, 2015 by sturt

[sturt]

At first glance it's pretty interesting but then at second glance it basically says that when we win we shoot the ball well and defend well, and when we lose we don't do those things.   

 

Looks to me like we generally win big or lose big.   

 

Ya know... it's stood out to me this season that when we lose, we seem to get blown out... we win the close ones. And at the same time, it's also stood out to me this season that we almost never win a game by 20 or more. I could go look it up, but I think I've already met my research quota for the week... it'll have to wait. :)

[benhillboy]

Well Bud's philosophy on rebohnding as it pertains to this system and group hold true: doesn't make much difference either way. I think all things considered we're an average rebounding team and we can get it done with that.

But am I the only one who thinks Kyle gets more rebounds in the fourth quarter than he gets accounted for? He doesn't get credit for how high he goes to grab them in traffic. He and Thabo I believe are strategically placed late to always be in the paint and on a body when a shot goes up.

Edited March 3, 2015 by benhillboy

[AHF]

The rebounding number that stands out to me is not the rebounding margin.  It is that we capture 74.3% of available defensive rebounds in our wins and only 70.1% of defensive rebounds in our losses.  

[ATLHawks3]

Doesn't Thabo have the best rebounding rate on the team? I feel like we're a much different team with him healthy.

[Guest]

Doesn't Thabo have the best rebounding rate on the team? I feel like we're a much different team with him healthy.

The number of offensive rebounds the Hawks gave up almost doubled when Thabo went down. Edited March 3, 2015 by JayBirdHawk

[AHF]

Doesn't Thabo have the best rebounding rate on the team? I feel like we're a much different team with him healthy.

 

He has the 5th highest TRB% and the 3rd best DRB%.  He is by far our best non-big on the boards.

[Admin]

The rebounding number that stands out to me is not the rebounding margin.  It is that we capture 74.3% of available defensive rebounds in our wins and only 70.1% of defensive rebounds in our losses.  

 

Seems like an effort issue to me vs an inability to rebound at the same rate in wins vs losses.

 

I still don't see rebounding meaning much in the grand scheme of our wins and losses. We've given up at least three individual 20 rebound games to opposing C's this year and I can't recall us doing that before and I believe we've won all of those games. 

[capstone21]

At first glance it's pretty interesting but then at second glance it basically says that when we win we shoot the ball well and defend well, and when we lose we don't do those things.   

 

Looks to me like we generally win big or lose big.   

only 12 loses and two of those were big blowout losses will up that percentage

[Randy]

The one stat that really stands out between wins and losses is PIE.  I never heard of that one, so I looked it up.  Its something like '% of game events (pts, rebounds, etc) player (or team) participated in."  Not clear if that is a "predictive" or "descriptive" stat, but sounds a bit like a measure of hustle plays.  Anyway, its the one that differs the most % wise between wins and losses.   

[benhillboy]

Doesn't Thabo have the best rebounding rate on the team? I feel like we're a much different team with him healthy.

Yeah, he ties up all the loose ends with his length. We give up a couple more drives, a couple more passing lanes, and a couple tipped and 50/50 balls without him. His absence prolongs our lulls and minimizes our runs, the reason we've gone through some horrid stretches even in wins. Luckily Baze is doing his best Thabo impression without the experience. He won't be back a second too soon, I knew assorted defensive stats would dip soon as he went down.

With Bud's Cycle in mind, you can't find a better fit becuase his activity on defense is so crucial to changing ends fluidly. He and Pero are allowed to hit the width side of the glass and airball as much as they want because their contributions outside the stat sheet are tremendous.

Edited March 3, 2015 by benhillboy

[sturt]

Double-digit losses: TOR (2), MIL, CLE and NOP

 

Blow-out (25+) losses: TOR, MIL and CLE

 

Interestingly, we've been able to repay a blow-out to each of those three not all that much later.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

The number of offensive rebounds the Hawks gave up almost doubled when Thabo went down.

But I thought rebounding is insignificant? Thabo is the best rebounding wing in the league on a per 36 min.basus.

Yeah, he ties up all the loose ends with his length. We give up a couple more drives, a couple more passing lanes, and a couple tipped and 50/50 balls without him. His absence prolongs our lulls and minimizes our runs, the reason we've gone through some horrid stretches even in wins. Luckily Baze is doing his best Thabo impression without the experience. He won't be back a second too soon, I knew assorted defensive stats would dip soon as he went down.

With Bud's Cycle in mind, you can't find a better fit becuase his activity on defense is so crucial to changing ends fluidly. He and Pero are allowed to hit the width side of the glass and airball as much as they want because their contributions outside the stat sheet are tremendous.

I'm sorry, but that's simply excuse making for Pero. A guy like Josh Smith was far more impactful than Pero, and this fan base KILLED JOSH for the horrific shots he took. Hell, even Marvin didn't get a pass, and he shot better than both Josh and Pero.

Pero is at his best when he's playing with Teague, Korver and Sefolosha. And that's because they handle all of the production and rebounding. And it's really playing with Thabo that makes Antić look more important than what he really is.

[Guest]

But I thought rebounding is insignificant? Thabo is the best rebounding wing in the league on a per 36 min.basus.

I'm sorry, but that's simply excuse making for Pero. A guy like Josh Smith was far more impactful than Pero, and this fan base KILLED JOSH for the horrific shots he took. Hell, even Marvin didn't get a pass, and he shot better than both Josh and Pero.

Pero is at his best when he's playing with Teague, Korver and Sefolosha. And that's because they handle all of the production and rebounding. And it's really playing with Thabo that makes Antić look more important than what he really is.

I've never said rebounding is insignificant. I said I understand the philosophy of not making offensive rebounding a priority in lieu of getting back on defense. I've said the Hawks not controlling their defensive rebounds and giving the other team 2nd chance points is a problem - ergo the reference to Thabo being out.

Josh got killed because NOBODY wanted him taking those shots, especially when they didn't come within the flow of the offense, like launching bad shots early in the shot clock and killing momentum. Josh had other tools and didn't use them. Pero is doing what Bud asks. Period.

Edited March 4, 2015 by JayBirdHawk

[CrazyEye]

Yep.

 

So, I look at the D-rating when we win, and the O-rating when we lose, and it supports in numbers the theory that even when we're not shooting the ball on a given night, we have the opportunity to be in the game if we play the defense we're capable of playing.

 

Similarly, I look at the D-rating when we lose and the O-rating when we win, and it supports another theory in numbers that if we're playing our lousiest defense, even our best offense isn't going to keep up.

 

Yes, we assist a little better and we rebound defensibly a little better on the nights we win. But the most salient element is far and away our defense.

 

Who knew?

 

hell no, look at the offense Rating wen this is awesome it is easy to defend since the opponent starts the posession with an inbound. Similiar look at the losses, we shooting bad and getting more points point proved.

 

I'll go with macdaddy first reply.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Seems like an effort issue to me vs an inability to rebound at the same rate in wins vs losses.

 

I still don't see rebounding meaning much in the grand scheme of our wins and losses. We've given up at least three individual 20 rebound games to opposing C's this year and I can't recall us doing that before and I believe we've won all of those games. 

 

27 - 1 now, when the Hawks win the defensive rebounding battle.  

 

And we needed it too, especially in that 4th quarter of the Houston game, to make sure that the Rockets were 1 and done on their offensive possessions. Definitely didn't need Josh's misses turning into extra possessions. The Dreb% rate in that quarter was 75%.  Rockets only scored 3 second chance points in that game, which was absolutely huge in that game.

[Admin]

27 - 1 now, when the Hawks win the defensive rebounding battle.  

 

And we needed it too, especially in that 4th quarter of the Houston game, to make sure that the Rockets were 1 and done on their offensive possessions. Definitely didn't need Josh's misses turning into extra possessions. The Dreb% rate in that quarter was 75%.  Rockets only scored 3 second chance points in that game, which was absolutely huge in that game.

 

Oh you're not gonna come out well here, but here goes. The rebounding was not the reason we won. We won because we upped the effort, locked in on D and started hitting shots.

 

Rebounding

At halftime we were +2 in rebounding and down 14 points.

Through 3 quarters we were +4 in rebounding and down 9 points. 

In the 4th quarter we won the rebound battle by a whopping 4. 

 

Shooting %'s

Now, in the 1st half we were out shot 51% to 41%.

In the 3rd quarter we out shot them 48% to 46%.

In the 4th quarter we out shot them 52% to 24%. 

 

Now tell me, which do you think is the real difference here? The enormous shooting % change or the tiny rebound differential? 

 

Game book - http://www.nba.com/data/html/nbacom/2014/gameinfo/20150303/0021400892_Book.pdf